Purdue at Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview
Purdue logo Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Wolverines(#21)Michigan logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Michigan Stadium - Ann Arbor, MI  (Big Ten)

 
Boilermakers (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 17 (27 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 9.1 (#130)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
MICH is playing their 5th straight game
PUR is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Michigan -29.5   (SP+ MICH -21)

Projected Score: PUR: 10 - MICH: 40 (50)
MICH Win prob: 99% | Cover: 51%
PUR Travel: 207 miles
Wolverines (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 15 (49 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Purdue's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Purdue vs Ball State-16.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Purdue vs Southern Illinois-19.552.0W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Purdue vs USC+20.559.5L 17 - 33UY
Sat 9/20 Purdue at Notre Dame+26.554.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Purdue vs Illinois+22.5
Sat 10/11 Purdue at Minnesota+20
Sat 10/18 Purdue vs Northwestern+6.5
Sat 10/25 Purdue vs Rutgers+11.5
Sat 11/1 Purdue at Michigan+29.5
Sat 11/8 Purdue vs Ohio State+31.5
Sat 11/15 Purdue at Washington+23.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Purdue vs Indiana+22.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Michigan vs New Mexico-36.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+3.047.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.542.5W 63 - 3OY
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-2.546.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-16
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC+5.5
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-8.5
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-11.5
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-29.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-20.5
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-9.5
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+4.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#78 (.17)49% (34)27.349% (43)2.69 (99)12050% (32)2723.58 (90)#90 (.18)43% (95)16.744% (92)43% (88)3.31 (60)38.31.30
MICH#41 (.3)40% (99)36.739% (103)3.02 (66)24341% (90)2094.8 (37)#42 (.05)39% (65)14.738% (59)41% (70)4 (89)47.30.72
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)42% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)49% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Offense327.327.349.2%3.581.3253911202723.252%47%49%50%18%.17
MICH Defense314.71038.8%42 - - - - - 44%55%38%41%20%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Defense316.716.743.2%3.310 - - - - - 53%47%44%43%16%.18
MICH Offense336.748.539.9%4.80.7224522432096.150%50%39%41%10%.3

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Purdue329:392551%83%3.338.31.3072.7028.7
Michigan329:1722.345%25%547.30.727.72.7031.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Offense352% (61)49% (43)37119.73.25 (62).14 (68)2.69 (99)65% (95)13% (121)0.91 (83)
MICH Defense344% (27)38% (59) - - - - .01 (52)2.78 (68)57% (28)12% (38)0.76 (26)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Defense353% (94)44% (92) - - - - .11 (92)3.16 (109)69% (66)12% (42)0.79 (34)
MICH Offense350% (71)39% (103)39.7242.76.112 (3).27 (35)3.02 (66)75% (52)7% (40)1.3 (18)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Offense347% (77)50% (32)19.330.3271.7914.15 (54)4 (121).24 (77)1.6 (43)31% (66)41% (26).3 (78)5% (65)1.9 (82)
MICH Defense355% (107)41% (70) - - - - - - 5 (6).12 (43)1.3 (25)29% (109)32% (88).37 (94)7% (34)1.9 (58)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Defense347% (47)43% (88) - - - - - - 0.26 (85)1.7 (96)32% (81)26% (45).22 (59)4% (106)2.2 (102)
MICH Offense350% (62)41% (90)15.326.7209.37.913.72 (102)1 (23).34 (61)1.8 (18)32% (89)33% (54).54 (33)3% (26)2.1 (50)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -5.24 #92
Purdue's Offense Rating: 10.07 #82
Purdue's Defense Rating: 15.31 #103
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.9 - 9.1
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #78
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #91
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -5.24   Michigan: 25.145

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -3.2   Michigan: 17.4




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 25.145 #16
Michigan's Offense Rating: 24.00 #22
Michigan's Defense Rating: -3.90 #12
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50 #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4 #17
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #46
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Purdue Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.3
Defense: 16.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 40
Purdue 10


Total Points: 50

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 48.5
Defense: 14.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04Michigan41Purdue13MichiganMichigan -32.5Purdue52.5Over
202212/03Michigan43Purdue22MichiganMichigan -16Michigan53.0Over
201709/23Purdue10Michigan28MichiganMichigan -13Michigan51.0Under
201210/06Purdue13Michigan44Michigan
201110/29Michigan36Purdue14Michigan
201011/13Purdue16Michigan27Michigan
200911/07Michigan36Purdue38Purdue
200811/01Purdue48Michigan42Purdue
200710/13Michigan48Purdue21Michigan
200410/23Purdue14Michigan16Michigan
200310/25Michigan31Purdue3Michigan
200210/19Purdue21Michigan23Michigan
200110/13Michigan24Purdue10Michigan
200010/06Purdue32Michigan31Purdue
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan1122 Overs
Purdue311 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 61 - 21 - 10 - 1
Road Teams6 - 82 - 11 - 01 - 1

(#92) Purdue Info
Power Rating: -5.24 #92
Offense Rating: 10.07 #82
Defense Rating: 15.31 #103
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #78
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #91
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70
Talent Rating: 754.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 2.9 - 9.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Good Offense Success Rate of 49%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Good Run Success 49%
Good Pass Success 50%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.31 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Purdue has lost 6 straight
Purdue has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Purdue Notes
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
(3/20) RB Mockobee starter LY, hopefully more TY
(3/20) WR rebuild. 5 portal adds (3 P4/2 G5)
(3/20) OL rebuild 0/5 back. 3 UNLV portals w/ Odom
(3/20) Def awful LY, 11 portals. New DC (UNLV)
(3/20) New OC Henson was USC's OC past 2 yrs
(3/20) New DC Scherer from UNLV w/ Odom

Purdue Highlights
Purdue offense is good on 3rd downs
Purdue commits very few Penalties (#13)
Purdue defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

Purdue Deficiencies
Purdue Can Not Run the Ball (#107)
Purdue throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Purdue Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#117)
Purdue has a bad defensive line (#109)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMICHPUR
OverallOver#19#58
OffenseOff#36#48
DefenseDef#18#75
Special TeamsST#10#29
PassingPass#75#32
RushingRush#18#55
Run BlockRBLK#32#74
Pass BlockPBLK#35#103
Route RunningWR Rt#60#37
TacklingTkl#7#69
Run DefenseR Def#18#75
Pass Rush DefPRush#49#100
Coverage DefCov#11#59

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Purdue in 2023 (41-13)
Michigan beat Purdue in 2022 (43-22)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: PUR | MICH
Depth Chart: PUR | MICH
Rosters: PUR | MICH
(#16) Michigan Info
Power Rating: 25.145 #16
Offense Rating: 24.00 #22
Defense Rating: -3.90 #12
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4 #17
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.5 #46
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3 #4
Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50 #16
Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.8 PPO
Poor Run Success 39%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 39%
Poor in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Michigan has lost 5 straight
Michigan has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Michigan Notes
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
(7/28) Schedule is easy, miss most outside OSU
(7/12) OL 3/5 back. Has talent but depth a concern TY
(7/12) Signed J Garcia (ECU) late, Keene health?
(5/5) Def F7 still great, but lost top 5 tacklers, leaders
(5/5) HC Moore suspended for CMU/Neb games
(5/2) S Rod Moore a top 10 DB via PFF

Michigan Highlights
Michigan is Undefeated at Home

Michigan has Really Good Running Game (#10)
Michigan offense is explosive (#10)
Michigan does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#16)

Michigan defense does not give up big plays (#20)
Michigan has a great TO Margin (#28)
Michigan defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

Michigan Deficiencies
Michigan run game is really bad (#103)


  
Purdue's OC Josh Henson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)568864%786548.9
Malachi Singleton (Tr)2367%29009.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee5823034.017
Ryan Browne (Tr)255922.426
Antonio Harris93604.017
Malachi Thomas (Tr)102102.17
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Arhmad Branch7167223.949
Michael Jackson III (Tr)14149110.631
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)8130216.333
E.J. Horton (Tr)10125012.521

View Purdue's Full Roster
Purdue's DC Michael Scherer
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Correa (Tr)204211
Myles Slusher181001
Mani Powell (Tr)172101
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)171000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Charles Correa (Tr)204211
C.J. Nunnally42240
Jamarrion Harkless41200
Mani Powell (Tr)172101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hudauri Hines91002
Charles Correa (Tr)204211
Mani Powell (Tr)172101

Michigan's OC Chip Lindsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood468058%628217.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Justice Haynes (Tr)4938857.975
Jordan Marshall3010923.615
Bryce Underwood1410827.728
Jasper Parker94515.011
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donaven McCulley (Tr)10158015.844
Semaj Morgan9121113.432
Channing Goodwin6107017.839
Marlin Klein7101114.427

View Michigan's Full Roster
Michigan's DC Don Martindale
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ernest Hausmann201020
Jimmy Rolder161001
Brandyn Hillman131001
Cole Sullivan132200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cole Sullivan132200
Jaishawn Barham123210
Dominic Nichols62210
Troy Bowles (Tr)42110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jyaire Hill112102
Zeke Berry20002
Jaden Mangham71102