Ohio at Ohio State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Ohio State -28.0 (49.0) (-20000) Open: -33.5 | 53.5
Ohio State 37 - Ohio: 9

Bobcats (9 - 4) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brian Smith (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (21 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)

OSU 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Ohio State -37.5 (SP+ OSU -35)
Projected Score: OHIO: 5 - OSU: 43 (48)
OSU Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
OHIO Travel: 68 miles

Buckeyes (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 33 - 9 (42 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12 - 2 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
OHIO Players
OSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ohio's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Ohio at Rutgers	+11.5	46.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Ohio vs West Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Ohio at Ohio State	+28.0	49.0	L 9 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Ohio vs Gardner-Webb	-30.5	55.0	W 52 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/27	Ohio vs Bowling Green	-7.5	49.5	W 35 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Ohio at Ball State	-14.0	52.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Ohio vs Northern Illinois	-10.5	41.5	W 48 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Ohio at Eastern Michigan	-11.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	-2.5	50.5	W 24 - 20	U	Y
Tue 11/11	Ohio at Western Michigan	+1.5	46.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
Tue 11/18	Ohio vs Massachusetts	-34.5	53.5	W 42 - 14	O	N
Fri 11/28	Ohio at Buffalo	-7.0	44.5	W 31 - 26	O	N
Tue 12/23	Ohio vs UNLV	+6.5	64.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule

Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Ohio State vs Texas	-1.5	46.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Ohio State vs Grambling	-55.5	62.5	W 70 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Ohio State vs Ohio	-28.0	49.0	W 37 - 9	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Ohio State at Washington	-9.5	52.5	W 24 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Ohio State vs Minnesota	-23.5	42.5	W 42 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Ohio State at Illinois	-15.5	51.5	W 34 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Ohio State at Wisconsin	-24.5	41.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Ohio State vs Penn State	-17.5	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Ohio State at Purdue	-29.5	49.5	W 34 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/15	Ohio State vs UCLA	-33.5	46.5	W 48 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Ohio State vs Rutgers	-29.0	54.0	W 42 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Ohio State at Michigan	-9.5	43.5	W 27 - 9	U	Y
Sat 12/6	Ohio State vs Indiana	-5.5	48.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Wed 12/31	Ohio State vs Miami	-7.5	39.5	L 14 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO	#42 (.21)	45% (41)	27.8	45% (58)	3.32 (14)	228	46% (29)	184	3.55 (84)	#54 (.12)	41% (63)	21.9	42% (69)	40% (57)	2.83 (13)	48.3	1.5	1.3
OSU	#10 (.31)	52% (3)	33.4	45% (47)	2.99 (61)	155	58% (1)	268	4.83 (5)	#3 (-.02)	34% (7)	9.3	31% (4)	38% (32)	2.64 (8)	38.5	0.8	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)		47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)		34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5
OSU	#1 (.43)	52% (3)		48% (19)	3.37 (15)	137	56% (1)	211	4.6 (15)	#2 (-.01)	36% (7)		39% (26)	34% (8)	2.05 (1)	31.6	0.8	1.1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Offense	13	27.8	21	44.9%	3.55	1.5	22	412	228	184	5.4	60%	38%	45%	46%	12%	.21
OSU Defense	14	9.3	7.4	34.4%	2.64	1	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	31%	38%	16%	-.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OHIO Defense	13	21.9	25.8	41.3%	2.83	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	42%	40%	15%	.12
OSU Offense	14	33.4	41.6	51.7%	4.83	0.8	23	423	155	268	4.6	48%	51%	45%	58%	11%	.31

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ohio	13	32:07	21.6	42%	59%	6.2	48.3	1.5	1.3	4.9	1.7	2	29.9
Ohio State	14	33:00	22.6	53%	67%	4.1	38.5	0.8	1	5.6	2.5	1	29

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Offense	13	60% (11)	45% (58)	42.5	228.2	5.4	32 (26)	.21 (23)	3.32 (14)	79% (23)	7% (17)	1.1 (16)
OSU Defense	14	48% (50)	31% (4)	-	-	-	-	-.09 (4)	2.5 (10)	59% (9)	11% (17)	0.82 (7)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OHIO Defense	13	50% (73)	42% (69)	-	-	-	-	.08 (56)	2.98 (87)	67% (32)	9% (86)	0.99 (90)
OSU Offense	14	48% (80)	45% (47)	33.6	154.8	4.6	25 (60)	.08 (89)	2.99 (61)	73% (61)	7% (14)	0.78 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Offense	13	38% (127)	46% (29)	14.8	24	184.2	7.7	12.5	14 (86)	11 (60)	.27 (60)	1.4 (119)	29% (31)	33% (35)	.24 (94)	5% (35)	1.6 (135)
OSU Defense	14	50% (89)	38% (32)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.05 (5)	1.2 (1)	36% (13)	23% (5)	.08 (5)	5% (108)	1.7 (7)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OHIO Defense	13	48% (65)	40% (57)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (31)	.21 (54)	1.6 (88)	31% (71)	28% (39)	.2 (26)	6% (75)	2 (55)
OSU Offense	14	51% (54)	58% (1)	22.4	29.1	268.2	9.2	12	33 (22)	8 (20)	.54 (4)	1.4 (117)	24% (3)	39% (7)	.5 (12)	4% (17)	1.9 (90)

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -4.92 #79
Ohio's Offense Rating: 10.07 #86
Ohio's Defense Rating: 14.99 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 574.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Ohio's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
Ohio's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.9 #82
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #88
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #67

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -4.92 Ohio State: 33.48

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio: -2.9 Ohio State: 32.4

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 33.48 #2
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 25.53 #10
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -5.04 #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73 #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 2.0
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.4 #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #5
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.0 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Ohio's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 43
Ohio 5

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 27
Ohio 19

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 31
Ohio 17

Total Points: 48

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.6
Defense: 9.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.4

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 0 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Ohio State	37	Ohio	9	Ohio State -28.0	Push	49.0	Under
2010	09/18	Ohio State	43	Ohio	7
2008	09/06	Ohio State	26	Ohio	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio State	3	0	0 Overs
Ohio	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#79) OHIO at (#2) OSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OHIO	OSU
Net PPPPPP	#62	#4
Power RatePwr	#79	#2
SP+SP+	#82	#1
Perf GradeGrade	#73	#2
OffenseOff	#44	#2
DefenseDef	#91	#3
Spec TeamsST	#106	#21
TalentTal	#101	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#2

Ohio Notes(12/17) HC Smith fired. Weird situation
(11/13) WMU controls MAC after beating Ohio, Navarro meh
(11/4) Big W over Miami OH. Even game, ST's, clutch
(10/31) Beat WVU, 4-2 w/o paycheck games. Def meh
(10/31) QB Navarro decent, RB Bangura leads MAC, OL #2
(10/31) Top Off in MAC w/ WR Hendricks & RB Bangura
(9/22) Def all nearly 500 yds to Gardner Webb?
(8/29) Navarro great vs Gers, but Pass Def torched
(8/28) RB S Bangura - 2k career yds (TR Back, inj LY)
(7/27) WR rebuild, Hendricks good LY, have some depth
(5/5) QB Navarro back, JAG passer but strong runner
(5/5) RB rebuild, Brune starter in spring, track runner
Ohio Injury Report

Ohio State Notes(11/15) WR2 Carnell Tate out for season (calf injury)
(10/11) OL seems to improve every week. RB Jackson a find
(10/11) CB Igbinosun physical & dares refs to call him on it
(10/6) Def is best unit in CFB. Allowed 25 points in 5 games
(9/29) Run Off is not good, Sayin is accurate but deep ball?
(9/22) Allowed 16 points in 3 games, none in red zone
(8/30) Def dominated Texas. Run game was awful
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos
Ohio State Injury Report

Ohio on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	OSU Def
PPPOffPPP	#77	#13
Perf GradePerf	#44	#3
SuccessSuc	#41	#7
ExplosiveExp	#84	#2
PPAPPA	#42	#3
PowerPwr	#86	#1
SP+SP+	#88	#1
Pts POPPO	#84	#8
HavocHav	#17	#57

Ohio Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#48	#2
Run SuccessRSuc	#58	#4
Run ExplRExp	#16	#7
PPAExp	#23	#4
Run BlockR Blk	#19	-
OL YdsOLY	#14	#10
Stuff RateStuff	#4	#14
TackleTak	-	#3

Ohio Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#11
Pass SuccessPSuc	#29	#32
Pass ExplPExl	#119	#1
PPAExp	#60	#5
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#70	#44
F7 HavocF7	#17	#17
DB HavocDB	#35	#108

Ohio State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	OHIO Def
PPPDefPPP	#43	#1
Perf GradePerf	#2	#91
SuccessSuc	#3	#63
ExplosiveExp	#124	#75
PPAPPA	#10	#54
PowerPwr	#10	#77
SP+SP+	#5	#67
Pts POPPO	#5	#13
HavocHav	#6	#86

Ohio State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#24	#97
Run SuccessRSuc	#47	#69
Run ExplRExp	#133	#90
PPAExp	#89	#56
Run BlockR Blk	#8	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#87
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#72
TackleTak	-	#97

Ohio State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	OSU Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#77
Pass SuccessPSuc	#1	#57
Pass ExplPExl	#117	#88
PPAExp	#4	#54
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#52	#73
F7 HavocF7	#14	#86
DB HavocDB	#17	#75

Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

OHIO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 85°

Rematch from Week 3
Ohio State -28.0 (49.0)
Ohio State won vs Ohio this year (37-9)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Navarro	188	303	62%	2375	14	11	7.8
Nick Poulos	4	8	50%	19	0	0	2.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sieh Bangura (Tr)	240	1392	15	5.8	49
Parker Navarro	161	886	9	5.5	44
Duncan Brune	120	585	8	4.9	66
Jake Bruno	1	48	0	48.0	48

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Hendricks	71	1037	7	14.6	67
Rodney Harris II	30	419	2	14.0	49
Mason Williams	27	285	3	10.6	30
Caleb Gossett	12	162	0	13.5	35

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC John Hauser (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Thomeson	86	7	0	2	1
Adonis Williams Jr.	75	4	1	1	1
Charlie Christopher	63	3	2	2	2
Michael Molnar	62	5	2	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Crable	28	8	6	4	4
Anas Luqman (Tr)	33	9	4	5	2
Joseph Marsh (Tr)	8	2	2	0	0
Charlie Christopher	63	3	2	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tank Pearson	49	0	0	0	8
Jack Fries	54	3	1	1	5
Jay Crable	28	8	6	4	4

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Julian Sayin	301	391	77%	3610	32	8	9.2
Lincoln Kienholz	11	14	79%	139	1	0	9.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bo Jackson	179	1090	6	6.1	64
CJ Donaldson (Tr)	96	361	10	3.8	27
James Peoples	61	344	3	5.6	49
Isaiah West	59	310	2	5.3	38

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Smith	87	1243	12	14.3	87
Carnell Tate	51	875	9	17.2	57
Max Klare (Tr)	43	448	2	10.4	39
Brandon Inniss	36	271	3	7.5	29

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sonny Styles	83	7	1	4	3
Arvell Reese	69	10	7	5	2
Caleb Downs	68	5	1	1	1
Caden Curry	66	17	11	8	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caden Curry	66	17	11	8	2
Kenyatta Jackson	28	11	7	2	2
Arvell Reese	69	10	7	5	2
Eddrick Houston	21	4	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davison Igbinosun	52	1	0	0	6
Sonny Styles	83	7	1	4	3
Jaylen McClain	53	0	0	0	3