UCF at Iowa State - 2024 Matchup Preview
UCF logo UCF Knights at Iowa State CyclonesIowa State logo
Saturday, October 19th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Iowa State -13 (49.5) (-575)  Open: -10.0
Iowa State 38 - UCF: 35  (Big 12)

 
Knights (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (24 - 16)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
ISU is playing their 5th straight game
UCF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Iowa State -12   (SP+ ISU -8)

Projected Score: UCF: 20 - ISU: 32 (56)
ISU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
UCF Travel: 1159 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Cyclones (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (53 - 48)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (34 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
 
UCF's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 UCF vs New Hampshire-38.558.5W 57 - 3OY
Sat 9/7 UCF vs Sam Houston-21.553.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 9/14 UCF at TCU+1.561.5W 35 - 34OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 UCF vs Colorado-12.560.5L 21 - 48ON
Sat 10/5 UCF at Florida-1.062.0L 13 - 24UN
Sat 10/12 UCF vs Cincinnati-2.058.0L 13 - 19UN
Sat 10/19 UCF at Iowa State+13.049.5L 35 - 38OY
Sat 10/26 UCF vs BYU-2.553.5L 24 - 37ON
Sat 11/2 UCF vs Arizona-6.555.0W 56 - 12OY
Sat 11/9 UCF at Arizona State+2.555.5L 31 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 UCF at West Virginia-3.060.0L 21 - 31UN
Fri 11/29 UCF vs Utah-9.545.5L 14 - 28UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 7, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.551.5W 21 - 3UN
Sat 9/7 Iowa State at Iowa+3.035.0W 20 - 19OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.552.0W 52 - 7OY
Sat 9/28 Iowa State at Houston-16.043.0W 20 - 0UY
Sat 10/5 Iowa State vs Baylor-13.045.0W 43 - 21OY
Sat 10/12 Iowa State at West Virginia-3.054.0W 28 - 16UY
Sat 10/19 Iowa State vs UCF-13.049.5W 38 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.555.0L 22 - 23UN
Sat 11/9 Iowa State vs Kansas-2.550.5L 36 - 45ON
Sat 11/16 Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.052.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 11/23 Iowa State at Utah-6.542.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 11/30 Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.551.5W 29 - 21UY
Sat 12/7 Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.551.5L 19 - 45ON
Sat 12/28 Iowa State vs Miami+5.062.0W 42 - 41OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 6, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#16 (.31)45% (41)30.447% (27)3.28 (36)22843% (57)2593.76 (80)#58 (.16)47% (125)26.951% (128)43% (80)3.79 (69)50.11.41.2
ISU#57 (.21)37% (119)31.132% (132)2.34 (133)12041% (72)2453.72 (83)#32 (.13)39% (36)22.941% (46)39% (35)3.35 (27)43.50.81.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ISU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense1330.42744.9%3.761.4234872282595.656%43%47%43%15%.31
ISU Defense1322.918.139.2%3.351.5 - - - - - 48%50%41%39%16%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense1326.932.446.6%3.791.2 - - - - - 56%43%51%43%12%.16
ISU Offense1331.134.136.8%3.720.8163651202454.148%52%32%41%14%.21

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF1328:5223.149%57%6.150.11.41.24.21.7026.6
Iowa State1329:0916.339%63%4.843.50.81.54.81.6130.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense1356% (24)47% (27)40.7228.25.628 (25).24 (19)3.28 (36)71% (93)9% (48)1.14 (10)
ISU Defense1348% (43)41% (46) - - - - .05 (20)2.77 (20)68% (38)8% (123)0.9 (28)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense1356% (121)51% (128) - - - - .23 (110)3.39 (117)81% (111)7% (127)0.99 (62)
ISU Offense1348% (87)32% (132)29.4119.94.116 (89).01 (126)2.34 (133)59% (130)9% (44)1.18 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense1343% (111)43% (57)17.628.2258.89.214.724 (41)11 (68).48 (12)1.9 (5)30% (30)37% (15).52 (17)6% (51)2.2 (27)
ISU Defense1350% (84)39% (35) - - - - - - 16 (9).28 (74)1.7 (116)34% (41)28% (35).23 (24)8% (9)2 (60)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense1343% (11)43% (80) - - - - - - 12 (37).17 (17)1.4 (4)29% (120)34% (113).23 (33)5% (120)1.7 (1)
ISU Offense1352% (44)41% (72)18.529.32458.413.223 (51)8 (30).42 (25)1.8 (11)37% (132)30% (76).26 (91)5% (44)2 (100)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 0.98 #58
UCF's Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
UCF's Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
2024 Talent Rating: 796.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
UCF's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
UCF's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 0.98   Iowa State: 13.685

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 2.8   Iowa State: 10.3




Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 13.685 #23
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 22.95 #42
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 6.20 #37
2024 Talent Rating: 676.00 #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Iowa State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Iowa State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #28
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #44
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 719.13
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.4

UCF's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa State 32
UCF 20


Projected Total Points: 56
Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.1

Iowa State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Iowa State38UCF35Iowa StateIowa State -13UCF49.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa State101 Overs
UCF010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#58) UCF Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.98 #58
Offense Rating: 20.19 #64
Defense Rating: 9.20 #67
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #55
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #61
Talent Rating: 796.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 41%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.37 PPO
Great Run Def Success 37%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


UCF Notes
(12/7) Hired HC Scott Frost again (Rams analyst '24)
(12/2) HC Malzahn leaving for FSU OC job. Yikes
(11/23) Even w/ WVU, R Def faded, bad 3rd/4th cost
(11/13) WTF L to ASU, OG's them by 150, Off good
(11/13) ST's disaster vs ASU, blk punt TD, miss FG
(11/2) Found a QB, Rizk great vs Az, Rgame great TW
(10/28) DC Roof fired, co-dc Williams takes over
(10/21) QB J. Brown starter from ISU game forward
(10/14) Benched KJ for Jacurri Brown, was ok/mobile in L
(10/12) Even w/ Cincy, OG'd them but Rzone issues cost
UCF     Ratings Matchup     Iowa State
Power #58
#23
Off #64
#42
Def #67
#37
Talent #31
#61
SP+ #61
#28
SP+ Off #55
#44
SP+ Def #61
#24

Rematch from Week 8
Iowa State -13.0 (49.5)
Iowa State won vs UCF this year (38-35)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat UCF last year (38-35)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 66° - Wind: 11 mph


Team Information
Injuries: UCF | ISU
Depth Chart: UCF | ISU
Rosters: UCF | ISU
(#23) Iowa State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 13.685 #23
Offense Rating: 22.95 #42
Defense Rating: 6.20 #37
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #28
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.2 #24
Talent Rating: 676.00 #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.23 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Good in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Iowa State Notes
(11/23) OG'd Utah 405-224. Beat K St = B12 title game
(11/18) Bounce back vs Cincy, Off better, Pass D great
(11/13) Run Def mauled by KU, Rgame abysmal, all Becht
(11/2) Bad L vs T.T., Outgained TT, but TOs, 3rd down bad
(10/22) Def stop rate is 77%, #6 in CFB but bad Offs so far
(10/13) Even w/ WVU, clean game, 9-14 3rd down in W
(10/11) LB's are really beat up going into WVU game
(9/19) WR Noel in top 5 vs M2M coverage. Higgins good #2
(9/8) Great comeback vs Iowa, Becht good, Rgame awful
(9/4) Starting MLB Bacon out indefinitely, leg injury


  
UCF's OC Tim Harris Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dylan Rizk7311862%915527.8
KJ Jefferson (Tr)6410859%1012749.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacurri Brown (Tr)5340147.667
Myles Montgomery (Tr)5129335.725
Peny Boone (Tr)3420826.159
KJ Jefferson (Tr)6119323.223
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Randy Pittman32416213.048
Jacoby Jones (Tr)22327214.940
Chauncey Magwood5102020.434
Xavier Townsend106916.922

View UCF's Full Roster
UCF's DC Addison Williams
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Barr723022
Xe'Ree Alexander (Tr)686032
Deshawn Pace (Tr)614001
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)5310611
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nyjalik Kelly (Tr)5310611
Malachi Lawrence156541
Daylan Dotson (Tr)3110451
Lee Hunter4410160
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antoine Jackson131003
Braeden Marshall223003
Ethan Barr723022

Iowa State's OC Taylor Mouser
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht27245760%35052597.7
Connor Moberly51050%49014.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen151752135.057
Abu Sama III12458724.777
Jaylon Jackson (Tr)9338824.251
Rocco Becht9831883.232
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Gabe Burkle26296111.432
Benjamin Brahmer10179117.939
Carson Brown11141112.844
Eli Green (Tr)10115011.534

View Iowa State's Full Roster
Iowa State's DC Jon Heacock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kooper Ebel696110
Jeremiah Cooper481008
Jontez Williams462005
Jacob Ellis415120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kenard Snyder (Tr)82200
Jack Sadowsky294111
Marcus Neal181100
Ikenna Ezeogu192110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Cooper481008
Jontez Williams462005
Beau Goodwin243012