Penn State at Ohio State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State BuckeyesOhio State logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Ohio Stadium - Columbus, OH  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (3 - 3) (0 - 6 - 0)
Coach Terry Smith (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 36 - 19 (37 - 42 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.2 - 5.8 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
PSU coming off BYE
OSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Ohio State -13  (SP+ OSU -10)

Projected Score: PSU: 22 - OSU: 35 (56)
OSU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
PSU Travel: 277 miles
Buckeyes (6 - 0) (5 - 0 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 7 (41 - 5 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.5 - 0.5 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Penn State vs Nevada-45.558.5W 46 - 11UN
Sat 9/6 Penn State vs Florida International-42.053.5W 34 - 0UN
Sat 9/13 Penn State vs Villanova-46.557.5W 52 - 6ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Penn State vs Oregon-4.552.5L 24 - 30ON
Sat 10/4 Penn State at UCLA-24.548.5L 37 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Penn State vs Northwestern-20.546.5L 21 - 22UN
Sat 10/18 Penn State at Iowa+2.540.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Penn State at Ohio State+13
Sat 11/8 Penn State vs Indiana+6
Sat 11/15 Penn State at Michigan State-10
Sat 11/22 Penn State vs Nebraska-4.5
Sat 11/29 Penn State at Rutgers-10

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ohio State vs Texas-1.546.5W 14 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Ohio State vs Grambling-55.562.5W 70 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Ohio State vs Ohio-28.049.0W 37 - 9UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Ohio State at Washington-9.552.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/4 Ohio State vs Minnesota-23.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Sat 10/11 Ohio State at Illinois-15.551.5W 34 - 16UY
Sat 10/18 Ohio State at Wisconsin-24.541.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Ohio State vs Penn State-13
Sat 11/8 Ohio State at Purdue-30
Sat 11/15 Ohio State vs UCLA-33
Sat 11/22 Ohio State vs Rutgers-25.5
Sat 11/29 Ohio State at Michigan-6

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#51 (.23)47% (34)35.748% (35)3.35 (21)16946% (44)2014.64 (30)#25 (.07)40% (55)18.543% (83)38% (36)3.36 (36)340.81.3
OSU#21 (.32)52% (8)36.842% (89)2.88 (78)16264% (1)2615.42 (3)#5 (-.05)37% (24)6.835% (19)39% (48)2.4 (5)390.71.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)48% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)39% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense635.73747.1%4.640.820370169201553%47%48%46%12%.23
OSU Defense66.84.837.2%2.41.2 - - - - - 44%55%35%39%18%-.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense618.54240.3%3.361.3 - - - - - 56%43%43%38%16%.07
OSU Offense636.840.852.4%5.420.7224231622614.951%49%42%64%9%.32

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State626:3720.342%63%4.2340.81.36.82.2235.6
Ohio State632:062254%57%4.5390.71.26.53031.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense653% (46)48% (35)33.7169515 (25).24 (25)3.35 (21)81% (28)7% (10)0.99 (56)
OSU Defense644% (17)35% (19) - - - - -.04 (18)2.46 (22)63% (27)13% (26)0.88 (38)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense656% (117)43% (83) - - - - .1 (75)2.72 (46)75% (88)11% (37)0.86 (31)
OSU Offense651% (64)42% (89)33.3161.74.912 (48).04 (104)2.88 (78)75% (53)5% (2)0.75 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense647% (86)46% (44)18.528.3200.87.110.99 (73)3 (26).23 (90)1.3 (127)26% (18)32% (64).38 (48)5% (57)1.9 (91)
OSU Defense655% (116)39% (48) - - - - - - 3 (93)-.03 (7)1.1 (1)34% (43)21% (10).04 (6)5% (93)1.8 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense643% (18)38% (36) - - - - - - 4 (62).08 (21)1.3 (6)33% (53)26% (32).13 (24)5% (116)1.7 (10)
OSU Offense649% (72)64% (1)21.227.2260.89.612.316 (9)3 (26).62 (3)1.4 (115)23% (4)39% (19).58 (15)4% (30)1.9 (95)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 22.28  #26
Penn State's Offense Rating: 19.90  #34
Penn State's Defense Rating: -2.38  #26
2025 Talent Rating: 1078.00  #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 53%  #10
Penn State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.2 - 5.8
Penn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.6  #18
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.7  #20
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.4  #21

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 22.28   Ohio State: 32.955

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 17.6   Ohio State: 27.6




Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 32.955  #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 32.25  #2
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -16.88  #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73  #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 11.5 - 0.5
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.6  #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.3  #8
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.7  #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 35.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 42

Penn State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread: 0 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 35
Penn State 22


Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 35
Penn State 21

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 35
Penn State 21

Total Points: 56
Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 36.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.8
Defense: 6.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 4.8

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 0 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/02Penn State13Ohio State20Ohio State -3Ohio State47.5Under
202310/21Ohio State20Penn State12Ohio State -4.0Ohio State47.0Under
202210/29Penn State31Ohio State44Ohio State -15.5Penn State60.5Over
202110/30Ohio State33Penn State24Ohio State -18.5Penn State60.5Under
202010/31Penn State25Ohio State38Ohio State -13.0NA0
201911/23Ohio State28Penn State17Ohio State -20.0Penn State59.0Under
201809/29Penn State26Ohio State27Ohio State -3Penn State68.5Under
201710/28Ohio State39Penn State38Ohio State -7Penn State57.5Over
201610/22Penn State24Ohio State21Ohio State -20Penn State55.0Under
201510/17Ohio State38Penn State10Ohio State -17.5Ohio State49.0Under
201410/25Penn State24Ohio State31Ohio State -11.5Penn State0
201310/26Ohio State63Penn State14Ohio State -14Ohio State0
201210/27Penn State23Ohio State35
201111/19Ohio State14Penn State20
201011/13Ohio State38Penn State14
200911/07Penn State7Ohio State24
200810/25Ohio State6Penn State13
200710/27Penn State17Ohio State37
200609/23Ohio State28Penn State6
200510/08Penn State17Ohio State10
200410/30Ohio State21Penn State10
200311/01Penn State20Ohio State21
200210/26Ohio State13Penn State7
200110/27Penn State29Ohio State27
200009/22Ohio State45Penn State6
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ohio State2042 Overs
Penn State577 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 117 - 43 - 34 - 1
Road Teams11 - 144 - 71 - 43 - 3

(#26) PSU at (#1) OSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUOSU
Power RatePwr #26 #1
SP+SP+ #18 #1
Perf GradeGrade #27 #4
OffenseOff #50 #2
DefenseDef #19 #9
Spec TeamsST #4 #58
TalentTal #4 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #2

Penn State Notes
(10/12) James Franklin fired. CFB HC market will be crazy
(10/12) Interim is AHC Terry Smith, was def ass.
(10/11) Lost to Northwestern, Allar out for the year. Woof
(10/4) Def torched, Run Off awful in horrific L @ UCLA
(10/4) Suddenly people calling for Franklin's job post UCLA
(10/1) LB Tony Rojas out indefinitely w/ 'significant injury'
(9/30) OL push is an issue, Allar/WR did little vs Ducks. Yikes
(9/15) Off #'s good but cupcakes so far, Pass Off expl?
(8/30) 3.8 ypc vs Nevada? Allar big w/ Hudson/Pena
(6/6) Def still solid, DL a top 10 unit via PFF
(5/23) CBs Harris & Washington a top duo in CFB

Ohio State Notes
(10/11) OL seems to improve every week. RB Jackson a find
(10/11) CB Igbinosun physical & dares refs to call him on it
(10/6) Def is best unit in CFB. Allowed 25 points in 5 games
(9/29) Run Off is not good, Sayin is accurate but deep ball?
(9/22) Allowed 16 points in 3 games, none in red zone
(8/30) Def dominated Texas. Run game was awful
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos
Penn State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
PSU OffOSU Def
Perf GradePerf #50 #9
SuccessSuc #34 #24
ExplosiveExp #119 #2
PPAPPA #51 #5
PowerPwr #34 #1
SP+SP+ #20 #2
Pts POPPO #30 #5
HavocHav #22 #43
Penn State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
PSU OffOSU Def
Run GameRun #50 #14
Run SuccessRSuc #35 #19
Run ExplRExp #56 #38
PPAExp #25 #18
Run BlockR Blk #24 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #22
Stuff RateStuff #3 #34
TackleTak -  #22
Penn State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
PSU OffOSU Def
Pass GamePass #84 #12
Pass SuccessPSuc #44 #48
Pass ExplPExl #127 #1
PPAExp #90 #7
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #13 #31
F7 HavocF7 #10 #26
DB HavocDB #57 #93
Ohio State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatOSU OffPSU Def
Perf GradePerf #2 #19
SuccessSuc #8 #55
ExplosiveExp #122 #3
PPAPPA #21 #25
PowerPwr #2 #26
SP+SP+ #8 #21
Pts POPPO #3 #36
HavocHav #6 #68
Ohio State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
OSU OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #69 #37
Run SuccessRSuc #89 #83
Run ExplRExp #131 #31
PPAExp #104 #75
Run BlockR Blk #11 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #46
Stuff RateStuff #78 #62
TackleTak -  #16
Ohio State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatOSU OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #1 #21
Pass SuccessPSuc #1 #36
Pass ExplPExl #115 #6
PPAExp #3 #21
Pass Block/RushP Blk #39 #20
F7 HavocF7 #2 #37
DB HavocDB #30 #116
Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Penn State last year (20-13)
Ohio State beat Penn State in 2023 (20-12)
Ohio State beat Penn State in 2022 (44-31)

  
PSU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar10315965%1100836.9
Ethan Grunkemeyer81173%105109.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen7046776.767
Nicholas Singleton7025963.716
Drew Allar3617214.827
Trebor Pena (Tr)95806.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devonte Ross (Tr)16240315.067
Kyron Ware-Hudson19218211.531
Trebor Pena (Tr)20202110.130
Luke Reynolds18197010.922

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)506210
Zakee Wheatley391001
Dominic DeLuca313121
Tony Rojas255221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Amare Campbell (Tr)506210
Zuriah Fisher102221
Tony Rojas255221
Zane Durant183201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
King Mack (Tr)240002
Dani Dennis-Sutton236162
Audavion Collins210002

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Julian Sayin12015378%14791539.7
Lincoln Kienholz7888%861010.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bo Jackson5840727.064
CJ Donaldson (Tr)5823764.127
James Peoples4020205.133
Isaiah West124914.112
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Smith40505712.687
Carnell Tate28476417.049
Max Klare (Tr)15175111.729
Brandon Inniss118707.912

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arvell Reese385522
Sonny Styles382010
Caden Curry3110621
Caleb Downs282010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Curry3110621
Arvell Reese385522
Kayden McDonald266310
Kenyatta Jackson84221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davison Igbinosun261004
Arvell Reese385522
Jermaine Mathews Jr.112102