Miami at California - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#3)Miami Hurricanes at California Golden Bears

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (10:30 PM EDT)
Miami -10 (54.0) (-380) Open: -14.0
Miami 39 - California: 38 (ACC)

Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (41 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CAL coming off BYE
MIAMI is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Miami -13.5 (SP+ MIAMI -17.5)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 34 - CAL: 21 (55)
MIAMI Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
MIAMI Travel: 2574 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Golden Bears (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (36 - 43)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MIAMI Players
CAL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Miami at Florida	-2.5	54.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Miami vs Florida A&M	-46.5	55.5	W 56 - 9	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Miami vs Ball State	-36.5	55.5	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Miami at South Florida	-17.0	64.5	W 50 - 15	O	Y
Fri 9/27	Miami vs Virginia Tech	-17.5	55.5	W 38 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Miami at California	-10.0	54.0	W 39 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Miami at Louisville	-4.5	61.5	W 52 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Miami vs Florida State	-22.5	55.0	W 36 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/2	Miami vs Duke	-21.0	55.5	W 53 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Miami at Georgia Tech	-9.5	64.5	L 23 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Miami vs Wake Forest	-23.5	67.0	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Miami at Syracuse	-12.5	65.5	L 38 - 42	O	N
Sat 12/28	Miami vs Iowa State	-5.0	62.0	L 41 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

California's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	California vs UC Davis	-20.5	56.5	W 31 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/7	California at Auburn	+11.5	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/14	California vs San Diego State	-18.5	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/21	California at Florida State	+3.0	44.0	L 9 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	California vs Miami	+10.0	54.0	L 38 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	California at Pittsburgh	+3.5	57.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/19	California vs NC State	-9.5	46.0	L 23 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/26	California vs Oregon State	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8	California at Wake Forest	-7.5	54.5	W 46 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/16	California vs Syracuse	-10.5	58.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/23	California vs Stanford	-15.0	53.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/30	California at SMU	+11.5	54.5	L 6 - 38	U	N
Wed 12/18	California vs UNLV	+3.0	45.0	L 13 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)	43.9	56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)	25.3	38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)	25.1	40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)	22.3	41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)		56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)		38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4
CAL	#79 (.17)	42% (88)		40% (104)	2.68 (120)	122	43% (57)	259	3.07 (125)	#48 (.14)	40% (52)		41% (53)	40% (67)	3.23 (20)	59.7	0.8	1.7

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Offense	13	43.9	40.5	52.5%	4.96	1	25	497	165	332	5.5	43%	57%	56%	50%	10%	.4
CAL Defense	13	22.3	21	40.4%	3.23	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	41%	40%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Defense	13	25.3	30.8	38.1%	4.02	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	38%	38%	18%	.16
CAL Offense	13	25.1	30.9	41.5%	3.07	0.8	21	381	122	259	3.6	41%	58%	40%	43%	18%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami	13	30:13	25.2	56%	65%	6.2	63.1	1	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29.7
California	13	30:36	20.7	37%	44%	7.4	59.7	0.8	1.7	5.4	2.5	2	29.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense	13	43% (114)	56% (1)	30.1	165.5	5.5	28 (25)	.32 (5)	3.59 (4)	90% (1)	6% (3)	0.95 (73)
CAL Defense	13	47% (28)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.08 (44)	2.99 (65)	86% (129)	10% (72)	0.91 (37)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense	13	45% (11)	38% (16)	-	-	-	-	.08 (49)	2.6 (16)	57% (4)	11% (43)	1.15 (125)
CAL Offense	13	41% (121)	40% (104)	33.7	122.2	3.6	17 (84)	.07 (99)	2.68 (120)	69% (98)	13% (126)	1.1 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense	13	57% (20)	50% (7)	23.9	35.1	331.6	9.5	13.9	38 (1)	7 (26)	.47 (6)	1.7 (26)	27% (5)	42% (1)	.69 (1)	4% (15)	2.3 (6)
CAL Defense	13	53% (103)	40% (67)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.21 (52)	1.7 (92)	33% (44)	30% (59)	.39 (102)	8% (12)	2.2 (111)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense	13	55% (125)	38% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.23 (66)	1.7 (113)	36% (9)	36% (123)	.45 (115)	7% (34)	2.1 (84)
CAL Offense	13	58% (14)	43% (57)	23.2	35.7	258.6	7.3	11.1	16 (87)	7 (26)	.25 (72)	1.4 (126)	36% (128)	30% (85)	.36 (58)	5% (23)	2.2 (23)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 19.13 #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 19.13 California: 6.885

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 21.6 California: 4.0

California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 6.885 #44
California's Offense Rating: 18.12 #85
California's Defense Rating: 6.35 #39
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #38
California's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
California's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #55
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #65
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Miami 34
California 21

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami 32
California 20

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Miami 32
California 28

Total Points: 60

California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

California's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	California	38	Miami	39	Miami -10	California	54.0	Over
2008	12/27	California	24	Miami	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
California	1	1	1 Overs
Miami	1	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#8) MIAMI at (#44) CAL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIAMI	CAL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#8	#44
SP+SP+	#10	#55
Perf GradeGrade	#3	#72
OffenseOff	#3	#93
DefenseDef	#14	#32
Spec TeamsST	#97	#13
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#13	#38

Miami Injury Report

California Notes(12/24) Signed QB D Brown (Ohio St)
(12/19) QB Caminong cannot play. Period.
(12/11) Hired OC Bryan Harsin (Aub/Boise HC)
(11/25) 5 L's by avg of 3.4 ppg, lowest in CFB
(11/23) Mendoza 299, 3 TDs/Rgame awful in W vs Stan
(11/18) Def bad, 2 TOs cost vs Cuse. Rgame OK, QB bad
(11/13) QB Mend. torched Wake, Rgame bad, WTF Ott?
(10/27) QB Mend. torched Oreg St, Run D outstanding TW
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 14 Def TO's, 4th in CFB
(10/12) OG'd Pitt & D held 1-12 3rd down, 12 flags killer
(10/12) Cal has lost 3 straight heart wrenching games
(9/8) Huge W @ Aub. Def held to 286yds & 5 TOs
California Injury Report

Miami on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	CAL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#3	#32
SuccessSuc	#1	#52
ExplosiveExp	#22	#88
PPAPPA	#2	#48
PowerPwr	#1	#39
SP+SP+	#1	#40
Pts POPPO	#2	#20
HavocHav	#4	#42

Miami Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	CAL Def
Run GameRun	#2	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#53
Run ExplRExp	#73	#37
PPAExp	#5	#44
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#65
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#71
TackleTak	-	#28

Miami Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	CAL Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#47
Pass SuccessPSuc	#7	#67
Pass ExplPExl	#26	#92
PPAExp	#6	#52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#27	#45
F7 HavocF7	#3	#72
DB HavocDB	#15	#12

California on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	MIAMI Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#93	#14
SuccessSuc	#88	#26
ExplosiveExp	#52	#130
PPAPPA	#79	#69
PowerPwr	#85	#52
SP+SP+	#65	#51
Pts POPPO	#125	#91
HavocHav	#102	#39

California Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	MIAMI Def
Run GameRun	#107	#9
Run SuccessRSuc	#104	#16
Run ExplRExp	#22	#125
PPAExp	#99	#49
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#120	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#7
TackleTak	-	#99

California Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	CAL Off	MIAMI Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#59
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#126	#113
PPAExp	#72	#66
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#90	#14
F7 HavocF7	#126	#43
DB HavocDB	#23	#34

Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 77°

Rematch from Week 6
Miami 10.0 (54.0)
Miami won at California this year (39-38)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat California last year (39-38)

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cameron Ward	305	454	67%	4313	39	7	9.5
Emory Williams	16	26	62%	187	1	1	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)	159	1002	10	6.3	75
Mark Fletcher Jr.	112	607	9	5.4	30
Jordan Lyle	54	400	4	7.4	91
Cameron Ward	60	204	4	3.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Restrepo	69	1127	11	16.3	77
Jacolby George	53	752	8	14.2	49
Isaiah Horton	56	616	5	11.0	30
Elijah Arroyo	35	590	7	16.9	74

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Lance Guidry (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Francisco Mauigoa	96	11	2	5	5
Wesley Bissainthe	59	5	2	1	1
Jaden Harris	40	4	2	0	2
Mishael Powell (Tr)	38	2	1	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Akheem Mesidor	32	9	6	2	0
Tyler Baron (Tr)	38	11	6	6	0
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)	30	8	6	3	1
Rueben Bain Jr.	23	6	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daryl Porter Jr.	28	0	0	2	7
OJ Frederique Jr.	23	1	0	0	6
Mishael Powell (Tr)	38	2	1	1	6

CAL's OC Mike Bloesch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Fernando Mendoza	265	386	69%	3004	16	6	7.8
CJ Harris (Tr)	19	31	61%	184	0	1	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaivian Thomas	100	626	7	6.3	75
Jadyn Ott	116	385	4	3.3	53
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	26	124	1	4.8	60
Fernando Mendoza	87	105	2	1.2	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jack Endries	56	623	2	11.1	57
Nyziah Hunter	40	578	5	14.5	60
Trond Grizzell	27	401	1	14.9	51
Jonathan Brady (Tr)	34	366	3	10.8	30

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Peter Sirmon (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
Craig Woodson	70	3	0	1	7
Cade Uluave	68	3	1	5	2
Nohl Williams	51	1	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Carlton	47	11	9	8	1
Teddye Buchanan (Tr)	108	12	5	6	4
David Reese	22	8	5	1	2
Ryan McCulloch	18	5	3	8	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Nohl Williams	51	1	1	8
Craig Woodson	70	3	1	7
Lu-Magia Hearns III	12	0	0	5