Ole Miss at Alabama - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#13)Ole Miss Rebels at Alabama Crimson Tide(#14)

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Alabama -7 (56.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Alabama 24 - Ole Miss: 10 (SEC)

Rebels (11 - 2) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Lane Kiffin (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 35 - 23 (22 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ALA is playing their 4th straight game
MISS is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Alabama -9 (SP+ ALA -8)
Projected Score: MISS: 24 - ALA: 33 (57)
ALA Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MISS Travel: 139 miles

Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 34 - 19 (39 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MISS Players
ALA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ole Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ole Miss vs Mercer	-35.0	59.5	W 73 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Ole Miss at Tulane	-8.0	64.0	W 37 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech	-17.0	61.5	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ole Miss at Alabama	+7.0	56.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ole Miss vs LSU	+3.0	67.0	W 55 - 49	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Ole Miss vs Arkansas	-13.0	61.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Ole Miss at Auburn	-6.5	55.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt	-24.0	62.0	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Ole Miss vs Texas A&M	-3.0	52.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/11	Ole Miss at Georgia	+11.0	59.0	L 17 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/18	Ole Miss vs UL Monroe	-35.5	59.5	W 35 - 3	U	N
Thu 11/23	Ole Miss at Mississippi State	-11.0	56.0	W 17 - 7	U	N
Sat 12/30	Ole Miss vs Penn State	+5.5	53.0	W 38 - 25	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule

Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Alabama vs Middle Tennessee	-39.5	52.0	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Alabama vs Texas	-7.0	53.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	Alabama at South Florida	-34.0	61.0	W 17 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/23	Alabama vs Ole Miss	-7.0	56.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Alabama at Mississippi State	-16.5	45.0	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Alabama at Texas A&M	-2.5	45.0	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Alabama vs Arkansas	-19.0	45.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/21	Alabama vs Tennessee	-8.5	47.5	W 34 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Alabama vs LSU	-3.0	61.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Alabama at Kentucky	-10.0	45.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Alabama vs Chattanooga	-44.5	54.5	W 66 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Alabama at Auburn	-14.0	48.0	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 12/2	Alabama vs Georgia	+5.0	56.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Alabama vs Michigan	+2.0	46.0	L 20 - 27	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	#30 (.28)	44% (44)	35.1	44% (54)	2.94 (100)	176	45% (31)	286	4.72 (13)	#68 (.18)	42% (62)	22.5	43% (74)	41% (54)	3.64 (55)	59.1	0.5	1.4
ALA	#20 (.29)	45% (39)	34	45% (43)	3.23 (45)	160	45% (34)	212	4.59 (17)	#26 (.11)	36% (12)	19	38% (28)	34% (6)	3.86 (73)	45.7	0.7	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	#4 (.34)	47% (19)		44% (76)	3.02 (72)	164	51% (3)	317	4 (58)	#6 (.04)	35% (3)		35% (6)	36% (13)	2.98 (8)	68.5	0.9	1.6
ALA	#44 (.23)	45% (34)		45% (52)	2.75 (112)	169	45% (31)	222	4.71 (8)	#8 (.05)	37% (12)		38% (15)	37% (19)	2.85 (5)	66.3	1.4	2.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Offense	13	35.1	21.8	44.4%	4.72	0.5	23	462	176	286	4.3	54%	45%	44%	45%	15%	.28
ALA Defense	14	19	18.6	35.8%	3.86	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	34%	19%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Defense	13	22.5	24.8	41.6%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	41%	18%	.18
ALA Offense	14	34	38.6	45%	4.59	0.7	19	373	160	212	4.3	57%	43%	45%	45%	15%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ole Miss	13	27:43	23.5	37%	69%	7.2	59.1	0.5	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29
Alabama	14	28:25	18.6	47%	83%	5.4	45.7	0.7	1.3	5.9	2.8	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Offense	13	54% (37)	44% (54)	41.1	176.5	4.3	29 (22)	.17 (60)	2.94 (100)	70% (95)	11% (80)	1.05 (44)
ALA Defense	14	48% (40)	38% (28)	-	-	-	-	.15 (71)	3.13 (74)	67% (36)	12% (21)	1.12 (114)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.14 (70)	3.21 (96)	86% (127)	11% (30)	0.98 (58)
ALA Offense	14	57% (18)	45% (43)	37	160.4	4.3	30 (21)	.21 (39)	3.23 (45)	81% (13)	11% (91)	0.98 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Offense	13	45% (97)	45% (31)	19.7	30.4	285.6	9.4	14.5	26 (31)	6 (14)	.45 (17)	1.7 (21)	32% (72)	33% (55)	.43 (39)	5% (22)	2.2 (28)
ALA Defense	14	52% (98)	34% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.11 (9)	1.5 (42)	35% (29)	26% (18)	.23 (25)	7% (37)	2.1 (71)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Defense	13	49% (70)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.26 (59)	1.6 (79)	32% (65)	27% (26)	.23 (31)	7% (43)	2 (35)
ALA Offense	14	43% (115)	45% (34)	13.7	21.6	212.1	9.8	15.5	23 (51)	6 (14)	.44 (20)	1.9 (8)	31% (50)	34% (39)	.55 (11)	4% (6)	2.6 (1)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 11.28 #18
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 22.85 #22
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 8.12 #47
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 36% #21
Ole Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Ole Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #14
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #21
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 11.28 Alabama: 22.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 16.0 Alabama: 23.7

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 22.74 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90 #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 35.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Ole Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 33
Ole Miss 24

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Ole Miss 31
Alabama 27

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Alabama 30
Ole Miss 24

Total Points: 54

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.6
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.6

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	Alabama	24	Ole Miss	10	Alabama -7	Alabama	56.0	Under
2022	11/12	Ole Miss	24	Alabama	30	Alabama -11	Ole Miss	65.5	Under
2021	10/02	Alabama	42	Ole Miss	21	Alabama -15	Alabama	79.5	Under
2020	10/10	Ole Miss	48	Alabama	63	Alabama -24	Ole Miss	74.0	Over
2019	09/28	Alabama	59	Ole Miss	31	Alabama -37.5	Ole Miss	62.5	Over
2018	09/15	Ole Miss	7	Alabama	62	Alabama -22.5	Alabama	71.5	Under
2017	09/30	Alabama	66	Ole Miss	3	Alabama -30	Alabama	56.0	Over
2016	09/17	Ole Miss	43	Alabama	48	Alabama -9.5	Ole Miss	53.0	Over
2015	09/19	Alabama	37	Ole Miss	43	Alabama -8.5	Ole Miss	52.0	Over
2014	10/04	Ole Miss	23	Alabama	17	Alabama -4.5	Ole Miss	0
2013	09/28	Alabama	25	Ole Miss	0	Alabama -16	Alabama	0
2012	09/29	Alabama	33	Ole Miss	14
2011	10/15	Ole Miss	7	Alabama	52
2010	10/16	Alabama	23	Ole Miss	10
2009	10/10	Ole Miss	3	Alabama	22
2008	10/18	Alabama	24	Ole Miss	20
2007	10/13	Ole Miss	24	Alabama	27
2006	10/14	Alabama	26	Ole Miss	23
2005	10/15	Ole Miss	10	Alabama	13
2004	09/11	Alabama	28	Ole Miss	7
2003	10/18	Ole Miss	43	Alabama	28
2002	10/19	Alabama	42	Ole Miss	7
2001	10/13	Ole Miss	27	Alabama	24
2000	10/13	Alabama	45	Ole Miss	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Alabama	20	5	5 Overs
Ole Miss	4	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 9	8 - 3	4 - 2	4 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 15	3 - 8	1 - 4	2 - 4

(#18) MISS at (#9) ALA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MISS	ALA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#18	#9
SP+SP+	#14	#7
Perf GradeGrade	#24	#3
OffenseOff	#18	#10
DefenseDef	#60	#6
Spec TeamsST	#11	#3
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#21	#1

Ole Miss Injury Report

Alabama Injury Report

Ole Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	MISS Off	ALA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#6
SuccessSuc	#44	#12
ExplosiveExp	#26	#87
PPAPPA	#30	#26
PowerPwr	#22	#21
SP+SP+	#21	#9
Pts POPPO	#13	#73
HavocHav	#60	#16

Ole Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#7	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#28
Run ExplRExp	#44	#114
PPAExp	#60	#71
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#123	#108
TackleTak	-	#7

Ole Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#21	#42
PPAExp	#17	#9
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#87	#13
F7 HavocF7	#80	#21
DB HavocDB	#22	#37

Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MISS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#60
SuccessSuc	#39	#62
ExplosiveExp	#23	#69
PPAPPA	#20	#68
PowerPwr	#25	#47
SP+SP+	#11	#21
Pts POPPO	#17	#55
HavocHav	#51	#33

Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#15	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#74
Run ExplRExp	#79	#58
PPAExp	#39	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	#45	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#105
TackleTak	-	#38

Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	#34	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#8	#79
PPAExp	#20	#59
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#43	#40
F7 HavocF7	#91	#30
DB HavocDB	#6	#43

Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'23 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 90° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Alabama -7.0 (56.0)
Alabama won vs Ole Miss this year (24-10)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Ole Miss in 2023 (24-10)
Alabama beat Ole Miss in 2022 (30-24)

MISS's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	233	359	65%	3364	23	5	9.4
Spencer Sanders (Tr)	19	29	66%	278	3	0	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinshon Judkins	271	1158	15	4.3	40
Ulysses Bentley IV	95	540	4	5.7	43
Jaxson Dart	119	391	8	3.3	68
Matt Jones	12	79	2	6.6	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris (Tr)	54	985	8	18.2	56
Dayton Wade	55	830	4	15.1	58
Jordan Watkins	53	741	3	14.0	68
Caden Prieskorn (Tr)	30	449	4	15.0	37

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Washington	83	2	0	0	2
Ashanti Cistrunk (Tr)	71	5	3	1	0
John Saunders Jr.	65	2	0	1	4
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Ivey	46	12	6	4	2
Cedric Johnson	40	7	6	12	3
Suntarine Perkins	38	6	4	1	1
Isaac Ukwu (Tr)	30	5	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	8
Zamari Walton (Tr)	38	4	0	6
Deantre Prince	36	5	1	5

ALA's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Milroe	187	284	66%	2834	23	6	10.0
Ty Simpson	11	20	55%	179	0	0	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jase McClellan	180	890	8	4.9	34
Roydell Williams	111	560	5	5.0	48
Jalen Milroe	161	531	12	3.3	53
Jamarion Miller	41	201	1	4.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jermaine Burton	39	798	8	20.5	68
Isaiah Bond	48	668	4	13.9	52
Amari Niblack	20	327	4	16.4	39
Kobe Prentice	18	314	2	17.4	79

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kevin Steele (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Downs	107	4	0	0	3
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4
Jihaad Campbell	66	4	1	3	3
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Turner	53	16	11	13	1
Chris Braswell	42	11	8	5	1
Justin Eboigbe	63	12	7	4	1
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12
Kool-Aid McKinstry	32	2	0	0	7
Trey Amos (Tr)	12	1	0	1	5