Wisconsin at Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview
Wisconsin logo   Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan Wolverines  Michigan logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Michigan -17.5 (42.5) (-800)  Open: -16.5
Michigan 24 - Wisconsin: 10  (Big Ten)

 
Badgers (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (13 - 13)
Avg Score : 13 - 22 (9 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
WIS coming off BYE
MICH coming off BYE
Our Line: Michigan -17  (SP+ MICH -17)

Projected Score: WIS: 12 - MICH: 29 (41)
MICH Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
WIS Travel: 293 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wolverines (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
Wisconsin's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Wisconsin vs Miami (OH)-17.540.5W 17 - 0UN
Sat 9/6 Wisconsin vs Middle Tennessee-28.545.5W 42 - 10OY
Sat 9/13 Wisconsin at Alabama+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 9/20 Wisconsin vs Maryland-10.544.5L 10 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Wisconsin at Michigan+17.542.5L 10 - 24UY
Sat 10/11 Wisconsin vs Iowa+5.537.5L 0 - 37UN
Sat 10/18 Wisconsin vs Ohio State+24.541.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 10/25 Wisconsin at Oregon+31.544.5L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Wisconsin vs Washington+10.544.5W 13 - 10UY
Sat 11/15 Wisconsin at Indiana+28.543.5L 7 - 31UY
Sat 11/22 Wisconsin vs Illinois+8.542.5W 27 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 Wisconsin at Minnesota-2.538.5L 7 - 17UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Michigan vs New Mexico-36.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+3.047.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.542.5W 63 - 3OY
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-17.542.5W 24 - 10UN
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC+3.058.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-4.550.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-13.547.5W 31 - 20ON
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-21.048.5W 21 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.041.5W 24 - 22ON
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-14.046.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+9.543.5L 9 - 27UN
Wed 12/31 Michigan vs Texas+7.050.0L 27 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WIS#97 (.14)42% (73)12.846% (39)3.16 (46)15438% (107)1974.02 (57)#80 (.18)43% (88)21.645% (86)42% (81)4.17 (105)37.51.51
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)27.541% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)20.438% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WIS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MICH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WIS Offense1212.8942.2%4.021.5193511541974.451%49%46%38%17%.14
MICH Defense1320.413.338.3%3.481.2 - - - - - 42%57%38%39%19%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WIS Defense1221.626.243.4%4.171 - - - - - 54%45%45%42%12%.18
MICH Offense1327.529.240.1%4.181.5152721491234.560%39%41%40%15%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Wisconsin1229:2118.836%60%5.337.51.513.51.4027.7
Michigan1328:5715.243%71%3.736.81.51.25.62.4230
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WIS Offense1251% (70)46% (39)34.9154.14.419 (73).12 (75)3.16 (46)75% (58)8% (37)0.8 (129)
MICH Defense1342% (1)38% (18) - - - - .04 (24)2.72 (24)82% (120)11% (50)0.85 (11)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WIS Defense1254% (110)45% (86) - - - - .15 (81)3.27 (105)68% (36)7% (130)0.97 (60)
MICH Offense1360% (9)41% (101)33.3148.54.518 (78).1 (86)3 (80)84% (7)10% (73)0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WIS Offense1249% (65)38% (107)17.330.4196.76.511.414 (108)10 (63).16 (102)1.5 (100)30% (34)27% (111).15 (128)9% (132)1.8 (122)
MICH Defense1357% (134)39% (42) - - - - - - 11 (52).21 (56)1.6 (71)36% (12)28% (28).27 (54)8% (10)2.2 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WIS Defense1245% (22)42% (81) - - - - - - 4 (125).25 (76)1.3 (5)28% (123)28% (32).24 (42)5% (92)1.8 (19)
MICH Offense1339% (126)40% (92)13.822.5123.35.5911 (122)12 (85).12 (119)1.4 (131)33% (90)30% (92).26 (96)5% (51)1.7 (133)

Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 2.89  #55
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 10.00  #87
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 7.11  #31
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00  #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 24%  #24
Wisconsin's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Wisconsin's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.4  #85
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #122
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #34

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 2.89   Michigan: 16.29

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: -4.4   Michigan: 12.4




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 16.29  #21
Michigan's Offense Rating: 16.26  #52
Michigan's Defense Rating: 1.08  #13
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50  #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9  #48
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.0  #15

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 12.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

Wisconsin's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 10
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 29
Wisconsin 12


Projected Total Points: 41
Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.2
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.3

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Michigan24Wisconsin10Michigan -17.5Wisconsin42.5Under
202110/02Wisconsin17Michigan38Wisconsin -2Michigan43.5Over
202011/14Michigan11Wisconsin49Wisconsin -7.0Wisconsin51.5Over
201909/21Wisconsin35Michigan14Wisconsin -3Wisconsin46.0Over
201810/13Michigan38Wisconsin13Michigan -10Michigan47.5Over
201711/18Wisconsin24Michigan10Wisconsin -6.5Wisconsin40.5Under
201610/01Michigan14Wisconsin7Michigan -10Wisconsin44.5Under
201011/20Michigan28Wisconsin48
200911/14Wisconsin45Michigan24
200809/27Michigan27Wisconsin25
200711/10Wisconsin37Michigan21
200609/23Michigan27Wisconsin13
200509/24Wisconsin23Michigan20
200211/16Michigan21Wisconsin14
200111/17Wisconsin17Michigan20
200009/29Michigan13Wisconsin10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan924 Overs
Wisconsin753 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 43 - 43 - 30 - 1
Road Teams4 - 124 - 31 - 03 - 3

(#55) WIS at (#21) MICH
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWISMICH
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #55 #21
SP+SP+ #85 #25
Perf GradeGrade #101 #32
OffenseOff #125 #47
DefenseDef #43 #31
Spec TeamsST #22 #3
TalentTal #35 #8
Blue ChipsBC% #24 #16
Wisconsin Notes
(11/10) Fr LB Mason Posa was unreal vs Wash. Big future
(11/6) Fickell will return in '26. NIL $ coming
(10/12) Tire fire. Off has scored 34 pts vs four P4 teams
(10/8) QB O'Neil 3rd string now? Edwards (inj), Simmons #2
(10/4) QB1 is now Hunter Simmons, looks better than others
(9/20) Run Off pitiful, Pass Def bad vs MD. Bad loss
(9/18) QB1 Edwards game time decision for MD
(8/30) Run game bad vs M-OH, QBs bad, Def great
(5/17) DL was portal focus, 7 adds, DE big need
(5/15) LT Heywood out for season (ACL), big loss
(5/15) DB looks light on bodies, CB could be 2 portals?
(4/18) RBs Dupree & rFr Jones decent combo, depth?
Wisconsin Injury Report
Michigan Notes
(12/10) Sherrone Moore fired for cause. Messy situation
(11/18) RB Justice Haynes out regular season (foot inj)
(11/16) Keep eking by B1G bottom feeders. Overrated
(10/18) Dominated UW up front both sides, Def was great
(10/12) Off is terrible, will not score vs Def w/ a pulse
(9/21) Skill positions on outside both Off & Def are bad
(9/20) Huge win at Neb, Run Off great, Run Def better
(9/14) Underwood unleashed, Run Off awful so far
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
Michigan Injury Report
Wisconsin on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
WIS OffMICH Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #125 #31
SuccessSuc #73 #28
ExplosiveExp #130 #73
PPAPPA #97 #40
PowerPwr #87 #13
SP+SP+ #122 #15
Pts POPPO #57 #36
HavocHav #90 #23
Wisconsin Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
WIS OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #122 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #39 #18
Run ExplRExp #129 #11
PPAExp #75 #24
Run BlockR Blk #100 -
OL YdsOLY #46 #24
Stuff RateStuff #43 #61
TackleTak -  #32
Wisconsin Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
WIS OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #135 #66
Pass SuccessPSuc #107 #42
Pass ExplPExl #100 #71
PPAExp #102 #56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #84 #30
F7 HavocF7 #37 #50
DB HavocDB #132 #10
Michigan on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMICH OffWIS Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #47 #43
SuccessSuc #102 #88
ExplosiveExp #133 #11
PPAPPA #113 #80
PowerPwr #52 #31
SP+SP+ #48 #34
Pts POPPO #45 #105
HavocHav #58 #124
Michigan Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffWIS Def
Run GameRun #16 #38
Run SuccessRSuc #101 #86
Run ExplRExp #91 #60
PPAExp #86 #81
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #80 #105
Stuff RateStuff #27 #86
TackleTak -  #66
Michigan Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMICH OffWIS Def
Pass GamePass #92 #100
Pass SuccessPSuc #92 #81
Pass ExplPExl #131 #5
PPAExp #119 #76
Pass Block/RushP Blk #74 #36
F7 HavocF7 #73 #130
DB HavocDB #51 #92
Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

WIS 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 79° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Michigan -17.5 (42.5)
Michigan won vs Wisconsin this year (24-10)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Wisconsin last year (24-10)

  
WIS's OC Jeff Grimes (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Simmons6211853%664275.6
Danny O'Neil (Tr)619068%635557.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darrion Dupree8336324.484
Dilin Jones7630023.916
Gideon Ituka6025504.318
Trech Kekahuna1412919.261
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lance Mason (Tr)30398413.345
Vinny Anthony31391112.667
Trech Kekahuna2621108.145
Jayden Ballard (Tr)7150221.458

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Mike Tressel (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mason Posa574424
Cooper Catalano565111
Matthew Jung491000
Christian Alliegro488401
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darryl Peterson3312733
Mason Reiger (Tr)326541
Mason Posa574424
Christian Alliegro488401
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ricardo Hallman271005
Mason Posa574424
Austin Brown410003

MICH's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood20233560%24281197.2
Jadyn Davis020%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Marshall150932106.265
Justice Haynes (Tr)121857107.175
Bryce Underwood8839264.537
Bryson Kuzdzal7632644.322
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Andrew Marsh45651414.569
Donaven McCulley (Tr)39588315.144
Marlin Klein24248110.327
Semaj Morgan20223111.232

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Rolder737221
Ernest Hausmann686141
TJ Metcalf (Tr)583004
Brandyn Hillman493003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrick Moore29101033
Jaishawn Barham3210454
Jimmy Rolder737221
Cole Sullivan445201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry3300010
Jyaire Hill363105
TJ Metcalf (Tr)583004