Miami at California Game Matchup
Miami logo Miami Hurricanes at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, October 5th 2024 (10:30 PM EDT)
Miami -10 (54.0) (-380)  Open: -14.0
Miami 39 - California: 38  (ACC)

 
Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (41 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
CAL coming off BYE
MIAMI is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Miami -13.5   (SP+ MIAMI -17.5)

Projected Score: MIAMI: 35 - CAL: 22 (58)
MIAMI Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
MIAMI Travel: 2574 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (36 - 43)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
 
Miami's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Miami at Florida-2.554.5W 41 - 17OY
Sat 9/7 Miami vs Florida A&M-46.555.5W 56 - 9OY
Sat 9/14 Miami vs Ball State-36.555.5W 62 - 0OY
Sat 9/21 Miami at South Florida-17.064.5W 50 - 15OY
Fri 9/27 Miami vs Virginia Tech-17.555.5W 38 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Miami at California-10.054.0W 39 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Miami at Louisville-4.561.5W 52 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 Miami vs Florida State-22.555.0W 36 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Miami vs Duke-21.055.5W 53 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Miami at Georgia Tech-9.564.5L 23 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Miami vs Wake Forest-23.567.0W 42 - 14UY
Sat 11/30 Miami at Syracuse-12.565.5L 38 - 42ON
Sat 12/28 Miami vs Iowa State-5.062.0L 41 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
California's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 California vs UC Davis-20.556.5W 31 - 13UN
Sat 9/7 California at Auburn+11.552.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/14 California vs San Diego State-18.548.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 9/21 California at Florida State+3.044.0L 9 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 California vs Miami+10.054.0L 38 - 39OY
Sat 10/12 California at Pittsburgh+3.557.5L 15 - 17UY
Sat 10/19 California vs NC State-9.546.0L 23 - 24ON
Sat 10/26 California vs Oregon State-13.051.0W 44 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8 California at Wake Forest-7.554.5W 46 - 36OY
Sat 11/16 California vs Syracuse-10.558.0L 25 - 33UN
Sat 11/23 California vs Stanford-15.053.5W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/30 California at SMU+11.554.5L 6 - 38UN
Wed 12/18 California vs UNLV+3.045.0L 13 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#37 (.27)43% (52)43.943% (64)3.35 (24)17344% (43)2583.99 (56)#37 (.14)39% (31)25.338% (27)39% (38)4.53 (125)57.81.71.4
CAL#61 (.21)41% (88)25.144% (59)3.39 (13)17338% (103)2184.12 (46)#87 (.21)45% (112)22.347% (103)44% (108)4.4 (118)44.82.22.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1343.940.543.3%3.991.7224311732585.147%52%43%44%14%.27
CAL Defense1322.32145%4.42.2 - - - - - 47%52%47%44%16%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense1325.330.838.5%4.531.4 - - - - - 47%52%38%39%17%.14
CAL Offense1325.130.940.5%4.122.2213911732184.550%49%44%38%18%.21

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1331:5221.941%52%6.157.81.71.462.6229.4
California1328:4021.439%52%5.544.82.22.24.51.9131.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1347% (96)43% (64)33.8173.25.124 (41).2 (44)3.35 (24)82% (10)8% (21)1.03 (51)
CAL Defense1347% (32)47% (103) - - - - .14 (67)3.1 (67)73% (66)9% (98)0.98 (55)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1347% (36)38% (27) - - - - .07 (28)2.65 (12)70% (45)12% (27)1 (71)
CAL Offense1350% (68)44% (59)38.2173.14.526 (30).24 (23)3.39 (13)75% (60)11% (86)1.11 (20)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1352% (42)44% (43)21.833.62587.711.923 (51)14 (107).39 (28)1.6 (55)30% (36)32% (63).36 (60)6% (91)2 (87)
CAL Defense1352% (103)44% (108) - - - - - - 12 (37).3 (88)1.5 (34)27% (129)35% (121).36 (91)7% (40)1.8 (10)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1352% (102)39% (38) - - - - - - 12 (37).22 (41)1.6 (60)33% (47)28% (33).3 (62)5% (104)2.2 (111)
CAL Offense1349% (64)38% (103)19.833.4218.26.51122 (61)16 (121).21 (92)1.6 (49)33% (84)27% (96).33 (70)7% (97)2 (67)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 19.13 #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
2024 Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 19.13   California: 6.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 21.6   California: 4.0




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 6.885 #44
California's Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
California's Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
2024 Talent Rating: 756.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
California's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
California's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 35
California 22


Projected Total Points: 58
California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

California's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05California38Miami39MiamiMiami -10California54.0Over
200812/27California24Miami17California
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California111 Overs
Miami100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#8) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 19.13 #8
Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51
Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.96 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Miami     Ratings Matchup     California
Power #8
#44
Off #1
#85
Def #52
#39
Talent #12
#40
SP+ #10
#55
SP+ Off #1
#65
SP+ Def #51
#40

Rematch from Week 6
Miami 10.0 (54.0)
Miami won at California this year (39-38)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat California last year (39-38)

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 77°

Team Information
Injuries: MIAMI | CAL
Depth Chart: MIAMI | CAL
Rosters: MIAMI | CAL
(#44) California Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.885 #44
Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40
Talent Rating: 756.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.07 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Great in Scoring Position 3.23 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


California Notes
(12/19) QB Caminong cannot play. Period.
(12/11) Hired OC Bryan Harsin (Aub/Boise HC)
(11/25) 5 L's by avg of 3.4 ppg, lowest in CFB
(11/23) Mendoza 299, 3 TDs/Rgame awful in W vs Stan
(11/18) Def bad, 2 TOs cost vs Cuse. Rgame OK, QB bad
(11/13) QB Mend. torched Wake, Rgame bad, WTF Ott?
(10/27) QB Mend. torched Oreg St, Run D outstanding TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) OG'd Pitt & D held 1-12 3rd down, 12 flags killer
(10/12) Cal has lost 3 straight heart wrenching games


  
Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cameron Ward30545467%43133979.5
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)1591002106.375
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Cameron Ward6020443.424
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Horton56616511.030
Sam Brown (Tr)36509214.176
Damien Martinez (Tr)17204012.036
Elija Lofton9150116.740

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Lance Guidry
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Jaden Harris404202
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116
Tyler Baron (Tr)3811660
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Baron (Tr)3811660
Akheem Mesidor329620
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)308631
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116
OJ Frederique Jr.231006
Ja'Dais Richard272023

California's OC Mike Bloesch
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Fernando Mendoza26538669%30041667.8
CJ Harris (Tr)193161%184015.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaivian Thomas10062676.375
Jadyn Ott11638543.353
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)2612414.860
Fernando Mendoza8710521.250
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jack Endries56623211.157
Nyziah Hunter40578514.560
Trond Grizzell27401114.951
Jonathan Brady (Tr)34366310.830

View California's Full Roster
California's DC Peter Sirmon
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)10812564
Cade Uluave683152
Marcus Harris (Tr)443005
Aidan Keanaaina (Tr)433111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)10812564
David Reese228512
Ryan McCulloch185381
Nathan Burrell295311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Harris (Tr)443005
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)10812564
Cameron Sidney293113