Alabama at Auburn - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#10)Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Alabama -14.0 (48.0) (-700) Open: -13.0 | 49.0
Alabama 27 - Auburn: 24 (SEC)

Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 34 - 19 (32 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AUB 2nd straight Home Game
AUB is playing their 7th straight game
ALA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Alabama -10.5 (SP+ ALA -15.5)
Projected Score: ALA: 31 - AUB: 20 (51)
ALA Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
ALA Travel: 127 miles

Tigers (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 23 (29 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#54)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ALA Players
AUB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Alabama vs Middle Tennessee	-39.5	52.0	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Alabama vs Texas	-7.0	53.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	Alabama at South Florida	-34.0	61.0	W 17 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/23	Alabama vs Ole Miss	-7.0	56.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Alabama at Mississippi State	-16.5	45.0	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Alabama at Texas A&M	-2.5	45.0	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Alabama vs Arkansas	-19.0	45.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/21	Alabama vs Tennessee	-8.5	47.5	W 34 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Alabama vs LSU	-3.0	61.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Alabama at Kentucky	-10.0	45.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Alabama vs Chattanooga	-44.5	54.5	W 66 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Alabama at Auburn	-14.0	48.0	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 12/2	Alabama vs Georgia	+5.0	56.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Alabama vs Michigan	+2.0	46.0	L 20 - 27	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule

Auburn's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Auburn vs Massachusetts	-35.0	52.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Auburn at California	-5.0	55.5	W 14 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/16	Auburn vs Samford	-37.5	62.0	W 45 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/23	Auburn at Texas A&M	+9.5	51.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/30	Auburn vs Georgia	+14.0	44.5	L 20 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Auburn at LSU	+11.0	60.0	L 18 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	Auburn vs Ole Miss	+6.5	55.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	Auburn vs Mississippi State	-6.5	40.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Auburn at Vanderbilt	-12.5	50.0	W 31 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Auburn at Arkansas	+2.5	46.5	W 48 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Auburn vs New Mexico State	-25.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/25	Auburn vs Alabama	+14.0	48.0	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/30	Auburn vs Maryland	-4.0	47.5	L 13 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA	#20 (.29)	45% (39)	34	45% (43)	3.23 (45)	160	45% (34)	212	4.59 (17)	#26 (.11)	36% (12)	19	38% (28)	34% (6)	3.86 (73)	45.7	0.7	1.3
AUB	#93 (.14)	41% (80)	26.2	45% (44)	3.01 (86)	189	37% (110)	162	3.99 (58)	#48 (.15)	40% (42)	22.6	43% (72)	37% (20)	3.65 (56)	43.8	1.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA	#44 (.23)	45% (34)		45% (52)	2.75 (112)	169	45% (31)	222	4.71 (8)	#8 (.05)	37% (12)		38% (15)	37% (19)	2.85 (5)	66.3	1.4	2.1
AUB	#42 (.24)	45% (40)		48% (21)	3.32 (23)	166	42% (67)	264	3.42 (110)	#21 (.09)	38% (20)		38% (19)	38% (34)	3.35 (25)	49.3	1.8	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Offense	14	34	31.8	45%	4.59	0.7	19	373	160	212	4.3	57%	43%	45%	45%	15%	.29
AUB Defense	13	22.6	21.9	40%	3.65	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	43%	37%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Defense	14	19	17	35.8%	3.86	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	34%	19%	.11
AUB Offense	13	26.2	29.4	41.3%	3.99	1.5	19	351	189	162	4.8	56%	43%	45%	37%	16%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Alabama	14	28:25	18.6	47%	83%	5.4	45.7	0.7	1.3	5.9	2.8	2	30.6
Auburn	13	29:03	18.5	33%	50%	5.5	43.8	1.5	1.4	5.5	2.1	2	29.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Offense	14	57% (18)	45% (43)	37	160.4	4.3	30 (21)	.21 (39)	3.23 (45)	81% (13)	11% (91)	0.98 (79)
AUB Defense	13	52% (103)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.13 (63)	2.95 (40)	86% (126)	10% (57)	0.94 (39)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Defense	14	48% (40)	38% (28)	-	-	-	-	.15 (71)	3.13 (74)	67% (36)	12% (21)	1.12 (114)
AUB Offense	13	56% (20)	45% (44)	39.5	189	4.8	22 (51)	.19 (47)	3.01 (86)	74% (69)	11% (85)	1.02 (58)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Offense	14	43% (115)	45% (34)	13.7	21.6	212.1	9.8	15.5	23 (51)	6 (14)	.44 (20)	1.9 (8)	31% (50)	34% (39)	.55 (11)	4% (6)	2.6 (1)
AUB Defense	13	47% (30)	37% (20)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (33)	1.8 (125)	35% (22)	31% (79)	.29 (57)	7% (49)	2.2 (97)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Defense	14	52% (98)	34% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.11 (9)	1.5 (42)	35% (29)	26% (18)	.23 (25)	7% (37)	2.1 (71)
AUB Offense	13	43% (114)	37% (110)	14.5	24.4	162.2	6.7	11.2	18 (81)	13 (97)	.12 (120)	1.6 (74)	32% (76)	25% (117)	.14 (121)	5% (41)	1.9 (112)

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 16.78 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90% #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 16.78 Auburn: 9.69

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 23.7 Auburn: 8.1

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 9.69 #32
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Auburn's Defense Rating: 7.76 #44
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #15
Auburn's 2023 Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70
Auburn's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.8
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 31
Auburn 20

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Alabama 34
Auburn 22

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Alabama 27
Auburn 23

Total Points: 50

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.4
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.9

Auburn's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Auburn	20	Alabama	27	Alabama -6.5	Alabama	48.5	Under
2024	11/30	Alabama	28	Auburn	14	Alabama -10.5	Alabama	50.5	Under
2023	11/25	Auburn	24	Alabama	27	Alabama -14.0	Auburn	48.0	Over
2022	11/26	Alabama	49	Auburn	27	Alabama -22	Push	51.0	Over
2021	11/27	Auburn	22	Alabama	24	Alabama -21	Auburn	57.5	Under
2020	11/28	Alabama	42	Auburn	13	Alabama -24.5	Alabama	65.0	Under
2019	11/30	Auburn	48	Alabama	45	Alabama -3.5	Auburn	51.0	Over
2018	11/24	Alabama	52	Auburn	21	Alabama -26	Alabama	53.0	Over
2017	11/25	Auburn	26	Alabama	14	Alabama -5	Auburn	47.5	Under
2016	11/26	Alabama	30	Auburn	12	Alabama -20	Auburn	47.0	Under
2015	11/28	Auburn	13	Alabama	29	Alabama -13	Alabama	47.5	Under
2014	11/29	Alabama	55	Auburn	44	Alabama -7	Alabama	0
2013	11/30	Auburn	34	Alabama	28	Alabama -9.5	Auburn	0
2012	11/24	Alabama	49	Auburn	0
2011	11/26	Auburn	14	Alabama	42
2010	11/26	Alabama	27	Auburn	28
2009	11/27	Auburn	21	Alabama	26
2008	11/29	Alabama	36	Auburn	0
2007	11/24	Auburn	17	Alabama	10
2006	11/18	Alabama	15	Auburn	22
2005	11/19	Auburn	28	Alabama	18
2004	11/20	Alabama	13	Auburn	21
2003	11/22	Auburn	28	Alabama	23
2001	11/17	Auburn	7	Alabama	31
2000	11/17	Alabama	0	Auburn	9

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Auburn	10	6	4 Overs
Alabama	15	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 11	9 - 3	4 - 1	5 - 2
Road Teams	11 - 14	3 - 9	2 - 5	1 - 4

(#9) ALA at (#32) AUB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ALA	AUB
Power RatePwr	#9	#32
SP+SP+	#7	#36
Perf GradeGrade	#3	#47
OffenseOff	#10	#94
DefenseDef	#6	#18
Spec TeamsST	#3	#46
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#1	#15

Alabama Injury Report

Auburn Injury Report

Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	ALA Off	AUB Def
Perf GradePerf	#10	#18
SuccessSuc	#39	#42
ExplosiveExp	#23	#84
PPAPPA	#20	#48
PowerPwr	#25	#44
SP+SP+	#11	#24
Pts POPPO	#17	#56
HavocHav	#51	#51

Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	#15	#21
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#72
Run ExplRExp	#79	#39
PPAExp	#39	#63
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	#45	#40
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#51
TackleTak	-	#21

Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#34	#20
Pass ExplPExl	#8	#125
PPAExp	#20	#33
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#43	#81
F7 HavocF7	#91	#57
DB HavocDB	#6	#49

Auburn on Offense


CategoryCat	AUB Off	ALA Def
Perf GradePerf	#94	#6
SuccessSuc	#80	#12
ExplosiveExp	#100	#87
PPAPPA	#93	#26
PowerPwr	#70	#21
SP+SP+	#65	#9
Pts POPPO	#58	#73
HavocHav	#70	#16

Auburn Run Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#46	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#44	#28
Run ExplRExp	#58	#114
PPAExp	#47	#71
Run BlockR Blk	#64	-
OL YdsOLY	#86	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#94	#108
TackleTak	-	#7

Auburn Pass Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#91	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	#110	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#74	#42
PPAExp	#120	#9
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#64	#13
F7 HavocF7	#85	#21
DB HavocDB	#41	#37

Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 62°

Rematch from Week 13
Alabama 14.0 (48.0)
Alabama won at Auburn this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Auburn last year (28-14)
Alabama beat Auburn in 2023 (27-24)
Alabama beat Auburn in 2022 (49-27)

ALA's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Milroe	187	284	66%	2834	23	6	10.0
Ty Simpson	11	20	55%	179	0	0	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jase McClellan	180	890	8	4.9	34
Roydell Williams	111	560	5	5.0	48
Jalen Milroe	161	531	12	3.3	53
Jamarion Miller	41	201	1	4.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jermaine Burton	39	798	8	20.5	68
Isaiah Bond	48	668	4	13.9	52
Amari Niblack	20	327	4	16.4	39
Kobe Prentice	18	314	2	17.4	79

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kevin Steele (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Downs	107	4	0	0	3
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4
Jihaad Campbell	66	4	1	3	3
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Turner	53	16	11	13	1
Chris Braswell	42	11	8	5	1
Justin Eboigbe	63	12	7	4	1
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12
Kool-Aid McKinstry	32	2	0	0	7
Trey Amos (Tr)	12	1	0	1	5

AUB's OC Philip Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Payton Thorne (Tr)	162	265	61%	1755	16	10	6.6
Robby Ashford	14	27	52%	145	2	2	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jarquez Hunter	159	909	7	5.7	67
Payton Thorne (Tr)	134	515	3	3.8	61
Damari Alston	64	320	2	5.0	56
Brian Battie (Tr)	51	227	1	4.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rivaldo Fairweather (Tr)	38	394	6	10.4	53
Ja'Varrius Johnson	19	347	3	18.3	45
Jay Fair	31	324	2	10.5	36
Caleb Burton (Tr)	16	226	0	14.1	53

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eugene Asante	86	9	5	5	1
Jalen McLeod (Tr)	50	11	6	5	1
Larry Nixon III (Tr)	50	3	0	2	0
Keionte Scott	42	2	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcus Harris	40	11	7	1	1
Jalen McLeod (Tr)	50	11	6	5	1
Eugene Asante	86	9	5	5	1
Cam Riley	31	4	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
D.J. James	38	4	0	9
Kayin Lee	19	2	1	6
Keionte Scott	42	2	2	5