Miami at South Florida - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#4)Miami Hurricanes at South Florida Bulls

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Miami -17 (64.5) (-900) Open: 0.0
Miami 50 - South Florida: 15

Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (41 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USF is playing their 4th straight game
MIAMI is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Miami -19 (SP+ MIAMI -24)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 42 - USF: 23 (64)
MIAMI Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
MIAMI Travel: 197 miles

Bulls (7 - 6) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 32 - 30 (34 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MIAMI Players
USF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Miami at Florida	-2.5	54.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Miami vs Florida A&M	-46.5	55.5	W 56 - 9	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Miami vs Ball State	-36.5	55.5	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Miami at South Florida	-17.0	64.5	W 50 - 15	O	Y
Fri 9/27	Miami vs Virginia Tech	-17.5	55.5	W 38 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Miami at California	-10.0	54.0	W 39 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Miami at Louisville	-4.5	61.5	W 52 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Miami vs Florida State	-22.5	55.0	W 36 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/2	Miami vs Duke	-21.0	55.5	W 53 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Miami at Georgia Tech	-9.5	64.5	L 23 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Miami vs Wake Forest	-23.5	67.0	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Miami at Syracuse	-12.5	65.5	L 38 - 42	O	N
Sat 12/28	Miami vs Iowa State	-5.0	62.0	L 41 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

South Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman	-22.5
Sat 9/7	South Florida at Alabama	+33.5	65.5	L 16 - 42	U	Y
Sat 9/14	South Florida at Southern Miss	-13.0	58.5	W 49 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/21	South Florida vs Miami	+17.0	64.5	L 15 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/28	South Florida at Tulane	+4.0	60.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	South Florida vs Memphis	+10.0	61.0	L 3 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/19	South Florida vs UAB	-14.0	55.5	W 35 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1	South Florida at Florida Atlantic	-1.5	48.0	W 44 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	South Florida vs Navy	+4.5	59.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/16	South Florida at Charlotte	+1.5	53.5	W 59 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/23	South Florida vs Tulsa	-17.5	60.0	W 63 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	South Florida at Rice	-5.5	53.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Tue 12/24	South Florida vs San José State	-1.5	66.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)	43.9	56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)	25.3	38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)	32.2	39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)	29.8	38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)		56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)		38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)		39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)		38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Offense	13	43.9	40.5	52.5%	4.96	1	25	497	165	332	5.5	43%	57%	56%	50%	10%	.4
USF Defense	13	29.8	27.2	39.2%	4	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	38%	40%	20%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Defense	13	25.3	30.8	38.1%	4.02	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	38%	38%	18%	.16
USF Offense	13	32.2	33.6	38.3%	3.88	1.4	20	408	181	227	4.8	48%	52%	39%	38%	15%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami	13	30:13	25.2	56%	65%	6.2	63.1	1	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29.7
South Florida	13	25:10	20.4	39%	56%	8.1	70.9	1.4	2.1	8.1	2.5	2	30.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense	13	43% (114)	56% (1)	30.1	165.5	5.5	28 (25)	.32 (5)	3.59 (4)	90% (1)	6% (3)	0.95 (73)
USF Defense	13	49% (46)	38% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (26)	2.63 (18)	70% (48)	13% (11)	1.13 (121)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense	13	45% (11)	38% (16)	-	-	-	-	.08 (49)	2.6 (16)	57% (4)	11% (43)	1.15 (125)
USF Offense	13	48% (82)	39% (112)	37.8	180.8	4.8	34 (10)	.2 (32)	3.06 (60)	66% (114)	10% (62)	1.26 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense	13	57% (20)	50% (7)	23.9	35.1	331.6	9.5	13.9	38 (1)	7 (26)	.47 (6)	1.7 (26)	27% (5)	42% (1)	.69 (1)	4% (15)	2.3 (6)
USF Defense	13	51% (91)	40% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (89)	1.6 (78)	34% (32)	32% (87)	.3 (64)	7% (46)	1.9 (32)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense	13	55% (125)	38% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.23 (66)	1.7 (113)	36% (9)	36% (123)	.45 (115)	7% (34)	2.1 (84)
USF Offense	13	52% (51)	38% (106)	20.2	34.1	227.5	6.7	11.3	16 (87)	10 (63)	.13 (113)	1.5 (109)	34% (114)	25% (121)	.22 (105)	6% (68)	2.2 (21)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 19.13 #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 19.13 South Florida: 1.455

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 21.6 South Florida: -2.3

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 1.455 #62
South Florida's Offense Rating: 19.25 #72
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.53 #48
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
South Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.3 #79
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Miami 42
South Florida 23

Total Points: 64

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami 30
South Florida 30

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Miami 35
South Florida 31

Total Points: 66

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

South Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Miami	49	South Florida	12	Miami -17.5	Miami	56.5	Over
2024	09/21	South Florida	15	Miami	50	Miami -17	Miami	64.5	Over
2013	09/28	South Florida	21	Miami	49	Miami -18.5	Miami	0
2012	11/17	Miami	40	South Florida	9
2011	11/19	South Florida	3	Miami	6
2010	11/27	Miami	20	South Florida	23
2009	11/28	South Florida	10	Miami	31
2005	10/01	Miami	27	South Florida	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Florida	1	0	2 Overs
Miami	7	3	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 5	1 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 3	2 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 1

(#8) MIAMI at (#62) USF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIAMI	USF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#8	#62
SP+SP+	#10	#79
Perf GradeGrade	#3	#100
OffenseOff	#3	#120
DefenseDef	#14	#61
Spec TeamsST	#97	#92
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#13	#65

Miami Injury Report

South Florida Notes(11/18) Rgame mailed Char. 425 yds, 8.9 ypc. Def avg
(11/9) Golesh is a f'ing idiot. In game decisions -6
(11/4) Rgame mauled FAU. QB Archie good, D avg, flags
(11/4) Golesh big timed FAU Herman, crootin beef
(10/20) Outplayed by UAB, lucky W. New QB Archie statue
(10/14) QB Brown may have broken leg, out since Tulane
(10/13) Rgame is abysmal, QB not much better in L (Mem)
(10/11) Hiding injuries but team may be very beat up
(9/28) Dogwalked by Tulane. Rgame 26 yds, 1.0 ypc!
(9/22) Good 1st H fight vs Mia. Just wore down again
(9/14) 369 yds rushing, 7.2 ypc in smashing S Miss
(9/8) Hung in w/ Bama. 200 yds rushing. QB Brown ??
South Florida Injury Report

Miami on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	USF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#3	#61
SuccessSuc	#1	#36
ExplosiveExp	#22	#115
PPAPPA	#2	#66
PowerPwr	#1	#48
SP+SP+	#1	#108
Pts POPPO	#2	#88
HavocHav	#4	#15

Miami Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#2	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#17
Run ExplRExp	#73	#121
PPAExp	#5	#26
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#10
TackleTak	-	#84

Miami Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#7	#69
Pass ExplPExl	#26	#78
PPAExp	#6	#89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#27	#32
F7 HavocF7	#3	#11
DB HavocDB	#15	#46

South Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	MIAMI Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#120	#14
SuccessSuc	#118	#26
ExplosiveExp	#10	#130
PPAPPA	#83	#69
PowerPwr	#72	#52
SP+SP+	#51	#51
Pts POPPO	#74	#91
HavocHav	#57	#39

South Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	MIAMI Def
Run GameRun	#67	#9
Run SuccessRSuc	#112	#16
Run ExplRExp	#3	#125
PPAExp	#32	#49
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#7
TackleTak	-	#99

South Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USF Off	MIAMI Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#59
Pass SuccessPSuc	#106	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#113
PPAExp	#113	#66
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#97	#14
F7 HavocF7	#62	#43
DB HavocDB	#68	#34

Program Comparison
USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Top G5

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 86° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Miami 17.0 (64.5)
Miami won at South Florida this year (50-15)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat South Florida last year (50-15)

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cameron Ward	305	454	67%	4313	39	7	9.5
Emory Williams	16	26	62%	187	1	1	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)	159	1002	10	6.3	75
Mark Fletcher Jr.	112	607	9	5.4	30
Jordan Lyle	54	400	4	7.4	91
Cameron Ward	60	204	4	3.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Restrepo	69	1127	11	16.3	77
Jacolby George	53	752	8	14.2	49
Isaiah Horton	56	616	5	11.0	30
Elijah Arroyo	35	590	7	16.9	74

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Lance Guidry (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Francisco Mauigoa	96	11	2	5	5
Wesley Bissainthe	59	5	2	1	1
Jaden Harris	40	4	2	0	2
Mishael Powell (Tr)	38	2	1	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Akheem Mesidor	32	9	6	2	0
Tyler Baron (Tr)	38	11	6	6	0
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)	30	8	6	3	1
Rueben Bain Jr.	23	6	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daryl Porter Jr.	28	0	0	2	7
OJ Frederique Jr.	23	1	0	0	6
Mishael Powell (Tr)	38	2	1	1	6

USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Archie	172	290	59%	1914	9	10	6.6
Byrum Brown	78	132	59%	836	2	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kelley Joiner Jr.	121	799	12	6.6	54
Nay'Quan Wright	109	510	8	4.7	64
Taron Keith	78	419	8	5.4	42
Byrum Brown	68	269	3	4.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	80	799	2	10.0	52
Keshaun Singleton	27	428	3	15.9	67
Mike Brown-Stephens	28	350	4	12.5	32
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (Tr)	21	254	0	12.1	51

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Tavin Ward	61	2	0	0	3
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Jamie Pettway	56	7	2	2	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Decarius Hawthorne (Tr)	39	10	3	3	2
Ricardo Watson	36	8	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Brent Austin (Tr)	48	0	0	10
De'Shawn Rucker (Tr)	41	2	0	7
Ben Knox	22	1	1	6