Sam Houston at Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Sam Houston logo   Sam Houston Bearkats at Texas Longhorns  Texas logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Texas -39.5 (51.5) (0)  Open: -40.5
Texas 55 - Sam Houston: 0

 
Bearkats (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
TEX 3rd straight Home Game
SHSU coming off BYE
TEX is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas -46.5  (SP+ TEX -44)

Projected Score: SHSU: 3 - TEX: 50 (53)
TEX Win prob: 100% | Cover: 45%
SHSU Travel: 134 miles
Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.560.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 8/29 Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.558.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.047.5L 20 - 37ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Sam Houston at Texas+39.551.5L 0 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2 Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.553.5L 10 - 37UN
Thu 10/9 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.053.5L 27 - 29OY
Wed 10/15 Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.546.5L 17 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/31 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.548.0L 14 - 55ON
Sat 11/8 Sam Houston at Oregon State+21.052.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 11/15 Sam Houston vs Delaware+11.556.5W 26 - 23UY
Sat 11/22 Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+6.553.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 Sam Houston vs Florida International+10.550.5L 16 - 56ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 7, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-39.551.5W 55 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4.542.5L 21 - 29ON
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma-2.544.5W 23 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.545.5W 16 - 13UN
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-8.548.5W 45 - 38ON
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.548.5W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+3.550.5L 10 - 35UN
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-10.557.5W 52 - 37OY
Fri 11/28 Texas vs Texas A&M+2.554.5W 27 - 17UY
Wed 12/31 Texas vs Michigan-7.050.0W 41 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)17.841% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)37.847% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)30.549% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)20.342% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense1317.815.139.3%2.971.2193491801684.357%43%41%38%15%.1
TEX Defense1620.31738%2.571.8 - - - - - 50%50%42%34%21%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense1337.83941.8%3.842.1 - - - - - 51%48%47%37%17%.11
TEX Offense1630.538.846.3%4.031.4203931522414.746%54%49%44%16%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston1332:1018.839%67%4.637.91.22.15.42.2230.4
Texas1626:4219.843%54%5.444.31.41.86.22.5131.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense1357% (25)41% (100)42.5180.44.321 (59).1 (83)3.18 (44)68% (104)10% (69)0.9 (98)
TEX Defense1650% (59)42% (61) - - - - -.04 (3)2.79 (33)55% (2)14% (8)0.72 (3)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense1351% (74)47% (105) - - - - .17 (92)3.37 (119)75% (75)10% (56)0.83 (9)
TEX Offense1646% (98)49% (16)32.6152.24.725 (41).13 (69)2.95 (84)67% (106)11% (97)0.91 (96)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense1343% (113)38% (105)16.726.8168.26.310.115 (98)9 (48).13 (114)1.5 (106)30% (51)24% (126).13 (130)5% (47)2 (95)
TEX Defense1650% (79)34% (7) - - - - - - 20 (2).04 (3)1.4 (14)33% (53)28% (35).14 (7)8% (17)1.6 (3)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense1348% (60)37% (27) - - - - - - 16 (10).06 (6)1.4 (9)32% (57)25% (11).21 (32)6% (58)1.8 (12)
TEX Offense1654% (34)44% (43)19.629.5240.98.212.335 (3)12 (85).33 (34)1.7 (28)32% (71)38% (9).51 (7)5% (41)2.1 (57)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -25.75  #136
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 1.86  #130
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 27.61  #137
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00  #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -27.8  #135
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3  #129
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.8  #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -25.75   Texas: 19.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -27.8   Texas: 16.2




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 19.545  #14
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.54  #31
Texas's Defense Rating: 1.65  #14
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65  #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2  #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.1
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 50
Sam Houston 3


Projected Total Points: 53
Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Texas55Sam Houston0Texas -39.5Texas51.5Over
200609/30Texas56Sam Houston3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas211 Overs
Sam Houston000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#136) SHSU at (#14) TEX
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSHSUTEX
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #136 #14
SP+SP+ #135 #17
Perf GradeGrade #134 #13
OffenseOff #135 #25
DefenseDef #128 #25
Spec TeamsST #47 #41
TalentTal #121 #5
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #6
Sam Houston Notes
(10/10) Def could not hold vs Jax St, QB Watson is tough
(10/3) Hilarious mistakes vs NMSU, no wonder still 0 wins
(10/3) Def awful, Off somehow worse. Longo grade F-
(8/30) QB Watson cannot run this system, big issue
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
Sam Houston Injury Report
Texas Notes
(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report
Sam Houston on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffTEX Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #135 #25
SuccessSuc #107 #22
ExplosiveExp #127 #1
PPAPPA #115 #3
PowerPwr #130 #14
SP+SP+ #129 #18
Pts POPPO #129 #3
HavocHav #53 #4
Sam Houston Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #122 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #100 #61
Run ExplRExp #98 #3
PPAExp #83 #3
Run BlockR Blk #125 -
OL YdsOLY #44 #33
Stuff RateStuff #34 #31
TackleTak -  #16
Sam Houston Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #122 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #105 #7
Pass ExplPExl #106 #14
PPAExp #114 #3
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #83 #18
F7 HavocF7 #69 #8
DB HavocDB #47 #17
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffSHSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #25 #128
SuccessSuc #27 #70
ExplosiveExp #47 #3
PPAPPA #39 #31
PowerPwr #31 #137
SP+SP+ #30 #135
Pts POPPO #54 #75
HavocHav #77 #58
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffSHSU Def
Run GameRun #55 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #105
Run ExplRExp #96 #9
PPAExp #69 #92
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #84 #119
Stuff RateStuff #101 #129
TackleTak -  #122
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatTEX OffSHSU Def
Pass GamePass #15 #124
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #27
Pass ExplPExl #28 #9
PPAExp #34 #6
Pass Block/RushP Blk #45 #125
F7 HavocF7 #97 #56
DB HavocDB #41 #58
Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Texas -39.5 (51.5)
Texas won vs Sam Houston this year (55-0)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Sam Houston last year (55-0)

  
SHSU's OC Zack Patterson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson10418257%1108546.1
Landyn Locke7114150%765445.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landan Brown8448755.863
Elijah Green (Tr)5839126.780
Alton McCaskill (Tr)8837114.252
Hunter Watson7427623.755
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Reed30460515.354
Grady O'Neill (Tr)38392110.329
Landan Brown3723706.424
Tim Burns Jr.12228119.059

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Fish (Tr)786110
CJ Brown (Tr)642004
Tyler Bailey451102
Cecil Powell (Tr)424014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christopher Eaton Jr. (Tr)269550
Chauncey Chidi314300
Dean Ford326220
Dylan Frazier414222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emon Allen404005
Cecil Powell (Tr)424014
AJ Edwards413114

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning24840461%31632677.8
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)81173%85107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Arch Manning92399104.360
Christian Clark5523624.322
CJ Baxter Jr.5419603.618
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo54834715.475
DeAndre Moore Jr.38532414.046
Parker Livingstone29516617.883
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)28408314.640

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jelani McDonald804013
Michael Taaffe701101
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Liona Lefau682003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons431612152
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Brad Spence (Tr)216320
Ethan Burke407321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kade Phillips222006
Graceson Littleton463006
Malik Muhammad303114