Middle Tennessee at Alabama - 2023 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Alabama Crimson Tide

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Alabama -39.5 (52.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Alabama 56 - Middle Tennessee: 7

Blue Raiders (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Rick Stockstill (110 - 105)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#98)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Alabama -31 (SP+ ALA -33)
Projected Score: MTSU: 10 - ALA: 41 (52)
ALA Win prob: 100% | Cover: 45%
MTSU Travel: 195 miles

Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
ALA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Middle Tennessee at Alabama	+39.5	52.0	L 7 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/9	Middle Tennessee at Missouri	+21.0	47.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Middle Tennessee vs Murray State	-34.5	51.0	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Middle Tennessee vs Colorado State	-3.5	50.0	L 23 - 31	O	N
Thu 9/28	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+6.5	61.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Wed 10/4	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	-2.5	52.0	L 30 - 45	O	N
Tue 10/10	Middle Tennessee vs Louisiana Tech	-3.0	53.5	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Tue 10/17	Middle Tennessee at Liberty	+16.0	56.5	L 35 - 42	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.0	55.5	L 7 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-10.5	50.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Middle Tennessee vs UTEP	-8.5	48.5	W 34 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston	-3.5	49.5	L 20 - 23	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Alabama vs Middle Tennessee	-39.5	52.0	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Alabama vs Texas	-7.0	53.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	Alabama at South Florida	-34.0	61.0	W 17 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/23	Alabama vs Ole Miss	-7.0	56.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Alabama at Mississippi State	-16.5	45.0	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Alabama at Texas A&M	-2.5	45.0	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Alabama vs Arkansas	-19.0	45.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/21	Alabama vs Tennessee	-8.5	47.5	W 34 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Alabama vs LSU	-3.0	61.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Alabama at Kentucky	-10.0	45.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Alabama vs Chattanooga	-44.5	54.5	W 66 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Alabama at Auburn	-14.0	48.0	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 12/2	Alabama vs Georgia	+5.0	56.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Alabama vs Michigan	+2.0	46.0	L 20 - 27	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	.14	40%	22.4	40%	2.69	109	41%	265	3.45	.1	41%	30.9	40%	43%	3.63	58.8	1.4	2.8
ALA	.33	47%	29.5	46%	2.95	196	48%	282	4.78	.06	39%	19.2	42%	36%	3.49	68.7	1.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ALA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	13	22.4	20.8	40.3%	3.45	1.4	20	374	109	265	3.2	40%	59%	40%	41%	18%	.14
ALA Defense	13	19.2	11.4	38.9%	3.49	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	36%	18%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	13	30.9	29.3	40.9%	3.63	2.8	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	40%	43%	20%	.1
ALA Offense	13	29.5	39.3	46.9%	4.78	1.2	24	477	196	282	5.6	44%	56%	46%	48%	13%	.33

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	13	28:42	20.2	34%	58%	6.6	58.8	1.4	2.8	6.4	2.7	6	31.8
Alabama	13	29:54	23.8	46%	60%	7.9	68.7	1.2	1.2	6.5	2.9	3	31.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	13	40%	40%	34.7	109.5	3.2	20	.1	2.69	76%	12%	1
ALA Defense	13	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.85	68%	11%	0.94

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	13	41%	40%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.64	55%	10%	0.95
ALA Offense	13	44%	46%	35.2	195.7	5.6	26	.23	2.95	73%	9%	1.09

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	13	59%	41%	26.2	39.4	264.8	6.7	10.1	21	11	.21	1.5	33%	32%	.33	5%	1.9
ALA Defense	13	53%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.06	1.4	33%	26%	.14	7%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	13	58%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	20	.25	1.6	33%	35%	.36	9%	2
ALA Offense	13	56%	48%	21.5	33.7	281.5	8.4	13.1	37	8	.4	1.7	30%	40%	.68	4%	2.4

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -7.24 #101
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 12.27 #109
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 9.72 #69
2023 Talent Rating: 487.98 #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 5.10 - 6.90
Middle Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #100
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #89

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -7.24 Alabama: 22.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -9.4 Alabama: 23.7

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 22.74 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 1015.43 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90 #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 41
Middle Tennessee 10

Projected Total Points: 52

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/02	Alabama	56	Middle Tennessee	7	Alabama -39.5	Alabama	52.0	Over
2015	09/12	Alabama	37	Middle Tennessee	10	Alabama -34	Middle Tennessee	56.5	Under
2005	09/03	Alabama	26	Middle Tennessee	7
2002	08/31	Alabama	39	Middle Tennessee	34

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Alabama	4	1	1 Overs
Middle Tennessee	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 4	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#101) MTSU at (#9) ALA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	ALA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#101	#9
SP+SP+	#100	#7
Perf GradeGrade	#125	#3
OffenseOff	#122	#10
DefenseDef	#107	#6
Spec TeamsST	#43	#3
TalentTal	#90	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#1

Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Alabama Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	ALA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#6
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#109	#21
SP+SP+	#92	#9
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Middle Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#96	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#135	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#7

Middle Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	MTSU Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#56	#13
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#107
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#25	#69
SP+SP+	#11	#89
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#93

Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#100
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#43	#78
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'23 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Alabama -39.5 (52.0)
Alabama won vs Middle Tennessee this year (56-7)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (56-7)

MTSU's OC Mitch Stewart (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	286	428	67%	3087	23	13	7.2
DJ Riles	7	8	88%	78	0	0	9.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaiden Credle (Tr)	89	427	2	4.8	71
Nick Vattiato	139	402	2	2.9	30
Frank Peasant	82	306	4	3.7	37
Terry Wilkins	18	146	1	8.1	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Holden Willis (Tr)	46	697	5	15.2	62
Elijah Metcalf	54	634	6	11.7	71
Justin Olson (Tr)	43	450	1	10.5	42
DJ England-Chisolm	28	347	3	12.4	72

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Scott Shafer (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Jakobe Thomas	71	3	0	0	5
Tra Fluellen	64	3	0	1	3
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sam Brumfield	82	7	4	8	0
Richard Kinley	20	7	3	3	3
Zaylin Wood	16	4	3	2	2
Parker Hughes	53	7	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quindarius Dunnigan	34	9	2	5	8
Tyrell Raby (Tr)	29	0	0	0	6
De'Arre McDonald	18	4	1	0	6

ALA's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Milroe	187	284	66%	2834	23	6	10.0
Ty Simpson	11	20	55%	179	0	0	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jase McClellan	180	890	8	4.9	34
Roydell Williams	111	560	5	5.0	48
Jalen Milroe	161	531	12	3.3	53
Jamarion Miller	41	201	1	4.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jermaine Burton	39	798	8	20.5	68
Isaiah Bond	48	668	4	13.9	52
Amari Niblack	20	327	4	16.4	39
Kobe Prentice	18	314	2	17.4	79

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kevin Steele (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Downs	107	4	0	0	3
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4
Jihaad Campbell	66	4	1	3	3
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Turner	53	16	11	13	1
Chris Braswell	42	11	8	5	1
Justin Eboigbe	63	12	7	4	1
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12
Kool-Aid McKinstry	32	2	0	0	7
Trey Amos (Tr)	12	1	0	1	5