Michigan at Penn State - 2023 Matchup Preview
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Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State logo
Saturday, November 11th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Michigan -4.0 (44.5) (-220)  Open: -3.0 | 43.5
Michigan 24 - Penn State: 15  (Big Ten)

 
Wolverines (15 - 0) (9 - 5 - 1)
Coach Jim Harbaugh (77 - 25)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12.8 - 2.2 (#1)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
PSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Michigan -3.5  (SP+ MICH -6)
Projected Score: MICH: 25 - PSU: 22 (47)
MICH Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MICH Travel: 321 miles
Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (34 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Michigan's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Michigan vs East Carolina-36.053.5W 30 - 3UN
Sat 9/9 Michigan vs UNLV-38.057.5W 35 - 7UN
Sat 9/16 Michigan vs Bowling Green-40.553.5W 31 - 6UN
Sat 9/23 Michigan vs Rutgers-24.044.5W 31 - 7UN
Sat 9/30 Michigan at Nebraska-17.039.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 10/7 Michigan at Minnesota-18.546.0W 52 - 10OY
Sat 10/14 Michigan vs Indiana-33.545.5W 52 - 7OY
Sat 10/21 Michigan at Michigan State-25.547.0W 49 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Michigan vs Purdue-32.552.5W 41 - 13ON
Sat 11/11 Michigan at Penn State-4.044.5W 24 - 15UY
Sat 11/18 Michigan at Maryland-17.550.5W 31 - 24ON
Sat 11/25 Michigan vs Ohio State-3.047.0W 30 - 24OY
Sat 12/2 Michigan vs Iowa-23.535.0W 26 - 0UY
Mon 1/1 Michigan vs Alabama-2.046.0W 27 - 20OY
Mon 1/8 Michigan vs Washington-5.555.5W 34 - 13UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Penn State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Penn State vs West Virginia-21.048.0W 38 - 15OY
Sat 9/9 Penn State vs Delaware-44.055.0W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Penn State at Illinois-14.047.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 Penn State vs Iowa-14.038.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/30 Penn State at Northwestern-27.048.0W 41 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Penn State vs Massachusetts-42.055.0W 63 - 0OY
Sat 10/21 Penn State at Ohio State+4.047.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 10/28 Penn State vs Indiana-31.045.0W 33 - 24ON
Sat 11/4 Penn State at Maryland-8.550.5W 51 - 15OY
Sat 11/11 Penn State vs Michigan+4.044.5L 15 - 24UN
Sat 11/18 Penn State vs Rutgers-19.539.5W 27 - 6UY
Fri 11/24 Penn State vs Michigan State-20.042.0W 42 - 0UY
Sat 12/30 Penn State vs Ole Miss-5.553.0L 25 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH.2850%27.552%3.1523948%2204.55.0437%20.438%36%3.4320.71.4
PSU.2643%3141%3.0318146%2534.61.0838%20.543%36%3.3948.31.12.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MICH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Offense1427.526.450%4.550.7234592392205.659%41%52%48%12%.28
PSU Defense1320.515.138.5%3.392.7 - - - - - 41%59%43%36%25%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MICH Defense1420.424.436.7%3.41.4 - - - - - 41%59%38%36%16%.04
PSU Offense13313443.4%4.611.1214341812534.851%49%41%46%13%.26

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan1433:4723.345%86%4.1320.71.44.92.6232.7
Penn State1330:3321.238%70%5.348.31.12.77.83.2230.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Offense1459%52%42.9238.95.641.283.1576%8%1.02
PSU Defense1341%43% - - - - .132.6672%15%0.99
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MICH Defense1441%38% - - - - .022.780%9%0.87
PSU Offense1351%41%37.6181.14.828.183.0375%8%1.17

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Offense1441%48%1726.4219.98.312.9246.311.526%32%.314%1.9
PSU Defense1359%36% - - - - - - 14.061.537%29%.2911%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MICH Defense1459%36% - - - - - - 14.071.434%22%.147%2.2
PSU Offense1349%46%20.832.5252.57.812.2297.341.630%33%.425%2.1

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 26.71  #1
Michigan's Offense Rating: 24.97  #14
Michigan's Defense Rating: -5.85  #1
2023 Talent Rating: 850.43  #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 51%  #16
Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 12.80 - 2.20
Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.1  #1
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6  #10
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 7.4  #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 26.71   Penn State: 25.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 32.1   Penn State: 26.0




Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 25.72  #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10  #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87  #2
2023 Talent Rating: 858.06  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 57  #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0  #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5  #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.4

Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 15 - 0
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 25
Penn State 22

Projected Total Points: 47
Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/11Penn State15Michigan24Michigan -4.0Michigan44.5Under
202210/15Michigan41Penn State17Michigan -7Michigan49.0Over
202111/13Penn State17Michigan21Michigan -2.5Michigan48.0Under
202011/28Michigan17Penn State27Michigan -1.0Penn State56.0Under
201910/19Penn State28Michigan21Penn State -7.5Michigan47.0Over
201811/03Michigan42Penn State7Michigan -13.5Michigan48.0Over
201710/21Penn State42Michigan13Penn State -7.5Penn State42.5Over
201609/24Michigan49Penn State10Michigan -15.5Michigan56.0Over
201511/21Penn State16Michigan28Michigan -5Michigan43.0Over
201410/11Michigan18Penn State13Penn State -2Michigan0
201310/12Penn State43Michigan40Michigan -1Penn State0
201010/30Penn State41Michigan31
200910/24Michigan10Penn State35
200810/18Penn State46Michigan17
200709/22Michigan14Penn State9
200610/14Penn State10Michigan17
200510/15Michigan27Penn State25
200210/12Michigan27Penn State24
200110/06Penn State0Michigan20
200011/10Michigan33Penn State11
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Penn State736 Overs
Michigan1383 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 76 - 54 - 22 - 3
Road Teams7 - 135 - 63 - 22 - 4

(#1) MICH at (#5) PSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMICHPSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #1 #5
SP+SP+ #1 #4
Perf GradeGrade #1 #6
OffenseOff #6 #27
DefenseDef #1 #4
Spec TeamsST #27 #8
TalentTal #14 #13
Blue ChipsBC% #16 #13
Michigan on Offense
CategoryCat
MICH OffPSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #6 #4
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #14 #2
SP+SP+ #10 #4
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Michigan Run Game
CategoryCat
MICH OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #51 #6
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #9 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #34
Michigan Pass Game
CategoryCat
MICH OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #11 #19
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #51 #1
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Penn State on Offense
CategoryCatPSU OffMICH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #1
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #31 #1
SP+SP+ #26 #1
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Penn State Run Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffMICH Def
Run GameRun #27 #2
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #2
Penn State Pass Game
CategoryCatPSU OffMICH Def
Pass GamePass #34 #1
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #60 #3
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 11
Michigan 4.0 (44.5)
Michigan won at Penn State this year (24-15)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Penn State in 2023 (24-15)

  
MICH's OC Sherrone Moore (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
J.J. McCarthy24033272%29912249.0
Jack Tuttle (Tr)151788%130107.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Corum2581245274.859
Donovan Edwards11949754.246
Kalel Mullings3622216.223
J.J. McCarthy6420233.222
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Roman Wilson487891216.447
Colston Loveland45649414.454
Cornelius Johnson47604112.950
Donovan Edwards3024908.337

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Jesse Minter (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Junior Colson892022
Michael Barrett614352
Ernest Hausmann (Tr)442000
Makari Paige380012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Harrell3010851
Josaiah Stewart (Tr)339632
Derrick Moore346542
Braiden McGregor269573
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mike Sainristil365236
Will Johnson00004
Josh Wallace (Tr)282004

PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar23338860%26312526.8
Beau Pribula112152%149407.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen17290265.250
Nicholas Singleton17175284.424
Beau Pribula5632965.939
Drew Allar7421042.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keandre Lambert53673412.772
Tyler Warren34422712.475
Theo Johnson34341710.034
Nicholas Singleton26308211.853

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Manny Diaz (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Kobe King596210
Curtis Jacobs509350
Abdul Carter496555
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adisa Isaac3716840
Abdul Carter496555
John Dixon266503
Demeioun Robinson158451
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daequan Hardy223107
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Abdul Carter496555