Missouri at Ohio State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Missouri Tigers vs Ohio State Buckeyes(#3)

Friday, December 29th 2023 (8:00 PM EST)
Ohio State -4.0 (51.0) (125) Open: -2.5 | 49.0
Missouri 14 - Ohio State: 3 (Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic)

Tigers (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (20 - 19)
Avg Score : 33 - 21 (36 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Ohio State -10 (SP+ OSU -9)
Projected Score: MIZ: 23 - OSU: 33 (56)
OSU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MIZ Travel: 502 miles, 1 hrs behind

Buckeyes (11 - 2) (6 - 5 - 2)
Coach Ryan Day (48 - 6)
Avg Score : 31 - 11 (38 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
MIZ Players
OSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Missouri vs South Dakota	-27.0	44.5	W 35 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/9	Missouri vs Middle Tennessee	-21.0	47.5	W 23 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/16	Missouri vs Kansas State	+3.5	48.0	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Missouri vs Memphis	-6.5	52.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Missouri at Vanderbilt	-14.0	53.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Missouri vs LSU	+6.0	63.5	L 39 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/14	Missouri at Kentucky	+1.5	50.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Missouri vs South Carolina	-7.5	57.5	W 34 - 12	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Missouri at Georgia	+15.0	56.5	L 21 - 30	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Missouri vs Tennessee	+1.0	58.5	W 36 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Missouri vs Florida	-12.5	56.5	W 33 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Missouri at Arkansas	-9.5	53.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Missouri vs Ohio State	+4.0	51.0	W 14 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule

Ohio State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ohio State at Indiana	-30.0	59.0	W 23 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/9	Ohio State vs Youngstown State	-45.5	56.0	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Ohio State vs Western Kentucky	-29.5	65.0	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ohio State at Notre Dame	-3.0	55.5	W 17 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Ohio State vs Maryland	-17.0	56.5	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Ohio State at Purdue	-17.5	53.0	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Ohio State vs Penn State	-4.0	47.0	W 20 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Ohio State at Wisconsin	-14.5	48.0	W 24 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/4	Ohio State at Rutgers	-19.0	42.5	W 35 - 16	O	N
Sat 11/11	Ohio State vs Michigan State	-30.5	48.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Ohio State vs Minnesota	-27.5	51.5	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Ohio State at Michigan	+3.0	47.0	L 24 - 30	O	N
Fri 12/29	Ohio State vs Missouri	-4.0	51.0	L 3 - 14	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ	#21 (.29)	46% (26)	32.5	45% (48)	3.06 (82)	172	48% (13)	261	4.51 (22)	#47 (.15)	37% (19)	20.8	35% (13)	39% (30)	3.93 (81)	54.2	0.7	1.5
OSU	#14 (.31)	47% (22)	30.5	45% (49)	3.18 (57)	139	49% (12)	269	4.21 (36)	#5 (.03)	36% (11)	11.2	35% (12)	37% (17)	2.69 (5)	44.5	1	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ	#70 (.19)	44% (54)		47% (28)	3.04 (67)	159	41% (80)	202	3.91 (68)	#32 (.11)	41% (54)		42% (57)	39% (56)	3.38 (28)	46	0.7	1.2
OSU	#1 (.43)	52% (3)		48% (19)	3.37 (15)	137	56% (1)	211	4.6 (15)	#2 (-.01)	36% (7)		39% (26)	34% (8)	2.05 (1)	31.6	0.8	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Offense	13	32.5	36.3	46.1%	4.51	0.7	22	433	172	261	4.5	54%	46%	45%	48%	13%	.29
OSU Defense	13	11.2	8.7	35.8%	2.69	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	35%	37%	15%	.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Defense	13	20.8	21.5	36.8%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	35%	39%	19%	.15
OSU Offense	13	30.5	38.3	46.6%	4.21	1	21	408	139	269	4.2	48%	51%	45%	49%	14%	.31

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri	13	30:24	21.5	43%	73%	7.2	54.2	0.7	1.5	6.1	2.8	1	28.6
Ohio State	13	29:25	20.9	43%	56%	5.7	44.5	1	0.8	4.8	1.7	3	28.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Offense	13	54% (40)	45% (48)	38.2	171.8	4.5	25 (37)	.18 (50)	3.06 (82)	75% (52)	9% (46)	0.97 (84)
OSU Defense	13	51% (85)	35% (12)	-	-	-	-	.04 (18)	3.02 (52)	58% (7)	9% (103)	0.98 (56)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Defense	13	46% (18)	35% (13)	-	-	-	-	.08 (33)	2.74 (17)	71% (56)	13% (11)	1.06 (97)
OSU Offense	13	48% (83)	45% (49)	33.2	138.8	4.2	20 (61)	.15 (72)	3.18 (57)	78% (34)	7% (14)	0.84 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Offense	13	46% (93)	48% (13)	19	28.9	261.2	9	13.7	23 (51)	7 (21)	.44 (18)	1.7 (42)	31% (46)	36% (21)	.46 (29)	5% (16)	2 (69)
OSU Defense	13	49% (62)	37% (17)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.04 (1)	1.4 (2)	33% (51)	26% (21)	.15 (6)	7% (47)	1.8 (13)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Defense	13	54% (118)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.23 (46)	1.6 (58)	36% (21)	25% (15)	.18 (12)	6% (64)	1.9 (19)
OSU Offense	13	51% (49)	49% (12)	19.6	30.8	269.1	8.8	13.7	26 (31)	7 (21)	.5 (10)	1.7 (44)	28% (12)	34% (33)	.48 (23)	7% (95)	2 (99)

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 12.43 #14
Missouri's Offense Rating: 24.36 #15
Missouri's Defense Rating: 7.05 #38
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 23% #30
Missouri's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Missouri's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.8 #12
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 12.43 Ohio State: 25.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 17.8 Ohio State: 26.7

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 25.05 #3
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 25.07 #13
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -0.66 #6
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 85 #2
Ohio State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Ohio State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.7 #3
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #25
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.8 #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 36.3
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.5

Missouri's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 33
Missouri 23

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 43
Missouri 27

Total Points: 70

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 28
Missouri 22

Total Points: 50

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 11.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.7

Ohio State's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 2
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 2
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/29	Ohio State	3	Missouri	14	Ohio State -4.0	Missouri	51.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio State	0	0	0 Overs
Missouri	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Missouri Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Cotton Bowl	Missouri vs Ohio State	+4.0	51.0	W 14 - 3
2022	Gasparilla Bowl	Missouri vs Wake Forest	+3.0	59.0	L 17 - 27
2021	Forces Bowl	Missouri vs Army	+7.0	54.0	L 22 - 24
2018	N/A	Missouri vs Oklahoma State	-9.5	72.5	L 33 - 38
2017	Texas Bowl	Missouri vs Texas	-3.0	62.0	L 16 - 33

Ohio State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Cotton Bowl	Ohio State vs Missouri	-4.0	51.0	L 3 - 14
2022	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Georgia	+5.5	62.0	L 41 - 42
2021	Rose Bowl	Ohio State vs Utah	-4.5	64.5	W 48 - 45
2020	CFP Nat'l Title	Ohio State vs Alabama	+9.5	75.0	L 24 - 52
2020	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Clemson	+7.5	66.5	W 49 - 28
2019	CFP Semifinal	Ohio State vs Clemson	+3.0	63.5	L 23 - 29
2018	Rose Bowl	Ohio State vs Washington	-5.5	55.5	W 28 - 23
2017	N/A	Ohio State vs USC	-9.5	65.5	W 24 - 7

(#14) MIZ at (#3) OSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIZ	OSU
Power RatePwr	#14	#3
SP+SP+	#12	#3
Perf GradeGrade	#19	#7
OffenseOff	#14	#19
DefenseDef	#49	#7
Spec TeamsST	#67	#14
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#30	#2

Missouri on Offense


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	OSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#14	#7
SuccessSuc	#26	#11
ExplosiveExp	#63	#11
PPAPPA	#21	#5
PowerPwr	#15	#6
SP+SP+	#11	#3
Pts POPPO	#22	#5
HavocHav	#24	#85

Missouri Run Game


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#53	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	#48	#12
Run ExplRExp	#84	#56
PPAExp	#50	#18
Run BlockR Blk	#5	-
OL YdsOLY	#82	#52
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#86
TackleTak	-	#6

Missouri Pass Game


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#18	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	#13	#17
Pass ExplPExl	#42	#2
PPAExp	#18	#1
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#36	#12
F7 HavocF7	#46	#103
DB HavocDB	#16	#47

Ohio State on Offense


CategoryCat	OSU Off	MIZ Def
Perf GradePerf	#19	#49
SuccessSuc	#22	#19
ExplosiveExp	#78	#102
PPAPPA	#14	#47
PowerPwr	#13	#38
SP+SP+	#25	#23
Pts POPPO	#36	#81
HavocHav	#29	#19

Ohio State Run Game


CategoryCat	OSU Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	#30	#78
Run SuccessRSuc	#49	#13
Run ExplRExp	#126	#97
PPAExp	#72	#33
Run BlockR Blk	#48	-
OL YdsOLY	#57	#17
Stuff RateStuff	#52	#14
TackleTak	-	#72

Ohio State Pass Game


CategoryCat	OSU Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#56
Pass SuccessPSuc	#12	#30
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#58
PPAExp	#10	#46
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#64	#35
F7 HavocF7	#14	#11
DB HavocDB	#95	#64

Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in AT&T Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 50°

Rematch from Week 1
Ohio State -4.0 (51.0)
Missouri won at Ohio State this year (14-3)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Ohio State in 2023 (14-3)

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brady Cook	243	367	66%	3302	21	6	9.0
Sam Horn	3	6	50%	54	1	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cody Schrader	276	1617	14	5.9	52
Brady Cook	113	319	8	2.8	25
Nathaniel Peat	76	317	3	4.2	19
Luther Burden III	8	38	0	4.8	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luther Burden III	85	1205	9	14.2	56
Theo Wease	48	661	6	13.8	77
Mookie Cooper	36	447	0	12.4	41
Marquis Johnson	13	383	3	29.5	76

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Blake Baker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylon Carlies	64	5	2	2	4
Joseph Charleston	60	1	0	3	4
Ty'Ron Hopper	55	6	3	6	3
Charles Hicks	53	11	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Robinson	43	14	9	6	0
Johnny Walker	43	11	6	9	0
Nyles Gaddy (Tr)	22	4	4	3	0
Ty'Ron Hopper	55	6	3	6	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kris Abrams-Draine	50	3	0	1	12
Daylan Carnell	51	6	3	8	7
Jaylon Carlies	64	5	2	2	4

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (Int) (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kyle McCord	229	348	66%	3170	24	6	9.1
Devin Brown	16	28	57%	217	2	1	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TreVeyon Henderson	156	926	11	5.9	75
DeaMonte Trayanum	85	373	3	4.4	40
Xavier Johnson	28	190	0	6.8	27
Miyan Williams	49	158	3	3.2	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marvin Harrison Jr.	67	1211	14	18.1	75
Cade Stover	41	576	5	14.0	49
Emeka Egbuka	41	514	4	12.5	28
Julian Fleming	26	271	0	10.4	37

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Steele Chambers	83	2	0	1	1
Tommy Eichenberg	80	3	1	4	0
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)	59	1	0	0	5
Cody Simon	57	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Sawyer	48	10	7	3	2
J.T. Tuimoloau	38	7	5	6	2
Tyleik Williams	54	10	3	1	5
Sonny Styles	53	5	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Denzel Burke	24	3	0	8
Josh Proctor	47	4	1	8
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)	59	1	0	5