Miami at Louisville - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#2)Miami Hurricanes at Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Miami -4.5 (61.5) (-185) Open: -1.0
Miami 52 - Louisville: 45 (ACC)

Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (41 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MIAMI coming off BYE
LOU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Miami -5 (SP+ MIAMI -8)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 34 - LOU: 29 (63)
MIAMI Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
MIAMI Travel: 905 miles

Cardinals (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (10 - 4)
Avg Score : 37 - 24 (42 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MIAMI Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Miami at Florida	-2.5	54.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Miami vs Florida A&M	-46.5	55.5	W 56 - 9	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Miami vs Ball State	-36.5	55.5	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Miami at South Florida	-17.0	64.5	W 50 - 15	O	Y
Fri 9/27	Miami vs Virginia Tech	-17.5	55.5	W 38 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Miami at California	-10.0	54.0	W 39 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Miami at Louisville	-4.5	61.5	W 52 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Miami vs Florida State	-22.5	55.0	W 36 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/2	Miami vs Duke	-21.0	55.5	W 53 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Miami at Georgia Tech	-9.5	64.5	L 23 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Miami vs Wake Forest	-23.5	67.0	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Miami at Syracuse	-12.5	65.5	L 38 - 42	O	N
Sat 12/28	Miami vs Iowa State	-5.0	62.0	L 41 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Louisville's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Louisville vs Austin Peay	-38.5	54.5	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Louisville vs Jacksonville State	-27.5	56.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-9.5	56.0	W 31 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Louisville at Notre Dame	+6.5	45.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Louisville vs SMU	-6.5	55.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Louisville at Virginia	-7.0	54.0	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Louisville vs Miami	+4.5	61.5	L 45 - 52	O	N
Fri 10/25	Louisville at Boston College	-7.0	54.0	W 31 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/2	Louisville at Clemson	+11.0	62.5	W 33 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Louisville at Stanford	-21.0	57.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/23	Louisville vs Pittsburgh	-7.0	57.0	W 37 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Louisville at Kentucky	-3.5	48.5	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Tue 12/31	Louisville vs Washington	+1.0	50.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)	43.9	56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)	25.3	38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)	36.5	48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)	24.1	40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)		56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)		38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Offense	13	43.9	40.5	52.5%	4.96	1	25	497	165	332	5.5	43%	57%	56%	50%	10%	.4
LOU Defense	13	24.1	21.3	40.2%	3.98	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	40%	40%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Defense	13	25.3	30.8	38.1%	4.02	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	38%	38%	18%	.16
LOU Offense	13	36.5	41.8	46.4%	4.27	0.8	20	424	173	251	5.8	45%	54%	48%	45%	13%	.31

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami	13	30:13	25.2	56%	65%	6.2	63.1	1	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29.7
Louisville	13	27:39	20.1	40%	40%	5.9	46.1	0.8	1.2	5.8	2.2	1	30.3

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense	13	43% (114)	56% (1)	30.1	165.5	5.5	28 (25)	.32 (5)	3.59 (4)	90% (1)	6% (3)	0.95 (73)
LOU Defense	13	49% (50)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	.08 (43)	2.9 (51)	65% (25)	11% (43)	0.99 (71)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense	13	45% (11)	38% (16)	-	-	-	-	.08 (49)	2.6 (16)	57% (4)	11% (43)	1.15 (125)
LOU Offense	13	45% (103)	48% (20)	29.9	172.7	5.8	27 (30)	.2 (35)	3.09 (56)	65% (116)	8% (27)	1.04 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense	13	57% (20)	50% (7)	23.9	35.1	331.6	9.5	13.9	38 (1)	7 (26)	.47 (6)	1.7 (26)	27% (5)	42% (1)	.69 (1)	4% (15)	2.3 (6)
LOU Defense	13	51% (88)	40% (65)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.27 (87)	1.7 (111)	31% (78)	33% (99)	.26 (48)	5% (94)	1.8 (14)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense	13	55% (125)	38% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.23 (66)	1.7 (113)	36% (9)	36% (123)	.45 (115)	7% (34)	2.1 (84)
LOU Offense	13	54% (32)	45% (30)	19.6	30.9	251.5	8.1	12.8	23 (41)	6 (10)	.41 (9)	1.7 (34)	30% (40)	38% (8)	.5 (9)	5% (40)	2.1 (42)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 19.13 #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 19.13 Louisville: 15.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 21.6 Louisville: 13.6

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 15.52 #20
Louisville's Offense Rating: 24.49 #26
Louisville's Defense Rating: 6.51 #40
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #41
Louisville's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Louisville's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.6 #21
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Miami 34
Louisville 29

Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami 36
Louisville 26

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Louisville 34
Miami 32

Total Points: 66

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Louisville's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/17	Miami	21	Louisville	24	Miami -10.5	Louisville	49.5	Under
2024	10/19	Louisville	45	Miami	52	Miami -4.5	Miami	61.5	Over
2023	11/18	Miami	31	Louisville	38	Miami -1.5	Louisville	46.5	Over
2020	09/19	Louisville	34	Miami	47	Miami -2.5	Miami	65.5	Over
2019	11/09	Miami	52	Louisville	27	Miami -6.5	Miami	49.0	Over
2014	09/01	Louisville	31	Miami	13	Louisville -5.5	Louisville	55.5	Under
2013	12/28	Louisville	36	Miami	9	Louisville -5.5	Louisville	60.0	Under
2006	09/16	Louisville	31	Miami	7
2004	10/14	Miami	41	Louisville	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	5	4	4 Overs
Miami	4	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 4	3 - 4	3 - 2	0 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 5	4 - 3	2 - 0	2 - 3

(#8) MIAMI at (#20) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIAMI	LOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#8	#20
SP+SP+	#10	#21
Perf GradeGrade	#3	#11
OffenseOff	#3	#12
DefenseDef	#14	#16
Spec TeamsST	#97	#35
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#13	#41

Miami Injury Report

Louisville Notes(12/14) Signed QB Miller Moss (USC)
(11/19) DB Holloway D.V arrest after blowing Stan game
(11/18) Dumbest L @ Stan. Off was decent, Pass D torched
(11/2) 200 yds Rushing, Def owned Clemson. Easy Nov
(10/23) Expl WR Lacy (#3) ops out before BC game
(10/19) Def torched by Miami. Great fight, Shough tough
(10/13) Def mauled by UVA, season saving comeback W
(10/6) Season slipping after SMU L. Rgame/Pass D bad
(9/28) Outgained ND by 100 yds. 3 TOs. Rgame better
(9/28) Shough a tough QB, gutty vs ND. Should've won
(9/23) WR J Thompson out for season (knee)
(9/23) Star CB Riley ? for ND game (ankle)
Louisville Injury Report

Miami on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	LOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#3	#16
SuccessSuc	#1	#49
ExplosiveExp	#22	#109
PPAPPA	#2	#73
PowerPwr	#1	#40
SP+SP+	#1	#40
Pts POPPO	#2	#87
HavocHav	#4	#62

Miami Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#2	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#44
Run ExplRExp	#73	#71
PPAExp	#5	#43
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#51
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#22
TackleTak	-	#65

Miami Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	#7	#65
Pass ExplPExl	#26	#111
PPAExp	#6	#87
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#27	#17
F7 HavocF7	#3	#43
DB HavocDB	#15	#94

Louisville on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	MIAMI Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#14
SuccessSuc	#26	#26
ExplosiveExp	#14	#130
PPAPPA	#15	#69
PowerPwr	#26	#52
SP+SP+	#7	#51
Pts POPPO	#31	#91
HavocHav	#23	#39

Louisville Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	MIAMI Def
Run GameRun	#22	#9
Run SuccessRSuc	#20	#16
Run ExplRExp	#43	#125
PPAExp	#35	#49
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#56	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#54	#7
TackleTak	-	#99

Louisville Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	LOU Off	MIAMI Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#59
Pass SuccessPSuc	#30	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#34	#113
PPAExp	#9	#66
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#79	#14
F7 HavocF7	#27	#43
DB HavocDB	#40	#34

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 67°

Rematch from Week 8
Miami 4.5 (61.5)
Miami won at Louisville this year (52-45)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Louisville last year (52-45)
Louisville beat Miami in 2023 (38-31)

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cameron Ward	305	454	67%	4313	39	7	9.5
Emory Williams	16	26	62%	187	1	1	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)	159	1002	10	6.3	75
Mark Fletcher Jr.	112	607	9	5.4	30
Jordan Lyle	54	400	4	7.4	91
Cameron Ward	60	204	4	3.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Restrepo	69	1127	11	16.3	77
Jacolby George	53	752	8	14.2	49
Isaiah Horton	56	616	5	11.0	30
Elijah Arroyo	35	590	7	16.9	74

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Lance Guidry (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Francisco Mauigoa	96	11	2	5	5
Wesley Bissainthe	59	5	2	1	1
Jaden Harris	40	4	2	0	2
Mishael Powell (Tr)	38	2	1	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Akheem Mesidor	32	9	6	2	0
Tyler Baron (Tr)	38	11	6	6	0
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)	30	8	6	3	1
Rueben Bain Jr.	23	6	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daryl Porter Jr.	28	0	0	2	7
OJ Frederique Jr.	23	1	0	0	6
Mishael Powell (Tr)	38	2	1	1	6

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Shough (Tr)	244	389	63%	3195	23	6	8.2
Harrison Bailey	24	33	73%	227	3	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaac Brown	165	1173	11	7.1	77
Duke Watson	67	597	7	8.9	68
Keyjuan Brown	47	243	3	5.2	24
Donald Chaney Jr. (Tr)	50	178	3	3.6	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Corey Brooks (Tr)	61	1013	9	16.6	86
Chris Bell	43	737	4	17.1	68
Mark Redman (Tr)	23	251	3	10.9	32
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	17	230	0	13.5	58

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
TJ Quinn	82	4	2	0
Stanquan Clark	76	8	1	2
M.J. Griffin	63	2	1	2
Tamarion McDonald (Tr)	58	4	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Ashton Gillotte	43	10	5	10
Tramel Logan Jr.	20	6	4	2
Jared Dawson	19	7	4	0
Thor Griffith (Tr)	19	5	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quincy Riley	33	3	0	0	9
Corey Thornton (Tr)	38	0	0	1	6
Tayon Holloway (Tr)	16	2	1	0	5