UCF at Iowa State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Iowa State -13 (49.5) (-575) Open: -10.0
Iowa State 38 - UCF: 35 (Big 12)

Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ISU is playing their 5th straight game
UCF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Iowa State -12 (SP+ ISU -8)
Projected Score: UCF: 19 - ISU: 31 (49)
ISU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
UCF Travel: 1159 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Cyclones (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (53 - 48)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (32 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
ISU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UCF vs New Hampshire	-38.5	58.5	W 57 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	UCF vs Sam Houston	-21.5	53.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UCF at TCU	+1.5	61.5	W 35 - 34	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UCF vs Colorado	-12.5	60.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/5	UCF at Florida	-1.0	62.0	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/12	UCF vs Cincinnati	-2.0	58.0	L 13 - 19	U	N
Sat 10/19	UCF at Iowa State	+13.0	49.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UCF vs BYU	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/2	UCF vs Arizona	-6.5	55.0	W 56 - 12	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UCF at Arizona State	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UCF at West Virginia	-3.0	60.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Fri 11/29	UCF vs Utah	-9.5	45.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Iowa State vs North Dakota	-30.5	51.5	W 21 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/7	Iowa State at Iowa	+3.0	35.0	W 20 - 19	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Iowa State vs Arkansas State	-20.5	52.0	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Iowa State at Houston	-16.0	43.0	W 20 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Iowa State vs Baylor	-13.0	45.0	W 43 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Iowa State at West Virginia	-3.0	54.0	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Iowa State vs UCF	-13.0	49.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Iowa State vs Texas Tech	-13.5	55.0	L 22 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/9	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	50.5	L 36 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/16	Iowa State vs Cincinnati	-7.0	52.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Iowa State at Utah	-6.5	42.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/30	Iowa State vs Kansas State	-2.5	51.5	W 29 - 21	U	Y
Sat 12/7	Iowa State vs Arizona State	-1.5	51.5	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/28	Iowa State vs Miami	+5.0	62.0	W 42 - 41	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#16 (.31)	45% (41)	24.3	47% (27)	3.28 (36)	228	43% (57)	259	3.76 (80)	#58 (.16)	47% (125)	23.6	51% (128)	43% (80)	3.79 (69)	50.1	1.4	1.2
ISU	#57 (.21)	37% (119)	27.4	32% (132)	2.34 (133)	120	41% (72)	245	3.72 (83)	#32 (.13)	39% (36)	20.2	41% (46)	39% (35)	3.35 (27)	43.5	0.8	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ISU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	13	24.3	12.8	44.9%	3.76	1.4	23	487	228	259	5.6	56%	43%	47%	43%	15%	.31
ISU Defense	13	20.2	18.8	39.2%	3.35	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	41%	39%	16%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	13	23.6	34.6	46.6%	3.79	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	51%	43%	12%	.16
ISU Offense	13	27.4	32.3	36.8%	3.72	0.8	16	365	120	245	4.1	48%	52%	32%	41%	14%	.21

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	13	28:52	23.1	49%	57%	6.1	50.1	1.4	1.2	4.2	1.7	0	26.6
Iowa State	13	29:09	16.3	39%	63%	4.8	43.5	0.8	1.5	4.8	1.6	1	30.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	13	56% (24)	47% (27)	40.7	228.2	5.6	28 (25)	.24 (19)	3.28 (36)	71% (93)	9% (48)	1.14 (10)
ISU Defense	13	48% (43)	41% (46)	-	-	-	-	.05 (20)	2.77 (20)	68% (38)	8% (123)	0.9 (28)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	13	56% (121)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.23 (110)	3.39 (117)	81% (111)	7% (127)	0.99 (62)
ISU Offense	13	48% (87)	32% (132)	29.4	119.9	4.1	16 (89)	.01 (126)	2.34 (133)	59% (130)	9% (44)	1.18 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	13	43% (111)	43% (57)	17.6	28.2	258.8	9.2	14.7	24 (41)	11 (68)	.48 (12)	1.9 (5)	30% (30)	37% (15)	.52 (17)	6% (51)	2.2 (27)
ISU Defense	13	50% (84)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.28 (74)	1.7 (116)	34% (41)	28% (35)	.23 (24)	8% (9)	2 (60)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	13	43% (11)	43% (80)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.17 (17)	1.4 (4)	29% (120)	34% (113)	.23 (33)	5% (120)	1.7 (1)
ISU Offense	13	52% (44)	41% (72)	18.5	29.3	245	8.4	13.2	23 (51)	8 (30)	.42 (25)	1.8 (11)	37% (132)	30% (76)	.26 (91)	5% (44)	2 (100)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 0.98 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 0.98 Iowa State: 13.685

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 2.8 Iowa State: 10.3

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 13.685 #23
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 22.95 #42
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 6.20 #37
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Iowa State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Iowa State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #28
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #44
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 31
UCF 19

Projected Total Points: 49

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Iowa State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Iowa State	38	UCF	35	Iowa State -13	UCF	49.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa State	1	0	1 Overs
UCF	0	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#58) UCF at (#23) ISU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	ISU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#58	#23
SP+SP+	#61	#28
Perf GradeGrade	#54	#81
OffenseOff	#52	#81
DefenseDef	#47	#77
Spec TeamsST	#117	#73
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#35	#97

UCF Notes(12/17) Hired Alex Grinch as DC? Why?
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost
(10/6) B2B L's (UF). Rgame shut down, Pass O/D awful
UCF Injury Report

Iowa State Notes(11/30) Even w/ KSU, forced 2 TOs, Becht 13/35 for 137?
(11/23) OG'd Utah 405-224. Beat K St = B12 title game
(11/18) Bounce back vs Cincy, Off better, Pass D great
(11/13) Run Def mauled by KU, Rgame abysmal, all Becht
(11/2) Bad L vs T.T., Outgained TT, but TOs, 3rd down bad
(10/22) Def stop rate is 77%, #6 in CFB but bad Offs so far
(10/13) Even w/ WVU, clean game, 9-14 3rd down in W
(10/11) LB's are really beat up going into WVU game
(9/19) WR Noel in top 5 vs M2M coverage. Higgins good #2
(9/8) Great comeback vs Iowa, Becht good, Rgame awful
(9/4) Starting MLB Bacon out indefinitely, leg injury
(9/1) Line play awful vs N Dak, 86 yds rush vs 174 gave up
Iowa State Injury Report

UCF on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	ISU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#52	#77
SuccessSuc	#41	#36
ExplosiveExp	#3	#88
PPAPPA	#16	#32
PowerPwr	#64	#37
SP+SP+	#55	#24
Pts POPPO	#80	#27
HavocHav	#47	#76

UCF Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#27	#46
Run ExplRExp	#10	#28
PPAExp	#19	#20
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#36	#20
Stuff RateStuff	#102	#20
TackleTak	-	#114

UCF Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#118	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#116
PPAExp	#12	#74
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#17	#129
F7 HavocF7	#48	#123
DB HavocDB	#51	#9

Iowa State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	UCF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#47
SuccessSuc	#119	#125
ExplosiveExp	#1	#7
PPAPPA	#57	#58
PowerPwr	#42	#67
SP+SP+	#44	#61
Pts POPPO	#83	#69
HavocHav	#35	#128

Iowa State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#51	#38
Run SuccessRSuc	#132	#128
Run ExplRExp	#5	#62
PPAExp	#126	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#121	-
OL YdsOLY	#133	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#78
TackleTak	-	#55

Iowa State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ISU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#80
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#4
PPAExp	#25	#17
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#104	#65
F7 HavocF7	#44	#127
DB HavocDB	#44	#120

Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

UCF 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 66° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 8
Iowa State -13.0 (49.5)
Iowa State won vs UCF this year (38-35)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat UCF in 2024 (38-35)

UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Rizk	73	118	62%	915	5	2	7.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)	64	108	59%	1012	7	4	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	232	1577	22	6.8	80
Jacurri Brown (Tr)	53	401	4	7.6	67
Myles Montgomery (Tr)	51	293	3	5.7	25
Peny Boone (Tr)	34	208	2	6.1	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Hudson	47	770	4	16.4	53
Randy Pittman	32	416	2	13.0	48
Jacoby Jones (Tr)	22	327	2	14.9	40
RJ Harvey	20	267	3	13.4	75

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Ted Roof (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Barr	72	3	0	2	2
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)	68	6	0	3	2
Quadric Bullard	61	3	1	1	2
Deshawn Pace (Tr)	61	4	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)	53	10	6	1	1
Malachi Lawrence	15	6	5	4	1
Daylan Dotson (Tr)	31	10	4	5	1
Ricky Barber	34	5	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Antoine Jackson	13	1	0	3
Braeden Marshall	22	3	0	3
Ethan Barr	72	3	2	2

ISU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	272	457	60%	3505	25	9	7.7
Connor Moberly	5	10	50%	49	0	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carson Hansen	151	752	13	5.0	57
Abu Sama III	124	587	2	4.7	77
Jaylon Jackson (Tr)	93	388	2	4.2	51
Rocco Becht	98	318	8	3.2	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylin Noel	81	1194	8	14.7	75
Jayden Higgins	87	1183	9	13.6	39
Gabe Burkle	26	296	1	11.4	32
Benjamin Brahmer	10	179	1	17.9	39

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	84	3	0	0	4
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5
Kooper Ebel	69	6	1	1	0
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	32	5	4	7	1
Kenard Snyder (Tr)	8	2	2	0	0
Joey Petersen	46	6	2	9	0
Domonique Orange	24	5	1	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jeremiah Cooper	48	1	0	0	8
Myles Purchase	35	4	0	0	6
Malik Verdon	75	4	1	1	5