Purdue at Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview
Purdue logo Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Wolverines(#21)Michigan logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Michigan -21 (48.5) (-1800)  Open: -20.5
Michigan 21 - Purdue: 16  (Big Ten)

 
Boilermakers (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (16 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
MICH is playing their 5th straight game
PUR is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Michigan -29  (SP+ MICH -21)

Projected Score: PUR: 8 - MICH: 37 (46)
MICH Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
PUR Travel: 207 miles
Wolverines (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Biff Pogi (Int) ( - )
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Purdue's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Purdue vs Ball State-16.550.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Purdue vs Southern Illinois-19.552.0W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/13 Purdue vs USC+20.559.5L 17 - 33UY
Sat 9/20 Purdue at Notre Dame+24.551.5L 30 - 56ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Purdue vs Illinois+7.555.5L 27 - 43ON
Sat 10/11 Purdue at Minnesota+7.549.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 10/18 Purdue at Northwestern+3.047.5L 0 - 19UN
Sat 10/25 Purdue vs Rutgers-2.560.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 11/1 Purdue at Michigan+21.048.5L 16 - 21UY
Sat 11/8 Purdue vs Ohio State+29.549.5L 10 - 34UY
Sat 11/15 Purdue at Washington+14.551.5L 13 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Purdue vs Indiana+28.553.5L 3 - 56ON

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Michigan vs New Mexico-36.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+3.047.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.542.5W 63 - 3OY
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-17.542.5W 24 - 10UN
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC+3.058.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-4.550.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-13.547.5W 31 - 20ON
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-21.048.5W 21 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.041.5W 24 - 22ON
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-14.046.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+9.543.5L 9 - 27UN
Wed 12/31 Michigan vs Texas+7.050.0L 27 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#103 (.11)43% (62)18.843% (72)2.94 (69)12643% (53)2173.06 (120)#125 (.27)48% (131)31.849% (128)48% (128)4.03 (105)46.81.80.8
MICH#45 (.2)45% (36)27.548% (17)3.25 (20)19843% (59)1713.67 (75)#39 (.1)42% (70)20.441% (51)44% (102)3.67 (69)31.81.11.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)42% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)49% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)41% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)38% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Offense1218.815.842.8%3.061.819344126217447%52%43%43%16%.11
MICH Defense1320.413.341.9%3.671.3 - - - - - 46%53%41%44%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Defense1231.834.448.3%4.030.8 - - - - - 55%43%49%48%15%.27
MICH Offense1327.529.245.3%3.671.1193691981715.655%43%48%43%12%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Purdue1228:0119.338%60%4.846.81.80.85.32027.5
Michigan1327:1418.746%17%3.731.81.11.35.52.2030.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Offense1247% (97)43% (72)31.3126.4411 (78).15 (53)2.94 (69)56% (136)10% (89)1.04 (41)
MICH Defense1346% (20)41% (51) - - - - .04 (30)2.67 (24)61% (10)10% (53)0.81 (7)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Defense1255% (125)49% (128) - - - - .18 (114)3.25 (122)78% (112)10% (68)0.86 (18)
MICH Offense1355% (31)48% (17)35.3197.85.632 (23).22 (20)3.25 (20)75% (49)7% (23)0.98 (63)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Offense1252% (37)43% (53)19.833.7217.26.51115 (86)13 (132).14 (117)1.4 (117)32% (87)36% (17).36 (50)6% (73)1.9 (97)
MICH Defense1353% (117)44% (102) - - - - - - 13 (4).2 (52)1.3 (3)30% (103)32% (96).37 (107)7% (34)2 (64)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Defense1243% (13)48% (128) - - - - - - 4 (123).4 (123)1.6 (101)28% (126)32% (98).26 (59)6% (76)1.9 (33)
MICH Offense1343% (107)43% (59)13.822.8171.57.512.59 (106)7 (20).25 (68)1.5 (107)30% (39)32% (44).31 (67)4% (16)1.7 (132)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -11.30  #114
Purdue's Offense Rating: 4.53  #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 15.83  #116
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00  #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Purdue's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Purdue's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.8  #96
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2  #105
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.7  #94

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -11.30   Michigan: 19.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -7.8   Michigan: 13.6




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 19.24  #17
Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.47  #39
Michigan's Defense Rating: -4.41  #18
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50  #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6  #26
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8  #50
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.5  #12

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

Purdue's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 37
Purdue 8


Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Michigan 25
Purdue 13

Total Points: 38

Based on Entire Season
Michigan 31
Purdue 17

Total Points: 48
Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.2
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.3

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Michigan21Purdue16Michigan -21Purdue48.5Under
202311/04Michigan41Purdue13Michigan -32.5Purdue52.5Over
202212/03Michigan43Purdue22Michigan -16Michigan53.0Over
201709/23Purdue10Michigan28Michigan -13Michigan51.0Under
201210/06Purdue13Michigan44
201110/29Michigan36Purdue14
201011/13Purdue16Michigan27
200911/07Michigan36Purdue38
200811/01Purdue48Michigan42
200710/13Michigan48Purdue21
200410/23Purdue14Michigan16
200310/25Michigan31Purdue3
200210/19Purdue21Michigan23
200110/13Michigan24Purdue10
200010/06Purdue32Michigan31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan1222 Overs
Purdue322 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 61 - 31 - 20 - 1
Road Teams6 - 93 - 11 - 02 - 1

(#114) PUR at (#17) MICH
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPURMICH
Power RatePwr #114 #17
SP+SP+ #96 #26
Perf GradeGrade #125 #21
OffenseOff #113 #47
DefenseDef #130 #17
Spec TeamsST #6 #7
TalentTal #65 #8
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #16
Purdue Notes
(12/18) DC Mike Scherer fired after one season
(11/28) Lost 10 straight to finish, only 3 one score games. Woof
(11/5) 0-17 vs P4 since 2024, 3 of last 4 by one score
(11/3) RB1 Devin Mockobee out for season (ankle)
(10/24) QB R. Browne doubtful vs Rutgers, Singleton meh
(9/22) Punter McAllister is a weapon, one of CFB best
(9/21) Off is fiesty, QB Brown is good. Def outmatched
(8/30) Brown torched Ball St 300+, Run Off awful
(8/22) QB1 Ryan Browne (NC) won starting job
(7/20) 21 new starters from LY, DBs could be v good
(5/11) Least exp'd P4 OL in CFB & 91% exp via portals
(4/4) QB - Singleton (Ark) is small/shifty runner. Arm?
Purdue Injury Report
Michigan Notes
(12/10) Sherrone Moore fired for cause. Messy situation
(11/18) RB Justice Haynes out regular season (foot inj)
(11/16) Keep eking by B1G bottom feeders. Overrated
(10/18) Dominated UW up front both sides, Def was great
(10/12) Off is terrible, will not score vs Def w/ a pulse
(9/21) Skill positions on outside both Off & Def are bad
(9/20) Huge win at Neb, Run Off great, Run Def better
(9/14) Underwood unleashed, Run Off awful so far
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
Michigan Injury Report
Purdue on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffMICH Def
Perf GradePerf #113 #17
SuccessSuc #62 #70
ExplosiveExp #75 #7
PPAPPA #103 #39
PowerPwr #94 #18
SP+SP+ #105 #12
Pts POPPO #120 #69
HavocHav #79 #45
Purdue Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #97 #5
Run SuccessRSuc #72 #51
Run ExplRExp #41 #7
PPAExp #53 #30
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLY #69 #24
Stuff RateStuff #76 #94
TackleTak -  #13
Purdue Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
PUR OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #77 #52
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #102
Pass ExplPExl #117 #3
PPAExp #117 #52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #116 #30
F7 HavocF7 #89 #53
DB HavocDB #73 #34
Michigan on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMICH OffPUR Def
Perf GradePerf #47 #130
SuccessSuc #36 #131
ExplosiveExp #116 #49
PPAPPA #45 #125
PowerPwr #39 #116
SP+SP+ #50 #94
Pts POPPO #75 #105
HavocHav #9 #77
Michigan Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #24 #129
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #128
Run ExplRExp #63 #18
PPAExp #20 #114
Run BlockR Blk #38 -
OL YdsOLY #20 #122
Stuff RateStuff #8 #81
TackleTak -  #125
Michigan Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMICH OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #80 #122
Pass SuccessPSuc #59 #128
Pass ExplPExl #107 #101
PPAExp #68 #123
Pass Block/RushP Blk #49 #116
F7 HavocF7 #23 #68
DB HavocDB #16 #76
Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

PUR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 39°
Rematch from Week 10
Michigan -21.0 (48.5)
Michigan won vs Purdue this year (21-16)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Purdue in 2023 (41-13)
Michigan beat Purdue in 2022 (43-22)

  
PUR's OC Josh Henson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ryan Browne (Tr)19933859%21539106.4
Malachi Singleton (Tr)386459%439526.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee12552144.232
Antonio Harris6930524.441
Malachi Thomas (Tr)5324304.657
Ryan Browne (Tr)6620643.126
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Michael Jackson III (Tr)6357019.031
Nitro Tuggle (Tr)34505414.936
E.J. Horton (Tr)27289110.728
Corey Smith (Tr)14237116.960

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)1103005
Mani Powell (Tr)11012532
Charles Correa (Tr)778342
Myles Slusher632103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mani Powell (Tr)11012532
C.J. Nunnally4211581
Charles Correa (Tr)778342
Jamarrion Harkless132340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hudauri Hines322008
Smiley Bradford305026
Tahj Ra-El (Tr)1103005

MICH's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood17929361%2229967.6
Jadyn Davis020%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Marshall150932106.265
Justice Haynes (Tr)121857107.175
Bryce Underwood7432354.437
Bryson Kuzdzal5624444.422
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Andrew Marsh42641315.369
Donaven McCulley (Tr)35534315.344
Semaj Morgan19214111.332
Marlin Klein20209110.527

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Rolder697221
Ernest Hausmann686141
TJ Metcalf (Tr)513003
Brandyn Hillman483003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrick Moore29101033
Jaishawn Barham3210454
Jimmy Rolder697221
TJ Guy173220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry2800010
Jyaire Hill332105
Jaishawn Barham3210454