Florida State at Miami - 2024 Matchup Preview
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Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes

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Saturday, October 26th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Miami -22.5 (55.0) (-1800)  Open: -1.0
Miami 36 - Florida State: 14  (ACC)

 
Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FSU 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Miami -27  (SP+ MIAMI -25)
Projected Score: FSU: 13 - MIAMI: 40 (53)
MIAMI Win prob: 95% | Cover: 53%
FSU Travel: 396 miles
Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (36 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Florida State vs Georgia Tech-10.054.5L 21 - 24UN
Mon 9/2 Florida State vs Boston College-16.550.0L 13 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Florida State vs Memphis-7.052.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 9/21 Florida State vs California-3.044.0W 14 - 9UY
Sat 9/28 Florida State at SMU+6.046.0L 16 - 42ON
Sat 10/5 Florida State vs Clemson+16.547.0L 13 - 29UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Florida State at Duke+2.543.0L 16 - 23UN
Sat 10/26 Florida State at Miami+22.555.0L 14 - 36UY
Sat 11/2 Florida State vs North Carolina+2.550.5L 11 - 35UN
Sat 11/9 Florida State at Notre Dame+25.544.5L 3 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Florida State vs Charleston Southern-33.044.5W 41 - 7OY
Sat 11/30 Florida State vs Florida+17.545.5L 11 - 31UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Miami's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Miami at Florida-2.554.5W 41 - 17OY
Sat 9/7 Miami vs Florida A&M-46.555.5W 56 - 9OY
Sat 9/14 Miami vs Ball State-36.555.5W 62 - 0OY
Sat 9/21 Miami at South Florida-17.064.5W 50 - 15OY
Fri 9/27 Miami vs Virginia Tech-17.555.5W 38 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Miami at California-10.054.0W 39 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Miami at Louisville-4.561.5W 52 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 Miami vs Florida State-22.555.0W 36 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Miami vs Duke-21.055.5W 53 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Miami at Georgia Tech-9.564.5L 23 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Miami vs Wake Forest-23.567.0W 42 - 14UY
Sat 11/30 Miami at Syracuse-12.565.5L 38 - 42ON
Sat 12/28 Miami vs Iowa State-5.062.0L 41 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#60 (.21)41% (79)3339% (113)2.64 (128)15043% (54)2514.45 (25)#13 (.09)36% (9)2240% (38)32% (1)3.5 (47)56.60.61.2
MIAMI#37 (.27)43% (52)30.943% (64)3.35 (24)17344% (43)2583.99 (56)#37 (.14)39% (31)14.838% (27)39% (38)4.53 (125)57.81.71.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense143318.641.3%4.450.6204011502514.547%53%39%43%15%.21
MIAMI Defense1314.811.838.5%4.531.4 - - - - - 47%52%38%39%17%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense142230.235.5%3.51.2 - - - - - 49%51%40%32%21%.09
MIAMI Offense1330.936.143.3%3.991.7224311732585.147%52%43%44%14%.27

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1429:2319.636%48%6.156.60.61.26.73.2229.5
Miami1331:5221.941%52%6.157.81.71.462.6229.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1447% (93)39% (113)33.1150.14.532 (10).07 (111)2.64 (128)63% (123)9% (52)1.06 (35)
MIAMI Defense1347% (36)38% (27) - - - - .07 (28)2.65 (12)70% (45)12% (27)1 (71)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1449% (49)40% (38) - - - - .12 (51)2.75 (19)77% (96)12% (20)1.07 (102)
MIAMI Offense1347% (96)43% (64)33.8173.25.124 (41).2 (44)3.35 (24)82% (10)8% (21)1.03 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1453% (39)43% (54)18.630.9250.68.113.525 (37)4 (2).34 (46)1.6 (48)32% (78)31% (66).36 (61)6% (67)2.2 (32)
MIAMI Defense1352% (102)39% (38) - - - - - - 12 (37).22 (41)1.6 (60)33% (47)28% (33).3 (62)5% (104)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1451% (90)32% (1) - - - - - - 10 (67).06 (4)1.6 (65)36% (16)27% (28).22 (22)9% (2)1.9 (24)
MIAMI Offense1352% (42)44% (43)21.833.62587.711.923 (51)14 (107).39 (28)1.6 (55)30% (36)32% (63).36 (60)6% (91)2 (87)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -4.89  #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77  #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02  #87
2024 Talent Rating: 529.00  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43%  #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1  #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -4.89   Miami: 22.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -3.2   Miami: 21.6




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 22.865  #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60  #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71  #52
2024 Talent Rating: 527.00  #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 43  #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6  #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 40
Florida State 13

Projected Total Points: 53
Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Florida State22Miami28Miami -3.5Miami54.5Under
202410/26Miami36Florida State14Miami -22.5Florida State55.0Under
202311/11Florida State27Miami20Florida State -14.5Miami50.5Under
202211/05Miami3Florida State45Florida State -6.5Florida State54.0Under
202111/13Florida State31Miami28Miami -2.5Florida State61.5Under
202009/26Miami52Florida State10Miami -12.5Miami54.0Over
201911/02Florida State10Miami27Florida State -3Miami50.0Under
201810/06Miami28Florida State27Miami -14Florida State48.5Over
201710/07Florida State20Miami24Miami -3Miami45.5Under
201610/08Miami19Florida State20Miami -1.5Florida State61.5Under
201510/10Florida State29Miami24Florida State -9Miami54.0Under
201411/15Miami26Florida State30Florida State -2.5Florida State0
201311/02Florida State41Miami14Florida State -21Florida State0
201210/20Miami20Florida State33
201111/12Florida State23Miami19
201010/09Miami17Florida State45
200909/07Florida State34Miami38
200810/04Miami39Florida State41
200710/20Florida State29Miami37
200609/04Miami10Florida State13
200509/05Florida State10Miami7
200409/10Miami16Florida State10
200301/01Florida State14Miami16
200310/11Florida State14Miami22
200210/12Miami28Florida State27
200110/13Florida State27Miami49
200010/06Miami27Florida State24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami1462 Overs
Florida State1379 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 153 - 102 - 61 - 4
Road Teams15 - 1210 - 34 - 16 - 2

(#83) FSU at (#8) MIAMI
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUMIAMI
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #83 #8
SP+SP+ #83 #10
Perf GradeGrade #120 #3
OffenseOff #124 #3
DefenseDef #111 #14
Spec TeamsST #19 #97
TalentTal #12 #14
Blue ChipsBC% #13 #13
Florida State Notes
(12/12) Signed QB Castellanos (BC), back w/ Gus (UCF)
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad
(9/30) DJ's hand inj may be long term
Florida State Injury Report
Florida State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
FSU OffMIAMI Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #124 #14
SuccessSuc #79 #31
ExplosiveExp #16 #76
PPAPPA #60 #37
PowerPwr #120 #52
SP+SP+ #114 #51
Pts POPPO #25 #125
HavocHav #57 #56
Florida State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
FSU OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #124 #9
Run SuccessRSuc #113 #27
Run ExplRExp #35 #71
PPAExp #111 #28
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #128 #12
Stuff RateStuff #111 #9
TackleTak -  #99
Florida State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
FSU OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #111 #59
Pass SuccessPSuc #54 #38
Pass ExplPExl #48 #60
PPAExp #46 #41
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #76 #14
F7 HavocF7 #52 #27
DB HavocDB #67 #104
Miami on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffFSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #3 #111
SuccessSuc #52 #9
ExplosiveExp #37 #79
PPAPPA #37 #13
PowerPwr #1 #87
SP+SP+ #1 #58
Pts POPPO #56 #47
HavocHav #38 #7
Miami Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffFSU Def
Run GameRun #2 #106
Run SuccessRSuc #64 #38
Run ExplRExp #51 #102
PPAExp #44 #51
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #24 #19
Stuff RateStuff #58 #19
TackleTak -  #47
Miami Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffFSU Def
Pass GamePass #2 #108
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #1
Pass ExplPExl #55 #65
PPAExp #28 #4
Pass Block/RushP Blk #27 #93
F7 HavocF7 #21 #20
DB HavocDB #91 #2
Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

FSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
Miami -22.5 (55.0)
Miami won vs Florida State this year (36-14)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Florida State last year (28-22)
Miami beat Florida State in 2024 (36-14)
Florida State beat Miami in 2023 (27-20)

  
FSU's OC Alex Atkins (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)8415654%1065466.8
Brock Glenn5111445%597455.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lawrance Toafili10945634.228
Kam Davis5217303.316
Luke Kromenhoek6311301.842
Brock Glenn359702.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Khi Douglas32519416.271
Malik Benson (Tr)25311112.467
Lawrance Toafili2521508.632
Hykeem Williams16187111.733

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shyheim Brown621002
Azareye'h Thomas512024
K.J. Kirkland451002
Blake Nichelson454100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Patrick Payton3210440
Joshua Farmer288460
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)256430
Darrell Jackson284441
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fentrell Cypress II241015
Azareye'h Thomas512024
Kevin Knowles II311114

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cameron Ward30545467%43133979.5
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)1591002106.375
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Cameron Ward6020443.424
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Restrepo6911271116.377
Jacolby George53752814.249
Isaiah Horton56616511.030
Elijah Arroyo35590716.974

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Lance Guidry (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Francisco Mauigoa9611255
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Jaden Harris404202
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor329620
Tyler Baron (Tr)3811660
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)308631
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daryl Porter Jr.280027
OJ Frederique Jr.231006
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116