Alabama at Michigan - 2023 Matchup Preview
Alabama logo (#9)Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines(#19)Michigan logo
Monday, January 1st 2024 (5:00 PM EST)
Michigan -2.0 (46.0) (-125)  Open: -2.5 | 45.5
Michigan 27 - Alabama: 20  (CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Pres. by Prudential)

 
Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 34 - 19 (32 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Michigan -9  (SP+ MICH -8)

Projected Score: ALA: 19 - MICH: 28 (48)
MICH Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
ALA Travel: 1755 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Wolverines (15 - 0) (9 - 5 - 1)
Coach Jim Harbaugh (77 - 25)
Avg Score : 36 - 10 (36 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12.8 - 2.2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Alabama's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Alabama vs Middle Tennessee-39.552.0W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Alabama vs Texas-7.053.0L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 Alabama at South Florida-34.061.0W 17 - 3UN
Sat 9/23 Alabama vs Ole Miss-7.056.0W 24 - 10UY
Sat 9/30 Alabama at Mississippi State-16.545.0W 40 - 17OY
Sat 10/7 Alabama at Texas A&M-2.545.0W 26 - 20OY
Sat 10/14 Alabama vs Arkansas-19.045.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/21 Alabama vs Tennessee-8.547.5W 34 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Alabama vs LSU-3.061.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/11 Alabama at Kentucky-10.045.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 11/18 Alabama vs Chattanooga-44.554.5W 66 - 10OY
Sat 11/25 Alabama at Auburn-14.048.0W 27 - 24ON
Sat 12/2 Alabama vs Georgia+5.056.0W 27 - 24UY
Mon 1/1 Alabama vs Michigan+2.046.0L 20 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Michigan's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Michigan vs East Carolina-36.053.5W 30 - 3UN
Sat 9/9 Michigan vs UNLV-38.057.5W 35 - 7UN
Sat 9/16 Michigan vs Bowling Green-40.553.5W 31 - 6UN
Sat 9/23 Michigan vs Rutgers-24.044.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 9/30 Michigan at Nebraska-17.039.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 10/7 Michigan at Minnesota-18.546.0W 52 - 10OY
Sat 10/14 Michigan vs Indiana-33.545.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 10/21 Michigan at Michigan State-25.547.0W 49 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Michigan vs Purdue-32.552.5W 41 - 13ON
Sat 11/11 Michigan at Penn State-4.044.5W 24 - 15UY
Sat 11/18 Michigan at Maryland-17.550.5W 31 - 24ON
Sat 11/25 Michigan vs Ohio State-3.047.0W 30 - 24OY
Sat 12/2 Michigan vs Iowa-23.535.0W 26 - 0UY
Mon 1/1 Michigan vs Alabama-2.046.0W 27 - 20OY
Mon 1/8 Michigan vs Washington-5.555.5W 34 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA#20 (.29)45% (39)3445% (43)3.23 (45)16045% (34)2124.59 (17)#26 (.11)36% (12)1938% (28)34% (6)3.86 (73)45.70.71.3
MICH#11 (.33)50% (7)35.947% (31)3.26 (39)14056% (2)1904.79 (10)#1 (-.01)32% (1)10.432% (4)33% (4)2.37 (1)22.80.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA#44 (.23)45% (34)45% (52)2.75 (112)16945% (31)2224.71 (8)#8 (.05)37% (12)38% (15)37% (19)2.85 (5)66.31.42.1
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Offense143431.845%4.590.7193731602124.357%43%45%45%15%.29
MICH Defense1510.49.632.3%2.371.6 - - - - - 49%50%32%33%21%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Defense14191735.8%3.861.3 - - - - - 48%52%38%34%19%.11
MICH Offense1535.935.750.3%4.790.5183301401904.356%44%47%56%11%.33

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Alabama1428:2518.647%83%5.445.70.71.35.92.8230.6
Michigan1528:2517.747%79%2.522.80.51.64.92.1433.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Offense1457% (18)45% (43)37160.44.330 (21).21 (39)3.23 (45)81% (13)11% (91)0.98 (79)
MICH Defense1549% (50)32% (4) - - - - -.09 (1)2.57 (9)55% (4)12% (13)0.85 (11)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Defense1448% (40)38% (28) - - - - .15 (71)3.13 (74)67% (36)12% (21)1.12 (114)
MICH Offense1556% (25)47% (31)32.9140.24.335 (5).19 (45)3.26 (39)76% (46)7% (7)0.91 (107)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Offense1443% (115)45% (34)13.721.6212.19.815.523 (51)6 (14).44 (20)1.9 (8)31% (50)34% (39).55 (11)4% (6)2.6 (1)
MICH Defense1550% (79)33% (4) - - - - - - 16 (9).09 (7)1.6 (67)36% (19)25% (16).07 (1)9% (3)1.7 (3)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Defense1452% (98)34% (6) - - - - - - 12 (37).11 (9)1.5 (42)35% (29)26% (18).23 (25)7% (37)2.1 (71)
MICH Offense1544% (105)56% (2)15.521189.6912.221 (65)5 (6).55 (5)1.5 (89)28% (11)38% (11).52 (16)4% (12)2 (77)

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 16.78  #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42  #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95  #21
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90%  #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7  #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1  #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 16.78   Michigan: 29.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 23.7   Michigan: 32.1




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 29.405  #1
Michigan's Offense Rating: 24.97  #14
Michigan's Defense Rating: -5.85  #1
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 51  #16
Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 12.80 - 2.20
Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.1  #1
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6  #10
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 7.4  #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.8
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 28
Alabama 19


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Michigan 28
Alabama 23

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Michigan 27
Alabama 21

Total Points: 48
Michigan Scoring
Offense: 35.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.7
Defense: 10.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 9.6

Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 15 - 0
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202412/31Michigan19Alabama13Alabama -16.5Michigan45.5Under
202301/01Michigan27Alabama20Michigan -2.0Michigan46.0Over
201901/01Alabama35Michigan16Alabama -8.5Alabama62.0Under
201209/01Alabama41Michigan14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan221 Overs
Alabama212 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 03 - 02 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 40 - 30 - 10 - 2

Alabama Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023CFP Semifinal Alabama vs Michigan+2.046.0L 20 - 27
2022Sugar Bowl Alabama vs Kansas State-8.058.5W 45 - 20
2021CFP Nat'l Title Alabama vs Georgia+3.053.5L 18 - 33
2021CFP Semifinal Alabama vs Cincinnati-13.057.5W 27 - 6
2020CFP Nat'l Title Alabama vs Ohio State-9.575.0W 52 - 24
2020CFP Semifinal Alabama vs Notre Dame-20.066.0W 31 - 14
2019Citrus Bowl Alabama vs Michigan-8.562.0W 35 - 16
2018CFP Nat'l Title Alabama vs Clemson-5.556.5L 16 - 44
2018CFP Semifinal Alabama vs Oklahoma-14.581.5W 45 - 34
2017CFP Nat'l Title Alabama vs Georgia-3.545.5W 26 - 23
2017CFP Semifinal Alabama vs Clemson-3.546.5W 24 - 6
Michigan Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023CFP Nat'l Title Michigan vs Washington-5.555.5W 34 - 13
2023CFP Semifinal Michigan vs Alabama-2.046.0W 27 - 20
2022CFP Semifinal Michigan vs TCU-8.056.0L 45 - 51
2021CFP Semifinal Michigan vs Georgia+7.547.0L 11 - 34
2019Citrus Bowl Michigan vs Alabama+8.562.0L 16 - 35
2018Peach Bowl Michigan vs Florida-4.051.0L 15 - 41
2017Outback Bowl Michigan vs South Carolina-9.042.5L 19 - 26
  
(#9) ALA at (#1) MICH
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatALAMICH
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #9 #1
SP+SP+ #7 #1
Perf GradeGrade #3 #1
OffenseOff #10 #6
DefenseDef #6 #1
Spec TeamsST #3 #27
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #1 #16
Alabama on Offense
CategoryCat
ALA OffMICH Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #10 #1
SuccessSuc #39 #1
ExplosiveExp #23 #37
PPAPPA #20 #1
PowerPwr #25 #1
SP+SP+ #11 #1
Pts POPPO #17 #1
HavocHav #51 #6
Alabama Run Game
CategoryCat
ALA OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #15 #2
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #4
Run ExplRExp #79 #11
PPAExp #39 #1
Run BlockR Blk #3 -
OL YdsOLY #45 #9
Stuff RateStuff #37 #22
TackleTak -  #2
Alabama Pass Game
CategoryCat
ALA OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #32 #1
Pass SuccessPSuc #34 #4
Pass ExplPExl #8 #67
PPAExp #20 #7
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #43 #3
F7 HavocF7 #91 #13
DB HavocDB #6 #3
Michigan on Offense
CategoryCatMICH OffALA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #6 #6
SuccessSuc #7 #12
ExplosiveExp #106 #87
PPAPPA #11 #26
PowerPwr #14 #21
SP+SP+ #10 #9
Pts POPPO #10 #73
HavocHav #6 #16
Michigan Run Game
CategoryCat
MICH OffALA Def
Run GameRun #51 #10
Run SuccessRSuc #31 #28
Run ExplRExp #107 #114
PPAExp #45 #71
Run BlockR Blk #9 -
OL YdsOLY #39 #74
Stuff RateStuff #6 #108
TackleTak -  #7
Michigan Pass Game
CategoryCatMICH OffALA Def
Pass GamePass #11 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #2 #6
Pass ExplPExl #89 #42
PPAExp #5 #9
Pass Block/RushP Blk #51 #13
F7 HavocF7 #7 #21
DB HavocDB #12 #37
Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'23 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rose Bowl
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 64° - Wind: 10 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Michigan -2.0 (46.0)
Michigan won vs Alabama this year (27-20)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Alabama last year (19-13)
Michigan beat Alabama in 2023 (27-20)

  
ALA's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalen Milroe18728466%283423610.0
Ty Simpson112055%179009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jase McClellan18089084.934
Roydell Williams11156055.048
Jalen Milroe161531123.353
Jamarion Miller4120114.945
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jermaine Burton39798820.568
Isaiah Bond48668413.952
Amari Niblack20327416.439
Kobe Prentice18314217.479

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kevin Steele (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Downs1074003
Deontae Lawson676344
Jihaad Campbell664133
Terrion Arnold6371212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Turner531611131
Chris Braswell4211851
Justin Eboigbe6312741
Deontae Lawson676344
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terrion Arnold6371212
Kool-Aid McKinstry322007
Trey Amos (Tr)121015

MICH's OC Sherrone Moore (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
J.J. McCarthy24033272%29912249.0
Jack Tuttle (Tr)151788%130107.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Corum2581245274.859
Donovan Edwards11949754.246
Kalel Mullings3622216.223
J.J. McCarthy6420233.222
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Roman Wilson487891216.447
Colston Loveland45649414.454
Cornelius Johnson47604112.950
Donovan Edwards3024908.337

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Jesse Minter (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Junior Colson892022
Michael Barrett614352
Ernest Hausmann (Tr)442000
Makari Paige380012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Harrell3010851
Josaiah Stewart (Tr)339632
Derrick Moore346542
Braiden McGregor269573
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mike Sainristil365236
Will Johnson00004
Josh Wallace (Tr)282004