Texas at Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas logo (#8)Texas Longhorns at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - Gainesville, FL  (SEC)

 
Longhorns (2 - 1) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 24 - 10 (7 - 14 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 3.8 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
TEX coming off BYE
FLA coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas -4   (SP+ TEX -7)

Projected Score: TEX: 20 - FLA: 16 (35)
TEX Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TEX Travel: 921 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gators (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 27 - 13 (36 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-40.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma+0
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.5
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-7
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+5
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-11
Sat 11/29 Texas vs Texas A&M-3.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+7.551.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+8
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+6.5
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-6
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+7.5
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+2.5
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State-0.5

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX#130 (-.01)42% (86)2449% (44)3.25 (40)18232% (122)2003.25 (107)#11 (-.09)33% (25)10.335% (38)31% (24)2.58 (38)811.32
FLA#91 (.13)45% (56)2751% (33)3.41 (32)13742% (77)2533.89 (72)#27 (-)32% (18)12.727% (7)38% (55)2.36 (29)53.321
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)49% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)42% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Offense324741.6%3.251.3193831822004.458%41%49%32%10%-.01
FLA Defense312.7932.1%2.361 - - - - - 51%49%27%38%15%-
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Defense310.31433.1%2.582 - - - - - 47%53%35%31%15%-.09
FLA Offense32735.545.5%3.892233911372534.340%59%51%42%16%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas331:391929%42%8.3811.323.31.3035.9
Florida335:2823.340%100%653.3213.30.3030.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Offense358% (23)49% (44)41.7182.34.43 (95).1 (86)3.25 (40)68% (84)6% (16)0.72 (125)
FLA Defense351% (78)27% (7) - - - - -.21 (6)2.01 (11)63% (43)8% (96)0.9 (62)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Defense347% (49)35% (38) - - - - -.19 (8)2.11 (16)45% (17)7% (110)0.44 (2)
FLA Offense340% (125)51% (33)32137.34.31 (127).21 (45)3.41 (32)100% (1)10% (88)0.83 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Offense341% (114)32% (122)16.329.3200.36.812.36 (34)3 (92)-.11 (132)1.5 (78)27% (38)21% (121).13 (111)5% (57)1.8 (100)
FLA Defense349% (68)38% (55) - - - - - - 1 (87).22 (68)1.5 (59)35% (46)20% (27).18 (52)6% (56)2.2 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Defense353% (90)31% (24) - - - - - - 3 (28)- (21)1.2 (14)31% (88)13% (7)-.13 (7)8% (26)1.2 (1)
FLA Offense359% (12)42% (77)27.739.3253.36.49.27 (23)6 (132).13 (107)1.4 (106)30% (60)31% (72).12 (114)6% (92)1.8 (93)

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 29.65 #11
Texas's Offense Rating: 15.74 #50
Texas's Defense Rating: -13.92 #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65% #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #14
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #48
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.9 #1

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 29.65   Florida: 20.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 18.8   Florida: 11.6




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 20.295 #18
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.79 #38
Florida's Defense Rating: -6.20 #7
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #30
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #47
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Texas Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 10.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 14

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 20
Florida 16


Total Points: 35

Florida Scoring
Offense: 27 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.5
Defense: 12.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 9

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09Texas49Florida17TexasTexas -24.5Texas48.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida001 Overs
Texas110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#11) Texas Info
Power Rating: 29.65 #11
Offense Rating: 15.74 #50
Defense Rating: -13.92 #1
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #14
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #48
Defense SP+ Rating: 10.9 #1
Talent Rating: 1074.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65% #6
Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.25 PPO
Good Run Success 49%
Awful Pass Success 32%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 33%
Good in Scoring Position 2.58 PPO
Good Run Def Success 35%
Good Pass Def Success 31%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Texas has lost 1 straight
Texas has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Texas Notes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
(6/6) WRs lost top 2, lots of talent. Top 10 via PFF?
(5/23) Secondary top 3 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
(5/19) Added QB Caldwell (Troy) post spring
(5/19) DL added 5 via portal, TE Endries (Cal) big add
(5/11) Least exp'd OL in SEC, only 1/5 starters back
(5/2) CB Muhammad, S Taaffe both top 10 via PFF

Texas Highlights
Texas has a really good defense (#25)
Texas defense does not give up big plays (#2)
Texas has a good pass defense (#24)
Texas Defensive Line is very good (#16)
Texas Secondary is very good (#26)
Texas defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Texas Deficiencies
Texas Commits a Lot of Penalties (#121)
Texas offense is not Explosive (#132)
Texas offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#107)
Texas pass game is really bad (#122)
Texas offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFLATEX
OverallOver#19#29
OffenseOff#44#66
DefenseDef#15#6
Special TeamsST#61#58
PassingPass#50#56
RushingRush#76#45
Run BlockRBLK#22#59
Pass BlockPBLK#4#54
Route RunningWR Rt#57#74
TacklingTkl#14#24
Run DefenseR Def#3#8
Pass Rush DefPRush#80#5
Coverage DefCov#35#18

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Florida last year (49-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TEX | FLA
Depth Chart: TEX | FLA
Rosters: TEX | FLA
(#18) Florida Info
Power Rating: 20.295 #18
Offense Rating: 17.79 #38
Defense Rating: -6.20 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #30
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.1 #24
Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #12
Expected Record: 4.9 - 7.1

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Good Run Success 51%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 32%
Good in Scoring Position 2.36 PPO
Great Run Def Success 27%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Florida has lost 3 straight
Florida has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Florida Notes
(9/7) Allowed 18 TFL through two games, Off a mess
(8/20) QB2 uncertain, but massive drop off either way
(8/13) Lagway health an issue, missing camp w/ others.
(6/30) DT Banks game wrecker, top 10 PFF w/ DE Sapp
(6/6) DL a top 5 unit via PFF, front line + depth
(6/6) OL 2 starters, 2 w/ exp. PFF rates at top 5 OL
(5/23) Safety duo of Thorton & Castell a top unit in CFB
(5/6) Proj starting CB D Johnson arrested (serious)
(5/1) Fr WR D Wilson dominated spring ball, will play
(4/4) OT Jake Slaughter the top T via PFF

Florida Highlights
Florida has a really good defense (#18)
Florida defense is really good in red zone (#29)
Florida has a good run defense (#7)
Florida Defensive Line is very good (#11)

Florida Deficiencies
Florida has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Florida throws a Lot of Interceptions (#132)
Florida offense is not Explosive (#103)
Florida does not Sack the QB (#130)


  
Texas's OC Kyle Flood
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning478555%579636.8
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)2367%22007.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Arch Manning2311234.920
CJ Baxter Jr.2411004.618
Jerrick Gibson2510204.114
Tre Wisner168005.013
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Parker Livingstone8198324.883
Jack Endries (Tr)7106215.136
Ryan Wingo997110.828
DeAndre Moore Jr.63606.017

View Texas's Full Roster
Texas's DC Pete Kwiatkowski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Taaffe230000
Liona Lefau202001
Anthony Hill Jr.150000
Ty'Anthony Smith121000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maraad Watson (Tr)92200
Zina Umeozulu31110
Hero Kanu (Tr)72131
Colin Simmons51120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malik Muhammad80002
Xavier Filsaime00001
Liona Lefau202001

Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway7110071%629566.3
Tramell Jones Jr.121867%131207.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh3724316.626
Ja'Kobi Jackson205903.013
D.J. Lagway183101.710
Anthony Rubio52705.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III16197012.341
Hayden Hansen1311719.028
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)771110.118
Eugene Wilson146624.732

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Ron Roberts
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham172022
Jaden Robinson132001
Brendan Bett (Tr)121010
George Gumbs103020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyreak Sapp82100
Myles Graham172022
Titus Bullard10000
Javion Toombs20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton90013
Myles Graham172022
Devin Moore60002