Ole Miss at Alabama - 2023 Matchup Preview
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Ole Miss Rebels at Alabama Crimson Tide

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Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Alabama -7 (56.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Alabama 24 - Ole Miss: 10  (SEC)

 
Rebels (11 - 2) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Lane Kiffin (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (34 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ALA is playing their 4th straight game
MISS is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Alabama -9  (SP+ ALA -8)
Projected Score: MISS: 23 - ALA: 32 (55)
ALA Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MISS Travel: 139 miles
Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Ole Miss's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Ole Miss vs Mercer-35.059.5W 73 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Ole Miss at Tulane-8.064.0W 37 - 20UY
Sat 9/16 Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech-17.061.5W 48 - 23OY
Sat 9/23 Ole Miss at Alabama+7.056.0L 10 - 24UN
Sat 9/30 Ole Miss vs LSU+3.067.0W 55 - 49OY
Sat 10/7 Ole Miss vs Arkansas-13.061.5W 27 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Ole Miss at Auburn-6.555.5W 28 - 21UY
Sat 10/28 Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt-24.062.0W 33 - 7UY
Sat 11/4 Ole Miss vs Texas A&M-3.052.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 11/11 Ole Miss at Georgia+11.059.0L 17 - 52ON
Sat 11/18 Ole Miss vs UL Monroe-35.559.5W 35 - 3UN
Thu 11/23 Ole Miss at Mississippi State-11.056.0W 17 - 7UN
Sat 12/30 Ole Miss vs Penn State+5.553.0W 38 - 25OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Alabama's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Alabama vs Middle Tennessee-39.552.0W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Alabama vs Texas-7.053.0L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 Alabama at South Florida-34.061.0W 17 - 3UN
Sat 9/23 Alabama vs Ole Miss-7.056.0W 24 - 10UY
Sat 9/30 Alabama at Mississippi State-16.545.0W 40 - 17OY
Sat 10/7 Alabama at Texas A&M-2.545.0W 26 - 20OY
Sat 10/14 Alabama vs Arkansas-19.045.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/21 Alabama vs Tennessee-8.547.5W 34 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Alabama vs LSU-3.061.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/11 Alabama at Kentucky-10.045.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 11/18 Alabama vs Chattanooga-44.554.5W 66 - 10OY
Sat 11/25 Alabama at Auburn-14.048.0W 27 - 24ON
Sat 12/2 Alabama vs Georgia+5.056.0W 27 - 24UY
Mon 1/1 Alabama vs Michigan+2.046.0L 20 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS.2748%36.949%3.1125745%2404.04.1644%21.144%44%3.7263.21.52.3
ALA.3347%29.546%2.9519648%2824.78.0639%19.242%36%3.4968.71.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MISS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ALA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Offense1336.934.347.5%4.041.5254962572405.460%40%49%45%16%.27
ALA Defense1319.211.438.9%3.491.2 - - - - - 47%53%42%36%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MISS Defense1321.127.843.9%3.722.3 - - - - - 51%49%44%44%16%.16
ALA Offense1329.539.346.9%4.781.2244771962825.644%56%46%48%13%.33

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ole Miss1326:2325.247%49%6.863.21.52.35.72.5027.3
Alabama1329:5423.846%60%7.968.71.21.26.52.9331.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Offense1360%49%47.2256.55.433.273.1174%10%1.1
ALA Defense1347%42% - - - - .092.8568%11%0.94
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MISS Defense1351%44% - - - - .13.2274%10%0.86
ALA Offense1344%46%35.2195.75.626.232.9573%9%1.09

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Offense1340%45%18.429.7239.88.113.12211.31.629%36%.335%1.9
ALA Defense1353%36% - - - - - - 7.061.433%26%.147%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MISS Defense1349%44% - - - - - - 8.241.529%30%.226%1.8
ALA Offense1356%48%21.533.7281.58.413.1378.41.730%40%.684%2.4

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 11.28  #18
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 22.85  #22
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 8.12  #47
2023 Talent Rating: 756.04  #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 36%  #21
Ole Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Ole Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0  #14
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7  #21
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8  #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 11.28   Alabama: 22.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 16.0   Alabama: 23.7




Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 22.74  #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42  #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95  #21
2023 Talent Rating: 1015.43  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90  #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7  #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1  #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Ole Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 32
Ole Miss 23

Projected Total Points: 55
Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/23Alabama24Ole Miss10Alabama -7Alabama56.0Under
202211/12Ole Miss24Alabama30Alabama -11Ole Miss65.5Under
202110/02Alabama42Ole Miss21Alabama -15Alabama79.5Under
202010/10Ole Miss48Alabama63Alabama -24Ole Miss74.0Over
201909/28Alabama59Ole Miss31Alabama -37.5Ole Miss62.5Over
201809/15Ole Miss7Alabama62Alabama -22.5Alabama71.5Under
201709/30Alabama66Ole Miss3Alabama -30Alabama56.0Over
201609/17Ole Miss43Alabama48Alabama -9.5Ole Miss53.0Over
201509/19Alabama37Ole Miss43Alabama -8.5Ole Miss52.0Over
201410/04Ole Miss23Alabama17Alabama -4.5Ole Miss0
201309/28Alabama25Ole Miss0Alabama -16Alabama0
201209/29Alabama33Ole Miss14
201110/15Ole Miss7Alabama52
201010/16Alabama23Ole Miss10
200910/10Ole Miss3Alabama22
200810/18Alabama24Ole Miss20
200710/13Ole Miss24Alabama27
200610/14Alabama26Ole Miss23
200510/15Ole Miss10Alabama13
200409/11Alabama28Ole Miss7
200310/18Ole Miss43Alabama28
200210/19Alabama42Ole Miss7
200110/13Ole Miss27Alabama24
200010/13Alabama45Ole Miss7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Alabama2055 Overs
Ole Miss464 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 98 - 34 - 24 - 1
Road Teams9 - 153 - 81 - 42 - 4

(#18) MISS at (#9) ALA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMISSALA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #18 #9
SP+SP+ #14 #7
Perf GradeGrade #24 #3
OffenseOff #18 #10
DefenseDef #60 #6
Spec TeamsST #11 #3
TalentTal #23 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #21 #1
Ole Miss on Offense
CategoryCat
MISS OffALA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #18 #6
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #22 #21
SP+SP+ #21 #9
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Ole Miss Run Game
CategoryCat
MISS OffALA Def
Run GameRun #7 #10
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #83 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #7
Ole Miss Pass Game
CategoryCat
MISS OffALA Def
Pass GamePass #6 #2
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #87 #13
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Alabama on Offense
CategoryCatALA OffMISS Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #10 #60
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #25 #47
SP+SP+ #11 #21
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Alabama Run Game
CategoryCat
ALA OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #15 #82
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #3 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #38
Alabama Pass Game
CategoryCatALA OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #32 #74
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #43 #40
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'23 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Alabama -7.0 (56.0)
Alabama won vs Ole Miss this year (24-10)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Ole Miss in 2023 (24-10)

  
MISS's OC John David Baker (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaxson Dart23335965%33642359.4
Spencer Sanders (Tr)192966%278309.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinshon Judkins2711158154.340
Ulysses Bentley IV9554045.743
Jaxson Dart11939183.368
Matt Jones127926.636
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Harris (Tr)54985818.256
Dayton Wade55830415.158
Jordan Watkins53741314.068
Caden Prieskorn (Tr)30449415.037

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Washington832002
Ashanti Cistrunk (Tr)715310
John Saunders Jr.652014
Daijahn Anthony613008
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jared Ivey4612642
Cedric Johnson4076123
Suntarine Perkins386411
Isaac Ukwu (Tr)305432
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daijahn Anthony613008
Zamari Walton (Tr)384006
Deantre Prince365105

ALA's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalen Milroe18728466%283423610.0
Ty Simpson112055%179009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jase McClellan18089084.934
Roydell Williams11156055.048
Jalen Milroe161531123.353
Jamarion Miller4120114.945
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jermaine Burton39798820.568
Isaiah Bond48668413.952
Amari Niblack20327416.439
Kobe Prentice18314217.479

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kevin Steele (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Downs1074003
Deontae Lawson676344
Jihaad Campbell664133
Terrion Arnold6371212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Turner531611131
Chris Braswell4211851
Justin Eboigbe6312741
Deontae Lawson676344
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terrion Arnold6371212
Kool-Aid McKinstry322007
Trey Amos (Tr)121015