Michigan at Penn State - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#21)Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Michigan -4.0 (44.5) (-220) Open: -3.0 | 43.5
Michigan 24 - Penn State: 15 (Big Ten)

Wolverines (15 - 0) (9 - 5 - 1)
Coach Jim Harbaugh (77 - 25)
Avg Score : 36 - 10 (40 - 11 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12.8 - 2.2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Michigan -3.5 (SP+ MICH -6)
Projected Score: MICH: 26 - PSU: 23 (49)
MICH Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MICH Travel: 321 miles

Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 36 - 14 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MICH Players
PSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Michigan vs East Carolina	-36.0	53.5	W 30 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/9	Michigan vs UNLV	-38.0	57.5	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Michigan vs Bowling Green	-40.5	53.5	W 31 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan vs Rutgers	-24.0	44.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan at Nebraska	-17.0	39.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Michigan at Minnesota	-18.5	46.0	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Michigan vs Indiana	-33.5	45.5	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan at Michigan State	-25.5	47.0	W 49 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Michigan vs Purdue	-32.5	52.5	W 41 - 13	O	N
Sat 11/11	Michigan at Penn State	-4.0	44.5	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Michigan at Maryland	-17.5	50.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Michigan vs Ohio State	-3.0	47.0	W 30 - 24	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Michigan vs Iowa	-23.5	35.0	W 26 - 0	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Michigan vs Alabama	-2.0	46.0	W 27 - 20	O	Y
Mon 1/8	Michigan vs Washington	-5.5	55.5	W 34 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Penn State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Penn State vs West Virginia	-21.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Penn State vs Delaware	-44.0	55.0	W 63 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Penn State at Illinois	-14.0	47.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Penn State vs Iowa	-14.0	38.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Penn State at Northwestern	-27.0	48.0	W 41 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Penn State vs Massachusetts	-42.0	55.0	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Penn State at Ohio State	+4.0	47.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/28	Penn State vs Indiana	-31.0	45.0	W 33 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/4	Penn State at Maryland	-8.5	50.5	W 51 - 15	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Penn State vs Michigan	+4.0	44.5	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Penn State vs Rutgers	-19.5	39.5	W 27 - 6	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Penn State vs Michigan State	-20.0	42.0	W 42 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Penn State vs Ole Miss	-5.5	53.0	L 25 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MICH	#11 (.33)	50% (7)	35.9	47% (31)	3.26 (39)	140	56% (2)	190	4.79 (10)	#1 (-.01)	32% (1)	10.4	32% (4)	33% (4)	2.37 (1)	22.8	0.5	1.6
PSU	#40 (.25)	46% (25)	36.2	49% (17)	3.38 (14)	185	43% (53)	215	4.96 (5)	#8 (.04)	33% (3)	13.5	31% (3)	36% (10)	3.09 (15)	43.3	0.6	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MICH	#113 (.1)	40% (102)		41% (101)	3 (80)	149	40% (92)	123	4.18 (45)	#40 (.13)	38% (28)		38% (18)	39% (42)	3.48 (36)	36.8	1.5	1.2
PSU	#11 (.32)	51% (4)		52% (9)	3.42 (10)	176	51% (4)	209	4.69 (9)	#9 (.05)	38% (21)		39% (27)	37% (25)	3.22 (18)	41.4	0.8	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MICH Offense	15	35.9	40.2	50.3%	4.79	0.5	18	330	140	190	4.3	56%	44%	47%	56%	11%	.33
PSU Defense	13	13.5	10.9	33.1%	3.09	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	31%	36%	23%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MICH Defense	15	10.4	11.2	32.3%	2.37	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	32%	33%	21%	-.01
PSU Offense	13	36.2	38.6	46.3%	4.96	0.6	23	400	185	215	4.7	50%	49%	49%	43%	11%	.25

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan	15	28:25	17.7	47%	79%	2.5	22.8	0.5	1.6	4.9	2.1	4	33.6
Penn State	13	32:30	22.5	41%	77%	5	43.3	0.6	1.8	7.8	3.8	3	33.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MICH Offense	15	56% (25)	47% (31)	32.9	140.2	4.3	35 (5)	.19 (45)	3.26 (39)	76% (46)	7% (7)	0.91 (107)
PSU Defense	13	49% (52)	31% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (7)	2.23 (2)	76% (89)	18% (1)	0.96 (46)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MICH Defense	15	49% (50)	32% (4)	-	-	-	-	-.09 (1)	2.57 (9)	55% (4)	12% (13)	0.85 (11)
PSU Offense	13	50% (65)	49% (17)	39.6	184.8	4.7	26 (30)	.19 (46)	3.38 (14)	73% (77)	7% (8)	0.85 (123)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MICH Offense	15	44% (105)	56% (2)	15.5	21	189.6	9	12.2	21 (65)	5 (6)	.55 (5)	1.5 (89)	28% (11)	38% (11)	.52 (16)	4% (12)	2 (77)
PSU Defense	13	50% (77)	36% (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (25)	1.7 (94)	39% (2)	26% (19)	.21 (21)	6% (86)	2.1 (74)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MICH Defense	15	50% (79)	33% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.09 (7)	1.6 (67)	36% (19)	25% (16)	.07 (1)	9% (3)	1.7 (3)
PSU Offense	13	49% (63)	43% (53)	18.9	31.7	215	6.8	11.4	30 (16)	2 (1)	.3 (62)	1.5 (115)	27% (9)	35% (23)	.38 (50)	4% (7)	1.7 (129)

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 26.71 #1
Michigan's Offense Rating: 24.97 #14
Michigan's Defense Rating: -5.85 #1
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 51% #16
Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 12.80 - 2.20
Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.1 #1
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #10
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 7.4 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 26.71 Penn State: 25.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 32.1 Penn State: 26.0

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 25.72 #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 57 #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 35.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.2
Defense: 10.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 11.2

Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 15 - 0
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan 26
Penn State 23

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Michigan 31
Penn State 25

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Michigan 25
Penn State 24

Total Points: 49

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 36.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.6
Defense: 13.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 10.9

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/11	Penn State	15	Michigan	24	Michigan -4.0	Michigan	44.5	Under
2022	10/15	Michigan	41	Penn State	17	Michigan -7	Michigan	49.0	Over
2021	11/13	Penn State	17	Michigan	21	Michigan -2.5	Michigan	48.0	Under
2020	11/28	Michigan	17	Penn State	27	Michigan -1.0	Penn State	56.0	Under
2019	10/19	Penn State	28	Michigan	21	Penn State -7.5	Michigan	47.0	Over
2018	11/03	Michigan	42	Penn State	7	Michigan -13.5	Michigan	48.0	Over
2017	10/21	Penn State	42	Michigan	13	Penn State -7.5	Penn State	42.5	Over
2016	09/24	Michigan	49	Penn State	10	Michigan -15.5	Michigan	56.0	Over
2015	11/21	Penn State	16	Michigan	28	Michigan -5	Michigan	43.0	Over
2014	10/11	Michigan	18	Penn State	13	Penn State -2	Michigan	0
2013	10/12	Penn State	43	Michigan	40	Michigan -1	Penn State	0
2010	10/30	Penn State	41	Michigan	31
2009	10/24	Michigan	10	Penn State	35
2008	10/18	Penn State	46	Michigan	17
2007	09/22	Michigan	14	Penn State	9
2006	10/14	Penn State	10	Michigan	17
2005	10/15	Michigan	27	Penn State	25
2002	10/12	Michigan	27	Penn State	24
2001	10/06	Penn State	0	Michigan	20
2000	11/10	Michigan	33	Penn State	11

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Penn State	7	3	6 Overs
Michigan	13	8	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 7	6 - 5	4 - 2	2 - 3
Road Teams	7 - 13	5 - 6	3 - 2	2 - 4

(#1) MICH at (#5) PSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MICH	PSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#1	#5
SP+SP+	#1	#4
Perf GradeGrade	#1	#6
OffenseOff	#6	#27
DefenseDef	#1	#4
Spec TeamsST	#27	#8
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#16	#13

Michigan Injury Report

Penn State Injury Report

Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	MICH Off	PSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#6	#4
SuccessSuc	#7	#3
ExplosiveExp	#106	#101
PPAPPA	#11	#8
PowerPwr	#14	#2
SP+SP+	#10	#4
Pts POPPO	#10	#15
HavocHav	#6	#2

Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	MICH Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#51	#6
Run SuccessRSuc	#31	#3
Run ExplRExp	#107	#46
PPAExp	#45	#7
Run BlockR Blk	#9	-
OL YdsOLY	#39	#2
Stuff RateStuff	#6	#3
TackleTak	-	#34

Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	MICH Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#11	#19
Pass SuccessPSuc	#2	#10
Pass ExplPExl	#89	#94
PPAExp	#5	#25
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#51	#1
F7 HavocF7	#7	#1
DB HavocDB	#12	#86

Penn State on Offense


CategoryCat	PSU Off	MICH Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#27	#1
SuccessSuc	#25	#1
ExplosiveExp	#124	#37
PPAPPA	#40	#1
PowerPwr	#31	#1
SP+SP+	#26	#1
Pts POPPO	#5	#1
HavocHav	#4	#6

Penn State Run Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	MICH Def
Run GameRun	#27	#2
Run SuccessRSuc	#17	#4
Run ExplRExp	#123	#11
PPAExp	#46	#1
Run BlockR Blk	#14	-
OL YdsOLY	#14	#9
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#22
TackleTak	-	#2

Penn State Pass Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	MICH Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#1
Pass SuccessPSuc	#53	#4
Pass ExplPExl	#115	#67
PPAExp	#62	#7
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#60	#3
F7 HavocF7	#8	#13
DB HavocDB	#7	#3

Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 49° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Michigan 4.0 (44.5)
Michigan won at Penn State this year (24-15)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Penn State in 2023 (24-15)
Michigan beat Penn State in 2022 (41-17)

MICH's OC Sherrone Moore (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
J.J. McCarthy	240	332	72%	2991	22	4	9.0
Jack Tuttle (Tr)	15	17	88%	130	1	0	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Corum	258	1245	27	4.8	59
Donovan Edwards	119	497	5	4.2	46
Kalel Mullings	36	222	1	6.2	23
J.J. McCarthy	64	202	3	3.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roman Wilson	48	789	12	16.4	47
Colston Loveland	45	649	4	14.4	54
Cornelius Johnson	47	604	1	12.9	50
Donovan Edwards	30	249	0	8.3	37

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Jesse Minter (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Junior Colson	89	2	0	2	2
Michael Barrett	61	4	3	5	2
Ernest Hausmann (Tr)	44	2	0	0	0
Makari Paige	38	0	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Harrell	30	10	8	5	1
Josaiah Stewart (Tr)	33	9	6	3	2
Derrick Moore	34	6	5	4	2
Braiden McGregor	26	9	5	7	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mike Sainristil	36	5	2	3	6
Will Johnson	0	0	0	0	4
Josh Wallace (Tr)	28	2	0	0	4

PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Allar	233	388	60%	2631	25	2	6.8
Beau Pribula	11	21	52%	149	4	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaytron Allen	172	902	6	5.2	50
Nicholas Singleton	171	752	8	4.4	24
Beau Pribula	56	329	6	5.9	39
Drew Allar	74	210	4	2.8	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keandre Lambert	53	673	4	12.7	72
Tyler Warren	34	422	7	12.4	75
Theo Johnson	34	341	7	10.0	34
Nicholas Singleton	26	308	2	11.8	53

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Manny Diaz (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kevin Winston Jr.	60	3	0	0	5
Kobe King	59	6	2	1	0
Curtis Jacobs	50	9	3	5	0
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Adisa Isaac	37	16	8	4	0
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5
John Dixon	26	6	5	0	3
Demeioun Robinson	15	8	4	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daequan Hardy	22	3	1	0	7
Kevin Winston Jr.	60	3	0	0	5
Abdul Carter	49	6	5	5	5