Ohio State at Oregon - 2024 Matchup Preview

Wednesday, January 1st 2025 (5:00 PM EST)
Ohio State -2.5 (55.5) (0) Open: -2.0 | 54.5
Ohio State 41 - Oregon: 21 (CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential)

Buckeyes (14 - 2) (10 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ryan Day (56 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (31 - 8 on Road)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Ohio State -6 (SP+ OSU -5)
Projected Score: OSU: 29 - ORE: 23 (52)
OSU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
OSU Travel: 1966 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
OSU Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ohio State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ohio State vs Akron	-50.5	58.5	W 52 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/7	Ohio State vs Western Michigan	-37.5	54.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Ohio State vs Marshall	-40.0	57.0	W 49 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/28	Ohio State at Michigan State	-23.5	48.5	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Ohio State vs Iowa	-17.0	46.0	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Ohio State at Oregon	-3.5	54.5	L 31 - 32	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Ohio State vs Nebraska	-25.0	48.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	Ohio State at Penn State	-3.0	47.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Ohio State vs Purdue	-37.5	55.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Ohio State vs Northwestern	-28.0	43.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/23	Ohio State vs Indiana	-10.5	52.5	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Ohio State vs Michigan	-20.5	41.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Sat 12/21	Ohio State vs Tennessee	-7.5	47.0	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Ohio State vs Oregon	-2.5	55.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y
Fri 1/10	Ohio State vs Texas	-6.5	51.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Mon 1/20	Ohio State vs Notre Dame	-8.5	45.5	W 34 - 23	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule

Oregon's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon vs Idaho	-36.5
Sat 9/7	Oregon vs Boise State	-17.5	60.5	W 37 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/14	Oregon at Oregon State	-16.0	50.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Oregon at UCLA	-23.5	54.5	W 34 - 13	U	N
Fri 10/4	Oregon vs Michigan State	-22.5	53.0	W 31 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon vs Ohio State	+3.5	54.5	W 32 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Oregon at Purdue	-30.0	61.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Oregon vs Illinois	-22.5	54.0	W 38 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Oregon at Michigan	-14.5	45.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Oregon vs Maryland	-24.0	58.0	W 39 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon at Wisconsin	-13.5	49.5	W 16 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30	Oregon vs Washington	-17.5	50.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Oregon vs Penn State	-3.5	51.5	W 45 - 37	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Oregon vs Ohio State	+2.5	55.5	L 21 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OSU	#14 (.31)	47% (22)	33.4	45% (49)	3.18 (57)	139	49% (12)	269	4.21 (36)	#5 (.03)	36% (11)	9.3	35% (12)	37% (17)	2.69 (5)	44.5	1	0.8
ORE	#2 (.49)	57% (1)	36.9	57% (2)	3.69 (4)	171	57% (1)	318	5.11 (1)	#19 (.1)	38% (30)	17.9	39% (35)	39% (27)	3.33 (24)	59.1	0.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OSU Offense	13	33.4	30.6	46.6%	4.21	1	21	408	139	269	4.2	48%	51%	45%	49%	14%	.31
ORE Defense	14	17.9	16.8	38.4%	3.33	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	39%	39%	17%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OSU Defense	13	9.3	8.2	35.8%	2.69	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	35%	37%	15%	.03
ORE Offense	14	36.9	43.1	56.9%	5.11	0.5	24	490	171	318	5.9	44%	56%	57%	57%	9%	.49

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ohio State	13	29:25	20.9	43%	56%	5.7	44.5	1	0.8	4.8	1.7	3	28.8
Oregon	14	28:31	24.4	51%	74%	6.5	59.1	0.5	1.1	4.8	2.4	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OSU Offense	13	48% (83)	45% (49)	33.2	138.8	4.2	20 (61)	.15 (72)	3.18 (57)	78% (34)	7% (14)	0.84 (126)
ORE Defense	14	39% (2)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	.08 (32)	3.08 (60)	55% (6)	9% (96)	0.97 (54)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OSU Defense	13	51% (85)	35% (12)	-	-	-	-	.04 (18)	3.02 (52)	58% (7)	9% (103)	0.98 (56)
ORE Offense	14	44% (107)	57% (2)	29.1	171.4	5.9	32 (10)	.37 (2)	3.69 (4)	78% (32)	6% (3)	1.05 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OSU Offense	13	51% (49)	49% (12)	19.6	30.8	269.1	8.8	13.7	26 (31)	7 (21)	.5 (10)	1.7 (44)	28% (12)	34% (33)	.48 (23)	7% (95)	2 (99)
ORE Defense	14	59% (132)	39% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.16 (16)	1.5 (45)	32% (70)	30% (60)	.33 (78)	8% (13)	2 (45)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OSU Defense	13	49% (62)	37% (17)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.04 (1)	1.4 (2)	33% (51)	26% (21)	.15 (6)	7% (47)	1.8 (13)
ORE Offense	14	56% (22)	57% (1)	26	33.7	318.3	9.4	12.2	44 (1)	5 (6)	.59 (3)	1.5 (112)	24% (3)	43% (3)	.73 (2)	3% (4)	2 (70)

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 32.14 #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 29.14 #5
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -3.55 #1
2024 Talent Rating: 656.00 #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 75% #2
Ohio State's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 31.2 #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #3
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.2 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 32.14 Oregon: 25.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 31.2 Oregon: 26.0

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 25.7 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
2024 Talent Rating: 619.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 8.2

Ohio State's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 29
Oregon 23

Projected Total Points: 52

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Oregon	32	Ohio State	31	Ohio State -3.5	Oregon	54.5	Over
2024	01/01	Oregon	21	Ohio State	41	Ohio State -2.5	Ohio State	55.5	Over
2021	09/11	Ohio State	28	Oregon	35	Ohio State -14.5	Oregon	65.0	Under
2014	01/12	Ohio State	42	Oregon	20	Oregon -5.5	Ohio State	72.0	Under
2009	01/01	Oregon	17	Ohio State	26

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	2	2	2 Overs
Ohio State	3	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 3	2 - 2	0 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 2	2 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 0

Ohio State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP Nat'l Title	Ohio State vs Notre Dame	-8.5	45.5	W 34 - 23
2024	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Texas	-6.5	51.5	W 28 - 14
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Ohio State vs Oregon	-2.5	55.5	W 41 - 21
2024	CFP 1st Round	Ohio State vs Tennessee	-7.5	47.0	W 42 - 17
2023	Cotton Bowl	Ohio State vs Missouri	-4.0	51.0	L 3 - 14
2022	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Georgia	+5.5	62.0	L 41 - 42
2021	Rose Bowl	Ohio State vs Utah	-4.5	64.5	W 48 - 45
2020	CFP Nat'l Title	Ohio State vs Alabama	+9.5	75.0	L 24 - 52
2020	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Clemson	+7.5	66.5	W 49 - 28
2019	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Clemson	+3.0	63.5	L 23 - 29
2018	Rose Bowl	Ohio State vs Washington	-5.5	55.5	W 28 - 23

Oregon Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP Quarterfinal	Oregon vs Ohio State	+2.5	55.5	L 21 - 41
2023	Fiesta Bowl	Oregon vs Liberty	-18.5	71.5	W 45 - 6
2022	Holiday Bowl	Oregon vs North Carolina	-13.0	76.0	W 28 - 27
2021	Alamo Bowl	Oregon vs Oklahoma	+7.0	64.0	L 32 - 47
2020	Fiesta Bowl	Oregon vs Iowa State	+4.5	57.5	L 17 - 34
2019	Rose Bowl	Oregon vs Wisconsin	+3.0	53.0	W 28 - 27
2018	N/A	Oregon vs Michigan State	+1.0	47.0	W 7 - 6

(#1) OSU at (#2) ORE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OSU	ORE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#1	#2
SP+SP+	#1	#3
Perf GradeGrade	#2	#4
OffenseOff	#5	#9
DefenseDef	#2	#4
Spec TeamsST	#11	#26
TalentTal	#3	#5
Blue ChipsBC%	#2	#8

Ohio State Notes(12/17) QB's Noland (Fr) & Brown (Jr) left via portal
(12/1) Off awful, Rgame abysmal, Howard 2 Int in UM L
(12/1) 20 mil roster, still can't beat U. Coaching fail
(11/24) Mauled IU, D held to 153 yds. Off was OK
(11/19) Starting C McLaughlin out for season (ACL)
(11/18) Flat start vs NW, Howard OK, Rgame just OK
(11/3) OL was great considering injuries. Rgame beat PSU
(11/2) Def owned Penn St. Howard tough, Rgame alive
(10/26) Backup LT went down in Nebraska game
(10/22) Starting LT Simmons out for season
(10/12) Def torched by Oregon. Judkins/Downs vanished
(10/6) B2B drubbings (MSU/Iowa). Top #s, Rzone esp
Ohio State Injury Report

Oregon Notes(11/18) Rgame bad vs Wisc, Gabriel OK, missed WR Tez
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart
(7/30) DL & DB's both PFF top 10, but 4/5 DBs are portals.
Oregon Injury Report

Ohio State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	ORE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#5	#4
SuccessSuc	#22	#30
ExplosiveExp	#78	#78
PPAPPA	#14	#19
PowerPwr	#5	#19
SP+SP+	#3	#14
Pts POPPO	#36	#24
HavocHav	#29	#52

Ohio State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#19	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	#49	#35
Run ExplRExp	#126	#54
PPAExp	#72	#32
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#57	#60
Stuff RateStuff	#52	#75
TackleTak	-	#8

Ohio State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#18	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	#12	#27
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#45
PPAExp	#10	#16
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#97	#7
F7 HavocF7	#14	#96
DB HavocDB	#95	#13

Oregon on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	OSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#9	#2
SuccessSuc	#1	#11
ExplosiveExp	#67	#11
PPAPPA	#2	#5
PowerPwr	#4	#1
SP+SP+	#2	#1
Pts POPPO	#1	#5
HavocHav	#2	#85

Oregon Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#11	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#2	#12
Run ExplRExp	#37	#56
PPAExp	#2	#18
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#52
Stuff RateStuff	#32	#86
TackleTak	-	#12

Oregon Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#17
Pass ExplPExl	#112	#2
PPAExp	#3	#1
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#21	#18
F7 HavocF7	#3	#103
DB HavocDB	#4	#47

Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'24 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rose Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Ohio State 2.5 (55.5)
Ohio State won at Oregon this year (41-21)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Oregon in 2024 (41-21)

OSU's OC Chip Kelly (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Howard (Tr)	309	423	73%	4010	35	10	9.5
Devin Brown	11	20	55%	114	1	0	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinshon Judkins (Tr)	194	1060	14	5.5	86
TreVeyon Henderson	144	1016	10	7.1	66
Will Howard (Tr)	105	226	7	2.2	19
James Peoples	49	197	2	4.0	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Smith	76	1315	15	17.3	70
Emeka Egbuka	81	1011	10	12.5	68
Carnell Tate	52	733	4	14.1	40
TreVeyon Henderson	27	284	1	10.5	75

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Jim Knowles (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cody Simon	112	13	7	0	7
Sonny Styles	100	11	6	0	5
Caleb Downs (Tr)	81	8	1	1	6
Lathan Ransom	75	9	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.T. Tuimoloau	61	22	13	5	3
Jack Sawyer	59	9	9	8	6
Cody Simon	112	13	7	0	7
Sonny Styles	100	11	6	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davison Igbinosun	45	2	0	0	9
Jordan Hancock	48	2	1	1	8
Cody Simon	112	13	7	0	7

ORE's OC Junior Adams (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	326	447	73%	3857	30	6	8.6
Dante Moore (Tr)	7	8	88%	49	0	0	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan James	233	1267	15	5.4	41
Noah Whittington	118	540	6	4.6	28
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)	75	149	7	2.0	54
Da'Jaun Riggs	11	82	1	7.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tez Johnson	83	898	10	10.8	52
Traeshon Holden	45	718	5	16.0	59
Evan Stewart (Tr)	48	613	5	12.8	69
Terrance Ferguson	43	591	3	13.7	62

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	87	7	2	0	4
Tysheem Johnson	58	3	0	0	0
Kobe Savage (Tr)	57	3	0	0	1
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matayo Uiagalelei	37	11	9	6	1
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5
Teitum Tuioti	53	8	6	3	1
Derrick Harmon (Tr)	43	11	5	10	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)	38	1	0	0	10
Dontae Manning	18	1	0	0	6
Jordan Burch	29	11	9	4	5