New Mexico at Michigan - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Michigan -36.5 (52.5) (0) Open: -36.5 | 52.5
Michigan 34 - New Mexico: 17

Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)

Our Line: Michigan -23 (SP+ MICH -12)
Projected Score: UNM: 14 - MICH: 37 (50)
MICH Win prob: 94% | Cover: 38%
UNM Travel: 1326 miles, 2 hrs behind

Wolverines (9 - 4) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Sherrone Moore (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
MICH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	New Mexico at Michigan	+36.5	52.5	L 17 - 34	U	Y
Sat 9/6	New Mexico vs Idaho State	-17.5	60.0	W 32 - 22	U	N
Fri 9/12	New Mexico at UCLA	+15.5	52.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-16.5	53.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Fri 10/3	New Mexico at San José State	+1.5	58.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/11	New Mexico at Boise State	+14.5	58.5	L 25 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/18	New Mexico vs Nevada	-14.0	49.5	W 24 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/25	New Mexico vs Utah State	-3.0	61.5	W 33 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/1	New Mexico at UNLV	+3.5	61.5	W 40 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	New Mexico vs Colorado State	-15.5	53.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/22	New Mexico at Air Force	-3.5	53.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Fri 11/28	New Mexico vs San Diego State	+1.5	41.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/26	New Mexico vs Minnesota	+1.5	44.5	L 17 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Michigan's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Michigan vs New Mexico	-36.5	52.5	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/6	Michigan at Oklahoma	+3.0	47.5	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/13	Michigan vs Central Michigan	-27.5	42.5	W 63 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Michigan at Nebraska	-1.5	47.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Michigan vs Wisconsin	-17.5	42.5	W 24 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/11	Michigan at USC	+3.0	58.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/18	Michigan vs Washington	-4.5	50.5	W 24 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Michigan at Michigan State	-13.5	47.5	W 31 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/1	Michigan vs Purdue	-21.0	48.5	W 21 - 16	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Michigan vs Northwestern	-10.0	41.5	W 24 - 22	O	N
Sat 11/22	Michigan at Maryland	-14.0	46.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Michigan vs Ohio State	+9.5	43.5	L 9 - 27	U	N
Wed 12/31	Michigan vs Texas	+7.0	50.0	L 27 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)	27.1	53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)	22.3	50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8
MICH	#113 (.1)	40% (102)	27.5	41% (101)	3 (80)	149	40% (92)	123	4.18 (45)	#40 (.13)	38% (28)	20.4	38% (18)	39% (42)	3.48 (36)	36.8	1.5	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MICH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	27.1	27.5	48.9%	3.83	1.6	25	485	254	231	6.7	52%	48%	53%	44%	12%	.31
MICH Defense	13	20.4	13.3	38.3%	3.48	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	38%	39%	19%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	22.3	26.3	50.4%	4.64	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	51%	14%	.34
MICH Offense	13	27.5	29.2	40.1%	4.18	1.5	15	272	149	123	4.5	60%	39%	41%	40%	15%	.1

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	28:52	24.7	43%	68%	9.3	81.5	1.6	0.8	3.9	1.6	1	26.8
Michigan	13	28:57	15.2	43%	71%	3.7	36.8	1.5	1.2	5.6	2.4	2	30

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	52% (55)	53% (3)	37.8	254	6.7	37 (6)	.37 (1)	3.81 (1)	81% (20)	5% (1)	1.1 (21)
MICH Defense	13	42% (1)	38% (18)	-	-	-	-	.04 (24)	2.72 (24)	82% (120)	11% (50)	0.85 (11)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	54% (106)	50% (125)	-	-	-	-	.2 (110)	3.26 (103)	71% (52)	8% (118)	0.97 (64)
MICH Offense	13	60% (9)	41% (101)	33.3	148.5	4.5	18 (78)	.1 (86)	3 (80)	84% (7)	10% (73)	0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	48% (77)	44% (40)	18.8	32.5	230.7	7.1	12.3	12 (118)	12 (85)	.24 (77)	1.4 (125)	27% (8)	37% (11)	.49 (13)	6% (85)	1.9 (110)
MICH Defense	13	57% (134)	39% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.21 (56)	1.6 (71)	36% (12)	28% (28)	.27 (54)	8% (10)	2.2 (109)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	46% (30)	51% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (132)	.51 (132)	1.6 (81)	26% (132)	38% (129)	.54 (129)	6% (79)	2.2 (118)
MICH Offense	13	39% (126)	40% (92)	13.8	22.5	123.3	5.5	9	11 (122)	12 (85)	.12 (119)	1.4 (131)	33% (90)	30% (92)	.26 (96)	5% (51)	1.7 (133)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -14.46 #118
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 5.15 #118
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.61 #106
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9 #73
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #82
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -14.46 Michigan: 16.29

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: 0.9 Michigan: 12.4

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 16.29 #21
Michigan's Offense Rating: 16.26 #52
Michigan's Defense Rating: 1.08 #13
2025 Talent Rating: 1042.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 50 #16
Michigan's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Michigan's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4 #25
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #48
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.0 #15

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan 37
New Mexico 14

Projected Total Points: 50

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.2
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.3

Michigan's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Michigan	34	New Mexico	17	Michigan -36.5	New Mexico	52.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan	1	0	0 Overs
New Mexico	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#118) UNM at (#21) MICH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	MICH
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#118	#21
SP+SP+	#73	#25
Perf GradeGrade	#54	#32
OffenseOff	#90	#47
DefenseDef	#24	#31
Spec TeamsST	#61	#3
TalentTal	#127	#8
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#16

New Mexico Notes(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report

Michigan Notes(12/10) Sherrone Moore fired for cause. Messy situation
(11/18) RB Justice Haynes out regular season (foot inj)
(11/16) Keep eking by B1G bottom feeders. Overrated
(10/18) Dominated UW up front both sides, Def was great
(10/12) Off is terrible, will not score vs Def w/ a pulse
(9/21) Skill positions on outside both Off & Def are bad
(9/20) Huge win at Neb, Run Off great, Run Def better
(9/14) Underwood unleashed, Run Off awful so far
(9/8) Biff Poggi will be acting HC vs CMU/Neb
(9/8) HC Moore a minus for lack of aggressiveness
(9/7) OL is not as good as thought. WR are awful
(8/24) QB1 Fr. Bryce Underwood is starting QB
Michigan Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	MICH Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#90	#31
SuccessSuc	#10	#28
ExplosiveExp	#86	#73
PPAPPA	#14	#40
PowerPwr	#118	#13
SP+SP+	#82	#15
Pts POPPO	#79	#36
HavocHav	#12	#23

New Mexico Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	MICH Def
Run GameRun	#91	#19
Run SuccessRSuc	#3	#18
Run ExplRExp	#21	#11
PPAExp	#1	#24
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#24
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#61
TackleTak	-	#32

New Mexico Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	MICH Def
Pass GamePass	#40	#66
Pass SuccessPSuc	#40	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#125	#71
PPAExp	#77	#56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#107	#30
F7 HavocF7	#1	#50
DB HavocDB	#85	#10

Michigan on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	UNM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#47	#24
SuccessSuc	#102	#132
ExplosiveExp	#133	#68
PPAPPA	#113	#132
PowerPwr	#52	#106
SP+SP+	#48	#66
Pts POPPO	#45	#128
HavocHav	#58	#114

Michigan Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#16	#19
Run SuccessRSuc	#101	#125
Run ExplRExp	#91	#64
PPAExp	#86	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#80	#103
Stuff RateStuff	#27	#94
TackleTak	-	#51

Michigan Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	MICH Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#73
Pass SuccessPSuc	#92	#131
Pass ExplPExl	#131	#81
PPAExp	#119	#132
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#74	#7
F7 HavocF7	#73	#118
DB HavocDB	#51	#79

Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Michigan -36.5 (52.5)
Michigan won vs New Mexico this year (34-17)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat New Mexico last year (34-17)

UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Layne (Tr)	213	327	65%	2486	13	10	7.6
James Laubstein	11	17	65%	96	2	0	5.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)	114	635	5	5.6	54
DJ McKinney (Tr)	111	464	7	4.2	54
James Laubstein	59	363	1	6.2	58
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)	77	349	5	4.5	61

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)	59	754	3	12.8	80
Dorian Thomas (Tr)	56	560	4	10.0	34
Damon Bankston (Tr)	31	397	3	12.8	84
Cade Keith (Tr)	20	253	3	12.7	45

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)	128	7	2	3	2
Tavian Combs	72	1	1	0	3
Jon Johnson	54	0	0	0	6
Mercury Swaim	52	7	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	52	15	9	5	5
Brett Karhu	29	11	8	5	2
Gabriel Lopez	14	6	2	1	1
Mercury Swaim	52	7	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Drew Speech	10	0	0	0	8
Jon Johnson	54	0	0	0	6
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	52	15	9	5	5

MICH's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Underwood	202	335	60%	2428	11	9	7.2
Jadyn Davis	0	2	0%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Marshall	150	932	10	6.2	65
Justice Haynes (Tr)	121	857	10	7.1	75
Bryce Underwood	88	392	6	4.5	37
Bryson Kuzdzal	76	326	4	4.3	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Andrew Marsh	45	651	4	14.5	69
Donaven McCulley (Tr)	39	588	3	15.1	44
Marlin Klein	24	248	1	10.3	27
Semaj Morgan	20	223	1	11.2	32

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Don Martindale (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jimmy Rolder	73	7	2	2	1
Ernest Hausmann	68	6	1	4	1
TJ Metcalf (Tr)	58	3	0	0	4
Brandyn Hillman	49	3	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derrick Moore	29	10	10	3	3
Jaishawn Barham	32	10	4	5	4
Jimmy Rolder	73	7	2	2	1
Cole Sullivan	44	5	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Zeke Berry	33	0	0	10
Jyaire Hill	36	3	1	5
TJ Metcalf (Tr)	58	3	0	4