Texas at Florida - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas logo   Texas Longhorns at Florida Gators  Florida logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Texas -4.5 (42.5) (-205)  Open: -6.5
Florida 29 - Texas: 21  (SEC)

 
Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
TEX coming off BYE
FLA coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas -7  (SP+ TEX -12.5)

Projected Score: TEX: 26 - FLA: 19 (45)
TEX Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
TEX Travel: 921 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gators (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (18 - 19)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-39.551.5W 55 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4.542.5L 21 - 29ON
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma-2.544.5W 23 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.545.5W 16 - 13UN
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-8.548.5W 45 - 38ON
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.548.5W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+3.550.5L 10 - 35UN
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-10.557.5W 52 - 37OY
Fri 11/28 Texas vs Texas A&M+2.554.5W 27 - 17UY
Wed 12/31 Texas vs Michigan-7.050.0W 41 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida vs Long Island University-46.556.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Florida vs South Florida-18.558.0L 16 - 18UN
Sat 9/13 Florida at LSU+5.547.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 9/20 Florida at Miami+8.551.5L 7 - 26UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Florida vs Texas+4.542.5W 29 - 21OY
Sat 10/11 Florida at Texas A&M+7.047.5L 17 - 34ON
Sat 10/18 Florida vs Mississippi State-9.550.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida vs Georgia+7.050.5L 20 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Florida at Kentucky-4.544.5L 7 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Florida at Ole Miss+10.553.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 11/22 Florida vs Tennessee+3.557.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Florida vs Florida State+1.548.5W 40 - 21OY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)30.549% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)20.342% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)21.645% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)2449% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Offense1630.519.846.3%4.031.4203931522414.746%54%49%44%16%.24
FLA Defense132418.743.9%3.121.9 - - - - - 51%49%49%39%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Defense1620.325.838%2.571.8 - - - - - 50%50%42%34%21%-.01
FLA Offense1321.62943%4.171.4193891642264.654%46%45%41%16%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas1626:4219.843%54%5.444.31.41.86.22.5131.4
Florida1328:3519.239%47%5.9541.41.96.43.1130.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Offense1646% (98)49% (16)32.6152.24.725 (41).13 (69)2.95 (84)67% (106)11% (97)0.91 (96)
FLA Defense1351% (71)49% (118) - - - - .13 (73)3.06 (78)67% (29)11% (37)0.84 (10)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Defense1650% (59)42% (61) - - - - -.04 (3)2.79 (33)55% (2)14% (8)0.72 (3)
FLA Offense1354% (42)45% (54)35.4163.74.626 (36).14 (63)3.04 (66)79% (27)9% (56)0.94 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Offense1654% (34)44% (43)19.629.5240.98.212.335 (3)12 (85).33 (34)1.7 (28)32% (71)38% (9).51 (7)5% (41)2.1 (57)
FLA Defense1349% (67)39% (44) - - - - - - 14 (23).16 (34)1.6 (87)31% (86)37% (124).42 (108)7% (43)2 (58)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Defense1650% (79)34% (7) - - - - - - 20 (2).04 (3)1.4 (14)33% (53)28% (35).14 (7)8% (17)1.6 (3)
FLA Offense1346% (91)41% (82)1626.1225.78.714.118 (68)14 (115).25 (73)1.6 (48)31% (54)28% (105).22 (107)7% (90)1.8 (118)

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 17.89  #14
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.54  #31
Texas's Defense Rating: 1.65  #14
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65%  #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2  #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 17.89   Florida: 10.195

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 16.2   Florida: 3.5




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 10.195  #33
Florida's Offense Rating: 17.44  #41
Florida's Defense Rating: 5.55  #25
2025 Talent Rating: 976.00  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 52  #12
Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5  #63
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #89
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #43

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 26
Florida 19


Projected Total Points: 45
Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Florida29Texas21Texas -4.5Florida42.5Over
202411/09Texas49Florida17Texas -24.5Texas48.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida112 Overs
Texas110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#14) TEX at (#33) FLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTEXFLA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #14 #33
SP+SP+ #17 #63
Perf GradeGrade #13 #49
OffenseOff #25 #51
DefenseDef #25 #62
Spec TeamsST #41 #86
TalentTal #5 #15
Blue ChipsBC% #6 #12
Texas Notes
(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report
Florida Notes
(12/6) Jon Sumrall won 3 conf titles in 4 years at Tulane
(12/4) Hired Buster Faulkner (GT OC) as OC. Great Hire
(12/2) Hired Brad White at DC, was DC at UK '19-'25
(11/30) Hired Jon Sumrall (Tulane). Good hire for Gators
(11/16) Gators fought hard, Off no showed 2H vs Ole Miss
(11/9) Have the Gators quit? Killed by Kentucky, yikes
(11/6) Injury report long vs UK. Motivation ?'s now
(11/2) WR D Wilson is out for the season (foot)
(10/19) Napier fired, WR coach Billy Gonzales interim
(10/12) Napier now 0-14 vs ranked teams on the road
(10/6) OG'd Texas by 100 yds, held UT to 3-11 on 3rd down
(10/6) Who is UF? Great def vs UT, Fr WR D Wilson a threat
Florida Injury Report
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffFLA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #25 #62
SuccessSuc #27 #95
ExplosiveExp #47 #32
PPAPPA #39 #53
PowerPwr #31 #25
SP+SP+ #30 #43
Pts POPPO #54 #14
HavocHav #77 #36
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #55 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #118
Run ExplRExp #96 #10
PPAExp #69 #73
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #84 #78
Stuff RateStuff #101 #84
TackleTak -  #11
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #15 #80
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #44
Pass ExplPExl #28 #87
PPAExp #34 #34
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #45 #98
F7 HavocF7 #97 #37
DB HavocDB #41 #43
Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatFLA OffTEX Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #51 #25
SuccessSuc #64 #22
ExplosiveExp #93 #1
PPAPPA #72 #3
PowerPwr #41 #14
SP+SP+ #89 #18
Pts POPPO #46 #3
HavocHav #68 #4
Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FLA OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #34 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #61
Run ExplRExp #82 #3
PPAExp #63 #3
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #33
Stuff RateStuff #77 #31
TackleTak -  #16
Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatFLA OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #86 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #82 #7
Pass ExplPExl #48 #14
PPAExp #73 #3
Pass Block/RushP Blk #36 #18
F7 HavocF7 #56 #8
DB HavocDB #90 #17
Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
Texas 4.5 (42.5)
Florida won vs Texas this year (29-21)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Texas last year (29-21)
Texas beat Florida in 2024 (49-17)

  
TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning24840461%31632677.8
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)81173%85107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Arch Manning92399104.360
Christian Clark5523624.322
CJ Baxter Jr.5419603.618
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo54834715.475
DeAndre Moore Jr.38532414.046
Parker Livingstone29516617.883
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)28408314.640

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jelani McDonald804013
Michael Taaffe701101
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Liona Lefau682003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons431612152
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Brad Spence (Tr)216320
Ethan Burke407321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kade Phillips222006
Graceson Littleton463006
Malik Muhammad303114

FLA's OC Rob Sale (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Lagway21333763%226416146.7
Tramell Jones Jr.213560%191205.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jadan Baugh220117085.326
D.J. Lagway7113611.938
KD Daniels2812014.316
Ja'Kobi Jackson279803.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vernell Brown III40524013.160
J.Michael Sturdivant (Tr)27406315.057
Hayden Hansen3025428.528
Eugene Wilson2723938.940

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Graham767274
Bryce Thornton563156
Jordan Castell540020
Aaron Chiles523111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Woods275431
Kamran James445332
Brendan Bett (Tr)404310
Myles Graham767274
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Thornton563156
Myles Graham767274
J'Vari Flowers171004