Michigan at Penn State Game Matchup

Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Michigan -4.0 (44.5) (-220) Open: -3.0 | 43.5
Michigan 24 - Penn State: 15 (Big Ten)

Wolverines (15 - 0) (9 - 5 - 1)
Coach Jim Harbaugh (77 - 25)
Avg Score : 22 - 20 (13 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12.8 - 2.2 (#1)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Michigan -3.5 (SP+ MICH -6)
Projected Score: MICH: 24 - PSU: 20 (46)
MICH Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MICH Travel: 321 miles

Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MICH Players
PSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Michigan vs East Carolina	-36.0	53.5	W 30 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/9	Michigan vs UNLV	-38.0	57.5	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Michigan vs Bowling Green	-40.5	53.5	W 31 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan vs Rutgers	-24.0	44.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan at Nebraska	-17.0	39.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Michigan at Minnesota	-18.5	46.0	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Michigan vs Indiana	-33.5	45.5	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan at Michigan State	-25.5	47.0	W 49 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Michigan vs Purdue	-32.5	52.5	W 41 - 13	O	N
Sat 11/11	Michigan at Penn State	-4.0	44.5	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Michigan at Maryland	-17.5	50.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Michigan vs Ohio State	-3.0	47.0	W 30 - 24	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Michigan vs Iowa	-23.5	35.0	W 26 - 0	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Michigan vs Alabama	-2.0	46.0	W 27 - 20	O	Y
Mon 1/8	Michigan vs Washington	-5.5	55.5	W 34 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule

Penn State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Penn State vs West Virginia	-21.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Penn State vs Delaware	-44.0	55.0	W 63 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Penn State at Illinois	-14.0	47.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Penn State vs Iowa	-14.0	38.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Penn State at Northwestern	-27.0	48.0	W 41 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Penn State vs Massachusetts	-42.0	55.0	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Penn State at Ohio State	+4.0	47.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/28	Penn State vs Indiana	-31.0	45.0	W 33 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/4	Penn State at Maryland	-8.5	50.5	W 51 - 15	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Penn State vs Michigan	+4.0	44.5	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Penn State vs Rutgers	-19.5	39.5	W 27 - 6	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Penn State vs Michigan State	-20.0	42.0	W 42 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Penn State vs Ole Miss	-5.5	53.0	L 25 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MICH	.28	50%	22	52%	3.15	239	48%	220	4.55	.04	37%	19.9	38%	36%	3.4	32	0.7	1.4
PSU	.26	43%	33.1	41%	3.03	181	46%	253	4.61	.08	38%	16.5	43%	36%	3.39	48.3	1.1	2.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MICH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
PSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MICH Offense	14	22	13	50%	4.55	0.7	23	459	239	220	5.6	59%	41%	52%	48%	12%	.28
PSU Defense	13	16.5	11	38.5%	3.39	2.7	-	-	-	-	-	41%	59%	43%	36%	25%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MICH Defense	14	19.9	19.5	36.7%	3.4	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	41%	59%	38%	36%	16%	.04
PSU Offense	13	33.1	33.5	43.4%	4.61	1.1	21	434	181	253	4.8	51%	49%	41%	46%	13%	.26

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan	14	33:47	23.3	45%	86%	4.1	32	0.7	1.4	4.9	2.6	2	32.7
Penn State	13	30:33	21.2	38%	70%	5.3	48.3	1.1	2.7	7.8	3.2	2	30.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MICH Offense	14	59%	52%	42.9	238.9	5.6	41	.28	3.15	76%	8%	1.02
PSU Defense	13	41%	43%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.66	72%	15%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MICH Defense	14	41%	38%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.7	80%	9%	0.87
PSU Offense	13	51%	41%	37.6	181.1	4.8	28	.18	3.03	75%	8%	1.17

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MICH Offense	14	41%	48%	17	26.4	219.9	8.3	12.9	24	6	.31	1.5	26%	32%	.31	4%	1.9
PSU Defense	13	59%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.06	1.5	37%	29%	.29	11%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MICH Defense	14	59%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.07	1.4	34%	22%	.14	7%	2.2
PSU Offense	13	49%	46%	20.8	32.5	252.5	7.8	12.2	29	7	.34	1.6	30%	33%	.42	5%	2.1

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 26.71 #1
Michigan's Offense Rating: 24.97 #14
Michigan's Defense Rating: -5.85 #1
2023 Talent Rating: 1070.00 #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 51% #16
Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 12.80 - 2.20
Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.1 #1
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #10
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 7.4 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 26.71 Penn State: 25.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan: 32.1 Penn State: 26.0

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 25.72 #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
2023 Talent Rating: 1046.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 57 #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 19.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 15 - 0
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 1
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan 24
Penn State 20

Projected Total Points: 46

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.5
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 11

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/11	Penn State	15	Michigan	24	Michigan	Michigan -4.0	Michigan	44.5	Under
2022	10/15	Michigan	41	Penn State	17	Michigan	Michigan -7	Michigan	49.0	Over
2021	11/13	Penn State	17	Michigan	21	Michigan	Michigan -2.5	Michigan	48.0	Under
2020	11/28	Michigan	17	Penn State	27	Penn State	Michigan -1.0	Penn State	56.0	Under
2019	10/19	Penn State	28	Michigan	21	Penn State	Penn State -7.5	Michigan	47.0	Over
2018	11/03	Michigan	42	Penn State	7	Michigan	Michigan -13.5	Michigan	48.0	Over
2017	10/21	Penn State	42	Michigan	13	Penn State	Penn State -7.5	Penn State	42.5	Over
2016	09/24	Michigan	49	Penn State	10	Michigan	Michigan -15.5	Michigan	56.0	Over
2015	11/21	Penn State	16	Michigan	28	Michigan	Michigan -5	Michigan	43.0	Over
2014	10/11	Michigan	18	Penn State	13	Michigan	Penn State -2	Michigan	0
2013	10/12	Penn State	43	Michigan	40	Penn State	Michigan -1	Penn State	0
2010	10/30	Penn State	41	Michigan	31	Penn State
2009	10/24	Michigan	10	Penn State	35	Penn State
2008	10/18	Penn State	46	Michigan	17	Penn State
2007	09/22	Michigan	14	Penn State	9	Michigan
2006	10/14	Penn State	10	Michigan	17	Michigan
2005	10/15	Michigan	27	Penn State	25	Michigan
2002	10/12	Michigan	27	Penn State	24	Michigan
2001	10/06	Penn State	0	Michigan	20	Michigan
2000	11/10	Michigan	33	Penn State	11	Michigan

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Penn State	7	3	6 Overs
Michigan	13	8	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 7	6 - 5	4 - 2	2 - 3
Road Teams	7 - 13	5 - 6	3 - 2	2 - 4

(#1) Michigan Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 26.71 #1
Offense Rating: 24.97 #14
Defense Rating: -5.85 #1
Overall SP+ Rating: 32.1 #1
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #10
Defense SP+ Rating: 7.4 #1
Talent Rating: 1070.00 #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 51% #16
Expected Record: 12.80 - 2.20

Team Profile

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Michigan Ratings Matchup Penn State

Power #1

Off #14

#31

Def #1

Talent #10

#11

SP+ #1

SP+ Off #10

#26

SP+ Def #1

Rematch from Week 11
Michigan 4.0 (44.5)
Michigan won at Penn State this year (24-15)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Penn State in 2023 (24-15)
Michigan beat Penn State in 2022 (41-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 49° - Wind: 8 mph

Team Information
Injuries: MICH | PSU
Depth Chart: MICH | PSU
Rosters: MICH | PSU

(#5) Penn State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 25.72 #5
Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4
Talent Rating: 1046.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 57 #13
Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70

Team Profile

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Michigan's OC Sherrone Moore

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Tuttle (Tr)	30	50	60%	306	1	2	6.1
Donovan Edwards	1	1	100%	23	1	0	23.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kalel Mullings	185	948	12	5.1	63
Donovan Edwards	128	589	4	4.6	41
C.J. Stokes	7	33	1	4.7	13
Eamonn Dennis	5	30	0	6.0	10

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Colston Loveland	56	582	5	10.4	36
Matthew Hibner	24	368	4	15.3	80
Jake Thaw	41	334	5	8.1	29
Darrius Clemons	25	292	2	11.7	44

View Michigan's Full Roster

Michigan's DC Jesse Minter

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mason Graham	46	7	4	3	1
Makari Paige	45	1	0	0	4
Quinten Johnson	43	1	0	0	5
Keon Sabb	39	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josaiah Stewart (Tr)	33	13	9	7	0
Mason Graham	46	7	4	3	1
Kenneth Grant	32	7	3	3	5
Jerome Nichols	1	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Calhoun	21	1	0	0	9
Quinten Johnson	43	1	0	0	5
Kenneth Grant	32	7	3	3	5

Penn State's OC Mike Yurcich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Warren	3	6	50%	35	1	0	5.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
London Montgomery	71	359	2	5.1	48
Tyler Warren	26	218	4	8.4	48
Cristian Driver	2	9	0	4.5	5
Alex Bacchetta	1	-19	0	-19.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler Warren	104	1233	8	11.9	38
Keandre Lambert	50	981	8	19.6	67
Dante Cephas (Tr)	15	184	0	12.3	35
Malick Meiga	7	117	0	16.7	46

View Penn State's Full Roster

Penn State's DC Manny Diaz

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Kobe King	87	8	3	1	1
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Dvon Ellies	31	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Amin Vanover	21	5	4	3	1
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Kobe King	87	8	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Tyler Elsdon	23	0	0	0	2