Sam Houston at Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Sam Houston logo Sam Houston Bearkats at Texas Longhorns(#8)Texas logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Texas -39.5 (51.5) (0)  Open: -40.5
Texas 55 - Sam Houston: 0

 
Bearkats (0 - 8) (1 - 7 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 41 (14 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0.8 - 11.2 (#135)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
TEX 3rd straight Home Game
SHSU coming off BYE
TEX is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas -47.5  (SP+ TEX -46)

Projected Score: SHSU: 2 - TEX: 49 (51)
TEX Win prob: 100% | Cover: 45%
SHSU Travel: 134 miles
Longhorns (7 - 2) (2 - 7 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 16 (39 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#30)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Sam Houston at Western Kentucky+9.560.5L 24 - 41ON
Fri 8/29 Sam Houston vs UNLV+13.558.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Sam Houston at Hawai'i+7.047.5L 20 - 37ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Sam Houston at Texas+39.551.5L 0 - 55ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2 Sam Houston at New Mexico State-1.553.5L 10 - 37UN
Thu 10/9 Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State+7.053.5L 27 - 29OY
Wed 10/15 Sam Houston vs UTEP+3.546.5L 17 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/31 Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech+16.548.0L 14 - 55ON
Sat 11/8 Sam Houston at Oregon State+19.553.5
Sat 11/15 Sam Houston vs Delaware+12
Sat 11/22 Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee+9.5
Sat 11/29 Sam Houston vs Florida International+10

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 7, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-39.551.5W 55 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4.542.5L 21 - 29ON
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma-2.544.5W 23 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.545.5W 16 - 13UN
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-8.548.5W 45 - 38ON
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.548.5W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+5.5
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-12.5
Fri 11/28 Texas vs Texas A&M+2.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#122 (.05)38% (118)16.641% (89)2.27 (120)13937% (116)1832.71 (130)#122 (.25)48% (130)40.946% (109)52% (135)4.36 (115)58.81.31.4
TEX#83 (.15)40% (98)29.642% (82)2.87 (63)13638% (107)2463.23 (113)#24 (.06)38% (28)16.436% (20)40% (58)3.29 (31)66.10.81.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SHSU#115 (.1)39% (107)41% (100)3.18 (44)18038% (105)1682.97 (129)#31 (.11)42% (70)47% (105)37% (27)3.84 (75)37.91.22.1
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)49% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)42% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Offense816.613.638.5%2.711.3173221391834.444%55%41%37%19%.05
TEX Defense916.41238.4%3.291.7 - - - - - 44%55%36%40%19%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SHSU Defense840.94548.2%4.361.4 - - - - - 53%45%46%52%13%.25
TEX Offense929.638.540.2%3.230.8193821362463.948%51%42%38%15%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Sam Houston829:0216.622%24%6.558.81.31.44.81.1125.3
Texas929:2818.641%42%8.166.10.81.76.73.6231.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense844% (110)41% (89)31.9138.54.47 (122).1 (70)2.27 (120)69% (82)13% (127)1.11 (16)
TEX Defense944% (14)36% (20) - - - - -.1 (8)2.34 (27)41% (1)13% (11)0.71 (1)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense853% (105)46% (109) - - - - .14 (103)2.62 (56)63% (26)9% (76)1.02 (95)
TEX Offense948% (88)42% (82)34.4135.73.911 (88).06 (92)2.87 (63)68% (94)10% (88)0.88 (104)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense855% (27)37% (116)18.431.5183.35.8108 (103)6 (60).03 (128)1.3 (127)37% (132)23% (131)-.02 (135)7% (96)1.8 (112)
TEX Defense955% (124)40% (58) - - - - - - 9 (12).2 (57)1.5 (46)33% (56)26% (30).17 (26)7% (45)1.7 (13)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense845% (27)52% (135) - - - - - - 4 (100).45 (131)1.6 (83)27% (131)39% (133).31 (83)4% (127)1.8 (31)
TEX Offense951% (54)38% (107)19.731.2246.17.912.519 (50)6 (60).25 (74)1.7 (13)32% (74)31% (61).39 (41)5% (38)2.1 (38)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -22.47  #136
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 0.53  #122
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 23.00  #132
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00  #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 0.8 - 11.2
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -27.6  #135
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.9  #133
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.1  #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -22.47   Texas: 22.51

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -27.6   Texas: 18.1




Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 22.51  #15
Texas's Offense Rating: 14.92  #42
Texas's Defense Rating: -7.00  #8
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65  #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.1  #14
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #42
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.7  #5

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 13.6
Defense: 40.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 45

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 8
Record vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 49
Sam Houston 2


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas 32
Sam Houston 16

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Texas 38
Sam Houston 15

Total Points: 53
Texas Scoring
Offense: 29.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.5
Defense: 16.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 12

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Texas55Sam Houston0Texas -39.5Texas51.5Over
200609/30Texas56Sam Houston3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas211 Overs
Sam Houston000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#136) SHSU at (#15) TEX
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSHSUTEX
Power RatePwr #136 #15
SP+SP+ #135 #14
Perf GradeGrade #131 #15
OffenseOff #131 #38
DefenseDef #119 #7
Spec TeamsST #13 #28
TalentTal #121 #5
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #6
Sam Houston Notes
(10/10) Def could not hold vs Jax St, QB Watson is tough
(10/3) Hilarious mistakes vs NMSU, no wonder still 0 wins
(10/3) Def awful, Off somehow worse. Longo grade F-
(8/30) QB Watson cannot run this system, big issue
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
Sam Houston Injury Report
Texas Notes
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
(6/6) WRs lost top 2, lots of talent. Top 10 via PFF?
Texas Injury Report
Sam Houston on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffTEX Def
Perf GradePerf #131 #7
SuccessSuc #118 #28
ExplosiveExp #76 #21
PPAPPA #122 #24
PowerPwr #122 #8
SP+SP+ #133 #5
Pts POPPO #130 #31
HavocHav #131 #13
Sam Houston Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #128 #3
Run SuccessRSuc #89 #20
Run ExplRExp #16 #1
PPAExp #70 #8
Run BlockR Blk #122 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #27
Stuff RateStuff #96 #18
TackleTak -  #18
Sam Houston Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
SHSU OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #108 #38
Pass SuccessPSuc #116 #58
Pass ExplPExl #127 #46
PPAExp #128 #57
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #73 #5
F7 HavocF7 #127 #11
DB HavocDB #96 #45
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTEX OffSHSU Def
Perf GradePerf #38 #119
SuccessSuc #98 #130
ExplosiveExp #33 #89
PPAPPA #83 #122
PowerPwr #42 #132
SP+SP+ #42 #135
Pts POPPO #113 #115
HavocHav #65 #113
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TEX OffSHSU Def
Run GameRun #73 #103
Run SuccessRSuc #82 #109
Run ExplRExp #104 #95
PPAExp #92 #103
Run BlockR Blk #47 -
OL YdsOLY #63 #56
Stuff RateStuff #107 #77
TackleTak -  #132
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTEX OffSHSU Def
Pass GamePass #19 #123
Pass SuccessPSuc #107 #135
Pass ExplPExl #13 #83
PPAExp #74 #131
Pass Block/RushP Blk #74 #112
F7 HavocF7 #88 #76
DB HavocDB #38 #127
Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Texas -39.5 (51.5)
Texas won vs Sam Houston this year (55-0)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
SHSU's OC Zack Patterson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Watson10418257%1108546.1
Mabrey Mettauer (Tr)325163%250224.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landan Brown5428725.363
Hunter Watson7427623.755
Elijah Green (Tr)4127126.680
Alton McCaskill (Tr)4824915.252
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Reed17231213.632
Grady O'Neill (Tr)16170010.629
Landan Brown2916005.517
Tim Burns Jr.6145124.259

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Fish (Tr)512000
CJ Brown (Tr)362003
AJ Edwards313103
Emon Allen304001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chauncey Chidi253200
Christopher Eaton Jr. (Tr)136230
Darien Jackson72101
Zeiqui Lawton92120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cecil Powell (Tr)272003
AJ Edwards313103
CJ Brown (Tr)362003

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning16826863%21231867.9
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)81173%85107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner8833833.837
Arch Manning6920362.936
CJ Baxter Jr.4015904.018
Jerrick Gibson3715214.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo31593519.175
DeAndre Moore Jr.29379113.142
Parker Livingstone21351516.783
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)15201313.431

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Hill Jr.646451
Jelani McDonald553013
Michael Taaffe511100
Liona Lefau502003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons3010881
Anthony Hill Jr.646451
Brad Spence (Tr)145320
Trey Moore255343
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malik Muhammad202114
Liona Lefau502003
Jelani McDonald553013