Arkansas at Alabama - 2023 Matchup Preview

Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama Crimson Tide(#8)

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Alabama -19 (45.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Alabama 24 - Arkansas: 21 (SEC)

Razorbacks (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 28 (28 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ARK 2nd straight Road Game
ALA is playing their 7th straight game
ARK is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Alabama -20 (SP+ ALA -21)
Projected Score: ARK: 14 - ALA: 34 (49)
ALA Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
ARK Travel: 425 miles

Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 34 - 19 (39 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARK Players
ALA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas vs Western Carolina	-38.0	61.0	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Arkansas vs Kent State	-38.0	57.5	W 28 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas vs BYU	-9.0	48.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas at LSU	+17.5	55.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+6.5	53.5	L 22 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/7	Arkansas at Ole Miss	+13.0	61.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Arkansas at Alabama	+19.0	45.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Arkansas vs Mississippi State	-6.5	46.5	L 3 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Arkansas at Florida	+4.5	50.0	W 39 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas vs Auburn	-2.5	46.5	L 10 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/18	Arkansas vs Florida International	-27.5	49.5	W 44 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/24	Arkansas vs Missouri	+9.5	53.5	L 14 - 48	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Alabama vs Middle Tennessee	-39.5	52.0	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Alabama vs Texas	-7.0	53.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	Alabama at South Florida	-34.0	61.0	W 17 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/23	Alabama vs Ole Miss	-7.0	56.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Alabama at Mississippi State	-16.5	45.0	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Alabama at Texas A&M	-2.5	45.0	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Alabama vs Arkansas	-19.0	45.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/21	Alabama vs Tennessee	-8.5	47.5	W 34 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Alabama vs LSU	-3.0	61.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Alabama at Kentucky	-10.0	45.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Alabama vs Chattanooga	-44.5	54.5	W 66 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Alabama at Auburn	-14.0	48.0	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 12/2	Alabama vs Georgia	+5.0	56.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Alabama vs Michigan	+2.0	46.0	L 20 - 27	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#75 (.18)	39% (105)	26.6	43% (74)	3.3 (34)	139	36% (112)	188	4.22 (35)	#42 (.14)	39% (40)	27.9	41% (48)	39% (29)	3.93 (79)	55.4	1.5	1.5
ALA	#20 (.29)	45% (39)	34	45% (43)	3.23 (45)	160	45% (34)	212	4.59 (17)	#26 (.11)	36% (12)	19	38% (28)	34% (6)	3.86 (73)	45.7	0.7	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)		52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)		39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1
ALA	#44 (.23)	45% (34)		45% (52)	2.75 (112)	169	45% (31)	222	4.71 (8)	#8 (.05)	37% (12)		38% (15)	37% (19)	2.85 (5)	66.3	1.4	2.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Offense	12	26.6	27.8	39.3%	4.22	1.5	17	327	139	188	3.5	52%	47%	43%	36%	20%	.18
ALA Defense	14	19	18.6	35.8%	3.86	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	34%	19%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Defense	12	27.9	30.3	39.5%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	39%	18%	.14
ALA Offense	14	34	38.6	45%	4.59	0.7	19	373	160	212	4.3	57%	43%	45%	45%	15%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas	12	30:43	17.3	38%	63%	6.3	55.4	1.5	1.5	6.3	2.4	5	27.5
Alabama	14	28:25	18.6	47%	83%	5.4	45.7	0.7	1.3	5.9	2.8	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Offense	12	52% (48)	43% (74)	39.3	139	3.5	9 (128)	.15 (70)	3.3 (34)	84% (5)	15% (130)	0.89 (115)
ALA Defense	14	48% (40)	38% (28)	-	-	-	-	.15 (71)	3.13 (74)	67% (36)	12% (21)	1.12 (114)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Defense	12	53% (108)	41% (48)	-	-	-	-	.07 (27)	2.95 (41)	70% (45)	11% (29)	0.9 (29)
ALA Offense	14	57% (18)	45% (43)	37	160.4	4.3	30 (21)	.21 (39)	3.23 (45)	81% (13)	11% (91)	0.98 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Offense	12	47% (86)	36% (112)	17.3	26.9	187.5	7	10.9	22 (61)	8 (30)	.24 (80)	1.8 (14)	34% (97)	27% (98)	.39 (49)	5% (32)	2.4 (3)
ALA Defense	14	52% (98)	34% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.11 (9)	1.5 (42)	35% (29)	26% (18)	.23 (25)	7% (37)	2.1 (71)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Defense	12	46% (29)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.27 (65)	1.9 (130)	32% (62)	27% (27)	.3 (61)	7% (42)	2.3 (129)
ALA Offense	14	43% (115)	45% (34)	13.7	21.6	212.1	9.8	15.5	23 (51)	6 (14)	.44 (20)	1.9 (8)	31% (50)	34% (39)	.55 (11)	4% (6)	2.6 (1)

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 3.28 #47
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 16.54 #65
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 8.58 #55
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 30% #25
Arkansas's 2023 Expected Record: 6.00 - 6.00
Arkansas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7 #58
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #57
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 3.28 Alabama: 22.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 2.7 Alabama: 23.7

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 22.74 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90 #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.8
Defense: 27.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.3

Arkansas's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 34
Arkansas 14

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Alabama 29
Arkansas 19

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Alabama 33
Arkansas 23

Total Points: 56

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.6
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.6

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/14	Alabama	24	Arkansas	21	Alabama -19	Arkansas	45.0	Push
2022	10/01	Arkansas	26	Alabama	49	Alabama -17	Alabama	61.0	Over
2021	11/20	Alabama	42	Arkansas	35	Alabama -20.5	Arkansas	58.5	Over
2020	12/12	Arkansas	3	Alabama	52	Alabama -28.5	Alabama	69.5	Under
2019	10/26	Alabama	48	Arkansas	7	Alabama -32	Alabama	56.0	Under
2018	10/06	Arkansas	31	Alabama	65	Alabama -35	Arkansas	58.5	Over
2017	10/14	Alabama	41	Arkansas	9	Alabama -37	Arkansas	54.5	Under
2016	10/08	Arkansas	30	Alabama	49	Alabama -13	Alabama	48.5	Over
2015	10/10	Alabama	27	Arkansas	14	Alabama -16	Arkansas	48.0	Under
2014	10/11	Arkansas	13	Alabama	14	Alabama -9	Arkansas	0
2013	10/19	Alabama	52	Arkansas	0	Alabama -28	Alabama	0
2012	09/15	Arkansas	0	Alabama	52
2011	09/24	Alabama	38	Arkansas	14
2010	09/25	Arkansas	20	Alabama	24
2009	09/26	Alabama	35	Arkansas	7
2008	09/20	Arkansas	14	Alabama	49
2007	09/15	Alabama	41	Arkansas	38
2006	09/23	Arkansas	24	Alabama	23
2005	09/24	Alabama	24	Arkansas	13
2004	09/25	Arkansas	27	Alabama	10
2003	09/27	Alabama	31	Arkansas	34
2002	09/28	Arkansas	12	Alabama	30
2001	09/22	Alabama	31	Arkansas	10
2000	09/22	Arkansas	28	Alabama	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Alabama	20	5	4 Overs
Arkansas	4	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	4 - 7	2 - 4	2 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 14	7 - 4	3 - 2	4 - 2

(#47) ARK at (#9) ALA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARK	ALA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#47	#9
SP+SP+	#58	#7
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#3
OffenseOff	#75	#10
DefenseDef	#58	#6
Spec TeamsST	#51	#3
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#25	#1

Arkansas Injury Report

Alabama Injury Report

Arkansas on Offense


CategoryCat	ARK Off	ALA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#75	#6
SuccessSuc	#105	#12
ExplosiveExp	#80	#87
PPAPPA	#75	#26
PowerPwr	#65	#21
SP+SP+	#57	#9
Pts POPPO	#35	#73
HavocHav	#120	#16

Arkansas Run Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#101	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#74	#28
Run ExplRExp	#115	#114
PPAExp	#70	#71
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	#34	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#108
TackleTak	-	#7

Arkansas Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#69	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	#112	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#14	#42
PPAExp	#80	#9
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#102	#13
F7 HavocF7	#130	#21
DB HavocDB	#32	#37

Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	ALA Off	ARK Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#58
SuccessSuc	#39	#40
ExplosiveExp	#23	#95
PPAPPA	#20	#42
PowerPwr	#25	#55
SP+SP+	#11	#69
Pts POPPO	#17	#79
HavocHav	#51	#28

Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	#15	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#48
Run ExplRExp	#79	#29
PPAExp	#39	#27
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	#45	#41
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#53
TackleTak	-	#19

Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#34	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#8	#130
PPAExp	#20	#65
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#43	#47
F7 HavocF7	#91	#29
DB HavocDB	#6	#42

Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'23 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 71° - Wind: 11 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Alabama -19.0 (45.0)
Alabama won vs Arkansas this year (24-21)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Arkansas in 2023 (24-21)
Alabama beat Arkansas in 2022 (49-26)

ARK's OC Kenny Guiton (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
KJ Jefferson	190	296	64%	2107	19	8	7.1
Jacolby Criswell	17	27	63%	143	3	0	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
KJ Jefferson	161	447	2	2.8	26
AJ Green	67	312	2	4.7	55
Rashod Dubinion	82	260	1	3.2	15
Raheim Sanders	62	209	2	3.4	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Andrew Armstrong (Tr)	56	764	5	13.6	48
Isaac Teslaa (Tr)	34	351	2	10.3	36
Luke Hasz	16	253	3	15.8	59
Jaedon Wilson	15	199	2	13.3	65

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Chris Paul Jr.	74	7	2	1	1
Jayden Johnson	61	2	0	1	3
Al Walcott	56	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Jackson	45	14	7	2	1
Trajan Jeffcoat (Tr)	16	9	4	5	0
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Keivie Rose (Tr)	15	4	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaylon Braxton	21	0	0	8
Dwight McGlothern	20	3	0	6
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	29	4	1	5

ALA's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Milroe	187	284	66%	2834	23	6	10.0
Ty Simpson	11	20	55%	179	0	0	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jase McClellan	180	890	8	4.9	34
Roydell Williams	111	560	5	5.0	48
Jalen Milroe	161	531	12	3.3	53
Jamarion Miller	41	201	1	4.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jermaine Burton	39	798	8	20.5	68
Isaiah Bond	48	668	4	13.9	52
Amari Niblack	20	327	4	16.4	39
Kobe Prentice	18	314	2	17.4	79

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kevin Steele (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Downs	107	4	0	0	3
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4
Jihaad Campbell	66	4	1	3	3
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Turner	53	16	11	13	1
Chris Braswell	42	11	8	5	1
Justin Eboigbe	63	12	7	4	1
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12
Kool-Aid McKinstry	32	2	0	0	7
Trey Amos (Tr)	12	1	0	1	5