Oklahoma at Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Oklahoma logo   Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns  Texas logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Texas -2.5 (44.5) (-142)  Open: -9.5
Texas 23 - Oklahoma: 6  (Allstate Red River Rivalry)

 
Sooners (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Brent Venables (22 - 16)
Avg Score : 26 - 16 (31 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Oklahoma -1.5  (SP+ OKLA -2)
Projected Score: OKLA: 24 - TEX: 23 (47)
TEX Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
OKLA Travel: 172 miles
Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Oklahoma's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oklahoma vs Illinois State-39.561.0W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 Oklahoma vs Michigan-3.047.5W 24 - 13UY
Sat 9/13 Oklahoma at Temple-23.550.5W 42 - 3UY
Sat 9/20 Oklahoma vs Auburn-6.547.5W 24 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Oklahoma vs Kent State-46.553.5W 44 - 0UN
Sat 10/11 Oklahoma vs Texas+2.544.5L 6 - 23UN
Sat 10/18 Oklahoma at South Carolina-4.542.5W 26 - 7UY
Sat 10/25 Oklahoma vs Ole Miss-5.552.5L 26 - 34ON
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma at Tennessee+3.055.5W 33 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Oklahoma at Alabama+6.545.5W 23 - 21UY
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma vs Missouri-4.542.5W 17 - 6UY
Sat 11/29 Oklahoma vs LSU-11.536.5W 17 - 13UN
Fri 12/19 Oklahoma vs Alabama-1.542.0L 24 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma's Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-39.551.5W 55 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4.542.5L 21 - 29ON
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma-2.544.5W 23 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.545.5W 16 - 13UN
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-8.548.5W 45 - 38ON
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.548.5W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+3.550.5L 10 - 35UN
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-10.557.5W 52 - 37OY
Fri 11/28 Texas vs Texas A&M+2.554.5W 27 - 17UY
Wed 12/31 Texas vs Michigan-7.050.0W 41 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OKLA#123 (.06)39% (113)26.243% (85)2.99 (81)14435% (122)1553.39 (112)#12 (.07)36% (5)15.533% (2)39% (55)3.47 (34)421.51.6
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)30.549% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)20.342% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OKLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OKLA Offense1326.23139%3.391.5172981441553.953%46%43%35%18%.06
TEX Defense1620.31738%2.571.8 - - - - - 50%50%42%34%21%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OKLA Defense1315.514.535.7%3.471.6 - - - - - 53%46%33%39%18%.07
TEX Offense1630.538.846.3%4.031.4203931522414.746%54%49%44%16%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oklahoma1326:4016.935%52%4.8421.51.67.12.7229.6
Texas1626:4219.843%54%5.444.31.41.86.22.5131.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OKLA Offense1353% (45)43% (85)36.8143.63.916 (90).07 (100)2.99 (81)75% (58)14% (129)0.98 (63)
TEX Defense1650% (59)42% (61) - - - - -.04 (3)2.79 (33)55% (2)14% (8)0.72 (3)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OKLA Defense1353% (100)33% (2) - - - - -.05 (1)2.56 (11)69% (43)13% (12)0.88 (25)
TEX Offense1646% (98)49% (16)32.6152.24.725 (41).13 (69)2.95 (84)67% (106)11% (97)0.91 (96)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OKLA Offense1346% (94)35% (122)15.825.3154.76.19.814 (108)6 (10).07 (127)1.5 (105)33% (102)27% (109).25 (99)4% (9)2.2 (24)
TEX Defense1650% (79)34% (7) - - - - - - 20 (2).04 (3)1.4 (14)33% (53)28% (35).14 (7)8% (17)1.6 (3)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OKLA Defense1346% (34)39% (55) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (61)1.6 (83)37% (6)28% (33).25 (43)5% (114)1.9 (36)
TEX Offense1654% (34)44% (43)19.629.5240.98.212.335 (3)12 (85).33 (34)1.7 (28)32% (71)38% (9).51 (7)5% (41)2.1 (57)

Oklahoma's Power Ratings
Oklahoma's Power Rating: 18.44  #11
Oklahoma's Offense Rating: 17.21  #44
Oklahoma's Defense Rating: -1.23  #7
2025 Talent Rating: 1034.00  #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 51%  #15
Oklahoma's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Oklahoma's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.3  #14
Oklahoma's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #51
Oklahoma's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.9  #4

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma: 18.44   Texas: 17.045

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma: 18.3   Texas: 16.2




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 17.045  #14
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.54  #31
Texas's Defense Rating: 1.65  #14
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65  #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2  #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Oklahoma Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 14.5

Oklahoma's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Oklahoma 24
Texas 23


Projected Total Points: 47
Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Texas23Oklahoma6Texas -2.5Texas44.5Under
202410/12Oklahoma3Texas34Texas -16.5Texas48.5Under
202310/07Texas30Oklahoma34Texas -4Oklahoma62.0Over
202210/08Oklahoma0Texas49Texas -7.5Texas65.0Under
202110/09Texas48Oklahoma55Oklahoma -4Oklahoma65.5Over
202010/10Oklahoma53Texas45Oklahoma -3Oklahoma74.5Over
201910/12Texas27Oklahoma34Oklahoma -11.5Texas77.5Under
201810/06Oklahoma45Texas48Oklahoma -7Texas59.0Over
201812/01Oklahoma39Texas27Oklahoma -9.5Oklahoma79.5Under
201710/14Texas24Oklahoma29Oklahoma -9Texas62.0Under
201610/08Oklahoma45Texas40Oklahoma -6.5Texas72.5Over
201510/10Texas24Oklahoma17Oklahoma -13.5Texas59.5Under
201410/11Oklahoma31Texas26Oklahoma -14.5Texas0
201310/12Texas36Oklahoma20Oklahoma -13Texas0
201210/13Oklahoma63Texas21
201110/08Texas17Oklahoma55
201010/02Oklahoma28Texas20
200910/17Texas16Oklahoma13
200810/11Oklahoma35Texas45
200710/06Texas21Oklahoma28
200610/07Oklahoma10Texas28
200510/08Texas45Oklahoma12
200410/09Oklahoma12Texas0
200310/11Texas13Oklahoma65
200210/12Oklahoma35Texas24
200110/06Texas3Oklahoma14
200010/06Oklahoma63Texas14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas10105 Overs
Oklahoma1747 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 137 - 73 - 44 - 3
Road Teams13 - 147 - 73 - 44 - 3

(#11) OKLA at (#14) TEX
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOKLATEX
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #11 #14
SP+SP+ #14 #17
Perf GradeGrade #45 #13
OffenseOff #98 #25
DefenseDef #15 #25
Spec TeamsST #48 #41
TalentTal #10 #5
Blue ChipsBC% #15 #6
Oklahoma Notes
(11/16) Def, Turnovers, clutch play. Off isn't good
(10/19) RBs had 159 yds vs SC, better. F7 best in SEC
(10/12) RBs avg 71 yards pg, 127th in CFB, next to last P4
(9/23) QB Mateer had surgery on his thumb, out weeks
(9/21) DL is top 3 in CFB. 10 sacks vs Auburn, wreckers
(9/20) Run Off bad, but Run Def great vs AU. Big win
(9/7) OL help up well vs Mich, Mateer is dynamic
(7/21) DL is loaded at DT & DE, tops in SEC
(5/11) OL has top 10 exp, 70% returning, 30% via portal
(4/30) RBs bad LY. Have talent, Ott (Cal) huge add
(4/14) WR rebuild. Burks + 2 portals. Much improved
(4/4) CB Eli Bowen just outside top 10 CB via PFF
Oklahoma Injury Report
Texas Notes
(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report
Oklahoma on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
OKLA OffTEX Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #98 #25
SuccessSuc #113 #22
ExplosiveExp #112 #1
PPAPPA #123 #3
PowerPwr #44 #14
SP+SP+ #51 #18
Pts POPPO #112 #3
HavocHav #100 #4
Oklahoma Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
OKLA OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #114 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #85 #61
Run ExplRExp #63 #3
PPAExp #100 #3
Run BlockR Blk #100 -
OL YdsOLY #81 #33
Stuff RateStuff #72 #31
TackleTak -  #16
Oklahoma Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
OKLA OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #97 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #122 #7
Pass ExplPExl #105 #14
PPAExp #127 #3
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #12 #18
F7 HavocF7 #129 #8
DB HavocDB #9 #17
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffOKLA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #25 #15
SuccessSuc #27 #5
ExplosiveExp #47 #63
PPAPPA #39 #12
PowerPwr #31 #7
SP+SP+ #30 #4
Pts POPPO #54 #34
HavocHav #77 #43
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffOKLA Def
Run GameRun #55 #10
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #2
Run ExplRExp #96 #25
PPAExp #69 #1
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #84 #11
Stuff RateStuff #101 #25
TackleTak -  #52
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffOKLA Def
Pass GamePass #15 #32
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #55
Pass ExplPExl #28 #83
PPAExp #34 #61
Pass Block/RushP Blk #45 #12
F7 HavocF7 #97 #12
DB HavocDB #41 #114
Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

OKLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Cotton Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
Texas -2.5 (44.5)
Texas won vs Oklahoma this year (23-6)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Oklahoma last year (23-6)
Texas beat Oklahoma in 2024 (34-3)
Oklahoma beat Texas in 2023 (34-30)

  
OKLA's OC Ben Arbuckle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Mateer (Tr)24739762%288514117.3
Michael Hawkins Jr.152756%167306.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tory Blaylock12048244.025
John Mateer (Tr)14943182.951
Xavier Robinson8342145.165
Jadyn Ott216803.212
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Sategna (Tr)65949814.687
Deion Burks57620410.945
Jaren Kanak44533012.148
Keontez Lewis (Tr)21243211.628

View Oklahoma's Full Roster

OKLA's DC Zac Alley (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kip Lewis7611444
Owen Heinecke7412324
Robert Spears-Jennings592002
Kendal Daniels (Tr)5410123
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Taylor Wein3915761
R Mason Thomas2610731
Kip Lewis7611444
Gracen Halton337472
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Courtland Guillory411017
Peyton Bowen461017
Kip Lewis7611444

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning24840461%31632677.8
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)81173%85107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Arch Manning92399104.360
Christian Clark5523624.322
CJ Baxter Jr.5419603.618
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo54834715.475
DeAndre Moore Jr.38532414.046
Parker Livingstone29516617.883
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)28408314.640

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jelani McDonald804013
Michael Taaffe701101
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Liona Lefau682003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons431612152
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Brad Spence (Tr)216320
Ethan Burke407321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kade Phillips222006
Graceson Littleton463006
Malik Muhammad303114