Ohio at Ohio State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Ohio State -28.0 (49.0) (-20000) Open: -33.5 | 53.5
Ohio State 37 - Ohio: 9

Bobcats (6 - 3) (5 - 3 - 1)
Coach Brian Smith (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (21 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 4.5 (#49)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)

OSU 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Ohio State -36 (SP+ OSU -36)
Projected Score: OHIO: 7 - OSU: 43 (49)
OSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
OHIO Travel: 68 miles

Buckeyes (9 - 0) (7 - 1 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 36 - 7 (40 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.8 - 0.2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
OHIO Players
OSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ohio's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Ohio at Rutgers	+11.5	46.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Ohio vs West Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Ohio at Ohio State	+28.0	49.0	L 9 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Ohio vs Gardner-Webb	-30.5	55.0	W 52 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/27	Ohio vs Bowling Green	-7.5	49.5	W 35 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Ohio at Ball State	-14.0	52.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Ohio vs Northern Illinois	-10.5	41.5	W 48 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Ohio at Eastern Michigan	-11.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	-2.5	51.5	W 24 - 20	U	Y
Tue 11/11	Ohio at Western Michigan	+1
Tue 11/18	Ohio vs Massachusetts	-25
Fri 11/28	Ohio at Buffalo	+1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule

Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Ohio State vs Texas	-1.5	46.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Ohio State vs Grambling	-55.5	62.5	W 70 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Ohio State vs Ohio	-28.0	49.0	W 37 - 9	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Ohio State at Washington	-9.5	52.5	W 24 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Ohio State vs Minnesota	-23.5	42.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Ohio State at Illinois	-15.5	51.5	W 34 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Ohio State at Wisconsin	-24.5	41.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Ohio State vs Penn State	-17.5	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Ohio State at Purdue	-29.5	49.5	W 34 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/15	Ohio State vs UCLA	-30.5
Sat 11/22	Ohio State vs Rutgers	-30.5
Sat 11/29	Ohio State at Michigan	-8.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO	#55 (.2)	44% (51)	28.7	42% (84)	2.98 (48)	187	48% (20)	201	3.53 (95)	#56 (.12)	42% (81)	24.2	43% (77)	42% (84)	2.68 (10)	46.3	1	1.1
OSU	#4 (.37)	54% (2)	36.3	43% (75)	2.85 (66)	137	65% (1)	253	5.42 (1)	#4 (-.03)	36% (11)	7.2	33% (9)	38% (35)	2.27 (3)	32.1	0.6	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)		47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)		34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5
OSU	#1 (.43)	52% (3)		48% (19)	3.37 (15)	137	56% (1)	211	4.6 (15)	#2 (-.01)	36% (7)		39% (26)	34% (8)	2.05 (1)	31.6	0.8	1.1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Offense	9	28.7	20.5	44.2%	3.53	1	20	388	187	201	5.1	56%	43%	42%	48%	13%	.2
OSU Defense	9	7.2	6.6	35.7%	2.27	1	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	33%	38%	18%	-.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Defense	9	24.2	28	42.5%	2.68	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	43%	42%	15%	.12
OSU Offense	9	36.3	40.2	54%	5.42	0.6	20	390	137	253	4.7	49%	51%	43%	65%	10%	.37

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ohio	9	28:46	20.4	44%	47%	6.3	46.3	1	1.1	4.4	1.4	1	30.3
Ohio State	9	28:31	20	54%	70%	3.7	32.1	0.6	1	5.9	2.8	0	29.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Offense	9	56% (24)	42% (84)	36.4	187	5.1	19 (26)	.16 (43)	2.98 (48)	76% (40)	8% (28)	1.18 (4)
OSU Defense	9	45% (22)	33% (9)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (12)	2.29 (22)	67% (41)	13% (10)	0.96 (68)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Defense	9	49% (57)	43% (77)	-	-	-	-	.08 (70)	3.01 (105)	73% (77)	9% (96)	1.03 (100)
OSU Offense	9	49% (82)	43% (75)	28.9	136.9	4.7	13 (60)	.05 (99)	2.85 (66)	74% (55)	6% (4)	0.73 (134)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Offense	9	43% (115)	48% (20)	16	24	200.6	8.4	12.5	11 (86)	7 (60)	.31 (50)	1.4 (121)	31% (61)	33% (49)	.27 (86)	5% (55)	1.8 (123)
OSU Defense	9	54% (117)	38% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (100)	-.01 (5)	1.1 (1)	35% (18)	21% (3)	.04 (4)	5% (103)	1.9 (36)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Defense	9	51% (85)	42% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (31)	.16 (43)	1.5 (50)	31% (88)	28% (52)	.13 (14)	7% (40)	1.6 (2)
OSU Offense	9	51% (51)	65% (1)	20.3	25.3	252.7	10	12.4	24 (22)	3 (20)	.69 (1)	1.4 (109)	21% (3)	38% (16)	.59 (7)	4% (20)	1.9 (85)

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -2.16 #78
Ohio's Offense Rating: 6.21 #90
Ohio's Defense Rating: 8.37 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 574.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Ohio's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
Ohio's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.4 #96
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #85
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #92

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -2.16 Ohio State: 31.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -6.4 Ohio State: 29.8

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 31.65 #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 35.56 #1
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -17.31 #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73 #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 11.8 - 0.2
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 29.8 #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #7
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.6 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 28.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.5
Defense: 24.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Ohio's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 43
Ohio 7

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 29
Ohio 20

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 32
Ohio 16

Total Points: 48

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 36.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.2
Defense: 7.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.6

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 0
Record vs Spread: 7 - 1 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 0 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Ohio State	37	Ohio	9	Ohio State -28.0	Push	49.0	Under
2010	09/18	Ohio State	43	Ohio	7
2008	09/06	Ohio State	26	Ohio	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio State	3	0	0 Overs
Ohio	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#78) OHIO at (#1) OSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OHIO	OSU
Power RatePwr	#78	#1
SP+SP+	#96	#1
Perf GradeGrade	#80	#2
OffenseOff	#40	#2
DefenseDef	#111	#11
Spec TeamsST	#130	#35
TalentTal	#101	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#2

Ohio Notes(11/4) Big W over Miami OH. Even game, ST's, clutch
(10/31) Beat WVU, 4-2 w/o paycheck games. Def meh
(10/31) QB Navarro decent, RB Bangura leads MAC, OL #2
(10/31) Top Off in MAC w/ WR Hendricks & RB Bangura
(9/22) Def all nearly 500 yds to Gardner Webb?
(8/29) Navarro great vs Gers, but Pass Def torched
(8/28) RB S Bangura - 2k career yds (TR Back, inj LY)
(7/27) WR rebuild, Hendricks good LY, have some depth
(5/5) QB Navarro back, JAG passer but strong runner
(5/5) RB rebuild, Brune starter in spring, track runner
(5/5) Def OK LY, returns good prod. 8 portal adds
(5/5) HC Smith was OC/PGC for past 3 years
Ohio Injury Report

Ohio State Notes(10/11) OL seems to improve every week. RB Jackson a find
(10/11) CB Igbinosun physical & dares refs to call him on it
(10/6) Def is best unit in CFB. Allowed 25 points in 5 games
(9/29) Run Off is not good, Sayin is accurate but deep ball?
(9/22) Allowed 16 points in 3 games, none in red zone
(8/30) Def dominated Texas. Run game was awful
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos
(5/24) Fr WR Quincy Porter looks like next great one
Ohio State Injury Report

Ohio on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	OSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#40	#11
SuccessSuc	#51	#11
ExplosiveExp	#49	#3
PPAPPA	#55	#4
PowerPwr	#90	#1
SP+SP+	#85	#1
Pts POPPO	#95	#3
HavocHav	#34	#28

Ohio Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#54	#17
Run SuccessRSuc	#84	#9
Run ExplRExp	#4	#68
PPAExp	#43	#12
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#48	#22
Stuff RateStuff	#29	#34
TackleTak	-	#23

Ohio Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#121	#1
PPAExp	#50	#5
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#69	#39
F7 HavocF7	#28	#10
DB HavocDB	#55	#103

Ohio State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	OHIO Def
Perf GradePerf	#2	#111
SuccessSuc	#2	#81
ExplosiveExp	#122	#70
PPAPPA	#4	#56
PowerPwr	#1	#77
SP+SP+	#7	#92
Pts POPPO	#1	#10
HavocHav	#5	#80

Ohio State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#53	#125
Run SuccessRSuc	#75	#77
Run ExplRExp	#134	#100
PPAExp	#99	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	#66	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#89	#84
TackleTak	-	#108

Ohio State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#109	#50
PPAExp	#1	#43
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#65	#76
F7 HavocF7	#4	#96
DB HavocDB	#20	#40

Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

OHIO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 85°

Rematch from Week 3
Ohio State -28.0 (49.0)
Ohio State won vs Ohio this year (37-9)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Navarro	140	207	68%	1786	11	7	8.6
Nick Poulos	4	8	50%	19	0	0	2.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sieh Bangura (Tr)	139	728	9	5.2	49
Parker Navarro	91	504	4	5.5	44
Duncan Brune	78	381	6	4.9	66
Dorian Boyland (Tr)	8	45	0	5.6	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Hendricks	57	805	6	14.1	67
Rodney Harris II	19	259	1	13.6	49
Mason Williams	19	208	2	10.9	30
Caleb Gossett	10	140	0	14.0	35

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC John Hauser (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Molnar	62	5	2	2	3
Adonis Williams Jr.	54	2	0	0	1
Jalen Thomeson	52	4	0	1	0
DJ Walker	42	4	0	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Crable	21	7	5	3	4
Anas Luqman (Tr)	20	7	2	5	2
Michael Molnar	62	5	2	2	3
Joseph Marsh (Tr)	5	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tank Pearson	33	0	0	0	8
Jay Crable	21	7	5	3	4
Michael Molnar	62	5	2	2	3

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Julian Sayin	203	251	81%	2491	24	4	9.9
Lincoln Kienholz	7	8	88%	86	1	0	10.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bo Jackson	95	613	2	6.5	64
CJ Donaldson (Tr)	72	278	9	3.9	27
James Peoples	49	240	0	4.9	33
Isaiah West	34	177	1	5.2	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Smith	65	862	10	13.3	87
Carnell Tate	39	711	7	18.2	57
Max Klare (Tr)	26	269	1	10.3	29
Brandon Inniss	21	180	1	8.6	29

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Arvell Reese	55	10	7	2	2
Sonny Styles	51	3	0	2	2
Caleb Downs	43	3	0	1	0
Kayden McDonald	41	7	3	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caden Curry	38	11	7	5	1
Arvell Reese	55	10	7	2	2
Kenyatta Jackson	15	7	5	2	2
Kayden McDonald	41	7	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davison Igbinosun	32	1	0	0	5
Arvell Reese	55	10	7	2	2
Jaylen McClain	35	0	0	0	2