Texas at Alabama - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Alabama -7 (53.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas 34 - Alabama: 24

Longhorns (12 - 2) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (16 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ALA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Alabama -2.5 (SP+ TEX -1)
Projected Score: TEX: 24 - ALA: 27 (51)
ALA Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
TEX Travel: 631 miles

Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TEX Players
ALA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas vs Rice	-35.5	59.0	W 37 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Texas at Alabama	+7.0	53.0	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas vs Wyoming	-31.0	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/23	Texas at Baylor	-17.5	49.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Texas vs Kansas	-15.5	61.0	W 40 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas vs Oklahoma	-4.0	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Texas at Houston	-24.0	60.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/28	Texas vs BYU	-20.5	48.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Texas vs Kansas State	-4.0	49.5	W 33 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/11	Texas at TCU	-13.0	56.0	W 29 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas at Iowa State	-7.5	43.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Texas vs Texas Tech	-16.5	53.5	W 57 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Texas vs Oklahoma State	-14.0	55.0	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Mon 1/1	Texas vs Washington	-3.0	61.5	L 31 - 37	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Alabama vs Middle Tennessee	-39.5	52.0	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Alabama vs Texas	-7.0	53.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	Alabama at South Florida	-34.0	61.0	W 17 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/23	Alabama vs Ole Miss	-7.0	56.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Alabama at Mississippi State	-16.5	45.0	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Alabama at Texas A&M	-2.5	45.0	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Alabama vs Arkansas	-19.0	45.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/21	Alabama vs Tennessee	-8.5	47.5	W 34 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Alabama vs LSU	-3.0	61.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Alabama at Kentucky	-10.0	45.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Alabama vs Chattanooga	-44.5	54.5	W 66 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Alabama at Auburn	-14.0	48.0	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 12/2	Alabama vs Georgia	+5.0	56.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Alabama vs Michigan	+2.0	46.0	L 20 - 27	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX	.28	48%	30.5	51%	3.29	188	46%	241	4.52	.13	39%	20.3	37%	40%	3.06	47.3	1.1	1.3
ALA	.33	47%	29.5	46%	2.95	196	48%	282	4.78	.06	39%	19.2	42%	36%	3.49	68.7	1.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ALA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Offense	13	30.5	19.8	48.3%	4.52	1.1	23	429	188	241	5.2	48%	52%	51%	46%	12%	.28
ALA Defense	13	19.2	11.4	38.9%	3.49	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	36%	18%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Defense	13	20.3	25.8	38.5%	3.06	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	37%	40%	17%	.13
ALA Offense	13	29.5	39.3	46.9%	4.78	1.2	24	477	196	282	5.6	44%	56%	46%	48%	13%	.33

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas	13	27:18	22.8	39%	55%	6.1	47.3	1.1	1.3	6.7	2.1	3	30.4
Alabama	13	29:54	23.8	46%	60%	7.9	68.7	1.2	1.2	6.5	2.9	3	31.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Offense	13	48%	51%	36.2	188	5.2	29	.22	3.29	75%	8%	0.9
ALA Defense	13	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.85	68%	11%	0.94

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Defense	13	45%	37%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.91	81%	11%	0.97
ALA Offense	13	44%	46%	35.2	195.7	5.6	26	.23	2.95	73%	9%	1.09

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Offense	13	52%	46%	19.1	31.2	241.4	7.8	12.7	22	7	.34	1.5	28%	32%	.4	4%	2
ALA Defense	13	53%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.06	1.4	33%	26%	.14	7%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Defense	13	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.21	1.6	35%	31%	.26	6%	2
ALA Offense	13	56%	48%	21.5	33.7	281.5	8.4	13.1	37	8	.4	1.7	30%	40%	.68	4%	2.4

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 15.87 #11
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.42 #40
Texas's Defense Rating: 2.04 #15
2023 Talent Rating: 913.24 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 70% #7
Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #6
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #6
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.5 #10

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 577.46

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 15.87 Alabama: 22.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 24.6 Alabama: 23.7

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 22.74 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 1015.43 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90 #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 577.46

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 27
Texas 24

Projected Total Points: 51

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	Alabama	24	Texas	34	Alabama -7	Texas	53.0	Over
2022	09/10	Texas	19	Alabama	20	Alabama -21	Texas	64.0	Under
2009	01/07	Alabama	37	Texas	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Alabama	2	0	1 Overs
Texas	1	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#11) TEX at (#9) ALA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TEX	ALA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#11	#9
SP+SP+	#6	#7
Perf GradeGrade	#10	#3
OffenseOff	#17	#10
DefenseDef	#17	#6
Spec TeamsST	#4	#3
TalentTal	#6	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#7	#1

Texas Injury Report

Alabama Injury Report

Texas on Offense


CategoryCat	TEX Off	ALA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#6
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#40	#21
SP+SP+	#6	#9
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas Run Game


CategoryCat	TEX Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#25	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#7

Texas Pass Game


CategoryCat	TEX Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#20	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#3	#13
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	ALA Off	TEX Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#10	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#25	#15
SP+SP+	#11	#10
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	#15	#7
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#78

Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#43	#16
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'23 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

TEX 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 85° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Alabama -7.0 (53.0)
Texas won at Alabama this year (34-24)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Alabama in 2023 (34-24)

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Quinn Ewers	272	394	69%	3479	22	6	8.8
Maalik Murphy	40	71	56%	477	3	3	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathon Brooks	187	1139	10	6.1	67
CJ Baxter Jr.	138	659	5	4.8	54
Jaydon Blue	65	398	3	6.1	69
Keilan Robinson	12	134	3	11.2	57

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Worthy	75	1014	5	13.5	54
Adonai Mitchell (Tr)	55	845	11	15.4	62
Ja'Tavion Sanders	45	682	2	15.2	50
Jordan Whittington	42	505	1	12.0	41

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Jeff Choate (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylan Ford	96	11	1	6	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	66	8	5	3	2
Jahdae Barron	55	4	0	0	5
Michael Taaffe	45	3	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Hill Jr.	66	8	5	3	2
Ethan Burke	39	9	5	2	0
Byron Murphy II	26	8	5	6	0
Barryn Sorrell	34	4	3	11	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jerrin Thompson	37	1	7
Terrance Brooks	20	0	5
Jahdae Barron	55	4	5

ALA's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Milroe	187	284	66%	2834	23	6	10.0
Ty Simpson	11	20	55%	179	0	0	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jase McClellan	180	890	8	4.9	34
Roydell Williams	111	560	5	5.0	48
Jalen Milroe	161	531	12	3.3	53
Jamarion Miller	41	201	1	4.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jermaine Burton	39	798	8	20.5	68
Isaiah Bond	48	668	4	13.9	52
Amari Niblack	20	327	4	16.4	39
Kobe Prentice	18	314	2	17.4	79

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kevin Steele (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Downs	107	4	0	0	3
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4
Jihaad Campbell	66	4	1	3	3
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Turner	53	16	11	13	1
Chris Braswell	42	11	8	5	1
Justin Eboigbe	63	12	7	4	1
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12
Kool-Aid McKinstry	32	2	0	0	7
Trey Amos (Tr)	12	1	0	1	5