Ball State at Miami - 2024 Matchup Preview
Ball State logo Ball State Cardinals at Miami HurricanesMiami logo
Saturday, September 14th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Miami -36.5 (55.5) (-7500)  Open: -36.5 | 54.5
Miami 62 - Ball State: 0

 
Cardinals (3 - 9) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Collin Johnson (Int) (37 - 56)
Avg Score : 25 - 40 (23 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Heavy Rain Predicted
MIAMI 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Miami -44.5   (SP+ MIAMI -41)

Projected Score: BALL: 8 - MIAMI: 53 (67)
MIAMI Win prob: 94% | Cover: 38%
BALL Travel: 1029 miles
Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (48 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Ball State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7 Ball State vs Missouri State-2.550.5W 42 - 34OY
Sat 9/14 Ball State at Miami+36.555.5L 0 - 62ON
Sat 9/21 Ball State at Central Michigan+6.551.0L 34 - 37OY
Sat 9/28 Ball State at James Madison+22.056.5L 7 - 63ON
Sat 10/5 Ball State vs Western Michigan+10.057.5L 42 - 45OY
Sat 10/12 Ball State at Kent State-3.058.0W 37 - 35ON
Sat 10/19 Ball State at Vanderbilt+27.557.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 10/26 Ball State vs Northern Illinois+13.547.5W 25 - 23OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5 Ball State vs Miami (OH)+12.548.5L 21 - 27UY
Tue 11/12 Ball State at Buffalo+3.555.5L 48 - 51OY
Sat 11/23 Ball State vs Bowling Green+12.554.5L 13 - 38UN
Fri 11/29 Ball State at Ohio+17.551.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Miami's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Miami at Florida-2.554.5W 41 - 17OY
Sat 9/7 Miami vs Florida A&M-46.555.5W 56 - 9OY
Sat 9/14 Miami vs Ball State-36.555.5W 62 - 0OY
Sat 9/21 Miami at South Florida-17.064.5W 50 - 15OY
Fri 9/27 Miami vs Virginia Tech-17.555.5W 38 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Miami at California-10.054.0W 39 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Miami at Louisville-4.561.5W 52 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 Miami vs Florida State-22.555.0W 36 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Miami vs Duke-21.055.5W 53 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Miami at Georgia Tech-9.564.5L 23 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Miami vs Wake Forest-23.567.0W 42 - 14UY
Sat 11/30 Miami at Syracuse-12.565.5L 38 - 42ON
Sat 12/28 Miami vs Iowa State-5.062.0L 41 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#97 (.14)40% (95)25.345% (50)3.35 (22)17133% (127)1373.31 (105)#70 (.18)42% (66)40.143% (65)42% (70)3.81 (70)45.21.30.9
MIAMI#37 (.27)43% (52)43.943% (64)3.35 (24)17344% (43)2583.99 (56)#37 (.14)39% (31)25.338% (27)39% (38)4.53 (125)57.81.71.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense1225.32339.8%3.311.3183081711374.458%41%45%33%17%.14
MIAMI Defense1325.31738.5%4.531.4 - - - - - 47%52%38%39%17%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense1240.144.941.8%3.810.9 - - - - - 48%51%43%42%17%.18
MIAMI Offense1343.947.843.3%3.991.7224311732585.147%52%43%44%14%.27

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State1232:4418.138%56%5.245.21.30.95.72.1028.8
Miami1331:5221.941%52%6.157.81.71.462.6229.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense1258% (14)45% (50)39.3171.44.415 (100).21 (38)3.35 (22)83% (8)12% (112)0.99 (70)
MIAMI Defense1347% (36)38% (27) - - - - .07 (28)2.65 (12)70% (45)12% (27)1 (71)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense1248% (44)43% (65) - - - - .11 (45)3.08 (62)79% (102)11% (35)0.89 (23)
MIAMI Offense1347% (96)43% (64)33.8173.25.124 (41).2 (44)3.35 (24)82% (10)8% (21)1.03 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense1241% (119)33% (127)15.125.3136.75.49.19 (126)8 (30).05 (128)1.4 (130)33% (92)24% (123).18 (110)5% (25)2 (104)
MIAMI Defense1352% (102)39% (38) - - - - - - 12 (37).22 (41)1.6 (60)33% (47)28% (33).3 (62)5% (104)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense1251% (93)42% (70) - - - - - - 5 (126).27 (70)1.5 (29)32% (61)28% (30).21 (20)5% (97)2 (39)
MIAMI Offense1352% (42)44% (43)21.833.62587.711.923 (51)14 (107).39 (28)1.6 (55)30% (36)32% (63).36 (60)6% (91)2 (87)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Ball State's Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Ball State's Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
2024 Talent Rating: 514.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Ball State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Ball State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.09   Miami: 22.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.8   Miami: 21.6




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 22.865 #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
2024 Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43 #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 40.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 44.9

Ball State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 53
Ball State 8


Projected Total Points: 67
Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 47.8
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Miami62Ball State0MiamiMiami -36.5Miami55.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami111 Overs
Ball State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#126) Ball State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -23.09 #126
Offense Rating: 17.16 #93
Defense Rating: 22.27 #132
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.8 #126
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #133
Talent Rating: 514.00 #92
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.94 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.81 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 47%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


Ball State Notes
(11/29) Fr QB Semonza good vs Ohio, 333 yds, 3/0 TD/Int
(11/16) HC Neu fired, OL Colin Johnson interim
(11/8) Good fight w/ M-O, Rgame abysmal, QB great
(10/22) Def stop rate 37% (#132) into week 9
(10/20) Good fight w/ Vandy, QB 21-29 for 190 yds?
(10/13) Shootout W over Kent St. Pass Def torched
(10/4) Sched brutal, Def CFB #133. Over every game.
(9/12) Over bet team. Off much improved, Def horrific
(9/8) Def gave up 34 to Mizzu St? Off looked good in open
(9/8) Run game strength LY only 2/5 OL and new RBs
Ball State     Ratings Matchup     Miami
Power #126
#8
Off #93
#1
Def #132
#52
Talent #92
#12
SP+ #126
#10
SP+ Off #103
#1
SP+ Def #133
#51

Rematch from Week 3
Miami -36.5 (55.5)
Miami won vs Ball State this year (62-0)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Ball State last year (62-0)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain
Temp: 88° - Wind: 11 mph
Rain: 0.295


Team Information
Injuries: BALL | MIAMI
Depth Chart: BALL | MIAMI
Rosters: BALL | MIAMI
(#8) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 22.865 #8
Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51
Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43 #13
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.96 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position



  
Ball State's OC Jared Elliott
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kadin Semonza27542764%290025106.8
Aidan Leffler2633%6001.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Braedon Sloan (Tr)15059744.040
Vaughn Pemberton6127624.541
Cam Pickett17170210.034
TJ Horton2310704.717
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tanner Koziol9483988.933
Cam Pickett49528210.865
Justin Bowick (Tr)20383319.257
Braedon Sloan (Tr)29329111.372

View Ball State's Full Roster
Ball State's DC Jeff Knowles
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
George Udo (Tr)782111
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Joey Stemler566260
D.D. Snyder552001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Riley Tolsma (Tr)599681
Sam Feeney73300
Darin Conley163220
Joey Stemler566260
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Norwood (Tr)382005
Thailand Baldwin233003
Scott Hudson31102

Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cameron Ward30545467%43133979.5
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)1591002106.375
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Cameron Ward6020443.424
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Horton56616511.030
Sam Brown (Tr)36509214.176
Damien Martinez (Tr)17204012.036
Elija Lofton9150116.740

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Lance Guidry
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Jaden Harris404202
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116
Tyler Baron (Tr)3811660
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Baron (Tr)3811660
Akheem Mesidor329620
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)308631
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116
OJ Frederique Jr.231006
Ja'Dais Richard272023