Miami at Louisville - 2024 Matchup Preview
Miami logo Miami Hurricanes at Louisville CardinalsLouisville logo
Saturday, October 19th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Miami -4.5 (61.5) (-185)  Open: -1.0
Miami 52 - Louisville: 45  (ACC)

 
Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (41 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
MIAMI coming off BYE
LOU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami -5   (SP+ MIAMI -8)

Projected Score: MIAMI: 34 - LOU: 29 (65)
MIAMI Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
MIAMI Travel: 905 miles
Cardinals (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 24 (42 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Miami at Florida-2.554.5W 41 - 17OY
Sat 9/7 Miami vs Florida A&M-46.555.5W 56 - 9OY
Sat 9/14 Miami vs Ball State-36.555.5W 62 - 0OY
Sat 9/21 Miami at South Florida-17.064.5W 50 - 15OY
Fri 9/27 Miami vs Virginia Tech-17.555.5W 38 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Miami at California-10.054.0W 39 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Miami at Louisville-4.561.5W 52 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 Miami vs Florida State-22.555.0W 36 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Miami vs Duke-21.055.5W 53 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Miami at Georgia Tech-9.564.5L 23 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Miami vs Wake Forest-23.567.0W 42 - 14UY
Sat 11/30 Miami at Syracuse-12.565.5L 38 - 42ON
Sat 12/28 Miami vs Iowa State-5.062.0L 41 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Louisville's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Louisville vs Austin Peay-38.554.5W 62 - 0OY
Sat 9/7 Louisville vs Jacksonville State-27.556.5W 49 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Louisville vs Georgia Tech-9.556.0W 31 - 19UY
Sat 9/28 Louisville at Notre Dame+6.545.0L 24 - 31ON
Sat 10/5 Louisville vs SMU-6.555.0L 27 - 34ON
Sat 10/12 Louisville at Virginia-7.054.0W 24 - 20UN
Sat 10/19 Louisville vs Miami+4.561.5L 45 - 52ON
Fri 10/25 Louisville at Boston College-7.054.0W 31 - 27ON
Sat 11/2 Louisville at Clemson+11.062.5W 33 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Louisville at Stanford-21.057.5L 35 - 38ON
Sat 11/23 Louisville vs Pittsburgh-7.057.0W 37 - 9UY
Sat 11/30 Louisville at Kentucky-3.548.5W 41 - 14OY
Tue 12/31 Louisville vs Washington+1.050.5W 35 - 34OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 6, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#37 (.27)43% (52)43.943% (64)3.35 (24)17344% (43)2583.99 (56)#37 (.14)39% (31)25.338% (27)39% (38)4.53 (125)57.81.71.4
LOU#46 (.23)48% (11)36.551% (12)3.07 (80)17947% (26)2364.04 (53)#12 (.08)36% (13)24.135% (14)37% (16)3.9 (77)48.61.41.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1343.940.543.3%3.991.7224311732585.147%52%43%44%14%.27
LOU Defense1424.121.335.8%3.91.4 - - - - - 47%53%35%37%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense1325.330.838.5%4.531.4 - - - - - 47%52%38%39%17%.14
LOU Offense1436.541.848.4%4.041.4214151792364.751%48%51%47%16%.23

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1331:5221.941%52%6.157.81.71.462.6229.4
Louisville1432:1320.837%54%5.648.61.41.45.42.3130.8
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1347% (96)43% (64)33.8173.25.124 (41).2 (44)3.35 (24)82% (10)8% (21)1.03 (51)
LOU Defense1447% (26)35% (14) - - - - -.01 (14)2.4 (3)68% (37)12% (26)1 (68)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1347% (36)38% (27) - - - - .07 (28)2.65 (12)70% (45)12% (27)1 (71)
LOU Offense1451% (57)51% (12)38.1178.54.731 (17).2 (43)3.07 (80)73% (78)10% (64)0.93 (101)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1352% (42)44% (43)21.833.62587.711.923 (51)14 (107).39 (28)1.6 (55)30% (36)32% (63).36 (60)6% (91)2 (87)
LOU Defense1453% (111)37% (16) - - - - - - 13 (26).19 (23)1.8 (123)37% (7)23% (3).24 (35)7% (32)2.4 (131)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1352% (102)39% (38) - - - - - - 12 (37).22 (41)1.6 (60)33% (47)28% (33).3 (62)5% (104)2.2 (111)
LOU Offense1448% (74)47% (26)1929.1236.48.112.422 (61)12 (85).3 (64)1.6 (82)26% (6)37% (18).45 (33)6% (74)2.1 (42)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 19.13 #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
2024 Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 19.13   Louisville: 15.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 21.6   Louisville: 13.6




Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 15.52 #20
Louisville's Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Louisville's Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
2024 Talent Rating: 770.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Louisville's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Louisville's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 34
Louisville 29


Projected Total Points: 65
Louisville Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Louisville's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Louisville45Miami52MiamiMiami -4.5Miami61.5Over
202311/18Miami31Louisville38LouisvilleMiami -1.5Louisville46.5Over
202009/19Louisville34Miami47MiamiMiami -2.5Miami65.5Over
201911/09Miami52Louisville27MiamiMiami -6.5Miami49.0Over
201409/01Louisville31Miami13LouisvilleLouisville -5.5Louisville55.5Under
201312/28Louisville36Miami9LouisvilleLouisville -5.5Louisville60.0Under
200609/16Louisville31Miami7Louisville
200410/14Miami41Louisville38Miami
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisville434 Overs
Miami432 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 33 - 33 - 10 - 2
Road Teams3 - 53 - 32 - 01 - 3

(#8) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 19.13 #8
Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51
Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.96 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Miami     Ratings Matchup     Louisville
Power #8
#20
Off #1
#26
Def #52
#40
Talent #12
#35
SP+ #10
#21
SP+ Off #1
#7
SP+ Def #51
#40

Rematch from Week 8
Miami 4.5 (61.5)
Miami won at Louisville this year (52-45)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Louisville last year (52-45)
Louisville beat Miami in 2023 (38-31)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 67°

Team Information
Injuries: MIAMI | LOU
Depth Chart: MIAMI | LOU
Rosters: MIAMI | LOU
(#20) Louisville Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 15.52 #20
Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40
Talent Rating: 770.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.27 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.98 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Louisville Notes
(11/19) DB Holloway D.V arrest after blowing Stan game
(11/18) Dumbest L @ Stan. Off was decent, Pass D torched
(11/2) 200 yds Rushing, Def owned Clemson. Easy Nov
(10/23) Expl WR Lacy (#3) ops out before BC game
(10/19) Def torched by Miami. Great fight, Shough tough
(10/13) Def mauled by UVA, season saving comeback W
(10/6) Season slipping after SMU L. Rgame/Pass D bad
(9/28) Outgained ND by 100 yds. 3 TOs. Rgame better
(9/28) Shough a tough QB, gutty vs ND. Should've won
(9/23) WR J Thompson out for season (knee)


  
Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cameron Ward30545467%43133979.5
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)1591002106.375
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Cameron Ward6020443.424
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Horton56616511.030
Sam Brown (Tr)36509214.176
Damien Martinez (Tr)17204012.036
Elija Lofton9150116.740

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Lance Guidry
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Jaden Harris404202
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116
Tyler Baron (Tr)3811660
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Baron (Tr)3811660
Akheem Mesidor329620
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)308631
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116
OJ Frederique Jr.231006
Ja'Dais Richard272023

Louisville's OC Brian Brohm
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tyler Shough (Tr)24438963%31952368.2
Harrison Bailey243373%227306.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaac Brown1651173117.177
Duke Watson6759778.968
Keyjuan Brown4724335.224
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)5017833.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ja'Corey Brooks (Tr)611013916.686
Chris Bell43737417.168
Mark Redman (Tr)23251310.932
Caullin Lacy (Tr)18196110.934

View Louisville's Full Roster
Louisville's DC Ron English
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Quinn824200
Stanquan Clark768102
Tamarion McDonald (Tr)584201
D'Angelo Hutchinson522003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tramel Logan Jr.206420
Jared Dawson197400
Thor Griffith (Tr)195300
Jordan Guerad (Tr)224321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Thornton (Tr)380016
Tayon Holloway (Tr)162105
D'Angelo Hutchinson522003