Ohio State at Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ohio State logo (#1)Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines(#15)Michigan logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Ohio State -9.5 (43.5) (-400)  Open: -5.5 | 47.5
Ohio State 27 - Michigan: 9  (Big Ten)

 
Buckeyes (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (31 - 8 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
OSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Ohio State -14  (SP+ OSU -19)

Projected Score: OSU: 29 - MICH: 15 (44)
OSU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
OSU Travel: 161 miles
Wolverines (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ohio State vs Texas-1.546.5W 14 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Ohio State vs Grambling-55.562.5W 70 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Ohio State vs Ohio-28.049.0W 37 - 9UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Ohio State at Washington-9.552.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/4 Ohio State vs Minnesota-23.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Sat 10/11 Ohio State at Illinois-15.551.5W 34 - 16UY
Sat 10/18 Ohio State at Wisconsin-24.541.5W 34 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Ohio State vs Penn State-17.545.5W 38 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 Ohio State at Purdue-29.549.5W 34 - 10UN
Sat 11/15 Ohio State vs UCLA-33.546.5W 48 - 10OY
Sat 11/22 Ohio State vs Rutgers-29.054.0W 42 - 9UY
Sat 11/29 Ohio State at Michigan-9.543.5W 27 - 9UY
Sat 12/6 Ohio State vs Indiana-5.548.5L 10 - 13UN
Wed 12/31 Ohio State vs Miami-7.539.5L 14 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 4, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Michigan vs New Mexico-36.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+3.047.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.542.5W 63 - 3OY
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-17.542.5W 24 - 10UN
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC+3.058.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-4.550.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-13.547.5W 31 - 20ON
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-21.048.5W 21 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.041.5W 24 - 22ON
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-14.046.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+9.543.5L 9 - 27UN
Wed 12/31 Michigan vs Texas+7.050.0L 27 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 4, Bad: 3, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#10 (.31)52% (3)33.445% (47)2.99 (61)15558% (1)2684.83 (5)#3 (-.02)34% (7)9.331% (4)38% (32)2.64 (8)38.50.81
MICH#54 (.19)44% (47)27.549% (14)3.29 (17)21140% (89)1873.64 (75)#52 (.12)42% (78)20.441% (58)44% (105)3.79 (80)39.11.31.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)48% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)39% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Offense1433.430.651.7%4.830.8234231552684.648%51%45%58%11%.31
MICH Defense1320.413.342.3%3.791.4 - - - - - 46%52%41%44%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Defense149.38.234.4%2.641 - - - - - 48%50%31%38%16%-.02
MICH Offense1327.529.244.4%3.641.3203982111875.554%44%49%40%12%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ohio State1433:0022.653%67%4.138.50.815.62.5129
Michigan1329:4720.244%39%4.439.11.31.45.82.2031.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Offense1448% (80)45% (47)33.6154.84.625 (60).08 (89)2.99 (61)73% (61)7% (14)0.78 (133)
MICH Defense1346% (23)41% (58) - - - - .07 (49)2.68 (28)59% (11)10% (52)0.88 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Defense1448% (50)31% (4) - - - - -.09 (4)2.5 (10)59% (9)11% (17)0.82 (7)
MICH Offense1354% (33)49% (14)38.2211.25.533 (23).23 (17)3.29 (17)77% (32)8% (27)0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Offense1451% (54)58% (1)22.429.1268.29.21233 (22)8 (20).54 (4)1.4 (117)24% (3)39% (7).5 (12)4% (17)1.9 (90)
MICH Defense1352% (116)44% (105) - - - - - - 13 (4).22 (57)1.3 (3)30% (98)33% (111).4 (114)7% (38)2 (69)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Defense1450% (89)38% (32) - - - - - - 8 (100).05 (5)1.2 (1)36% (13)23% (5).08 (5)5% (108)1.7 (7)
MICH Offense1344% (103)40% (89)15.526.2186.87.11211 (106)10 (20).2 (96)1.5 (107)30% (51)30% (74).25 (91)4% (20)1.7 (132)

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 29.56  #2
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 25.53  #10
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -5.04  #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73%  #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.4  #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.3  #5
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.0  #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 29.56   Michigan: 16.89

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 32.4   Michigan: 13.6




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 16.89  #21
Michigan's Offense Rating: 16.26  #52
Michigan's Defense Rating: 1.08  #13
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50  #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6  #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8  #50
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.5  #12

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 8.2

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 29
Michigan 15


Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 28
Michigan 18

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 25
Michigan 18

Total Points: 43
Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.2
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.3

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Michigan9Ohio State27Ohio State -9.5Ohio State43.5Under
202411/30Ohio State10Michigan13Ohio State -20.5Michigan41.5Under
202311/25Michigan30Ohio State24Michigan -3.0Michigan47.0Over
202211/26Ohio State23Michigan45Ohio State -9Michigan56.0Over
202111/27Michigan42Ohio State27Ohio State -6.5Michigan63.5Over
201911/30Michigan27Ohio State56Ohio State -9Ohio State53.0Over
201811/24Ohio State62Michigan39Michigan -4.5Ohio State52.5Over
201711/25Michigan20Ohio State31Ohio State -12.5Michigan49.0Over
201611/26Ohio State30Michigan27Ohio State -7Michigan44.5Over
201511/28Michigan13Ohio State42Ohio State -2.5Ohio State46.0Over
201411/29Ohio State42Michigan28Ohio State -20Michigan0
201311/30Michigan41Ohio State42Ohio State -13Michigan0
201211/24Ohio State26Michigan21
201111/26Michigan40Ohio State34
201011/27Ohio State37Michigan7
200911/21Michigan10Ohio State21
200811/22Ohio State42Michigan7
200711/17Michigan3Ohio State14
200611/18Ohio State42Michigan39
200511/19Michigan21Ohio State25
200411/20Ohio State37Michigan21
200311/22Michigan35Ohio State21
200111/24Michigan20Ohio State26
200011/17Ohio State26Michigan38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan788 Overs
Ohio State1742 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 125 - 71 - 44 - 3
Road Teams12 - 127 - 53 - 44 - 1

(#2) OSU at (#21) MICH
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOSUMICH
Net PPPPPP #4 #36
Power RatePwr #2 #21
SP+SP+ #1 #26
Perf GradeGrade #2 #32
OffenseOff #2 #47
DefenseDef #3 #31
Spec TeamsST #21 #3
TalentTal #1 #8
Blue ChipsBC% #2 #16
Ohio State Notes
(11/15) WR2 Carnell Tate out for season (calf injury)
(10/11) OL seems to improve every week. RB Jackson a find
(10/11) CB Igbinosun physical & dares refs to call him on it
(10/6) Def is best unit in CFB. Allowed 25 points in 5 games
(9/29) Run Off is not good, Sayin is accurate but deep ball?
(9/22) Allowed 16 points in 3 games, none in red zone
(8/30) Def dominated Texas. Run game was awful
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos
Ohio State Injury Report
Michigan Notes
(12/10) Sherrone Moore fired for cause. Messy situation
(11/18) RB Justice Haynes out regular season (foot inj)
(11/16) Keep eking by B1G bottom feeders. Overrated
(10/18) Dominated UW up front both sides, Def was great
(10/12) Off is terrible, will not score vs Def w/ a pulse
(9/21) Skill positions on outside both Off & Def are bad
(9/20) Huge win at Neb, Run Off great, Run Def better
(9/14) Underwood unleashed, Run Off awful so far
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
Michigan Injury Report
Ohio State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
OSU OffMICH Def
PPPOffPPP #13 #59
Perf GradePerf #2 #31
SuccessSuc #3 #78
ExplosiveExp #124 #10
PPAPPA #10 #52
PowerPwr #10 #13
SP+SP+ #5 #12
Pts POPPO #5 #80
HavocHav #6 #46
Ohio State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
OSU OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #24 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #47 #58
Run ExplRExp #133 #23
PPAExp #89 #49
Run BlockR Blk #8 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #28
Stuff RateStuff #73 #85
TackleTak -  #32
Ohio State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
OSU OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #1 #66
Pass SuccessPSuc #1 #105
Pass ExplPExl #117 #3
PPAExp #4 #57
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #52 #30
F7 HavocF7 #14 #52
DB HavocDB #17 #38
Michigan on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMICH OffOSU Def
PPPDefPPP #1 #16
Perf GradePerf #47 #3
SuccessSuc #47 #7
ExplosiveExp #118 #2
PPAPPA #54 #3
PowerPwr #52 #1
SP+SP+ #50 #1
Pts POPPO #75 #8
HavocHav #14 #57
Michigan Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffOSU Def
Run GameRun #16 #2
Run SuccessRSuc #14 #4
Run ExplRExp #62 #7
PPAExp #17 #4
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #17 #10
Stuff RateStuff #9 #14
TackleTak -  #3
Michigan Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMICH OffOSU Def
Pass GamePass #92 #11
Pass SuccessPSuc #89 #32
Pass ExplPExl #107 #1
PPAExp #96 #5
Pass Block/RushP Blk #74 #44
F7 HavocF7 #27 #17
DB HavocDB #20 #108
Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 30° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 14
Ohio State 9.5 (43.5)
Ohio State won at Michigan this year (27-9)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Ohio State last year (13-10)
Michigan beat Ohio State in 2023 (30-24)
Michigan beat Ohio State in 2022 (45-23)

  
OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Julian Sayin30139177%36103289.2
Lincoln Kienholz111479%139109.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bo Jackson179109066.164
CJ Donaldson (Tr)96361103.827
James Peoples6134435.649
Isaiah West5931025.338
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Smith8712431214.387
Carnell Tate51875917.257
Max Klare (Tr)43448210.439
Brandon Inniss3627137.529

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sonny Styles837143
Arvell Reese6910752
Caleb Downs685111
Caden Curry66171182
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Curry66171182
Kenyatta Jackson2811722
Arvell Reese6910752
Eddrick Houston214310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davison Igbinosun521006
Sonny Styles837143
Jaylen McClain530003

MICH's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood20233560%24281197.2
Jadyn Davis020%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Marshall150932106.265
Justice Haynes (Tr)121857107.175
Bryce Underwood8839264.537
Bryson Kuzdzal7632644.322
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Andrew Marsh45651414.569
Donaven McCulley (Tr)39588315.144
Marlin Klein24248110.327
Semaj Morgan20223111.232

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Rolder737221
Ernest Hausmann686141
TJ Metcalf (Tr)583004
Brandyn Hillman493003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrick Moore29101033
Jaishawn Barham3210454
Jimmy Rolder737221
Cole Sullivan445201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry3300010
Jyaire Hill363105
TJ Metcalf (Tr)583004