Ball State at Miami - 2024 Matchup Preview
Ball State logo Ball State Cardinals at Miami Hurricanes(#5)Miami logo
Saturday, September 14th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Miami -36.5 (55.5) (-7500)  Open: -36.5 | 54.5
Miami 62 - Ball State: 0

 
Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Neu (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (23 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Heavy Rain Predicted
MIAMI 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Miami -44.5  (SP+ MIAMI -41)

Projected Score: BALL: 7 - MIAMI: 51 (58)
MIAMI Win prob: 94% | Cover: 38%
BALL Travel: 1029 miles
Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (48 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7 Ball State vs Missouri State-2.550.5W 42 - 34OY
Sat 9/14 Ball State at Miami+36.555.5L 0 - 62ON
Sat 9/21 Ball State at Central Michigan+6.551.0L 34 - 37OY
Sat 9/28 Ball State at James Madison+22.056.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 10/5 Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.057.5L 42 - 45OY
Sat 10/12 Ball State at Kent State-3.058.0W 37 - 35ON
Sat 10/19 Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.557.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.547.5W 25 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5 Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.548.5L 21 - 27UY
Tue 11/12 Ball State at Buffalo+3.555.5L 48 - 51OY
Sat 11/23 Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.554.5L 13 - 38UN
Fri 11/29 Ball State at Ohio+17.551.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Miami's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Miami at Florida-2.554.5W 41 - 17OY
Sat 9/7 Miami vs Florida A&M-46.555.5W 56 - 9OY
Sat 9/14 Miami vs Ball State-36.555.5W 62 - 0OY
Sat 9/21 Miami at South Florida-17.064.5W 50 - 15OY
Fri 9/27 Miami vs Virginia Tech-17.555.5W 38 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Miami at California-10.054.0W 39 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Miami at Louisville-4.561.5W 52 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 Miami vs Florida State-22.555.0W 36 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Miami vs Duke-21.055.5W 53 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Miami at Georgia Tech-9.564.5L 23 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Miami vs Wake Forest-23.567.0W 42 - 14UY
Sat 11/30 Miami at Syracuse-12.565.5L 38 - 42ON
Sat 12/28 Miami vs Iowa State-5.062.0L 41 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#98 (.14)42% (78)25.344% (70)3.06 (61)10341% (72)2453.94 (65)#128 (.32)46% (118)40.146% (103)47% (121)4.81 (133)45.31.21.3
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)43.956% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)25.338% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#98 (.14)42% (78)44% (70)3.06 (61)10341% (72)2453.94 (65)#128 (.32)46% (118)46% (103)47% (121)4.81 (133)45.31.21.3
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense1225.32342.1%3.941.2203481032453.442%58%44%41%19%.14
MIAMI Defense1325.31738.1%4.021.4 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense1240.144.946.5%4.811.3 - - - - - 47%52%46%47%13%.32
MIAMI Offense1343.947.852.5%4.961254971653325.543%57%56%50%10%.4

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State1230:5820.342%46%4.945.31.21.34.61.7230.3
Miami1330:1325.256%65%6.263.111.45.92.6129.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense1242% (120)44% (70)30.8103.43.410 (122).1 (91)3.06 (61)80% (23)11% (99)0.87 (117)
MIAMI Defense1345% (11)38% (16) - - - - .08 (49)2.6 (16)57% (4)11% (43)1.15 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense1247% (34)46% (103) - - - - .22 (116)3.17 (90)74% (72)9% (103)1.08 (110)
MIAMI Offense1343% (114)56% (1)30.1165.55.528 (25).32 (5)3.59 (4)90% (1)6% (3)0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense1258% (16)41% (72)23.336.6244.76.710.526 (26)11 (72).19 (98)1.6 (73)33% (93)28% (101).29 (88)8% (123)2.2 (15)
MIAMI Defense1355% (125)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (23).23 (66)1.7 (113)36% (9)36% (123).45 (115)7% (34)2.1 (84)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense1252% (100)47% (121) - - - - - - 8 (93).44 (128)1.8 (119)33% (55)40% (133).57 (131)5% (115)2.2 (115)
MIAMI Offense1357% (20)50% (7)23.935.1331.69.513.938 (1)7 (26).47 (6)1.7 (26)27% (5)42% (1).69 (1)4% (15)2.3 (6)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.09  #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16  #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27  #132
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8  #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3  #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8  #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.09   Miami: 22.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.8   Miami: 21.6




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 22.865  #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60  #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71  #52
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 43  #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6  #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 44.9

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 51
Ball State 7


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami 34
Ball State 20

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Miami 44
Ball State 23

Total Points: 67
Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 47.8
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Miami62Ball State0Miami -36.5Miami55.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami111 Overs
Ball State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#126) BALL at (#8) MIAMI
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBALLMIAMI
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #126 #8
SP+SP+ #126 #10
Perf GradeGrade #127 #3
OffenseOff #93 #3
DefenseDef #136 #14
Spec TeamsST #111 #97
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #102 #13
Ball State Notes
(12/18) Hired HC Mike Uremovich (Butler)
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
(8/16) Edge Justin Thomas out for season (leg)
Ball State Injury Report
Ball State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffMIAMI Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #93 #14
SuccessSuc #78 #26
ExplosiveExp #81 #130
PPAPPA #98 #69
PowerPwr #93 #52
SP+SP+ #103 #51
Pts POPPO #65 #91
HavocHav #119 #39
Ball State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #131 #9
Run SuccessRSuc #70 #16
Run ExplRExp #117 #125
PPAExp #91 #49
Run BlockR Blk #88 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #16
Stuff RateStuff #8 #7
TackleTak -  #99
Ball State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #89 #59
Pass SuccessPSuc #72 #40
Pass ExplPExl #73 #113
PPAExp #98 #66
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #38 #14
F7 HavocF7 #99 #43
DB HavocDB #123 #34
Miami on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffBALL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #3 #136
SuccessSuc #1 #118
ExplosiveExp #22 #126
PPAPPA #2 #128
PowerPwr #1 #132
SP+SP+ #1 #133
Pts POPPO #2 #133
HavocHav #4 #116
Miami Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffBALL Def
Run GameRun #2 #133
Run SuccessRSuc #1 #103
Run ExplRExp #73 #110
PPAExp #5 #116
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #4 #90
Stuff RateStuff #2 #77
TackleTak -  #121
Miami Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffBALL Def
Pass GamePass #2 #133
Pass SuccessPSuc #7 #121
Pass ExplPExl #26 #119
PPAExp #6 #128
Pass Block/RushP Blk #27 #61
F7 HavocF7 #3 #103
DB HavocDB #15 #115
Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain
Temp: 88° - Wind: 11 mph
Rain: 0.295
Rematch from Week 3
Miami -36.5 (55.5)
Miami won vs Ball State this year (62-0)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Ball State last year (62-0)

  
BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kadin Semonza27542764%290025106.8
Aidan Leffler2633%6001.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)15059744.040
Vaughn Pemberton6127624.541
Cam Pickett17170210.034
TJ Horton2310704.717
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tanner Koziol9483988.933
Cam Pickett49528210.865
Justin Bowick (Tr)20383319.257
Braedon Sloan (Tr)29329111.372

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
George Udo (Tr)782111
Keionte Newson734044
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Joey Stemler566260
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Brandon Berger3810594
Sam Feeney73300
Darin Conley163220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Norwood (Tr)382005
Keionte Newson734044
Brandon Berger3810594

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cameron Ward30545467%43133979.5
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)1591002106.375
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Cameron Ward6020443.424
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Restrepo6911271116.377
Jacolby George53752814.249
Isaiah Horton56616511.030
Elijah Arroyo35590716.974

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Lance Guidry (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Francisco Mauigoa9611255
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Jaden Harris404202
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor329620
Tyler Baron (Tr)3811660
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)308631
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daryl Porter Jr.280027
OJ Frederique Jr.231006
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116