Bowling Green at Michigan - 2023 Matchup Preview

Bowling Green Falcons at Michigan Wolverines(#23)

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Michigan -40.5 (53.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Michigan 31 - Bowling Green: 6

Falcons (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (14 - 31)
Avg Score : 26 - 24 (25 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 6.4 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MICH 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Michigan -36.5 (SP+ MICH -38)
Projected Score: BGSU: 7 - MICH: 44 (51)
MICH Win prob: 100% | Cover: 49%
BGSU Travel: 62 miles

Wolverines (15 - 0) (9 - 5 - 1)
Coach Jim Harbaugh (77 - 25)
Avg Score : 36 - 10 (36 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12.8 - 2.2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
MICH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Bowling Green at Liberty	+8.5	48.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/9	Bowling Green vs Eastern Illinois	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Bowling Green at Michigan	+40.5	53.5	L 6 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Bowling Green vs Ohio	+13.0	45.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/30	Bowling Green at Georgia Tech	+21.0	49.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	+7.5	43.0	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	Bowling Green at Buffalo	+3.0	44.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Bowling Green vs Akron	-7.0	37.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Bowling Green vs Ball State	-4.5	39.5	W 24 - 21	O	N
Wed 11/8	Bowling Green at Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 49 - 19	O	Y
Tue 11/14	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+9.5	48.5	L 31 - 32	O	Y
Tue 11/21	Bowling Green at Western Michigan	-2.0	54.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Tue 12/26	Bowling Green vs Minnesota	+2.5	45.0	L 24 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Michigan vs East Carolina	-36.0	53.5	W 30 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/9	Michigan vs UNLV	-38.0	57.5	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Michigan vs Bowling Green	-40.5	53.5	W 31 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan vs Rutgers	-24.0	44.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan at Nebraska	-17.0	39.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Michigan at Minnesota	-18.5	46.0	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Michigan vs Indiana	-33.5	45.5	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan at Michigan State	-25.5	47.0	W 49 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Michigan vs Purdue	-32.5	52.5	W 41 - 13	O	N
Sat 11/11	Michigan at Penn State	-4.0	44.5	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Michigan at Maryland	-17.5	50.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Michigan vs Ohio State	-3.0	47.0	W 30 - 24	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Michigan vs Iowa	-23.5	35.0	W 26 - 0	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Michigan vs Alabama	-2.0	46.0	W 27 - 20	O	Y
Mon 1/8	Michigan vs Washington	-5.5	55.5	W 34 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#74 (.18)	41% (81)	26.2	45% (46)	3.06 (81)	137	39% (98)	189	3.65 (87)	#44 (.15)	42% (63)	24	48% (119)	36% (11)	3.71 (62)	60.9	1.5	2.2
MICH	#11 (.33)	50% (7)	35.9	47% (31)	3.26 (39)	140	56% (2)	190	4.79 (10)	#1 (-.01)	32% (1)	10.4	32% (4)	33% (4)	2.37 (1)	22.8	0.5	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	#53 (.21)	43% (68)		41% (99)	3.01 (74)	134	44% (38)	207	3.84 (77)	#43 (.13)	38% (15)		39% (29)	37% (20)	3.47 (32)	41.1	0.8	1
MICH	#113 (.1)	40% (102)		41% (101)	3 (80)	149	40% (92)	123	4.18 (45)	#40 (.13)	38% (28)		38% (18)	39% (42)	3.48 (36)	36.8	1.5	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	13	26.2	25	41.2%	3.65	1.5	17	326	137	189	4.2	48%	50%	45%	39%	18%	.18
MICH Defense	15	10.4	9.6	32.3%	2.37	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	32%	33%	21%	-.01

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	13	24	23.1	41.6%	3.71	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	48%	36%	17%	.15
MICH Offense	15	35.9	35.7	50.3%	4.79	0.5	18	330	140	190	4.3	56%	44%	47%	56%	11%	.33

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	13	30:30	16.8	33%	60%	6.9	60.9	1.5	2.2	4.9	2.5	3	33.8
Michigan	15	28:25	17.7	47%	79%	2.5	22.8	0.5	1.6	4.9	2.1	4	33.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	13	48% (82)	45% (46)	33	137.4	4.2	22 (51)	.16 (65)	3.06 (81)	80% (18)	13% (121)	1.09 (24)
MICH Defense	15	49% (50)	32% (4)	-	-	-	-	-.09 (1)	2.57 (9)	55% (4)	12% (13)	0.85 (11)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	13	54% (112)	48% (119)	-	-	-	-	.22 (108)	3.28 (105)	80% (110)	10% (67)	0.95 (41)
MICH Offense	15	56% (25)	47% (31)	32.9	140.2	4.3	35 (5)	.19 (45)	3.26 (39)	76% (46)	7% (7)	0.91 (107)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	13	50% (60)	39% (98)	16.5	27.5	188.8	6.9	11.5	17 (85)	14 (107)	.27 (72)	1.7 (35)	36% (127)	31% (67)	.29 (82)	6% (54)	2 (82)
MICH Defense	15	50% (79)	33% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.09 (7)	1.6 (67)	36% (19)	25% (16)	.07 (1)	9% (3)	1.7 (3)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	13	44% (17)	36% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.21 (35)	1.7 (111)	33% (46)	28% (38)	.32 (71)	7% (21)	2.1 (72)
MICH Offense	15	44% (105)	56% (2)	15.5	21	189.6	9	12.2	21 (65)	5 (6)	.55 (5)	1.5 (89)	28% (11)	38% (11)	.52 (16)	4% (12)	2 (77)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -3.52 #85
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Bowling Green's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40
Bowling Green's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -3.52 Michigan: 31.905

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -5.9 Michigan: 32.1

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 31.905 #1
Michigan's Offense Rating: 24.97 #14
Michigan's Defense Rating: -5.85 #1
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 51 #16
Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 12.80 - 2.20
Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.1 #1
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #10
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 7.4 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 25
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.1

Bowling Green's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan 44
Bowling Green 7

Total Points: 51

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 35.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.7
Defense: 10.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 9.6

Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 15 - 0
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 1
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	Michigan	31	Bowling Green	6	Michigan	Michigan -40.5	Bowling Green	53.5	Under
2010	09/25	Michigan	65	Bowling Green	21	Michigan
2000	09/01	Michigan	42	Bowling Green	7	Michigan

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan	3	0	0 Overs
Bowling Green	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#85) Bowling Green Info
Power Rating: -3.52 #85
Offense Rating: 13.75 #91
Defense Rating: 6.57 #36
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.9 #84
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #86
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 6.60 - 6.40

Bowling Green has won 1 straight
Bowling Green has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 3 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Bowling Green Highlights
Bowling Green offense is explosive (#128)
Bowling Green Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Bowling Green has a good pass defense (#58)
Bowling Green Secondary is very good (#125)
Bowling Green defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Bowling Green Deficiencies
Bowling Green Commits a Lot of Penalties (#95)
Bowling Green throws a Lot of Interceptions (#1)
Bowling Green offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Bowling Green Does Not Stuff Runs (#30)
Bowling Green has a bad defensive line (#31)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	MICH	BGSU
OverallOver	#1	#69
OffenseOff	#6	#91
DefenseDef	#1	#38
Special TeamsST	#27	#48
PassingPass	#10	#101
RushingRush	#36	#24
Run BlockRBLK	#9	#84
Pass BlockPBLK	#44	#111
Route RunningWR Rt	#6	#50
TacklingTkl	#2	#21
Run DefenseR Def	#2	#88
Pass Rush DefPRush	#2	#24
Coverage DefCov	#1	#9

Rematch from Week 3
Michigan -40.5 (53.5)
Michigan won vs Bowling Green this year (31-6)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Bowling Green in 2023 (31-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: BGSU | MICH
Depth Chart: BGSU | MICH
Rosters: BGSU | MICH

(#1) Michigan Info
Power Rating: 31.905 #1
Offense Rating: 24.97 #14
Defense Rating: -5.85 #1
Overall SP+ Rating: 32.1 #1
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #10
Defense SP+ Rating: 7.4 #1
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 51 #16
Expected Record: 12.80 - 2.20

Michigan has won 2 straight
Michigan has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 7 - 0 (2 - 4 - 1 vs Spread)

Michigan Highlights
Michigan in Undefeated
Michigan is Undefeated at Home

Michigan offense is efficent (#99)
Michigan offense is good in red zone (#37)
Michigan offense is good on 3rd downs
Michigan does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#16)

Michigan has a really good defense (#65)
Michigan defense is really good in red zone (#89)
Michigan has a good run defense (#59)
Michigan has a good pass defense (#70)
Michigan Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#85)
Michigan Defensive Line is very good (#68)
Michigan Front 7 is disruptive (#38)
Michigan Secondary is very good (#34)
Michigan has a great TO Margin (#28)
Michigan commits very few Penalties (#49)
Michigan defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

Michigan Deficiencies
Michigan offense is not Explosive (#10)

Bowling Green's OC Greg Nosal

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Connor Bazelak (Tr)	168	277	61%	1935	12	7	7.0
Camden Orth	39	68	57%	486	5	5	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terion Stewart	125	762	8	6.1	54
Taron Keith	66	390	4	5.9	40
Camden Orth	67	208	5	3.1	18
Jaison Patterson	35	128	1	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Harold Fannin	44	623	6	14.2	56
Odieu Hilaire	45	532	4	11.8	46
Taron Keith	44	457	3	10.4	58
Austin Osborne	29	302	0	10.4	42

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

Bowling Green's DC Sammy Lawanson

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Joseph Sipp Jr.	73	4	0	1	0
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cashius Howell	27	11	10	5	1
Darren Anders (Tr)	85	11	5	1	2
Jordan Porter	18	4	3	1	1
Dierre Kelly	20	4	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Huskey	52	1	0	0	6
Davon Ferguson	50	8	3	1	6
Jordan Oladokun	30	1	0	0	5

Michigan's OC Sherrone Moore

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
J.J. McCarthy	240	332	72%	2991	22	4	9.0
Jack Tuttle (Tr)	15	17	88%	130	1	0	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Corum	258	1245	27	4.8	59
Donovan Edwards	119	497	5	4.2	46
Kalel Mullings	36	222	1	6.2	23
J.J. McCarthy	64	202	3	3.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roman Wilson	48	789	12	16.4	47
Colston Loveland	45	649	4	14.4	54
Cornelius Johnson	47	604	1	12.9	50
Donovan Edwards	30	249	0	8.3	37

View Michigan's Full Roster

Michigan's DC Jesse Minter

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Junior Colson	89	2	0	2	2
Michael Barrett	61	4	3	5	2
Ernest Hausmann (Tr)	44	2	0	0	0
Makari Paige	38	0	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Harrell	30	10	8	5	1
Josaiah Stewart (Tr)	33	9	6	3	2
Derrick Moore	34	6	5	4	2
Braiden McGregor	26	9	5	7	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mike Sainristil	36	5	2	3	6
Will Johnson	0	0	0	0	4
Josh Wallace (Tr)	28	2	0	0	4