Cincinnati at Iowa State - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#25)Cincinnati Bearcats at Iowa State Cyclones

Saturday, November 16th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
Iowa State -7 (52.5) (-265) Open: -7.5
Iowa State 34 - Cincinnati: 17 (Big 12)

Bearcats (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Scott Satterfield (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (24 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Iowa State -13 (SP+ ISU -10)
Projected Score: CIN: 20 - ISU: 33 (52)
ISU Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
CIN Travel: 518 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Cyclones (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (53 - 48)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (34 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CIN Players
ISU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Cincinnati vs Towson	-33.5	56.5	W 38 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/7	Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh	+2.5	62.5	L 27 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Cincinnati at Miami (OH)	-3.5	47.5	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Cincinnati vs Houston	-4.0	47.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Cincinnati at Texas Tech	+3.0	60.0	L 41 - 44	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Cincinnati at UCF	+2.0	58.0	W 19 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Cincinnati vs Arizona State	-5.5	51.0	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Cincinnati at Colorado	+6.0	57.0	L 23 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Cincinnati vs West Virginia	-5.5	54.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/16	Cincinnati at Iowa State	+7.0	52.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/23	Cincinnati at Kansas State	+7.5	54.5	L 15 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	Cincinnati vs TCU	+2.5	58.5	L 13 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule

Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Iowa State vs North Dakota	-30.5	51.5	W 21 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/7	Iowa State at Iowa	+3.0	35.0	W 20 - 19	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Iowa State vs Arkansas State	-20.5	52.0	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Iowa State at Houston	-16.0	43.0	W 20 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Iowa State vs Baylor	-13.0	45.0	W 43 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Iowa State at West Virginia	-3.0	54.0	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Iowa State vs UCF	-13.0	49.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Iowa State vs Texas Tech	-13.5	55.0	L 22 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/9	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	50.5	L 36 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/16	Iowa State vs Cincinnati	-7.0	52.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Iowa State at Utah	-6.5	42.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/30	Iowa State vs Kansas State	-2.5	51.5	W 29 - 21	U	Y
Sat 12/7	Iowa State vs Arizona State	-1.5	51.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/28	Iowa State vs Miami	+5.0	62.0	W 42 - 41	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)	25.2	44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)	24.6	46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2
ISU	#62 (.2)	40% (99)	31.1	40% (106)	2.83 (102)	150	41% (77)	236	4.23 (37)	#79 (.18)	43% (81)	22.9	46% (101)	38% (41)	3.44 (29)	25.9	1.1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)		44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)		46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2
ISU	#62 (.2)	40% (99)		40% (106)	2.83 (102)	150	41% (77)	236	4.23 (37)	#79 (.18)	43% (81)		46% (101)	38% (41)	3.44 (29)	25.9	1.1	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CIN Offense	12	25.2	23.7	44.7%	3.33	1.5	22	422	185	237	5.2	50%	50%	44%	45%	16%	.21
ISU Defense	14	22.9	18.1	42.6%	3.44	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	46%	38%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CIN Defense	12	24.6	30.3	42.2%	3.51	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	46%	39%	16%	.18
ISU Offense	14	31.1	34.1	40.4%	4.23	1.1	21	387	150	236	4.4	51%	49%	40%	41%	14%	.2

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Cincinnati	12	31:42	22.1	42%	55%	5.3	44.4	1.5	1.2	5.4	1.6	0	26.4
Iowa State	14	30:00	20.9	42%	81%	3.6	25.9	1.1	1.5	4.7	1.1	1	30

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CIN Offense	12	50% (72)	44% (67)	35.3	185	5.2	19 (73)	.15 (59)	3.03 (69)	71% (84)	11% (93)	1.07 (34)
ISU Defense	14	55% (114)	46% (101)	-	-	-	-	.22 (114)	3.05 (76)	76% (81)	9% (85)	1.08 (112)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CIN Defense	12	51% (75)	46% (94)	-	-	-	-	.14 (77)	3.19 (98)	73% (63)	11% (51)	0.95 (49)
ISU Offense	14	51% (68)	40% (106)	34.4	150.2	4.4	24 (45)	.12 (74)	2.83 (102)	70% (88)	8% (22)	1.1 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CIN Offense	12	50% (63)	45% (32)	21	32.9	236.5	7.2	11.3	18 (68)	7 (26)	.26 (63)	1.4 (121)	30% (41)	36% (20)	.5 (10)	5% (33)	2.1 (67)
ISU Defense	14	45% (21)	38% (41)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.17 (36)	1.6 (73)	32% (63)	32% (86)	.32 (78)	5% (86)	2 (48)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CIN Defense	12	49% (63)	39% (43)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.23 (71)	1.7 (108)	31% (93)	31% (79)	.34 (86)	5% (87)	2 (66)
ISU Offense	14	49% (67)	41% (77)	18.3	31.1	236.4	7.6	12.9	22 (46)	10 (63)	.29 (49)	1.7 (27)	30% (52)	35% (29)	.39 (41)	7% (94)	2 (70)

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: 1.93 #56
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 22.64 #44
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 11.67 #85
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Cincinnati's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Cincinnati's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.1 #72
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #79
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: 1.93 Iowa State: 13.685

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: -0.1 Iowa State: 10.3

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 13.685 #23
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 22.95 #42
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 6.20 #37
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Iowa State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Iowa State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #28
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #44
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.7
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.3

Cincinnati's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 33
Cincinnati 20

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa State 27
Cincinnati 26

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Iowa State 30
Cincinnati 22

Total Points: 52

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.1

Iowa State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Cincinnati	38	Iowa State	30	Cincinnati -1.5	Cincinnati	55.5	Over
2024	11/16	Iowa State	34	Cincinnati	17	Iowa State -7	Iowa State	52.5	Under
2023	10/14	Cincinnati	10	Iowa State	30	Cincinnati -4	Iowa State	42.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa State	2	2	1 Overs
Cincinnati	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 2

(#56) CIN at (#23) ISU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CIN	ISU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#56	#23
SP+SP+	#72	#28
Perf GradeGrade	#70	#81
OffenseOff	#56	#81
DefenseDef	#69	#77
Spec TeamsST	#90	#73
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#97

Cincinnati Notes(11/25) 4 str L's, down 27-3 at H, Def killed by K St
(11/18) 3 str L's, Sorsby awful pass, good run, Rgame good
(11/13) 2 awful L's, outplayed WVU, 3 TO's cost, fading
(10/27) Big L vs Buffs, Off bad, 3-10 on 3rd, 9 flags
(10/19) Sorsby, Rgame enough vs ASU. Def held 4 big W
(10/12) Sorsby meh, Rgame awful, Def Ok in W (UCF)
(9/26) QB Sorsby a revelation. Top 3 QB in B12
(9/15) Pass heavy team, awful Red Zone, Def Rzone good
(9/8) Gagged vs Pitt. Had 36+ mins Off but Def torched
(9/1) Def gave up 438 yds to Towson? Rgame good
(8/3) New DC Fuqua will run 3-3-5, DT loss huge
(7/30) All B12 DT Corleone out indefintely (7/3)
Cincinnati Injury Report

Iowa State Notes(11/30) Even w/ KSU, forced 2 TOs, Becht 13/35 for 137?
(11/23) OG'd Utah 405-224. Beat K St = B12 title game
(11/18) Bounce back vs Cincy, Off better, Pass D great
(11/13) Run Def mauled by KU, Rgame abysmal, all Becht
(11/2) Bad L vs T.T., Outgained TT, but TOs, 3rd down bad
(10/22) Def stop rate is 77%, #6 in CFB but bad Offs so far
(10/13) Even w/ WVU, clean game, 9-14 3rd down in W
(10/11) LB's are really beat up going into WVU game
(9/19) WR Noel in top 5 vs M2M coverage. Higgins good #2
(9/8) Great comeback vs Iowa, Becht good, Rgame awful
(9/4) Starting MLB Bacon out indefinitely, leg injury
(9/1) Line play awful vs N Dak, 86 yds rush vs 174 gave up
Iowa State Injury Report

Cincinnati on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	ISU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#56	#77
SuccessSuc	#43	#81
ExplosiveExp	#79	#83
PPAPPA	#59	#79
PowerPwr	#44	#37
SP+SP+	#79	#24
Pts POPPO	#118	#29
HavocHav	#69	#84

Cincinnati Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#34	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#67	#101
Run ExplRExp	#34	#112
PPAExp	#59	#114
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#69	#76
Stuff RateStuff	#105	#43
TackleTak	-	#114

Cincinnati Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	CIN Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#32	#41
Pass ExplPExl	#121	#73
PPAExp	#63	#36
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#129
F7 HavocF7	#93	#85
DB HavocDB	#33	#86

Iowa State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	CIN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#69
SuccessSuc	#99	#76
ExplosiveExp	#7	#75
PPAPPA	#62	#75
PowerPwr	#42	#85
SP+SP+	#44	#57
Pts POPPO	#37	#40
HavocHav	#40	#67

Iowa State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#51	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#106	#94
Run ExplRExp	#19	#49
PPAExp	#74	#77
Run BlockR Blk	#121	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#98
Stuff RateStuff	#115	#56
TackleTak	-	#69

Iowa State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#77	#43
Pass ExplPExl	#27	#108
PPAExp	#49	#71
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#104	#111
F7 HavocF7	#22	#51
DB HavocDB	#94	#87

Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

CIN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 49° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Iowa State -7.0 (52.5)
Iowa State won vs Cincinnati this year (34-17)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Cincinnati last year (34-17)
Iowa State beat Cincinnati in 2023 (30-10)

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	249	389	64%	2813	18	7	7.2
Brady Lichtenberg	3	5	60%	25	0	0	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Kiner	204	1153	4	5.7	46
Brendan Sorsby (Tr)	106	445	9	4.2	41
Evan Pryor (Tr)	56	418	6	7.5	65
Chance Williams (Tr)	15	67	0	4.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xzavier Henderson	58	735	4	12.7	42
Joe Royer (Tr)	51	532	3	10.4	38
Tony Johnson (Tr)	49	452	6	9.2	23
Jamoi Mayes	29	349	1	12.0	52

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Nate Fuqua (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Jake Golday (Tr)	57	7	1	0	2
Antwan Peek Jr.	54	1	0	0	1
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Bartlett (Tr)	70	12	8	2	3
Eric Phillips	19	5	3	6	0
Dontay Corleone	26	5	3	4	0
Jonathan Thompson	49	5	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jordan Young	35	1	5
Derrick Canteen (Tr)	44	3	5
Josh Minkins (Tr)	45	2	4

ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	272	457	60%	3505	25	9	7.7
Connor Moberly	5	10	50%	49	0	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carson Hansen	151	752	13	5.0	57
Abu Sama III	124	587	2	4.7	77
Jaylon Jackson (Tr)	93	388	2	4.2	51
Rocco Becht	98	318	8	3.2	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylin Noel	81	1194	8	14.7	75
Jayden Higgins	87	1183	9	13.6	39
Gabe Burkle	26	296	1	11.4	32
Benjamin Brahmer	10	179	1	17.9	39

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	84	3	0	0	4
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5
Kooper Ebel	69	6	1	1	0
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	32	5	4	7	1
Kenard Snyder (Tr)	8	2	2	0	0
Joey Petersen	46	6	2	9	0
Domonique Orange	24	5	1	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8
Myles Purchase	35	4	0	0	6
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5