Ohio State at Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview

(#1)Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines(#21)

Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Michigan Stadium - Ann Arbor, MI (Big Ten)

Buckeyes (9 - 0) (7 - 1 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 36 - 7 (32 - 8 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.8 - 0.2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

OSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Ohio State -8.5 (SP+ OSU -14)
Projected Score: OSU: 25 - MICH: 17 (42)
OSU Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
OSU Travel: 161 miles

Wolverines (7 - 2) (3 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 28 - 17 (33 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
OSU Players
MICH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Ohio State vs Texas	-1.5	46.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Ohio State vs Grambling	-55.5	62.5	W 70 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Ohio State vs Ohio	-28.0	49.0	W 37 - 9	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Ohio State at Washington	-9.5	52.5	W 24 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Ohio State vs Minnesota	-23.5	42.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Ohio State at Illinois	-15.5	51.5	W 34 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Ohio State at Wisconsin	-24.5	41.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Ohio State vs Penn State	-17.5	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Ohio State at Purdue	-29.5	49.5	W 34 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/15	Ohio State vs UCLA	-30.5
Sat 11/22	Ohio State vs Rutgers	-30.5
Sat 11/29	Ohio State at Michigan	-8.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule

Michigan's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Michigan vs New Mexico	-36.5	52.5	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/6	Michigan at Oklahoma	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/13	Michigan vs Central Michigan	-27.5	42.5	W 63 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Michigan at Nebraska	-1.5	47.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Michigan vs Wisconsin	-17.5	42.5	W 24 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/11	Michigan at USC	+3.0	58.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/18	Michigan vs Washington	-4.5	50.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Michigan at Michigan State	-13.5	47.5	W 31 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/1	Michigan vs Purdue	-21.0	48.5	W 21 - 16	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Michigan vs Northwestern	-11.5
Sat 11/22	Michigan at Maryland	-8.5
Sat 11/29	Michigan vs Ohio State	+8.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OSU	#4 (.37)	54% (2)	36.3	43% (75)	2.85 (66)	137	65% (1)	253	5.42 (1)	#4 (-.03)	36% (11)	7.2	33% (9)	38% (35)	2.27 (3)	32.1	0.6	1
MICH	#51 (.2)	44% (54)	28.1	47% (35)	3.36 (12)	225	42% (75)	186	3.66 (90)	#28 (.07)	43% (85)	17.2	42% (63)	45% (106)	3.49 (52)	39.6	0.9	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OSU	#1 (.43)	52% (3)		48% (19)	3.37 (15)	137	56% (1)	211	4.6 (15)	#2 (-.01)	36% (7)		39% (26)	34% (8)	2.05 (1)	31.6	0.8	1.1
MICH	#113 (.1)	40% (102)		41% (101)	3 (80)	149	40% (92)	123	4.18 (45)	#40 (.13)	38% (28)		38% (18)	39% (42)	3.48 (36)	36.8	1.5	1.2

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OSU Offense	9	36.3	31.5	54%	5.42	0.6	20	390	137	253	4.7	49%	51%	43%	65%	10%	.37
MICH Defense	9	17.2	10.6	42.9%	3.49	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	42%	45%	18%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OSU Defense	9	7.2	8	35.7%	2.27	1	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	33%	38%	18%	-.03
MICH Offense	9	28.1	33.2	44.1%	3.66	0.9	20	411	225	186	6	55%	44%	47%	42%	11%	.2

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ohio State	9	28:31	20	54%	70%	3.7	32.1	0.6	1	5.9	2.8	0	29.5
Michigan	9	29:29	20.2	42%	20%	4.3	39.6	0.9	1.7	6.7	2.8	0	30.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OSU Offense	9	49% (82)	43% (75)	28.9	136.9	4.7	13 (60)	.05 (99)	2.85 (66)	74% (55)	6% (4)	0.73 (134)
MICH Defense	9	45% (20)	42% (63)	-	-	-	-	.03 (31)	2.51 (40)	57% (9)	11% (32)	0.77 (6)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OSU Defense	9	45% (22)	33% (9)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (12)	2.29 (22)	67% (41)	13% (10)	0.96 (68)
MICH Offense	9	55% (27)	47% (35)	37.8	225.2	6	25 (23)	.21 (26)	3.36 (12)	74% (61)	7% (17)	0.94 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OSU Offense	9	51% (51)	65% (1)	20.3	25.3	252.7	10	12.4	24 (22)	3 (20)	.69 (1)	1.4 (109)	21% (3)	38% (16)	.59 (7)	4% (20)	1.9 (85)
MICH Defense	9	54% (114)	45% (106)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (4)	.15 (37)	1.2 (2)	28% (124)	32% (97)	.36 (106)	7% (45)	2.1 (92)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OSU Defense	9	54% (117)	38% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (100)	-.01 (5)	1.1 (1)	35% (18)	21% (3)	.04 (4)	5% (103)	1.9 (36)
MICH Offense	9	44% (109)	42% (75)	14.9	24.9	185.7	7.5	12.5	7 (106)	4 (20)	.25 (73)	1.5 (90)	30% (42)	31% (65)	.29 (78)	4% (15)	1.8 (120)

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 28.50 #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 35.56 #1
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -17.31 #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73% #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 11.8 - 0.2
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 29.8 #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #7
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.6 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 28.50 Michigan: 20.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 29.8 Michigan: 15.6

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 20.415 #19
Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.36 #36
Michigan's Defense Rating: -4.87 #11
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50 #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.6 #21
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #41
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.8 #9

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 36.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.5
Defense: 7.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 8

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 0
Record vs Spread: 7 - 1 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 25
Michigan 17

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 25
Michigan 15

Total Points: 41

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 24
Michigan 19

Total Points: 43

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.2
Defense: 17.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 10.6

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 2
Record vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/30	Ohio State	10	Michigan	13	Ohio State -20.5	Michigan	41.5	Under
2023	11/25	Michigan	30	Ohio State	24	Michigan -3.0	Michigan	47.0	Over
2022	11/26	Ohio State	23	Michigan	45	Ohio State -9	Michigan	56.0	Over
2021	11/27	Michigan	42	Ohio State	27	Ohio State -6.5	Michigan	63.5	Over
2019	11/30	Michigan	27	Ohio State	56	Ohio State -9	Ohio State	53.0	Over
2018	11/24	Ohio State	62	Michigan	39	Michigan -4.5	Ohio State	52.5	Over
2017	11/25	Michigan	20	Ohio State	31	Ohio State -12.5	Michigan	49.0	Over
2016	11/26	Ohio State	30	Michigan	27	Ohio State -7	Michigan	44.5	Over
2015	11/28	Michigan	13	Ohio State	42	Ohio State -2.5	Ohio State	46.0	Over
2014	11/29	Ohio State	42	Michigan	28	Ohio State -20	Michigan	0
2013	11/30	Michigan	41	Ohio State	42	Ohio State -13	Michigan	0
2012	11/24	Ohio State	26	Michigan	21
2011	11/26	Michigan	40	Ohio State	34
2010	11/27	Ohio State	37	Michigan	7
2009	11/21	Michigan	10	Ohio State	21
2008	11/22	Ohio State	42	Michigan	7
2007	11/17	Michigan	3	Ohio State	14
2006	11/18	Ohio State	42	Michigan	39
2005	11/19	Michigan	21	Ohio State	25
2004	11/20	Ohio State	37	Michigan	21
2003	11/22	Michigan	35	Ohio State	21
2001	11/24	Michigan	20	Ohio State	26
2000	11/17	Ohio State	26	Michigan	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan	7	8	8 Overs
Ohio State	16	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 11	5 - 6	1 - 4	4 - 2
Road Teams	11 - 12	6 - 5	2 - 4	4 - 1

(#1) OSU at (#19) MICH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OSU	MICH
Power RatePwr	#1	#19
SP+SP+	#1	#21
Perf GradeGrade	#2	#19
OffenseOff	#2	#38
DefenseDef	#11	#15
Spec TeamsST	#35	#12
TalentTal	#1	#8
Blue ChipsBC%	#2	#16

Ohio State Notes(10/11) OL seems to improve every week. RB Jackson a find
(10/11) CB Igbinosun physical & dares refs to call him on it
(10/6) Def is best unit in CFB. Allowed 25 points in 5 games
(9/29) Run Off is not good, Sayin is accurate but deep ball?
(9/22) Allowed 16 points in 3 games, none in red zone
(8/30) Def dominated Texas. Run game was awful
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos
(5/24) Fr WR Quincy Porter looks like next great one
Ohio State Injury Report

Michigan Notes(11/3) RB Justice Haynes foot surgery, out weeks
(10/18) Dominated UW up front both sides, Def was great
(10/12) Off is terrible, will not score vs Def w/ a pulse
(9/21) Skill positions on outside both Off & Def are bad
(9/20) Huge win at Neb, Run Off great, Run Def better
(9/14) Underwood unleashed, Run Off awful so far
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
(7/28) Schedule is easy, miss most outside OSU
(7/12) OL 3/5 back. Has talent but depth a concern TY
Michigan Injury Report

Ohio State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	MICH Def
Perf GradePerf	#2	#15
SuccessSuc	#2	#85
ExplosiveExp	#122	#1
PPAPPA	#4	#28
PowerPwr	#1	#11
SP+SP+	#7	#9
Pts POPPO	#1	#52
HavocHav	#5	#35

Ohio State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	MICH Def
Run GameRun	#53	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#75	#63
Run ExplRExp	#134	#6
PPAExp	#99	#31
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	#66	#40
Stuff RateStuff	#89	#112
TackleTak	-	#8

Ohio State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	MICH Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#106
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#2
PPAExp	#1	#37
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#65	#14
F7 HavocF7	#4	#32
DB HavocDB	#20	#45

Michigan on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	OSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#38	#11
SuccessSuc	#54	#11
ExplosiveExp	#117	#3
PPAPPA	#51	#4
PowerPwr	#36	#1
SP+SP+	#41	#1
Pts POPPO	#90	#3
HavocHav	#8	#28

Michigan Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#26	#17
Run SuccessRSuc	#35	#9
Run ExplRExp	#79	#68
PPAExp	#26	#12
Run BlockR Blk	#14	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#22
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#34
TackleTak	-	#23

Michigan Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#86	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	#75	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#90	#1
PPAExp	#73	#5
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#34	#39
F7 HavocF7	#17	#10
DB HavocDB	#15	#103

Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Ohio State last year (13-10)
Michigan beat Ohio State in 2023 (30-24)
Michigan beat Ohio State in 2022 (45-23)

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Julian Sayin	203	251	81%	2491	24	4	9.9
Lincoln Kienholz	7	8	88%	86	1	0	10.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bo Jackson	95	613	2	6.5	64
CJ Donaldson (Tr)	72	278	9	3.9	27
James Peoples	49	240	0	4.9	33
Isaiah West	34	177	1	5.2	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Smith	65	862	10	13.3	87
Carnell Tate	39	711	7	18.2	57
Max Klare (Tr)	26	269	1	10.3	29
Brandon Inniss	21	180	1	8.6	29

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Arvell Reese	55	10	7	2	2
Sonny Styles	51	3	0	2	2
Caleb Downs	43	3	0	1	0
Kayden McDonald	41	7	3	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caden Curry	38	11	7	5	1
Arvell Reese	55	10	7	2	2
Kenyatta Jackson	15	7	5	2	2
Kayden McDonald	41	7	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davison Igbinosun	32	1	0	0	5
Arvell Reese	55	10	7	2	2
Jaylen McClain	35	0	0	0	2

MICH's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Underwood	134	220	61%	1671	7	3	7.6
Jadyn Davis	0	2	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justice Haynes (Tr)	121	857	10	7.1	75
Jordan Marshall	124	729	8	5.9	56
Bryce Underwood	51	272	4	5.3	37
Jasper Parker	16	69	1	4.3	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donaven McCulley (Tr)	26	383	2	14.7	44
Andrew Marsh	25	376	2	15.0	69
Semaj Morgan	19	214	1	11.3	32
Marlin Klein	15	162	1	10.8	27

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ernest Hausmann	66	5	1	3	1
Jimmy Rolder	52	6	2	2	1
TJ Metcalf (Tr)	35	3	0	0	2
Brandyn Hillman	34	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derrick Moore	25	9	9	3	2
Jaishawn Barham	25	7	3	4	2
TJ Guy	13	3	2	2	0
Jimmy Rolder	52	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Zeke Berry	18	0	0	6
Jyaire Hill	28	2	1	5
TJ Metcalf (Tr)	35	3	0	2