Texas at Kentucky Game Matchup
Texas logo Texas Longhorns at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Commonwealth Stadium - Lexington, KY  (SEC)

 
Longhorns (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 33 - 15 (24 - 13 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 2.1 (#9)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
UK coming off BYE
TEX is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas -21   (SP+ TEX -21.5)
Projected Score: TEX: 32 - UK: 11 (46)
TEX Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
TEX Travel: 925 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (77 - 73)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#107)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Texas at Ohio State+3.551.5
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-36
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-45
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Texas vs Sam Houston-48.5
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-6.5
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma-12
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-21
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-24.5
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-25.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+1.5
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-21.5
Sat 11/29 Texas vs Texas A&M-9

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Kentucky vs Toledo-11.50.0
Sat 9/6 Kentucky vs Ole Miss+10.5
Sat 9/13 Kentucky vs Eastern Michigan-22
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Kentucky at South Carolina+13.5
Sat 10/4 Kentucky at Georgia+25
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Kentucky vs Texas+21
Sat 10/25 Kentucky vs Tennessee+9.5
Sat 11/1 Kentucky at Auburn+14.5
Sat 11/8 Kentucky vs Florida+12
Sat 11/15 Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech-28.5
Sat 11/22 Kentucky at Vanderbilt+2.5
Sat 11/29 Kentucky at Louisville+9.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)3349% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)15.342% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)20.647% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)22.149% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Offense163323.846.3%4.031.4203931522414.746%54%49%44%16%.24
UK Defense1222.117.646%3.441.3 - - - - - 58%42%49%42%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Defense1615.313.338%2.571.8 - - - - - 50%50%42%34%21%-.01
UK Offense1220.621.941.5%3.491.919331146185454%46%47%35%19%.09

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas1626:4219.843%54%5.444.31.41.86.22.5131.4
Kentucky1229:3219.434%44%6.352.11.91.35.61.8227
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Offense1646% (98)49% (16)32.6152.24.725 (41).13 (69)2.95 (84)67% (106)11% (97)0.91 (96)
UK Defense1258% (129)49% (122) - - - - .14 (75)3 (67)78% (101)12% (32)0.88 (24)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Defense1650% (59)42% (61) - - - - -.04 (3)2.79 (33)55% (2)14% (8)0.72 (3)
UK Offense1254% (37)47% (31)36.7146.4411 (116).05 (107)3.02 (71)73% (71)13% (120)0.73 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Offense1654% (34)44% (43)19.629.5240.98.212.335 (3)12 (85).33 (34)1.7 (28)32% (71)38% (9).51 (7)5% (41)2.1 (57)
UK Defense1242% (7)42% (75) - - - - - - 10 (66).19 (46)1.5 (27)29% (109)31% (83).3 (68)5% (95)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Defense1650% (79)34% (7) - - - - - - 20 (2).04 (3)1.4 (14)33% (53)28% (35).14 (7)8% (17)1.6 (3)
UK Offense1246% (97)35% (123)13.926184.87.113.315 (98)17 (127).13 (117)1.9 (10)33% (92)28% (104).18 (114)7% (103)2.1 (46)

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 30.73 #3
Texas's Offense Rating: 25.37 #12
Texas's Defense Rating: -5.36 #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1094.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 58% #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.4 #5
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.4 #16
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.0 #1

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 30.73   Kentucky: 7.62

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 26.4   Kentucky: 4.7




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 7.62 #52
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.20 #54
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.66 #43
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 4.6 - 7.4
Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #43
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Texas Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.8
Defense: 15.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 13.3

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 32
Kentucky 11

Projected Total Points: 46
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Texas31Kentucky14TexasTexas -18.5Kentucky47.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky010 Overs
Texas101 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#3) Texas Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 30.73 #3
Offense Rating: 25.37 #12
Defense Rating: -5.36 #1
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.4 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.4 #16
Defense SP+ Rating: 9.0 #1
Talent Rating: 1094.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 58% #6
Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.03 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Good Pass Success 44%
Good OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 2.57 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Texas Notes
(5/19) Added QB Caldwell (Troy) post spring
(5/19) DL added 5 via portal, TE Endries (Cal) big add
(5/11) Least exp'd OL in SEC, only 1/5 starters back
(5/2) CB Muhammad, S Taaffe both top 10 via PFF
(4/30) DE Simmons (PFF #1 DE) dynamic pass rusher
(4/4) LB Anthony Hill #1 LB via PFF
(3/18) RBs Wisner great, Baxter health? Deep
(3/18) WRs lost top 2, lots of talent. Ready?
(3/18) Def great LY, DL rebuild, DB's needed
(1/18) Sark a top coach, ext'd through '31
Texas     Ratings Matchup     Kentucky
Power #3
#52
Off #12
#54
Def #1
#43
Talent #5
#25
SP+ #5
#43
SP+ Off #16
#79
SP+ Def #1
#31

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Kentucky last year (31-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TEX | UK
Depth Chart: TEX | UK
Rosters: TEX | UK
(#52) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.62 #52
Offense Rating: 16.20 #54
Defense Rating: 10.66 #43
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.7 #43
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31
Talent Rating: 876.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Expected Record: 4.6 - 7.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.49 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Kentucky Notes
(5/5) UK 2-10 run in SEC home games & 0-7 streak
(4/4) OG Joshua Braun a top G via PFF
(3/24) Portal DL Gusta (WSU)/Grace (S Dak) big
(3/22) Added 13 players that started LY via portal
(3/18) Portal QB Calzada (Inc Word/A&M) can sling
(3/18) RBs Wilcox good, Dowdell (Neb) added
(3/18) WR rebuild, bad LY. 4 Portals. Big jump TY?
(3/18) OL rebuild 1/5 back, 5 portal adds. No clue
(3/18) Def good LY, new DE's. DB's OK LY, better TY?
(3/18) Tons of new faces, portals. Awful QB play LY


  
Texas's OC Kyle Flood
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)14122463%16081387.2
Arch Manning619068%9389210.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner226106454.743
Jerrick Gibson7837744.825
Arch Manning2510844.367
Ryan Wingo5100020.055
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jack Endries (Tr)56623211.157
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)48525610.962
DeAndre Moore Jr.39455711.749
Ryan Wingo27423215.775

View Texas's Full Roster
Texas's DC Pete Kwiatkowski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Hill Jr.11317841
Michael Taaffe7862110
Liona Lefau635202
Jaylon Guilbeau586103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons4814992
Anthony Hill Jr.11317841
Trey Moore3611761
Brad Spence (Tr)556511
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Taaffe7862110
Malik Muhammad361008
Ethan Burke279214

Kentucky's OC Bush Hamdan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zach Calzada (Tr)31247166%34323297.3
Cutter Boley265349%338246.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan (Tr)15381335.338
Dante Dowdell (Tr)143614124.338
Jamarion Wilcox9259026.450
Zach Calzada (Tr)8323052.833
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javian Hester14315122.590
Jay Maclin13313424.183
Seth McGowan (Tr)23277312.043
Troy Stellato (Tr)26266110.234

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landyn Watson (Tr)664030
Jordan Lovett631001
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
J.Q. Hardaway470003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameron Olds (Tr)427621
Alex Afari Jr.6211211
Sam Greene (Tr)153120
David Gusta (Tr)203163
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols100005
David Gusta (Tr)203163
J.Q. Hardaway470003