Michigan at Northwestern - 2025 Matchup Preview
Michigan logo   Michigan Wolverines vs Northwestern Wildcats  Northwestern logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Michigan -10 (41.5) (-410)  Open: -10.0
Michigan 24 - Northwestern: 22  (Big Ten)

 
Wolverines (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
MICH coming off BYE
Our Line: Michigan -10  (SP+ MICH -6.5)

Projected Score: MICH: 27 - NW: 17 (44)
MICH Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
MICH Travel: 417 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (7 - 6) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach David Braun (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (27 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#71)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Michigan's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Michigan vs New Mexico-36.552.5W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan at Oklahoma+3.047.5L 13 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Michigan vs Central Michigan-27.542.5W 63 - 3OY
Sat 9/20 Michigan at Nebraska-1.547.5W 30 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan vs Wisconsin-17.542.5W 24 - 10UN
Sat 10/11 Michigan at USC+3.058.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan vs Washington-4.550.5W 24 - 7UY
Sat 10/25 Michigan at Michigan State-13.547.5W 31 - 20ON
Sat 11/1 Michigan vs Purdue-21.048.5W 21 - 16UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan vs Northwestern-10.041.5W 24 - 22ON
Sat 11/22 Michigan at Maryland-14.046.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/29 Michigan vs Ohio State+9.543.5L 9 - 27UN
Wed 12/31 Michigan vs Texas+7.050.0L 27 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Northwestern's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Northwestern at Tulane+6.547.5L 3 - 23UN
Fri 9/5 Northwestern vs Western Illinois-30.548.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 9/13 Northwestern vs Oregon+25.550.5L 14 - 34UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Northwestern vs UCLA-6.045.5W 17 - 14UN
Sat 10/4 Northwestern vs UL Monroe-12.543.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 10/11 Northwestern at Penn State+20.546.5W 22 - 21UY
Sat 10/18 Northwestern vs Purdue-3.047.5W 19 - 0UY
Sat 10/25 Northwestern at Nebraska+7.544.5L 21 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/7 Northwestern at USC+14.554.5L 17 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Northwestern vs Michigan+10.041.5L 22 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 Northwestern vs Minnesota-4.041.0W 38 - 35ON
Sat 11/29 Northwestern at Illinois+7.044.5L 13 - 20UY
Fri 12/26 Northwestern vs Central Michigan-13.543.5W 34 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH#113 (.1)40% (102)27.541% (101)3 (80)14940% (92)1234.18 (45)#40 (.13)38% (28)20.438% (18)39% (42)3.48 (36)36.81.51.2
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)23.439% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)19.844% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Offense1327.526.440.1%4.181.5152721491234.560%39%41%40%15%.1
NW Defense1219.812.445%3.741.3 - - - - - 47%53%44%46%15%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Defense1320.424.438.3%3.481.2 - - - - - 42%57%38%39%19%.13
NW Offense1223.426.837.1%3.021.516285991863.445%54%39%36%19%.02

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan1328:5715.243%71%3.736.81.51.25.62.4230
Northwestern1229:491633%50%4.838.81.51.34.81.9328
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Offense1360% (9)41% (101)33.3148.54.518 (78).1 (86)3 (80)84% (7)10% (73)0.91 (91)
NW Defense1247% (26)44% (80) - - - - .07 (42)2.99 (63)69% (47)8% (107)0.86 (15)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Defense1342% (1)38% (18) - - - - .04 (24)2.72 (24)82% (120)11% (50)0.85 (11)
NW Offense1245% (106)39% (113)29.398.63.412 (114).07 (102)2.63 (124)66% (112)11% (98)1.1 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Offense1339% (126)40% (92)13.822.5123.35.5911 (122)12 (85).12 (119)1.4 (131)33% (90)30% (92).26 (96)5% (51)1.7 (133)
NW Defense1253% (110)46% (117) - - - - - - 10 (66).25 (77)1.4 (13)27% (128)35% (116).28 (55)7% (33)1.8 (24)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Defense1357% (134)39% (42) - - - - - - 11 (52).21 (56)1.6 (71)36% (12)28% (28).27 (54)8% (10)2.2 (109)
NW Offense1254% (31)36% (116)17.632.7186.15.710.67 (130)11 (72).02 (132)1.3 (134)35% (119)31% (79).2 (109)8% (121)1.8 (119)

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 15.18  #21
Michigan's Offense Rating: 16.26  #52
Michigan's Defense Rating: 1.08  #13
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50%  #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9  #48
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.0  #15

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 15.18   Northwestern: 3.915

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 12.4   Northwestern: 5.8




Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 3.915  #56
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 12.77  #70
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 10.74  #50
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Northwestern's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 6.3
Northwestern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.8  #51
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 27
Northwestern 17


Projected Total Points: 44
Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.8
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.4

Northwestern's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Northwestern22Michigan24Michigan -10Northwestern41.5Over
202411/23Michigan50Northwestern6Michigan -10.5Michigan35.5Over
202110/23Michigan33Northwestern7Michigan -23.5Michigan51.5Under
201809/29Northwestern17Michigan20Michigan -14.5Northwestern46.5Under
201510/10Michigan38Northwestern0Michigan -10Michigan37.0Over
201411/08Northwestern9Michigan10Northwestern -2Michigan0
201311/16Northwestern19Michigan27Northwestern -1.5Michigan0
201211/10Michigan38Northwestern31
201110/08Northwestern24Michigan42
200811/15Michigan14Northwestern21
200709/29Northwestern16Michigan28
200610/28Michigan17Northwestern3
200510/29Northwestern17Michigan33
200411/13Michigan42Northwestern20
200311/15Northwestern10Michigan41
200011/03Northwestern54Michigan51
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northwestern223 Overs
Michigan1452 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 95 - 23 - 22 - 0
Road Teams9 - 72 - 50 - 22 - 3

(#21) MICH at (#56) NW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMICHNW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #21 #56
SP+SP+ #25 #51
Perf GradeGrade #32 #44
OffenseOff #47 #31
DefenseDef #31 #73
Spec TeamsST #3 #97
TalentTal #8 #41
Blue ChipsBC% #16 #65
Michigan Notes
(12/10) Sherrone Moore fired for cause. Messy situation
(11/18) RB Justice Haynes out regular season (foot inj)
(11/16) Keep eking by B1G bottom feeders. Overrated
(10/18) Dominated UW up front both sides, Def was great
(10/12) Off is terrible, will not score vs Def w/ a pulse
(9/21) Skill positions on outside both Off & Def are bad
(9/20) Huge win at Neb, Run Off great, Run Def better
(9/14) Underwood unleashed, Run Off awful so far
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
Michigan Injury Report
Northwestern Notes
(11/22) Braun gets NW back to bowl. Great job & rebound
(11/16) Lost 3 straight but competitive in most. Improving
(10/19) Have now won 4 straight, 3 in B1G play. Improving
(10/19) Def shut out Purdue, Run Off great, Run Def good
(10/19) QB Stone has been JAG- though, must game control
(9/14) Good fight w/ Ducks but Off has zero expl
(9/9) Top RB Cam Porter out for the season, ouch
(8/30) Stone 4 Int vs Tulane, Run Off & Run Def awful
(7/23) QB is Stone (SMU), no depth, Lausch retired
(5/21) Can WR Wilde (FCS SDSU) bring hope?
(5/21) DL is light, but has exp and some pass rush
(5/21) CBs exp'd but avg, Safeties are good though
Northwestern Injury Report
Michigan on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffNW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #47 #73
SuccessSuc #102 #106
ExplosiveExp #133 #16
PPAPPA #113 #57
PowerPwr #52 #50
SP+SP+ #48 #30
Pts POPPO #45 #64
HavocHav #58 #77
Michigan Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffNW Def
Run GameRun #16 #94
Run SuccessRSuc #101 #80
Run ExplRExp #91 #15
PPAExp #86 #42
Run BlockR Blk #29 -
OL YdsOLY #80 #63
Stuff RateStuff #27 #40
TackleTak -  #100
Michigan Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffNW Def
Pass GamePass #92 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #92 #117
Pass ExplPExl #131 #13
PPAExp #119 #77
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #74 #39
F7 HavocF7 #73 #107
DB HavocDB #51 #33
Northwestern on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatNW OffMICH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #31 #31
SuccessSuc #123 #28
ExplosiveExp #101 #73
PPAPPA #129 #40
PowerPwr #70 #13
SP+SP+ #90 #15
Pts POPPO #127 #36
HavocHav #118 #23
Northwestern Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #53 #19
Run SuccessRSuc #113 #18
Run ExplRExp #20 #11
PPAExp #102 #24
Run BlockR Blk #15 -
OL YdsOLY #124 #24
Stuff RateStuff #129 #61
TackleTak -  #32
Northwestern Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatNW OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #67 #66
Pass SuccessPSuc #116 #42
Pass ExplPExl #134 #71
PPAExp #132 #56
Pass Block/RushP Blk #10 #30
F7 HavocF7 #98 #50
DB HavocDB #121 #10
Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wrigley Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Michigan 10.0 (41.5)
Michigan won at Northwestern this year (24-22)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Northwestern last year (24-22)
Michigan beat Northwestern in 2024 (50-6)

  
MICH's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood20233560%24281197.2
Jadyn Davis020%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Marshall150932106.265
Justice Haynes (Tr)121857107.175
Bryce Underwood8839264.537
Bryson Kuzdzal7632644.322
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Andrew Marsh45651414.569
Donaven McCulley (Tr)39588315.144
Marlin Klein24248110.327
Semaj Morgan20223111.232

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jimmy Rolder737221
Ernest Hausmann686141
TJ Metcalf (Tr)583004
Brandyn Hillman493003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrick Moore29101033
Jaishawn Barham3210454
Jimmy Rolder737221
Cole Sullivan445201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeke Berry3300010
Jyaire Hill363105
TJ Metcalf (Tr)583004

NW's OC Zach Lujan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Preston Stone (Tr)22237060%240017126.5
Ryan Boe2729%17012.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Komolafe190941115.056
Joseph Himon II9948614.937
Dashun Reeder22222110.179
Robby Preckel4214903.514
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Griffin Wilde (Tr)71880812.449
Hayden Eligon Ii37521314.138
Hunter Welcing28296210.636
Ricky Ahumaraeze10200020.035

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Robert Fitzgerald1066014
Mac Uihlein894000
Braydon Brus815344
Braden Turner522012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Hubbard2610850
Michael Kilbane428481
Anto Saka134320
Braydon Brus815344
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Fussell291009
Fred Davis II (Tr)221006
Ore Adeyi201005