Wisconsin at Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview
Wisconsin logo Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan Wolverines(#21)Michigan logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Michigan Stadium - Ann Arbor, MI  (Big Ten)

 
Badgers (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (13 - 13)
Avg Score : 24 - 16 (14 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#106)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
WIS coming off BYE
MICH coming off BYE
Our Line: Michigan -16   (SP+ MICH -11)

Projected Score: WIS: 18 - MICH: 34 (51)
MICH Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
WIS Travel: 293 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wolverines (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 15 (49 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Wisconsin's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Wisconsin vs Miami (OH)-17.540.5W 17 - 0UN
Sat 9/6 Wisconsin vs Middle Tennessee-28.545.5W 42 - 10OY
Sat 9/13 Wisconsin at Alabama+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 9/20 Wisconsin vs Maryland-9.543.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Wisconsin at Michigan+16
Sat 10/11 Wisconsin vs Iowa+2.5
Sat 10/18 Wisconsin vs Ohio State+18
Sat 10/25 Wisconsin at Oregon+23.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Wisconsin vs Washington+5
Sat 11/15 Wisconsin at Indiana+14
Sat 11/22 Wisconsin vs Illinois+9
Sat 11/29 Wisconsin at Minnesota+6.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Michigan vs New Mexico-36.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+3.047.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.542.5W 63 - 3OY
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-2.546.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-16
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC+5.5
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-8.5
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-11.5
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-29.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-20.5
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-9.5
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+4.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WIS#66 (.21)46% (51)24.343% (81)3.6 (22)14351% (30)1963.17 (112)#101 (.2)43% (97)1638% (60)48% (115)1.82 (11)351.31
MICH#41 (.3)40% (99)36.739% (103)3.02 (66)24341% (90)2094.8 (37)#42 (.05)39% (65)14.738% (59)41% (70)4 (89)47.30.72
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WIS#97 (.14)42% (73)46% (39)3.16 (46)15438% (107)1974.02 (57)#80 (.18)43% (88)45% (86)42% (81)4.17 (105)37.51.51
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WIS Offense324.31446.2%3.171.3193391431964.153%46%43%51%14%.21
MICH Defense314.71038.8%42 - - - - - 44%55%38%41%20%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WIS Defense3163843.2%1.821 - - - - - 43%55%38%48%11%.2
MICH Offense336.748.539.9%4.80.7224522432096.150%50%39%41%10%.3

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Wisconsin333:4419.350%80%3.7351.314.33127.7
Michigan329:1722.345%25%547.30.727.72.7031.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WIS Offense353% (53)43% (81)35.3143.34.14 (79).25 (40)3.6 (22)79% (40)8% (58)1 (56)
MICH Defense344% (27)38% (59) - - - - .01 (52)2.78 (68)57% (28)12% (38)0.76 (26)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WIS Defense343% (21)38% (60) - - - - -.1 (18)2.8 (72)57% (28)7% (110)0.86 (50)
MICH Offense350% (71)39% (103)39.7242.76.112 (3).27 (35)3.02 (66)75% (52)7% (40)1.3 (18)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WIS Offense346% (85)51% (30)17.325.31967.711.35 (54)4 (121).23 (79)1.4 (91)32% (89)33% (54).48 (44)6% (89)2 (59)
MICH Defense355% (107)41% (70) - - - - - - 5 (6).12 (43)1.3 (25)29% (109)32% (88).37 (94)7% (34)1.9 (58)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WIS Defense355% (106)48% (115) - - - - - - 3 (28).48 (118)1.7 (97)30% (95)37% (119).66 (129)4% (108)2.3 (115)
MICH Offense350% (62)41% (90)15.326.7209.37.913.72 (102)1 (23).34 (61)1.8 (18)32% (89)33% (54).54 (33)3% (26)2.1 (50)

Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 11.56 #49
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 15.92 #47
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 4.35 #53
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 24% #24
Wisconsin's 2025 Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5
Wisconsin's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.8 #52
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #79
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #26

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 11.56   Michigan: 25.145

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 6.8   Michigan: 17.4




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 25.145 #16
Michigan's Offense Rating: 24.00 #22
Michigan's Defense Rating: -3.90 #12
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50 #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4 #17
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #46
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 14
Defense: 16 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

Wisconsin's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 34
Wisconsin 18


Total Points: 51

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 48.5
Defense: 14.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202110/02Wisconsin17Michigan38MichiganWisconsin -2Michigan43.5Over
202011/14Michigan11Wisconsin49WisconsinWisconsin -7.0Wisconsin51.5Over
201909/21Wisconsin35Michigan14WisconsinWisconsin -3Wisconsin46.0Over
201810/13Michigan38Wisconsin13MichiganMichigan -10Michigan47.5Over
201711/18Wisconsin24Michigan10WisconsinWisconsin -6.5Wisconsin40.5Under
201610/01Michigan14Wisconsin7MichiganMichigan -10Wisconsin44.5Under
201011/20Michigan28Wisconsin48Wisconsin
200911/14Wisconsin45Michigan24Wisconsin
200809/27Michigan27Wisconsin25Michigan
200711/10Wisconsin37Michigan21Wisconsin
200609/23Michigan27Wisconsin13Michigan
200509/24Wisconsin23Michigan20Wisconsin
200211/16Michigan21Wisconsin14Michigan
200111/17Wisconsin17Michigan20Michigan
200009/29Michigan13Wisconsin10Michigan
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan824 Overs
Wisconsin742 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 43 - 33 - 20 - 1
Road Teams4 - 113 - 31 - 02 - 3

(#49) Wisconsin Info
Power Rating: 11.56 #49
Offense Rating: 15.92 #47
Defense Rating: 4.35 #53
Overall SP+ Rating: 6.8 #52
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #26
Talent Rating: 866.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 24% #24
Expected Record: 4.5 - 7.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.17 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Good Pass Success 51%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Great in Scoring Position 1.82 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Awful Pass Def Success 48%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Wisconsin has lost 2 straight
Wisconsin has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Wisconsin Notes
(8/30) Run game bad vs M-OH, QBs bad, Def great
(5/17) DL was portal focus, 7 adds, DE big need
(5/15) LT Heywood out for season (ACL), big loss
(5/15) DB looks light on bodies, CB could be 2 portals?
(4/18) RBs Dupree & rFr Jones decent combo, depth?
(4/4) OT Riley Mahlman a top OT via PFF past 2 yrs
(3/31) QB portals Edwards (MD)/O'Neil (SDSU) meh
(3/31) Def was decent, return a lot. 13 portals, 7 DL
(3/31) 0-5 finish LY, scored over 13 pts only once.
(3/24) Portal WR Hamper (Idaho) great find/weapon

Wisconsin Highlights
Wisconsin has a top Offensive Line (#22)
Wisconsin offense is good on 3rd downs
Wisconsin does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#20)

Wisconsin Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Wisconsin defense is really good in red zone (#11)
Wisconsin Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#27)
Wisconsin commits very few Penalties (#16)
Wisconsin defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Wisconsin Deficiencies
Wisconsin throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Wisconsin offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#112)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMICHWIS
OverallOver#19#40
OffenseOff#36#53
DefenseDef#18#31
Special TeamsST#10#22
PassingPass#75#100
RushingRush#18#69
Run BlockRBLK#32#54
Pass BlockPBLK#35#65
Route RunningWR Rt#60#11
TacklingTkl#7#45
Run DefenseR Def#18#12
Pass Rush DefPRush#49#20
Coverage DefCov#11#77

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: WIS | MICH
Depth Chart: WIS | MICH
Rosters: WIS | MICH
(#16) Michigan Info
Power Rating: 25.145 #16
Offense Rating: 24.00 #22
Defense Rating: -3.90 #12
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4 #17
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #46
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3 #4
Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50 #16
Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.8 PPO
Poor Run Success 39%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 39%
Poor in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Michigan has lost 1 straight
Michigan has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Michigan Notes
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
(7/28) Schedule is easy, miss most outside OSU
(7/12) OL 3/5 back. Has talent but depth a concern TY
(7/12) Signed J Garcia (ECU) late, Keene health?
(5/5) Def F7 still great, but lost top 5 tacklers, leaders
(5/5) HC Moore suspended for CMU/Neb games
(5/2) S Rod Moore a top 10 DB via PFF

Michigan Highlights
Michigan is Undefeated at Home

Michigan has Really Good Running Game (#10)
Michigan offense is explosive (#10)
Michigan does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#16)

Michigan defense does not give up big plays (#20)
Michigan has a great TO Margin (#28)
Michigan defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

Michigan Deficiencies
Michigan run game is really bad (#103)


  
Wisconsin's OC Jeff Grimes
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Danny O'Neil (Tr)466373%520548.3
Billy Edwards61346%68005.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dilin Jones2913414.613
Darrion Dupree219204.414
Trech Kekahuna572114.461
Cade Yacamelli145604.09
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayden Ballard (Tr)6141223.558
Lance Mason (Tr)9132114.734
Vinny Anthony9115112.831
Trech Kekahuna64607.722

View Wisconsin's Full Roster
Wisconsin's DC Mike Tressel
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Alliegro124200
Tackett Curtis101101
Mason Reiger (Tr)81120
Sebastian Cheeks72100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Alliegro124200
Brandon Lane32200
Sebastian Cheeks72100
Darryl Peterson41100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ricardo Hallman40002
Austin Brown30001
Tackett Curtis101101

Michigan's OC Chip Lindsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood468058%628217.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Justice Haynes (Tr)4938857.975
Jordan Marshall3010923.615
Bryce Underwood1410827.728
Jasper Parker94515.011
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donaven McCulley (Tr)10158015.844
Semaj Morgan9121113.432
Channing Goodwin6107017.839
Marlin Klein7101114.427

View Michigan's Full Roster
Michigan's DC Don Martindale
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ernest Hausmann201020
Jimmy Rolder161001
Brandyn Hillman131001
Cole Sullivan132200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cole Sullivan132200
Jaishawn Barham123210
Dominic Nichols62210
Troy Bowles (Tr)42110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jyaire Hill112102
Zeke Berry20002
Jaden Mangham71102