Texas at Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas logo   Texas Longhorns at Kentucky Wildcats  Kentucky logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas -12.5 (45.5) (-470)  Open: -13.5
Texas 16 - Kentucky: 13  (SEC)

 
Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
UK coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas -9.5  (SP+ TEX -14.5)

Projected Score: TEX: 29 - UK: 19 (48)
TEX Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
TEX Travel: 925 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wildcats (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-39.551.5W 55 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4.542.5L 21 - 29ON
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma-2.544.5W 23 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.545.5W 16 - 13UN
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-8.548.5W 45 - 38ON
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.548.5W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+3.550.5L 10 - 35UN
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-10.557.5W 52 - 37OY
Fri 11/28 Texas vs Texas A&M+2.554.5W 27 - 17UY
Wed 12/31 Texas vs Michigan-7.050.0W 41 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Kentucky vs Toledo-10.048.5W 24 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+8.051.5L 23 - 30OY
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-26.549.5W 48 - 23ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+5.546.5L 13 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+19.548.5L 14 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+12.545.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+7.555.5L 34 - 56ON
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+11.544.5W 10 - 3UY
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+4.544.5W 38 - 7OY
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-22.552.5W 42 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+7.053.5L 17 - 45ON
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+1.045.5L 0 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)30.549% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)20.342% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)2347% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)26.449% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Offense1630.519.846.3%4.031.4203931522414.746%54%49%44%16%.24
UK Defense1226.422.646%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Defense1620.325.838%2.571.8 - - - - - 50%50%42%34%21%-.01
UK Offense122331.741.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas1626:4219.843%54%5.444.31.41.86.22.5131.4
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Offense1646% (98)49% (16)32.6152.24.725 (41).13 (69)2.95 (84)67% (106)11% (97)0.91 (96)
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (122) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Defense1650% (59)42% (61) - - - - -.04 (3)2.79 (33)55% (2)14% (8)0.72 (3)
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (31)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (71)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Offense1654% (34)44% (43)19.629.5240.98.212.335 (3)12 (85).33 (34)1.7 (28)32% (71)38% (9).51 (7)5% (41)2.1 (57)
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (27)29% (109)31% (83).3 (68)5% (95)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Defense1650% (79)34% (7) - - - - - - 20 (2).04 (3)1.4 (14)33% (53)28% (35).14 (7)8% (17)1.6 (3)
UK Offense1246% (97)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (10)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (46)

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 17.89  #14
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.54  #31
Texas's Defense Rating: 1.65  #14
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65%  #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2  #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 17.89   Kentucky: 7.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 16.2   Kentucky: 1.8




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 7.415  #45
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.41  #42
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.38  #42
2025 Talent Rating: 896.00  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 25  #23
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #66
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 29
Kentucky 19


Projected Total Points: 48
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Kentucky13Texas16Texas -12.5Kentucky45.5Under
202411/23Texas31Kentucky14Texas -18.5Kentucky47.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky020 Overs
Texas202 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#14) TEX at (#45) UK
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTEXUK
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #14 #45
SP+SP+ #17 #66
Perf GradeGrade #13 #75
OffenseOff #25 #89
DefenseDef #25 #42
Spec TeamsST #41 #112
TalentTal #5 #26
Blue ChipsBC% #6 #23
Texas Notes
(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report
Kentucky Notes
(12/16) Bateman is a terrible DC. Lost play calling
(12/15) Finish 2 game L streak, Def fell apart. Stoops fired
(12/12) Hired DC Jay Bateman, was DC a Tex A&M
(12/4) Hired Joe Sloan at OC, was at LSU under BK
(12/1) Hired Oregon OC Will Stein, who played at L'ville
(11/30) Stoops fired after 5-7 season and L'ville blowout
(11/9) 2 game win streak, killed Gators. Could bowl?
(11/5) No P4 home wins since Sept '23, 4-19 overall
(11/1) Great W @ Aub. Ugly game, Def played great
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(10/18) OG'd UT 395 - 179 and lost?! QB Boley looked decent
(10/5) Now 1-11 in last 12 SEC games post UGA game
Kentucky Injury Report
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffUK Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #25 #42
SuccessSuc #27 #111
ExplosiveExp #47 #9
PPAPPA #39 #62
PowerPwr #31 #42
SP+SP+ #30 #48
Pts POPPO #54 #31
HavocHav #77 #56
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffUK Def
Run GameRun #55 #26
Run SuccessRSuc #16 #122
Run ExplRExp #96 #24
PPAExp #69 #75
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #84 #67
Stuff RateStuff #101 #48
TackleTak -  #27
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffUK Def
Pass GamePass #15 #109
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #75
Pass ExplPExl #28 #27
PPAExp #34 #46
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #45 #24
F7 HavocF7 #97 #32
DB HavocDB #41 #95
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffTEX Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #89 #25
SuccessSuc #89 #22
ExplosiveExp #123 #1
PPAPPA #118 #3
PowerPwr #42 #14
SP+SP+ #80 #18
Pts POPPO #104 #3
HavocHav #121 #4
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #90 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #31 #61
Run ExplRExp #133 #3
PPAExp #107 #3
Run BlockR Blk #47 -
OL YdsOLY #71 #33
Stuff RateStuff #78 #31
TackleTak -  #16
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #117 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #123 #7
Pass ExplPExl #10 #14
PPAExp #117 #3
Pass Block/RushP Blk #54 #18
F7 HavocF7 #120 #8
DB HavocDB #103 #17
Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 8
Texas 12.5 (45.5)
Texas won at Kentucky this year (16-13)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Kentucky last year (16-13)
Texas beat Kentucky in 2024 (31-14)

  
TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning24840461%31632677.8
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)81173%85107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Arch Manning92399104.360
Christian Clark5523624.322
CJ Baxter Jr.5419603.618
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo54834715.475
DeAndre Moore Jr.38532414.046
Parker Livingstone29516617.883
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)28408314.640

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jelani McDonald804013
Michael Taaffe701101
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Liona Lefau682003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons431612152
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Brad Spence (Tr)216320
Ethan Burke407321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kade Phillips222006
Graceson Littleton463006
Malik Muhammad303114

UK's OC Bush Hamdan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cutter Boley19830166%216015127.2
Zach Calzada (Tr)285848%238024.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)165725124.420
Dante Dowdell (Tr)11256035.079
Jason Patterson5722513.929
Cutter Boley668521.330
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Law (Tr)53540310.271
Hardley Gilmore IV (Tr)28313111.245
Willie Rodriguez23310113.553
Josh Kattus17195211.534

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Bryant762001
Daveren Rayner697224
Alex Afari Jr.617361
J.Q. Hardaway582105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steven Soles Jr.115432
Mi'Quise Grace (Tr)317462
Lorenzo Cowan (Tr)135300
Tavion Gadson284330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.Q. Hardaway582105
Daveren Rayner697224
Terhyon Nichols181024