Miami at Florida - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#10)Miami Hurricanes at Florida Gators(#15)

Saturday, August 31st 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Miami -2.5 (54.5) (-142) Open: -2.5 | 54.5
Miami 41 - Florida: 17

Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (41 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Miami -4.5 (SP+ MIAMI -8)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 30 - FLA: 26 (56)
MIAMI Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MIAMI Travel: 286 miles

Gators (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (29 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MIAMI Players
FLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Miami at Florida	-2.5	54.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Miami vs Florida A&M	-46.5	55.5	W 56 - 9	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Miami vs Ball State	-36.5	55.5	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Miami at South Florida	-17.0	64.5	W 50 - 15	O	Y
Fri 9/27	Miami vs Virginia Tech	-17.5	55.5	W 38 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Miami at California	-10.0	54.0	W 39 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Miami at Louisville	-4.5	61.5	W 52 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Miami vs Florida State	-22.5	55.0	W 36 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/2	Miami vs Duke	-21.0	55.5	W 53 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Miami at Georgia Tech	-9.5	64.5	L 23 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Miami vs Wake Forest	-23.5	67.0	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Miami at Syracuse	-12.5	65.5	L 38 - 42	O	N
Sat 12/28	Miami vs Iowa State	-5.0	62.0	L 41 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Florida's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Florida vs Miami	+2.5	54.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/7	Florida vs Samford	-38.5	55.5	W 45 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/14	Florida vs Texas A&M	+4.5	47.0	L 20 - 33	O	N
Sat 9/21	Florida at Mississippi State	-6.5	58.0	W 45 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Florida vs UCF	+1.0	62.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Florida at Tennessee	+13.5	54.5	L 17 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Florida vs Kentucky	+2.5	42.5	W 48 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Florida vs Georgia	+14.5	52.5	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Florida at Texas	+24.5	48.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Florida vs LSU	+3.0	57.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Florida vs Ole Miss	+13.0	57.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida at Florida State	-17.5	45.5	W 31 - 11	U	Y
Fri 12/20	Florida vs Tulane	-10.0	50.5	W 33 - 8	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)	43.9	56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)	25.3	38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)	28.3	45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)	23.1	49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)		56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)		38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)		45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)		49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Offense	13	43.9	40.5	52.5%	4.96	1	25	497	165	332	5.5	43%	57%	56%	50%	10%	.4
FLA Defense	13	23.1	21	43.9%	3.12	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	39%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Defense	13	25.3	30.8	38.1%	4.02	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	38%	38%	18%	.16
FLA Offense	13	28.3	29.3	43%	4.17	1.4	19	389	164	226	4.6	54%	46%	45%	41%	16%	.18

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami	13	30:13	25.2	56%	65%	6.2	63.1	1	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29.7
Florida	13	28:35	19.2	39%	47%	5.9	54	1.4	1.9	6.4	3.1	1	30.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense	13	43% (114)	56% (1)	30.1	165.5	5.5	28 (25)	.32 (5)	3.59 (4)	90% (1)	6% (3)	0.95 (73)
FLA Defense	13	51% (71)	49% (118)	-	-	-	-	.13 (73)	3.06 (78)	67% (29)	11% (37)	0.84 (10)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense	13	45% (11)	38% (16)	-	-	-	-	.08 (49)	2.6 (16)	57% (4)	11% (43)	1.15 (125)
FLA Offense	13	54% (42)	45% (54)	35.4	163.7	4.6	26 (36)	.14 (63)	3.04 (66)	79% (27)	9% (56)	0.94 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense	13	57% (20)	50% (7)	23.9	35.1	331.6	9.5	13.9	38 (1)	7 (26)	.47 (6)	1.7 (26)	27% (5)	42% (1)	.69 (1)	4% (15)	2.3 (6)
FLA Defense	13	49% (67)	39% (44)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.16 (34)	1.6 (87)	31% (86)	37% (124)	.42 (108)	7% (43)	2 (58)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense	13	55% (125)	38% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.23 (66)	1.7 (113)	36% (9)	36% (123)	.45 (115)	7% (34)	2.1 (84)
FLA Offense	13	46% (91)	41% (82)	16	26.1	225.7	8.7	14.1	18 (68)	14 (115)	.25 (73)	1.6 (48)	31% (54)	28% (105)	.22 (107)	7% (90)	1.8 (118)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 19.13 #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
2024 Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 19.13 Florida: 15.705

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 21.6 Florida: 13.8

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 15.705 #19
Florida's Offense Rating: 21.48 #52
Florida's Defense Rating: 7.04 #44
2024 Talent Rating: 930.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 46 #11
Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8 #20
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #37
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Miami 30
Florida 26

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami 29
Florida 26

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
Miami 32
Florida 29

Total Points: 61

Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.3
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Miami	26	Florida	7	Miami -8.5	Miami	51.5	Under
2024	08/31	Florida	17	Miami	41	Miami -2.5	Miami	54.5	Over
2019	08/24	Florida	24	Miami	20	Florida -7	Miami	46.0	Under
2013	09/07	Miami	21	Florida	16	Florida -2	Miami	0
2008	09/06	Florida	26	Miami	3
2004	12/31	Florida	10	Miami	27
2003	09/06	Miami	38	Florida	33
2002	09/07	Florida	16	Miami	41
2000	01/01	Miami	37	Florida	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida	2	0	1 Overs
Miami	7	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 3	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 6	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1

(#8) MIAMI at (#19) FLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIAMI	FLA
Power RatePwr	#8	#19
SP+SP+	#10	#20
Perf GradeGrade	#3	#29
OffenseOff	#3	#25
DefenseDef	#14	#63
Spec TeamsST	#97	#50
TalentTal	#12	#15
Blue ChipsBC%	#13	#11

Miami on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	FLA Def
Perf GradePerf	#3	#63
SuccessSuc	#1	#95
ExplosiveExp	#22	#32
PPAPPA	#2	#53
PowerPwr	#1	#44
SP+SP+	#1	#23
Pts POPPO	#2	#14
HavocHav	#4	#36

Miami Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#2	#18
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#118
Run ExplRExp	#73	#10
PPAExp	#5	#73
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#78
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#84
TackleTak	-	#66

Miami Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#7	#44
Pass ExplPExl	#26	#87
PPAExp	#6	#34
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#27	#55
F7 HavocF7	#3	#37
DB HavocDB	#15	#43

Florida on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	MIAMI Def
Perf GradePerf	#25	#14
SuccessSuc	#64	#26
ExplosiveExp	#93	#130
PPAPPA	#72	#69
PowerPwr	#52	#52
SP+SP+	#37	#51
Pts POPPO	#46	#91
HavocHav	#68	#39

Florida Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	MIAMI Def
Run GameRun	#79	#9
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#16
Run ExplRExp	#82	#125
PPAExp	#63	#49
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	#66	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#77	#7
TackleTak	-	#99

Florida Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FLA Off	MIAMI Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#59
Pass SuccessPSuc	#82	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#48	#113
PPAExp	#73	#66
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#18	#14
F7 HavocF7	#56	#43
DB HavocDB	#90	#34

Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 89° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Miami 2.5 (54.5)
Miami won at Florida this year (41-17)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Florida last year (41-17)

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cameron Ward	305	454	67%	4313	39	7	9.5
Emory Williams	16	26	62%	187	1	1	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)	159	1002	10	6.3	75
Mark Fletcher Jr.	112	607	9	5.4	30
Jordan Lyle	54	400	4	7.4	91
Cameron Ward	60	204	4	3.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Restrepo	69	1127	11	16.3	77
Jacolby George	53	752	8	14.2	49
Isaiah Horton	56	616	5	11.0	30
Elijah Arroyo	35	590	7	16.9	74

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Lance Guidry (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Francisco Mauigoa	96	11	2	5	5
Wesley Bissainthe	59	5	2	1	1
Jaden Harris	40	4	2	0	2
Mishael Powell (Tr)	38	2	1	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Akheem Mesidor	32	9	6	2	0
Tyler Baron (Tr)	38	11	6	6	0
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)	30	8	6	3	1
Rueben Bain Jr.	23	6	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daryl Porter Jr.	28	0	0	2	7
OJ Frederique Jr.	23	1	0	0	6
Mishael Powell (Tr)	38	2	1	1	6

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Lagway	115	192	60%	1915	12	9	10.0
Graham Mertz	72	94	77%	791	6	2	8.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jadan Baugh	133	673	7	5.1	55
Montrell Johnson	100	593	6	5.9	71
Ja'Kobi Jackson	93	500	7	5.4	20
D.J. Lagway	51	101	0	2.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijhah Badger (Tr)	39	806	4	20.7	77
Chimere Dike (Tr)	42	783	2	18.6	44
Eugene Wilson	19	266	1	14.0	85
Hayden Hansen	15	207	1	13.8	40

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)	68	1	0	0	5
Shemar James	64	4	2	2	3
Jack Pyburn	60	4	1	0	0
Jordan Castell	55	1	0	0	9

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyreak Sapp	46	13	7	5	0
George Gumbs	36	9	6	4	2
Caleb Banks	21	7	5	6	1
Jaden Robinson	52	4	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jordan Castell	55	1	0	9
Trikweze Bridges (Tr)	68	1	0	5
Jason Marshall Jr.	20	2	3	4