East Carolina at Michigan - 2023 Matchup Preview

East Carolina Pirates at Michigan Wolverines

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Michigan -36 (53.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Michigan 30 - East Carolina: 3

Pirates (2 - 10) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Houston (22 - 27)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (31 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Michigan -43.5 (SP+ MICH -45)
Projected Score: ECU: 4 - MICH: 48 (52)
MICH Win prob: 97% | Cover: 58%
ECU Travel: 574 miles

Wolverines (15 - 0) (9 - 5 - 1)
Coach Jim Harbaugh (77 - 25)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12.8 - 2.2 (#1)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ECU Players
MICH Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

East Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	East Carolina at Michigan	+36.0	53.5	L 3 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/9	East Carolina vs Marshall	+3.0	43.5	L 13 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/16	East Carolina at App State	+7.5	48.5	L 28 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/23	East Carolina vs Gardner-Webb	-13.0	51.0	W 44 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	East Carolina at Rice	+3.5	47.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	East Carolina vs SMU	+11.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/21	East Carolina vs Charlotte	-6.0	39.5	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/28	East Carolina at UTSA	+17.5	48.0	L 27 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/4	East Carolina vs Tulane	+17.0	46.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/11	East Carolina at Florida Atlantic	+7.5	44.5	W 22 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	East Carolina at Navy	+2.5	30.5	L 0 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/25	East Carolina vs Tulsa	-4.5	44.5	L 27 - 29	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for East Carolina's Schedule

Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Michigan vs East Carolina	-36.0	53.5	W 30 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/9	Michigan vs UNLV	-38.0	57.5	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Michigan vs Bowling Green	-40.5	53.5	W 31 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan vs Rutgers	-24.0	44.5	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan at Nebraska	-17.0	39.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Michigan at Minnesota	-18.5	46.0	W 52 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Michigan vs Indiana	-33.5	45.5	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan at Michigan State	-25.5	47.0	W 49 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Michigan vs Purdue	-32.5	52.5	W 41 - 13	O	N
Sat 11/11	Michigan at Penn State	-4.0	44.5	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Michigan at Maryland	-17.5	50.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Michigan vs Ohio State	-3.0	47.0	W 30 - 24	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Michigan vs Iowa	-23.5	35.0	W 26 - 0	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Michigan vs Alabama	-2.0	46.0	W 27 - 20	O	Y
Mon 1/8	Michigan vs Washington	-5.5	55.5	W 34 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU	.28	45%	32.7	45%	3.08	171	45%	290	3.84	.24	45%	20.1	42%	48%	4.14	37.6	0.5	1.5
MICH	.28	50%	27.5	52%	3.15	239	48%	220	4.55	.04	37%	20.4	38%	36%	3.4	32	0.7	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ECU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MICH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Offense	13	32.7	30.8	45%	3.84	0.5	23	461	171	290	5.2	46%	54%	45%	45%	17%	.28
MICH Defense	14	20.4	13.3	36.7%	3.4	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	41%	59%	38%	36%	16%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ECU Defense	13	20.1	20.8	45.1%	4.14	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	39%	59%	42%	48%	18%	.24
MICH Offense	14	27.5	29.2	50%	4.55	0.7	23	459	239	220	5.6	59%	41%	52%	48%	12%	.28

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
East Carolina	13	31:11	22.5	46%	45%	4.3	37.6	0.5	1.5	5.4	1.8	2	30
Michigan	14	33:47	23.3	45%	86%	4.1	32	0.7	1.4	4.9	2.6	2	32.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Offense	13	46%	45%	32.5	170.6	5.2	25	.21	3.08	68%	9%	1.13
MICH Defense	14	41%	38%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.7	80%	9%	0.87

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ECU Defense	13	39%	42%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.83	59%	11%	0.96
MICH Offense	14	59%	52%	42.9	238.9	5.6	41	.28	3.15	76%	8%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Offense	13	54%	45%	24.8	37.2	290.5	7.8	11.7	28	5	.35	1.5	32%	34%	.49	8%	2.1
MICH Defense	14	59%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.07	1.4	34%	22%	.14	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ECU Defense	13	59%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.39	1.5	31%	36%	.4	7%	2.1
MICH Offense	14	41%	48%	17	26.4	219.9	8.3	12.9	24	6	.31	1.5	26%	32%	.31	4%	1.9

East Carolina's Power Ratings
East Carolina's Power Rating: -9.62 #117
East Carolina's Offense Rating: 4.42 #132
East Carolina's Defense Rating: 4.62 #25
2023 Talent Rating: 563.94 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
East Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50
East Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3 #111
East Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #126
East Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -9.62 Michigan: 31.905

SP+ Ratings Matchup
East Carolina: -13.3 Michigan: 32.1

Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 31.905 #1
Michigan's Offense Rating: 24.97 #14
Michigan's Defense Rating: -5.85 #1
2023 Talent Rating: 850.43 #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 51 #16
Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 12.80 - 2.20
Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 32.1 #1
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #10
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 7.4 #1

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

East Carolina Scoring
Offense: 32.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

East Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan 48
East Carolina 4

Projected Total Points: 52

Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.2
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.3

Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 15 - 0
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/02	Michigan	30	East Carolina	3	Michigan -36	East Carolina	53.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan	1	0	0 Overs
East Carolina	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#117) ECU at (#1) MICH

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ECU	MICH
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#117	#1
SP+SP+	#111	#1
Perf GradeGrade	#127	#1
OffenseOff	#134	#6
DefenseDef	#71	#1
Spec TeamsST	#91	#27
TalentTal	#77	#14
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#16

East Carolina Injury Report

Michigan Injury Report

East Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	ECU Off	MICH Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#1
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#132	#1
SP+SP+	#126	#1
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

East Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	MICH Def
Run GameRun	#92	#2
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#2

East Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	ECU Off	MICH Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#1
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#135	#3
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	MICH Off	ECU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#6	#71
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#14	#25
SP+SP+	#10	#81
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	MICH Off	ECU Def
Run GameRun	#51	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#9	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#14

Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	MICH Off	ECU Def
Pass GamePass	#11	#107
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#51	#107
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

ECU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Michigan -36.0 (53.5)
Michigan won vs East Carolina this year (30-3)

Previous Matchups
Michigan beat East Carolina in 2023 (30-3)

ECU's OC Donnie Kirkpatrick (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alex Flinn	159	290	55%	1558	6	12	5.4
Mason Garcia	48	95	51%	408	1	2	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rahjai Harris	129	485	5	3.8	50
Mason Garcia	50	227	2	4.5	57
Javious Bond	41	221	1	5.4	39
Alex Flinn	97	178	0	1.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Sowell (Tr)	47	622	1	13.2	45
Jaylen Johnson	45	466	2	10.4	39
Jsi Hatfield	27	341	1	12.6	39
Jhari Patterson	20	137	0	6.9	30

View East Carolina's Full Roster

ECU's DC Blake Harrell (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Julius Wood	87	3	0	1	1
Michael Edwards III	58	8	1	1	0
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Anta Johnson	33	9	4	1	0
Chad Stephens	39	12	4	4	0
Jeremy Lewis	40	9	3	6	1
J.D. Lampley	16	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
BJ Davis	57	6	0	2	6
Shavon Revel	55	4	1	0	6
Teylor Jackson	51	5	1	3	4

MICH's OC Sherrone Moore (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
J.J. McCarthy	240	332	72%	2991	22	4	9.0
Jack Tuttle (Tr)	15	17	88%	130	1	0	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Corum	258	1245	27	4.8	59
Donovan Edwards	119	497	5	4.2	46
Kalel Mullings	36	222	1	6.2	23
J.J. McCarthy	64	202	3	3.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roman Wilson	48	789	12	16.4	47
Colston Loveland	45	649	4	14.4	54
Cornelius Johnson	47	604	1	12.9	50
Donovan Edwards	30	249	0	8.3	37

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Jesse Minter (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Junior Colson	89	2	0	2	2
Michael Barrett	61	4	3	5	2
Ernest Hausmann (Tr)	44	2	0	0	0
Makari Paige	38	0	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Harrell	30	10	8	5	1
Josaiah Stewart (Tr)	33	9	6	3	2
Derrick Moore	34	6	5	4	2
Braiden McGregor	26	9	5	7	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mike Sainristil	36	5	2	3	6
Will Johnson	0	0	0	0	4
Josh Wallace (Tr)	28	2	0	0	4