Oklahoma at Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 11th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Texas -2.5 (44.5) (-142) Open: -9.5
Texas 23 - Oklahoma: 6 (Allstate Red River Rivalry)

Sooners (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Brent Venables (22 - 16)
Avg Score : 26 - 16 (31 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Our Line: Oklahoma -5.5 (SP+ OKLA -4.5)
Projected Score: OKLA: 26 - TEX: 20 (46)
TEX Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
OKLA Travel: 341 miles

Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
OKLA Players
TEX Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oklahoma's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Oklahoma vs Illinois State	-39.5	61.0	W 35 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/6	Oklahoma vs Michigan	-3.0	47.5	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Oklahoma at Temple	-23.5	50.5	W 42 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Oklahoma vs Auburn	-6.5	47.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Oklahoma vs Kent State	-46.5	53.5	W 44 - 0	U	N
Sat 10/11	Oklahoma vs Texas	+2.5	44.5	L 6 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/18	Oklahoma at South Carolina	-4.5	42.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Oklahoma vs Ole Miss	-5.5	52.5	L 26 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/1	Oklahoma at Tennessee	+3.0	55.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Oklahoma at Alabama	+6.5	45.5	W 23 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Oklahoma vs Missouri	-4.5	42.5	W 17 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Oklahoma vs LSU	-11.5	36.5	W 17 - 13	U	N
Fri 12/19	Oklahoma vs Alabama	-1.5	42.0	L 24 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma's Schedule

Texas's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Texas at Ohio State	+1.5	46.5	L 7 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/6	Texas vs San José State	-37.0	52.5	W 38 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/13	Texas vs UTEP	-39.5	52.5	W 27 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/20	Texas vs Sam Houston	-39.5	51.5	W 55 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Texas at Florida	-4.5	42.5	L 21 - 29	O	N
Sat 10/11	Texas vs Oklahoma	-2.5	44.5	W 23 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Texas at Kentucky	-12.5	45.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/25	Texas at Mississippi State	-8.5	48.5	W 45 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/1	Texas vs Vanderbilt	-3.5	48.5	W 34 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Texas at Georgia	+3.5	50.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/22	Texas vs Arkansas	-10.5	57.5	W 52 - 37	O	Y
Fri 11/28	Texas vs Texas A&M	+2.5	54.5	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Wed 12/31	Texas vs Michigan	-7.0	50.0	W 41 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKLA	#109 (.1)	40% (103)	26.2	38% (115)	2.71 (112)	119	41% (72)	236	3.77 (62)	#5 ()	32% (3)	15.5	30% (1)	34% (10)	2.62 (8)	61.2	1.2	1
TEX	#77 (.16)	40% (102)	30.5	42% (90)	2.83 (87)	120	39% (102)	234	3.4 (97)	#44 (.11)	40% (47)	20.3	38% (25)	41% (63)	3.82 (85)	61.8	0.6	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKLA	#123 (.06)	39% (113)		43% (85)	2.99 (81)	144	35% (122)	155	3.39 (112)	#12 (.07)	36% (5)		33% (2)	39% (55)	3.47 (34)	42	1.5	1.6
TEX	#39 (.24)	46% (27)		49% (16)	2.95 (84)	152	44% (43)	241	4.03 (54)	#3 (-.01)	38% (22)		42% (61)	34% (7)	2.57 (3)	44.3	1.4	1.8

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKLA Offense	13	26.2	31	39.7%	3.77	1.2	19	355	119	236	3.6	45%	53%	38%	41%	17%	.1
TEX Defense	13	20.3	17	39.8%	3.82	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	38%	41%	18%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKLA Defense	13	15.5	14.5	32.1%	2.62	1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	30%	34%	23%
TEX Offense	13	30.5	38.8	39.9%	3.4	0.6	17	354	120	234	4	47%	51%	42%	39%	16%	.16

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oklahoma	13	29:44	18.5	39%	57%	6.8	61.2	1.2	1	9.5	3.5	1	31.2
Texas	13	26:25	17.2	40%	47%	7.4	61.8	0.6	1.5	5.7	2.8	2	31.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKLA Offense	13	45% (104)	38% (115)	33.3	118.7	3.6	18 (60)	(123)	2.71 (112)	64% (116)	10% (77)	0.92 (86)
TEX Defense	13	44% (11)	38% (25)	-	-	-	-	-.02 (11)	2.59 (15)	50% (2)	11% (20)	0.82 (9)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKLA Defense	13	44% (12)	30% (1)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (6)	2.03 (2)	65% (26)	16% (2)	1.08 (119)
TEX Offense	13	47% (92)	42% (90)	30	119.9	4	14 (88)	.06 (97)	2.83 (87)	67% (102)	10% (94)	0.88 (106)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKLA Offense	13	53% (33)	41% (72)	20.4	33.2	235.8	7.1	11.6	17 (75)	11 (88)	.21 (94)	1.5 (85)	33% (105)	28% (91)	.25 (93)	7% (106)	2.2 (10)
TEX Defense	13	55% (127)	41% (63)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (12)	.24 (66)	1.5 (37)	32% (57)	29% (70)	.27 (64)	7% (41)	1.8 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKLA Defense	13	54% (125)	34% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (100)	.09 (12)	1.5 (46)	37% (10)	26% (20)	.22 (38)	6% (49)	2 (68)
TEX Offense	13	51% (45)	39% (102)	18.2	29.7	233.7	7.9	12.8	26 (50)	7 (60)	.28 (56)	1.8 (10)	33% (93)	32% (53)	.4 (32)	6% (59)	2.2 (19)

Oklahoma's Power Ratings
Oklahoma's Power Rating: 25.29 #11
Oklahoma's Offense Rating: 13.79 #46
Oklahoma's Defense Rating: -11.52 #2
2025 Talent Rating: 1034.00 #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 51% #15
Oklahoma's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Oklahoma's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.3 #13
Oklahoma's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #51
Oklahoma's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma: 25.29 Texas: 16.945

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma: 19.3 Texas: 14.8

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 16.945 #19
Texas's Offense Rating: 16.15 #33
Texas's Defense Rating: -2.94 #22
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65 #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8 #22
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #38
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Oklahoma Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 14.5

Oklahoma's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Oklahoma 26
Texas 20

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Oklahoma 23
Texas 22

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Texas 25
Oklahoma 24

Total Points: 49

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Texas	23	Oklahoma	6	Texas -2.5	Texas	44.5	Under
2024	10/12	Oklahoma	3	Texas	34	Texas -16.5	Texas	48.5	Under
2023	10/07	Texas	30	Oklahoma	34	Texas -4	Oklahoma	62.0	Over
2022	10/08	Oklahoma	0	Texas	49	Texas -7.5	Texas	65.0	Under
2021	10/09	Texas	48	Oklahoma	55	Oklahoma -4	Oklahoma	65.5	Over
2020	10/10	Oklahoma	53	Texas	45	Oklahoma -3	Oklahoma	74.5	Over
2019	10/12	Texas	27	Oklahoma	34	Oklahoma -11.5	Texas	77.5	Under
2018	10/06	Oklahoma	45	Texas	48	Oklahoma -7	Texas	59.0	Over
2018	12/01	Oklahoma	39	Texas	27	Oklahoma -9.5	Oklahoma	79.5	Under
2017	10/14	Texas	24	Oklahoma	29	Oklahoma -9	Texas	62.0	Under
2016	10/08	Oklahoma	45	Texas	40	Oklahoma -6.5	Texas	72.5	Over
2015	10/10	Texas	24	Oklahoma	17	Oklahoma -13.5	Texas	59.5	Under
2014	10/11	Oklahoma	31	Texas	26	Oklahoma -14.5	Texas	0
2013	10/12	Texas	36	Oklahoma	20	Oklahoma -13	Texas	0
2012	10/13	Oklahoma	63	Texas	21
2011	10/08	Texas	17	Oklahoma	55
2010	10/02	Oklahoma	28	Texas	20
2009	10/17	Texas	16	Oklahoma	13
2008	10/11	Oklahoma	35	Texas	45
2007	10/06	Texas	21	Oklahoma	28
2006	10/07	Oklahoma	10	Texas	28
2005	10/08	Texas	45	Oklahoma	12
2004	10/09	Oklahoma	12	Texas	0
2003	10/11	Texas	13	Oklahoma	65
2002	10/12	Oklahoma	35	Texas	24
2001	10/06	Texas	3	Oklahoma	14
2000	10/06	Oklahoma	63	Texas	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas	10	10	5 Overs
Oklahoma	17	4	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 13	7 - 7	3 - 4	4 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 14	7 - 7	3 - 4	4 - 3

(#11) OKLA at (#19) TEX

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OKLA	TEX
Power RatePwr	#11	#19
SP+SP+	#13	#22
Perf GradeGrade	#37	#14
OffenseOff	#92	#30
DefenseDef	#12	#22
Spec TeamsST	#43	#42
TalentTal	#10	#5
Blue ChipsBC%	#15	#6

Oklahoma Notes(11/16) Def, Turnovers, clutch play. Off isn't good
(10/19) RBs had 159 yds vs SC, better. F7 best in SEC
(10/12) RBs avg 71 yards pg, 127th in CFB, next to last P4
(9/23) QB Mateer had surgery on his thumb, out weeks
(9/21) DL is top 3 in CFB. 10 sacks vs Auburn, wreckers
(9/20) Run Off bad, but Run Def great vs AU. Big win
(9/7) OL help up well vs Mich, Mateer is dynamic
(7/21) DL is loaded at DT & DE, tops in SEC
(5/11) OL has top 10 exp, 70% returning, 30% via portal
(4/30) RBs bad LY. Have talent, Ott (Cal) huge add
(4/14) WR rebuild. Burks + 2 portals. Much improved
(4/4) CB Eli Bowen just outside top 10 CB via PFF
Oklahoma Injury Report

Texas Notes(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report

Oklahoma on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	OKLA Off	TEX Def
Perf GradePerf	#92	#22
SuccessSuc	#103	#47
ExplosiveExp	#61	#27
PPAPPA	#109	#44
PowerPwr	#46	#22
SP+SP+	#51	#17
Pts POPPO	#62	#85
HavocHav	#95	#25

Oklahoma Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	OKLA Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	#91	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	#115	#25
Run ExplRExp	#86	#9
PPAExp	#123	#11
Run BlockR Blk	#93	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	#15
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#30
TackleTak	-	#18

Oklahoma Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	OKLA Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#50
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#63
Pass ExplPExl	#85	#37
PPAExp	#94	#66
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#23	#8
F7 HavocF7	#77	#20
DB HavocDB	#106	#41

Texas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OKLA Def
Perf GradePerf	#30	#12
SuccessSuc	#102	#3
ExplosiveExp	#16	#109
PPAPPA	#77	#5
PowerPwr	#33	#2
SP+SP+	#38	#3
Pts POPPO	#97	#8
HavocHav	#73	#3

Texas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OKLA Def
Run GameRun	#78	#19
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#1
Run ExplRExp	#106	#119
PPAExp	#97	#6
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	#87	#2
Stuff RateStuff	#119	#2
TackleTak	-	#33

Texas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	OKLA Def
Pass GamePass	#20	#25
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#10
Pass ExplPExl	#10	#46
PPAExp	#56	#12
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#70	#14
F7 HavocF7	#94	#2
DB HavocDB	#59	#49

Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

OKLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Cotton Bowl
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 88° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Texas -2.5 (44.5)
Texas won vs Oklahoma this year (23-6)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Oklahoma last year (34-3)
Oklahoma beat Texas in 2023 (34-30)
Texas beat Oklahoma in 2022 (49-0)

OKLA's OC Ben Arbuckle (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Mateer (Tr)	247	397	62%	2885	14	11	7.3
Michael Hawkins Jr.	15	27	56%	167	3	0	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tory Blaylock	120	482	4	4.0	25
John Mateer (Tr)	149	431	8	2.9	51
Xavier Robinson	83	421	4	5.1	65
Jadyn Ott	21	68	0	3.2	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Sategna (Tr)	65	949	8	14.6	87
Deion Burks	57	620	4	10.9	45
Jaren Kanak	44	533	0	12.1	48
Keontez Lewis (Tr)	21	243	2	11.6	28

View Oklahoma's Full Roster

OKLA's DC Brent Venables (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kip Lewis	76	11	4	4	4
Owen Heinecke	74	12	3	2	4
Robert Spears-Jennings	59	2	0	0	2
Kendal Daniels (Tr)	54	10	1	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Taylor Wein	39	15	7	6	1
R Mason Thomas	26	10	7	3	1
Kip Lewis	76	11	4	4	4
Gracen Halton	33	7	4	7	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Courtland Guillory	41	1	0	1	7
Peyton Bowen	46	1	0	1	7
Kip Lewis	76	11	4	4	4

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Arch Manning	227	370	61%	2942	24	7	8.0
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)	8	11	73%	85	1	0	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	131	597	3	4.6	48
Arch Manning	83	244	8	2.9	36
CJ Baxter Jr.	54	196	0	3.6	18
Jerrick Gibson	37	152	1	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Wingo	50	770	7	15.4	75
DeAndre Moore Jr.	38	532	4	14.0	46
Parker Livingstone	26	491	6	18.9	83
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)	23	357	3	15.5	40

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jelani McDonald	73	4	0	1	3
Michael Taaffe	70	1	1	0	1
Anthony Hill Jr.	70	7	4	5	1
Liona Lefau	68	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	41	14	11	15	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	70	7	4	5	1
Brad Spence (Tr)	18	5	3	2	0
Trey Moore	34	5	3	6	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kade Phillips	14	0	0	0	5
Graceson Littleton	40	3	0	0	5
Malik Muhammad	30	3	1	1	4