Purdue at Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview
Purdue logo   Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Wolverines  Michigan logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Michigan -21 (48.5) (-1800)  Open: -20.5
Michigan 21 - Purdue: 16  (Big Ten)

 
Boilermakers (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (16 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
MICH is playing their 5th straight game
PUR is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Michigan -25.5  (SP+ MICH -19)

Projected Score: PUR: 11 - MICH: 37 (48)
MICH Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
PUR Travel: 207 miles
Wolverines (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Purdue's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Purdue vs Ball State-16.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Purdue vs Southern Illinois-19.552.0W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Purdue vs USC+20.559.5L 17 - 33UY
Sat 9/20 Purdue at Notre Dame+24.551.5L 30 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Purdue vs Illinois+7.555.5L 27 - 43ON
Sat 10/11 Purdue at Minnesota+7.549.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 10/18 Purdue at Northwestern+3.047.5L 0 - 19UN
Sat 10/25 Purdue vs Rutgers-2.560.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 11/1 Purdue at Michigan+21.048.5L 16 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Purdue vs Ohio State+29.549.5L 10 - 34UY
Sat 11/15 Purdue at Washington+14.551.5L 13 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Purdue vs Indiana+28.553.5L 3 - 56ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Michigan vs New Mexico-36.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+3.047.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.542.5W 63 - 3OY
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-17.542.5W 24 - 10UN
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC+3.058.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-4.550.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-13.547.5W 31 - 20ON
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-21.048.5W 21 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.041.5W 24 - 22ON
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-14.046.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+9.543.5L 9 - 27UN
Wed 12/31 Michigan vs Texas+7.050.0L 27 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)18.842% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)31.849% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)27.541% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)20.438% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MICH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Offense1218.815.840.8%3.341.615299116184446%53%42%40%22%.11
MICH Defense1320.413.338.3%3.481.2 - - - - - 42%57%38%39%19%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Defense1231.834.449.3%4.820.4 - - - - - 53%47%49%50%12%.39
MICH Offense1327.529.240.1%4.181.5152721491234.560%39%41%40%15%.1

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Purdue1226:5014.631%28%5.551.81.60.45.21.8026.8
Michigan1328:5715.243%71%3.736.81.51.25.62.4230
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Offense1246% (94)42% (90)28.8115.549 (125).04 (108)3.04 (65)59% (126)14% (128)0.8 (130)
MICH Defense1342% (1)38% (18) - - - - .04 (24)2.72 (24)82% (120)11% (50)0.85 (11)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Defense1253% (96)49% (120) - - - - .32 (134)3.39 (120)76% (79)8% (109)1.15 (124)
MICH Offense1360% (9)41% (101)33.3148.54.518 (78).1 (86)3 (80)84% (7)10% (73)0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Offense1253% (40)40% (93)15.827.4183.96.711.713 (116)9 (48).16 (103)1.5 (92)32% (78)31% (72).49 (14)8% (118)2.1 (29)
MICH Defense1357% (134)39% (42) - - - - - - 11 (52).21 (56)1.6 (71)36% (12)28% (28).27 (54)8% (10)2.2 (109)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Defense1247% (40)50% (129) - - - - - - 4 (125).48 (130)1.6 (88)28% (115)41% (134).63 (134)4% (125)2.1 (90)
MICH Offense1339% (126)40% (92)13.822.5123.35.5911 (122)12 (85).12 (119)1.4 (131)33% (90)30% (92).26 (96)5% (51)1.7 (133)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -12.65  #112
Purdue's Offense Rating: 7.37  #107
Purdue's Defense Rating: 20.02  #108
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00  #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.1  #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.9  #104
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #90

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -12.65   Michigan: 16.29

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -6.1   Michigan: 12.4




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 16.29  #21
Michigan's Offense Rating: 16.26  #52
Michigan's Defense Rating: 1.08  #13
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50  #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9  #48
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.0  #15

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 37
Purdue 11


Projected Total Points: 48
Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.2
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.3

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Michigan21Purdue16Michigan -21Purdue48.5Under
202311/04Michigan41Purdue13Michigan -32.5Purdue52.5Over
202212/03Michigan43Purdue22Michigan -16Michigan53.0Over
201709/23Purdue10Michigan28Michigan -13Michigan51.0Under
201210/06Purdue13Michigan44
201110/29Michigan36Purdue14
201011/13Purdue16Michigan27
200911/07Michigan36Purdue38
200811/01Purdue48Michigan42
200710/13Michigan48Purdue21
200410/23Purdue14Michigan16
200310/25Michigan31Purdue3
200210/19Purdue21Michigan23
200110/13Michigan24Purdue10
200010/06Purdue32Michigan31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan1222 Overs
Purdue322 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 61 - 31 - 20 - 1
Road Teams6 - 93 - 11 - 02 - 1

(#112) PUR at (#21) MICH
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPURMICH
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #112 #21
SP+SP+ #90 #25
Perf GradeGrade #125 #32
OffenseOff #112 #47
DefenseDef #134 #31
Spec TeamsST #6 #3
TalentTal #65 #8
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #16
Purdue Notes
(12/18) DC Mike Scherer fired after one season
(11/28) Lost 10 straight to finish, only 3 one score games. Woof
(11/5) 0-17 vs P4 since 2024, 3 of last 4 by one score
(11/3) RB1 Devin Mockobee out for season (ankle)
(10/24) QB R. Browne doubtful vs Rutgers, Singleton meh
(9/22) Punter McAllister is a weapon, one of CFB best
(9/21) Off is fiesty, QB Brown is good. Def outmatched
(8/30) Brown torched Ball St 300+, Run Off awful
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
Purdue Injury Report
Michigan Notes
(12/10) Sherrone Moore fired for cause. Messy situation
(11/18) RB Justice Haynes out regular season (foot inj)
(11/16) Keep eking by B1G bottom feeders. Overrated
(10/18) Dominated UW up front both sides, Def was great
(10/12) Off is terrible, will not score vs Def w/ a pulse
(9/21) Skill positions on outside both Off & Def are bad
(9/20) Huge win at Neb, Run Off great, Run Def better
(9/14) Underwood unleashed, Run Off awful so far
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
Michigan Injury Report
Purdue on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffMICH Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #112 #31
SuccessSuc #96 #28
ExplosiveExp #117 #73
PPAPPA #112 #40
PowerPwr #107 #13
SP+SP+ #104 #15
Pts POPPO #115 #36
HavocHav #131 #23
Purdue Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #103 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #90 #18
Run ExplRExp #130 #11
PPAExp #108 #24
Run BlockR Blk #110 -
OL YdsOLY #65 #24
Stuff RateStuff #97 #61
TackleTak -  #32
Purdue Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #76 #66
Pass SuccessPSuc #93 #42
Pass ExplPExl #92 #71
PPAExp #103 #56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #109 #30
F7 HavocF7 #128 #50
DB HavocDB #118 #10
Michigan on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMICH OffPUR Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #47 #134
SuccessSuc #102 #129
ExplosiveExp #133 #112
PPAPPA #113 #134
PowerPwr #52 #108
SP+SP+ #48 #90
Pts POPPO #45 #134
HavocHav #58 #125
Michigan Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #16 #132
Run SuccessRSuc #101 #120
Run ExplRExp #91 #124
PPAExp #86 #134
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #80 #120
Stuff RateStuff #27 #106
TackleTak -  #124
Michigan Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMICH OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #92 #129
Pass SuccessPSuc #92 #129
Pass ExplPExl #131 #88
PPAExp #119 #130
Pass Block/RushP Blk #74 #117
F7 HavocF7 #73 #109
DB HavocDB #51 #125
Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
Michigan -21.0 (48.5)
Michigan won vs Purdue this year (21-16)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Purdue last year (21-16)
Michigan beat Purdue in 2023 (41-13)

  
PUR's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)19933859%21539106.4
Malachi Singleton (Tr)386459%439526.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee12552144.232
Antonio Harris6930524.441
Malachi Thomas (Tr)5324304.657
Ryan Browne (Tr)6620643.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Jackson III (Tr)6357019.031
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)34505414.936
E.J. Horton (Tr)27289110.728
Corey Smith (Tr)14237116.960

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)1103005
Mani Powell (Tr)11012532
Charles Correa (Tr)778342
Myles Slusher632103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mani Powell (Tr)11012532
C.J. Nunnally4211581
Charles Correa (Tr)778342
Jamarrion Harkless132340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hudauri Hines322008
Smiley Bradford305026
Tony Grimes (Tr)340005

MICH's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood20233560%24281197.2
Jadyn Davis020%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Marshall150932106.265
Justice Haynes (Tr)121857107.175
Bryce Underwood8839264.537
Bryson Kuzdzal7632644.322
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Andrew Marsh45651414.569
Donaven McCulley (Tr)39588315.144
Marlin Klein24248110.327
Semaj Morgan20223111.232

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Rolder737221
Ernest Hausmann686141
TJ Metcalf (Tr)583004
Brandyn Hillman493003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrick Moore29101033
Jaishawn Barham3210454
Jimmy Rolder737221
Cole Sullivan445201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry3300010
Jyaire Hill363105
TJ Metcalf (Tr)583004