Iowa State at Houston - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Iowa State -16 (43.0) (-750) Open: -11.0
Iowa State 20 - Houston: 0 (Big 12)

Cyclones (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (53 - 48)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (22 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 90.3° (28% Hum)
Wind: 12.7 MPH
HOU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Iowa State -16 (SP+ ISU -18.5)
Projected Score: ISU: 31 - HOU: 15 (46)
ISU Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
ISU Travel: 855 miles

Cougars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ISU Players
HOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Iowa State vs North Dakota	-30.5	51.5	W 21 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/7	Iowa State at Iowa	+3.0	35.0	W 20 - 19	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Iowa State vs Arkansas State	-20.5	52.0	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Iowa State at Houston	-16.0	43.0	W 20 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Iowa State vs Baylor	-13.0	45.0	W 43 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Iowa State at West Virginia	-3.0	54.0	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Iowa State vs UCF	-13.0	49.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Iowa State vs Texas Tech	-13.5	55.0	L 22 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/9	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	50.5	L 36 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/16	Iowa State vs Cincinnati	-7.0	52.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Iowa State at Utah	-6.5	42.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/30	Iowa State vs Kansas State	-2.5	51.5	W 29 - 21	U	Y
Sat 12/7	Iowa State vs Arizona State	-1.5	51.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/28	Iowa State vs Miami	+5.0	62.0	W 42 - 41	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule

Houston's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Houston vs UNLV	-3.0	56.0	L 7 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/7	Houston at Oklahoma	+27.5	48.5	L 12 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Houston vs Rice	-3.5	43.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Houston at Cincinnati	+4.0	47.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/28	Houston vs Iowa State	+16.0	43.0	L 0 - 20	U	N
Fri 10/4	Houston at TCU	+16.5	52.0	W 30 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Houston vs Kansas	+4.5	45.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/26	Houston vs Utah	+4.5	36.0	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Houston vs Kansas State	+12.5	46.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Houston at Arizona	+1.0	46.5	L 3 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/23	Houston vs Baylor	+7.0	51.0	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/30	Houston at BYU	+9.5	39.5	L 18 - 30	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ISU	#57 (.21)	37% (119)	27.4	32% (132)	2.34 (133)	120	41% (72)	245	3.72 (83)	#32 (.13)	39% (36)	20.2	41% (46)	39% (35)	3.35 (27)	43.5	0.8	1.5
HOU	#104 (.13)	40% (97)	29.1	39% (110)	2.97 (96)	119	41% (75)	241	3.44 (100)	#114 (.26)	47% (126)	22.8	47% (104)	48% (130)	4.26 (111)	49.2	1.3	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ISU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ISU Offense	13	27.4	22.2	36.8%	3.72	0.8	16	365	120	245	4.1	48%	52%	32%	41%	14%	.21
HOU Defense	12	22.8	24.2	46.7%	4.26	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	47%	48%	13%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ISU Defense	13	20.2	21.6	39.2%	3.35	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	41%	39%	16%	.13
HOU Offense	12	29.1	25.7	39.7%	3.44	1.3	19	360	119	241	4	42%	56%	39%	41%	14%	.13

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Iowa State	13	29:09	16.3	39%	63%	4.8	43.5	0.8	1.5	4.8	1.6	1	30.2
Houston	12	27:56	19.2	36%	26%	5.7	49.2	1.3	1.2	5	1.9	3	28.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ISU Offense	13	48% (87)	32% (132)	29.4	119.9	4.1	16 (89)	.01 (126)	2.34 (133)	59% (130)	9% (44)	1.18 (5)
HOU Defense	12	51% (89)	47% (104)	-	-	-	-	.23 (111)	3.24 (101)	75% (79)	8% (110)	1.05 (93)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ISU Defense	13	48% (43)	41% (46)	-	-	-	-	.05 (20)	2.77 (20)	68% (38)	8% (123)	0.9 (28)
HOU Offense	12	42% (115)	39% (110)	29.9	118.8	4	10 (124)	.06 (116)	2.97 (96)	59% (129)	9% (57)	0.98 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ISU Offense	13	52% (44)	41% (72)	18.5	29.3	245	8.4	13.2	23 (51)	8 (30)	.42 (25)	1.8 (11)	37% (132)	30% (76)	.26 (91)	5% (44)	2 (100)
HOU Defense	12	47% (40)	48% (130)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.35 (108)	1.5 (27)	30% (98)	38% (128)	.47 (125)	4% (124)	2.1 (91)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ISU Defense	13	50% (84)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.28 (74)	1.7 (116)	34% (41)	28% (35)	.23 (24)	8% (9)	2 (60)
HOU Offense	12	56% (24)	41% (75)	21.7	33.9	241.4	7.1	11.1	24 (41)	13 (97)	.25 (77)	1.5 (86)	34% (94)	25% (111)	.18 (107)	5% (20)	2.1 (56)

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 12.07 #23
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 22.95 #42
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 6.20 #37
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Iowa State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Iowa State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #28
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #44
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 12.07 Houston: -4.585

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 10.3 Houston: -8.2

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: -4.585 #86
Houston's Offense Rating: 9.85 #129
Houston's Defense Rating: 8.04 #55
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #62
Houston's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Houston's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.2 #101
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #118
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.6

Iowa State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 31
Houston 15

Projected Total Points: 46

Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Houston's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 10
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Houston	0	Iowa State	20	Iowa State -16	Iowa State	43.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Houston	0	0	0 Overs
Iowa State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#23) ISU at (#86) HOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ISU	HOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#23	#86
SP+SP+	#28	#101
Perf GradeGrade	#81	#125
OffenseOff	#81	#128
DefenseDef	#77	#99
Spec TeamsST	#73	#109
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#62

Iowa State Notes(11/30) Even w/ KSU, forced 2 TOs, Becht 13/35 for 137?
(11/23) OG'd Utah 405-224. Beat K St = B12 title game
(11/18) Bounce back vs Cincy, Off better, Pass D great
(11/13) Run Def mauled by KU, Rgame abysmal, all Becht
(11/2) Bad L vs T.T., Outgained TT, but TOs, 3rd down bad
(10/22) Def stop rate is 77%, #6 in CFB but bad Offs so far
(10/13) Even w/ WVU, clean game, 9-14 3rd down in W
(10/11) LB's are really beat up going into WVU game
(9/19) WR Noel in top 5 vs M2M coverage. Higgins good #2
(9/8) Great comeback vs Iowa, Becht good, Rgame awful
(9/4) Starting MLB Bacon out indefinitely, leg injury
(9/1) Line play awful vs N Dak, 86 yds rush vs 174 gave up
Iowa State Injury Report

Houston Notes(12/27) Signed QB Weigman (A&M) & more
(12/14) Hired DC A. Armstrong (UF DC 23-24)
(12/5) Fired OC Kevin Barbay
(12/5) Hired OC Slade Nagle, ST/TE coach @ LSU
(11/25) 4 TOs, 3-10 on 3rd, 239 total yards in bad Bay L
(11/25) Def played great vs Bay, forced 3 INTs, Off sucks
(11/18) Regress vs Zona, Off abysmal, 3 TOs, Def OK
(11/2) Huge W over K St. Chris 11-11, Run D great
(10/27) 13 Passes, 230 ryds (4.7 ypc) in Utah upset. Big W
(10/18) QB Criss replacing Smith (should be an upgrade)
(9/22) Off abysmal. Can't run/pass. Def can't overcome
(9/8) Close L @ OU. Run: D great, O bad, QB Smith good.
Houston Injury Report

Iowa State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	HOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#99
SuccessSuc	#119	#126
ExplosiveExp	#1	#51
PPAPPA	#57	#114
PowerPwr	#42	#55
SP+SP+	#44	#54
Pts POPPO	#83	#111
HavocHav	#35	#121

Iowa State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	HOU Def
Run GameRun	#51	#74
Run SuccessRSuc	#132	#104
Run ExplRExp	#5	#93
PPAExp	#126	#111
Run BlockR Blk	#121	-
OL YdsOLY	#133	#101
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#74
TackleTak	-	#73

Iowa State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	HOU Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#94
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#130
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#27
PPAExp	#25	#108
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#104	#132
F7 HavocF7	#44	#110
DB HavocDB	#44	#124

Houston on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	ISU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#128	#77
SuccessSuc	#97	#36
ExplosiveExp	#60	#88
PPAPPA	#104	#32
PowerPwr	#129	#37
SP+SP+	#118	#24
Pts POPPO	#100	#27
HavocHav	#41	#76

Houston Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#133	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#110	#46
Run ExplRExp	#82	#28
PPAExp	#116	#20
Run BlockR Blk	#101	-
OL YdsOLY	#96	#20
Stuff RateStuff	#116	#20
TackleTak	-	#114

Houston Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#128	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#75	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#86	#116
PPAExp	#77	#74
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#42	#129
F7 HavocF7	#57	#123
DB HavocDB	#20	#9

Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 90° - Wind: 13 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Iowa State 16.0 (43.0)
Iowa State won at Houston this year (20-0)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Houston in 2024 (20-0)

ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	272	457	60%	3505	25	9	7.7
Connor Moberly	5	10	50%	49	0	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carson Hansen	151	752	13	5.0	57
Abu Sama III	124	587	2	4.7	77
Jaylon Jackson (Tr)	93	388	2	4.2	51
Rocco Becht	98	318	8	3.2	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylin Noel	81	1194	8	14.7	75
Jayden Higgins	87	1183	9	13.6	39
Gabe Burkle	26	296	1	11.4	32
Benjamin Brahmer	10	179	1	17.9	39

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	84	3	0	0	4
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5
Kooper Ebel	69	6	1	1	0
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	32	5	4	7	1
Kenard Snyder (Tr)	8	2	2	0	0
Joey Petersen	46	6	2	9	0
Domonique Orange	24	5	1	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8
Myles Purchase	35	4	0	0	6
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5

HOU's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Donovan Smith	87	133	65%	867	4	8	6.5
Zeon Chriss	83	130	64%	824	4	8	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Re'Shaun Sanford II	94	444	1	4.7	38
Zeon Chriss	113	381	4	3.4	71
Stacy Sneed	60	308	1	5.1	65
J'Marion Burnette	43	182	0	4.2	54

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Stephon Johnson Jr.	32	402	2	12.6	44
Joseph Manjack	22	351	3	16.0	57
Mekhi Mews (Tr)	29	253	1	8.7	57
Maliq Carr (Tr)	19	186	1	9.8	23

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Shiel Wood (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Batton (Tr)	94	8	3	3	0
A.J. Haulcy	74	0	0	0	7
Jamal Morris	63	5	1	0	0
Kentrell Webb (Tr)	54	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keith Cooper Jr.	46	9	4	7	2
Michael Batton (Tr)	94	8	3	3	0
Brandon Mack	39	5	3	2	0
Anthony Holmes Jr.	35	9	3	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
A.J. Haulcy	74	0	0	7
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)	24	4	0	4
Ajani Carter	22	1	1	3