Penn State at Ohio State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes(#1)Ohio State logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio State -17.5 (45.5) (-1050)  Open: -4.0
Ohio State 38 - Penn State: 14  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (3 - 6) (2 - 7 - 0)
Coach Terry Smith (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (25 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#91)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
PSU coming off BYE
OSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Ohio State -17  (SP+ OSU -15)

Projected Score: PSU: 16 - OSU: 33 (48)
OSU Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
PSU Travel: 277 miles
Buckeyes (9 - 0) (7 - 1 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 36 - 7 (40 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.8 - 0.2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.552.5L 24 - 30ON
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-24.548.5L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-20.546.5L 21 - 22UN
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa+3.541.5L 24 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+17.545.5L 14 - 38ON
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana+13.550.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-9
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-7
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-11

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ohio State vs Texas-1.546.5W 14 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Ohio State vs Grambling-55.562.5W 70 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Ohio State vs Ohio-28.049.0W 37 - 9UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Ohio State at Washington-9.552.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/4 Ohio State vs Minnesota-23.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Sat 10/11 Ohio State at Illinois-15.551.5W 34 - 16UY
Sat 10/18 Ohio State at Wisconsin-24.541.5W 34 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Ohio State vs Penn State-17.545.5W 38 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 Ohio State at Purdue-29.549.5W 34 - 10UN
Sat 11/15 Ohio State vs UCLA-30.5
Sat 11/22 Ohio State vs Rutgers-30.5
Sat 11/29 Ohio State at Michigan-8.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#52 (.2)46% (32)30.748% (25)3.12 (34)13844% (56)1604.4 (33)#67 (.14)42% (78)22.344% (85)41% (65)3.74 (73)27.70.91.1
OSU#4 (.37)54% (2)36.343% (75)2.85 (66)13765% (1)2535.42 (1)#4 (-.03)36% (11)7.233% (9)38% (35)2.27 (3)32.10.61
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)48% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)39% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense930.72545.9%4.40.9172981381604.554%46%48%44%13%.2
OSU Defense97.26.635.7%2.271 - - - - - 45%54%33%38%18%-.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense922.33542%3.741.1 - - - - - 56%43%44%41%15%.14
OSU Offense936.340.254%5.420.6203901372534.749%51%43%65%10%.37

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State925:0517.343%57%3.227.70.91.15.21.4233.5
Ohio State928:312054%70%3.732.10.615.92.8029.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense954% (43)48% (25)311384.519 (26).21 (23)3.12 (34)78% (31)8% (32)0.99 (56)
OSU Defense945% (22)33% (9) - - - - -.04 (12)2.29 (22)67% (41)13% (10)0.96 (68)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense956% (124)44% (85) - - - - .15 (107)2.84 (84)76% (105)10% (57)0.93 (55)
OSU Offense949% (82)43% (75)28.9136.94.713 (60).05 (99)2.85 (66)74% (55)6% (4)0.73 (134)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense946% (93)44% (56)16.125.2160.36.4109 (86)6 (60).2 (89)1.3 (130)28% (20)32% (54).33 (67)5% (45)1.9 (103)
OSU Defense954% (117)38% (35) - - - - - - 5 (100)-.01 (5)1.1 (1)35% (18)21% (3).04 (4)5% (103)1.9 (36)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense943% (12)41% (65) - - - - - - 5 (55).23 (68)1.4 (15)30% (100)26% (28).17 (27)4% (121)1.6 (4)
OSU Offense951% (51)65% (1)20.325.3252.71012.424 (22)3 (20).69 (1)1.4 (109)21% (3)38% (16).59 (7)4% (20)1.9 (85)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 14.64  #34
Penn State's Offense Rating: 16.50  #33
Penn State's Defense Rating: 1.86  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00  #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53%  #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.0  #22
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #29
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 14.64   Ohio State: 31.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 15.0   Ohio State: 29.8




Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 31.65  #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 35.56  #1
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -17.31  #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73  #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 11.8 - 0.2
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 29.8  #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4  #7
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.6  #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 6
Record vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 33
Penn State 16


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 35
Penn State 17

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 33
Penn State 17

Total Points: 50
Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 36.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.2
Defense: 7.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 6.6

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 0
Record vs Spread: 7 - 1 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 0 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Ohio State38Penn State14Ohio State -17.5Ohio State45.5Over
202411/02Penn State13Ohio State20Ohio State -3Ohio State47.5Under
202310/21Ohio State20Penn State12Ohio State -4.0Ohio State47.0Under
202210/29Penn State31Ohio State44Ohio State -15.5Penn State60.5Over
202110/30Ohio State33Penn State24Ohio State -18.5Penn State60.5Under
202010/31Penn State25Ohio State38Ohio State -13.0NA0
201911/23Ohio State28Penn State17Ohio State -20.0Penn State59.0Under
201809/29Penn State26Ohio State27Ohio State -3Penn State68.5Under
201710/28Ohio State39Penn State38Ohio State -7Penn State57.5Over
201610/22Penn State24Ohio State21Ohio State -20Penn State55.0Under
201510/17Ohio State38Penn State10Ohio State -17.5Ohio State49.0Under
201410/25Penn State24Ohio State31Ohio State -11.5Penn State0
201310/26Ohio State63Penn State14Ohio State -14Ohio State0
201210/27Penn State23Ohio State35
201111/19Ohio State14Penn State20
201011/13Ohio State38Penn State14
200911/07Penn State7Ohio State24
200810/25Ohio State6Penn State13
200710/27Penn State17Ohio State37
200609/23Ohio State28Penn State6
200510/08Penn State17Ohio State10
200410/30Ohio State21Penn State10
200311/01Penn State20Ohio State21
200210/26Ohio State13Penn State7
200110/27Penn State29Ohio State27
200009/22Ohio State45Penn State6
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ohio State2153 Overs
Penn State577 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 118 - 44 - 34 - 1
Road Teams11 - 154 - 81 - 43 - 4

(#34) PSU at (#1) OSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUOSU
Power RatePwr #34 #1
SP+SP+ #22 #1
Perf GradeGrade #34 #2
OffenseOff #60 #2
DefenseDef #30 #11
Spec TeamsST #3 #35
TalentTal #4 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #2
Penn State Notes
(10/22) OC Kotelnicki says 2 QB's will be used forward
(10/19) QB Grunkemeyer doesn't look like he can play
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
(9/30) OL push is an issue, Allar/WR did little vs Ducks. Yikes
(9/15) Off #'s good but cupcakes so far, Pass Off expl?
(8/30) 3.8 ypc vs Nevada? Allar big w/ Hudson/Pena
(6/6) Def still solid, DL a top 10 unit via PFF
Penn State Injury Report
Ohio State Notes
(10/11) OL seems to improve every week. RB Jackson a find
(10/11) CB Igbinosun physical & dares refs to call him on it
(10/6) Def is best unit in CFB. Allowed 25 points in 5 games
(9/29) Run Off is not good, Sayin is accurate but deep ball?
(9/22) Allowed 16 points in 3 games, none in red zone
(8/30) Def dominated Texas. Run game was awful
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos
(5/24) Fr WR Quincy Porter looks like next great one
Ohio State Injury Report
Penn State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffOSU Def
Perf GradePerf #60 #11
SuccessSuc #32 #11
ExplosiveExp #124 #3
PPAPPA #52 #4
PowerPwr #33 #1
SP+SP+ #29 #1
Pts POPPO #33 #3
HavocHav #33 #28
Penn State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffOSU Def
Run GameRun #48 #17
Run SuccessRSuc #25 #9
Run ExplRExp #56 #68
PPAExp #23 #12
Run BlockR Blk #32 -
OL YdsOLY #34 #22
Stuff RateStuff #9 #34
TackleTak -  #23
Penn State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
PSU OffOSU Def
Pass GamePass #105 #7
Pass SuccessPSuc #56 #35
Pass ExplPExl #130 #1
PPAExp #89 #5
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #12 #39
F7 HavocF7 #32 #10
DB HavocDB #45 #103
Ohio State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatOSU OffPSU Def
Perf GradePerf #2 #30
SuccessSuc #2 #78
ExplosiveExp #122 #10
PPAPPA #4 #67
PowerPwr #1 #36
SP+SP+ #7 #25
Pts POPPO #1 #73
HavocHav #5 #96
Ohio State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
OSU OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #53 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #75 #85
Run ExplRExp #134 #55
PPAExp #99 #107
Run BlockR Blk #6 -
OL YdsOLY #66 #84
Stuff RateStuff #89 #67
TackleTak -  #19
Ohio State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatOSU OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #1 #33
Pass SuccessPSuc #1 #65
Pass ExplPExl #109 #15
PPAExp #1 #68
Pass Block/RushP Blk #65 #33
F7 HavocF7 #4 #57
DB HavocDB #20 #121
Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 54°
Rematch from Week 10
Ohio State -17.5 (45.5)
Ohio State won vs Penn State this year (38-14)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Penn State last year (20-13)
Ohio State beat Penn State in 2023 (20-12)
Ohio State beat Penn State in 2022 (44-31)

  
PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar10315965%1100836.9
Ethan Grunkemeyer649766%562245.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen138736105.367
Nicholas Singleton9236393.959
Drew Allar3617214.827
Trebor Pena (Tr)106706.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trebor Pena (Tr)32331110.343
Devonte Ross (Tr)23281312.267
Kyron Ware-Hudson21245211.731
Luke Reynolds2221809.922

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)678230
Zakee Wheatley611011
Dominic DeLuca435122
Audavion Collins352002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zane Durant234311
Amare Campbell (Tr)678230
Zuriah Fisher154231
Dani Dennis-Sutton297272
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
King Mack (Tr)340013
Zion Tracy192002
Dominic DeLuca435122

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Julian Sayin20325181%24912449.9
Lincoln Kienholz7888%861010.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bo Jackson9561326.564
CJ Donaldson (Tr)7227893.927
James Peoples4924004.933
Isaiah West3417715.216
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Smith658621013.387
Carnell Tate39711718.257
Max Klare (Tr)26269110.329
Brandon Inniss2118018.629

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arvell Reese5510722
Sonny Styles513022
Caleb Downs433010
Kayden McDonald417310
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Curry3811751
Arvell Reese5510722
Kenyatta Jackson157522
Kayden McDonald417310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davison Igbinosun321005
Arvell Reese5510722
Jaylen McClain350002