Iowa State at Iowa - 2024 Matchup Preview
Iowa State logo (#16)Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa logo
Saturday, September 7th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Iowa -3 (35.0) (-142)  Open: -2.5
Iowa State 20 - Iowa: 19

 
Cyclones (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (53 - 48)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (25 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
IOWA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Iowa -4.5  (SP+ IOWA -6)

Projected Score: ISU: 19 - IOWA: 24 (43)
IOWA Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ISU Travel: 110 miles
Hawkeyes (8 - 5) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (196 - 119)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (33 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.551.5W 21 - 3UN
Sat 9/7 Iowa State at Iowa+3.035.0W 20 - 19OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.552.0W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/28 Iowa State at Houston-16.043.0W 20 - 0UY
Sat 10/5 Iowa State vs Baylor-13.045.0W 43 - 21OY
Sat 10/12 Iowa State at West Virginia-3.054.0W 28 - 16UY
Sat 10/19 Iowa State vs UCF-13.049.5W 38 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.555.0L 22 - 23UN
Sat 11/9 Iowa State vs Kansas-2.550.5L 36 - 45ON
Sat 11/16 Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.052.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 11/23 Iowa State at Utah-6.542.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 11/30 Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.551.5W 29 - 21UY
Sat 12/7 Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.551.5L 19 - 45ON
Sat 12/28 Iowa State vs Miami+5.062.0W 42 - 41OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Iowa's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Iowa vs Illinois State-31.5
Sat 9/7 Iowa vs Iowa State-3.035.0L 19 - 20ON
Sat 9/14 Iowa vs Troy-23.539.5W 38 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Iowa at Minnesota-3.034.5W 31 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Iowa at Ohio State+17.046.0L 7 - 35UN
Sat 10/12 Iowa vs Washington-2.541.5W 40 - 16OY
Sat 10/19 Iowa at Michigan State-7.039.5L 20 - 32ON
Sat 10/26 Iowa vs Northwestern-16.538.5W 40 - 14OY
Sat 11/2 Iowa vs Wisconsin-2.540.0W 42 - 10OY
Fri 11/8 Iowa at UCLA-6.544.5L 17 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Iowa at Maryland-4.040.5W 29 - 13OY
Fri 11/29 Iowa vs Nebraska-3.541.5W 13 - 10UN
Mon 12/30 Iowa vs Missouri+1.041.0L 24 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)31.140% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)22.946% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)27.744% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)17.846% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ISU#62 (.2)40% (99)40% (106)2.83 (102)15041% (77)2364.23 (37)#79 (.18)43% (81)46% (101)38% (41)3.44 (29)25.91.11.5
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)44% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)46% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Offense1431.124.840.4%4.231.1213871502364.451%49%40%41%14%.2
IOWA Defense1317.81342%3.371.8 - - - - - 46%54%46%39%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ISU Defense1422.915.842.6%3.441.5 - - - - - 55%45%46%38%15%.18
IOWA Offense1327.733.142.3%3.770.8153061851215.262%37%44%40%13%.14

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Iowa State1430:0020.942%81%3.625.91.11.54.71.1130
Iowa1327:0515.441%50%2.826.30.81.84.52.1233.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Offense1451% (68)40% (106)34.4150.24.424 (45).12 (74)2.83 (102)70% (88)8% (22)1.1 (19)
IOWA Defense1346% (17)46% (97) - - - - .07 (38)3.07 (84)84% (126)10% (68)0.68 (1)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ISU Defense1455% (114)46% (101) - - - - .22 (114)3.05 (76)76% (81)9% (85)1.08 (112)
IOWA Offense1362% (7)44% (63)35.51855.229 (18).13 (71)2.92 (89)62% (120)10% (76)1.02 (47)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Offense1449% (67)41% (77)18.331.1236.47.612.922 (46)10 (63).29 (49)1.7 (27)30% (52)35% (29).39 (41)7% (94)2 (70)
IOWA Defense1354% (118)39% (51) - - - - - - 16 (10).18 (39)1.5 (36)32% (76)28% (36).24 (39)7% (27)1.8 (7)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ISU Defense1445% (21)38% (41) - - - - - - 14 (23).17 (36)1.6 (73)32% (63)32% (86).32 (78)5% (86)2 (48)
IOWA Offense1337% (129)40% (94)11.518.6121.56.510.69 (128)7 (26).21 (93)1.5 (93)26% (4)28% (99).2 (108)3% (7)2 (72)

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 12.07  #23
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 22.95  #42
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 6.20  #37
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #97
Iowa State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Iowa State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3  #28
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8  #44
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2  #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 12.07   Iowa: 15.465

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 10.3   Iowa: 15.8




Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 15.465  #31
Iowa's Offense Rating: 17.67  #88
Iowa's Defense Rating: 2.77  #9
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #44
Iowa's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Iowa's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8  #16
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0  #69
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3  #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.8

Iowa State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa 24
Iowa State 19


Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa 30
Iowa State 22

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Iowa 25
Iowa State 22

Total Points: 47
Iowa Scoring
Offense: 27.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.1
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Iowa's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Iowa State16Iowa13Iowa State -3.0Push43.0Under
202409/07Iowa19Iowa State20Iowa -3Iowa State35.0Over
202309/09Iowa State13Iowa20Iowa -3.5Iowa35.5Under
202209/10Iowa7Iowa State10Iowa -3.5Iowa State39.0Under
202109/11Iowa State17Iowa27Iowa State -4Iowa45.0Under
201909/14Iowa State17Iowa18Iowa -1.5Iowa State42.5Under
201809/08Iowa13Iowa State3Iowa -3.5Iowa47.0Under
201709/09Iowa State41Iowa44Iowa -3.5Iowa State48.5Over
201609/10Iowa42Iowa State3Iowa -18Iowa49.0Under
201509/12Iowa State17Iowa31Iowa -4Iowa48.0Push
201409/13Iowa17Iowa State20Iowa -15.5Iowa State0
201309/14Iowa State21Iowa27Iowa -3Iowa0
201209/08Iowa6Iowa State9
201109/10Iowa State44Iowa41
201009/11Iowa35Iowa State7
200909/12Iowa State3Iowa35
200809/13Iowa17Iowa State5
200709/15Iowa State15Iowa13
200609/16Iowa27Iowa State17
200509/10Iowa State23Iowa3
200409/11Iowa17Iowa State10
200309/13Iowa State21Iowa40
200209/14Iowa31Iowa State36
200111/24Iowa State17Iowa14
200009/15Iowa14Iowa State24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa1462 Overs
Iowa State1157 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 144 - 72 - 42 - 3
Road Teams14 - 117 - 43 - 24 - 2

(#23) ISU at (#31) IOWA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatISUIOWA
Power RatePwr #23 #31
SP+SP+ #28 #16
Perf GradeGrade #81 #9
OffenseOff #81 #34
DefenseDef #77 #8
Spec TeamsST #73 #9
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #97 #44
Iowa State Notes
(11/30) Even w/ KSU, forced 2 TOs, Becht 13/35 for 137?
(11/23) OG'd Utah 405-224. Beat K St = B12 title game
(11/18) Bounce back vs Cincy, Off better, Pass D great
(11/13) Run Def mauled by KU, Rgame abysmal, all Becht
(11/2) Bad L vs T.T., Outgained TT, but TOs, 3rd down bad
(10/22) Def stop rate is 77%, #6 in CFB but bad Offs so far
(10/13) Even w/ WVU, clean game, 9-14 3rd down in W
(10/11) LB's are really beat up going into WVU game
(9/19) WR Noel in top 5 vs M2M coverage. Higgins good #2
(9/8) Great comeback vs Iowa, Becht good, Rgame awful
(9/4) Starting MLB Bacon out indefinitely, leg injury
(9/1) Line play awful vs N Dak, 86 yds rush vs 174 gave up
Iowa State Injury Report
Iowa Notes
(11/30) 5 1st downs, 0-10 on 3rd, still beat Nebraska
(11/23) Rgame mauled bad Terps. 3rd QB Stratton meh
(11/18) QB Sullivan out for season (ankle), Cade time?
(11/13) QB's awful, Rgame worse, Def bad vs UCLA
(11/2) Off humming, 2 straight W's. Killed Wisky
(10/30) QB McMamara out vs Wisky, Sullivan to start
(10/19) Def torched by Sparty. QB is a joke. Bad, bad loss
(10/12) Off Expl vs Wash, Rgame 220 (5.9 ypc), Def good
(10/6) Can't compete w/ elites, Pass game awful
(10/6) Def v good, Off awful outside of Kaleb Johnson
(9/8) McNamara awful vs ISU, RB/OL v good. Pass D bad
(9/1) QB: McNamara over Sullivan (NW, mobile)
Iowa Injury Report
Iowa State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ISU OffIOWA Def
Perf GradePerf #81 #8
SuccessSuc #99 #72
ExplosiveExp #7 #4
PPAPPA #62 #30
PowerPwr #42 #9
SP+SP+ #44 #5
Pts POPPO #37 #27
HavocHav #40 #51
Iowa State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ISU OffIOWA Def
Run GameRun #51 #42
Run SuccessRSuc #106 #97
Run ExplRExp #19 #1
PPAExp #74 #38
Run BlockR Blk #121 -
OL YdsOLY #102 #84
Stuff RateStuff #115 #115
TackleTak -  #30
Iowa State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ISU OffIOWA Def
Pass GamePass #92 #6
Pass SuccessPSuc #77 #51
Pass ExplPExl #27 #36
PPAExp #49 #39
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #104 #12
F7 HavocF7 #22 #68
DB HavocDB #94 #27
Iowa on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCatIOWA OffISU Def
Perf GradePerf #34 #77
SuccessSuc #72 #81
ExplosiveExp #110 #83
PPAPPA #100 #79
PowerPwr #88 #37
SP+SP+ #69 #24
Pts POPPO #84 #29
HavocHav #31 #84
Iowa Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffISU Def
Run GameRun #82 #116
Run SuccessRSuc #63 #101
Run ExplRExp #47 #112
PPAExp #71 #114
Run BlockR Blk #4 -
OL YdsOLY #89 #76
Stuff RateStuff #110 #43
TackleTak -  #114
Iowa Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCatIOWA OffISU Def
Pass GamePass #98 #17
Pass SuccessPSuc #94 #41
Pass ExplPExl #93 #73
PPAExp #93 #36
Pass Block/RushP Blk #15 #129
F7 HavocF7 #76 #85
DB HavocDB #7 #86
Program Comparison
IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 68° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 2
Iowa -3.0 (35.0)
Iowa State won at Iowa this year (20-19)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Iowa last year (20-19)
Iowa beat Iowa State in 2023 (20-13)
Iowa State beat Iowa in 2022 (10-7)

  
ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht27245760%35052597.7
Connor Moberly51050%49014.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen151752135.057
Abu Sama III12458724.777
Jaylon Jackson (Tr)9338824.251
Rocco Becht9831883.232
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylin Noel811194814.775
Jayden Higgins871183913.639
Gabe Burkle26296111.432
Benjamin Brahmer10179117.939

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beau Freyler843004
Malik Verdon754115
Kooper Ebel696110
Jeremiah Cooper481008
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J.R. Singleton325471
Kenard Snyder (Tr)82200
Joey Petersen466290
Domonique Orange245131
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Cooper481008
Myles Purchase354006
Malik Verdon754115

IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cade McNamara10417261%1017655.9
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)385372%474338.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaleb Johnson2401537216.475
Kamari Moulton8447335.668
Jaziun Patterson6330924.939
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)4715143.230
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob Gill (Tr)35411211.759
Luke Lachey2823108.328
Kaleb Johnson2218828.572
Reece Vander Zee14176312.619

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay Higgins1243165
Nick Jackson915357
Quinn Schulte620003
Sebastian Castro573011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Hurkett5612720
Aaron Graves338623
Max Llewellyn228673
Deontae Craig437361
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Jackson915357
Jermari Harris271007
Jay Higgins1243165