LSU at Alabama - 2023 Matchup Preview
LSU logo (#3)LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide(#14)Alabama logo
Saturday, November 4th 2023 (7:45 PM EDT)
Alabama -3 (61.5) (-166)  Open: -7.0
Alabama 42 - LSU: 28  (SEC)

 
Tigers (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (12 - 5)
Avg Score : 46 - 28 (42 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
LSU coming off BYE
ALA coming off BYE
Our Line: Alabama -5   (SP+ ALA -5)

Projected Score: LSU: 29 - ALA: 34 (64)
ALA Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
LSU Travel: 288 miles
Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 34 - 19 (39 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
LSU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 LSU vs Florida State-2.056.5L 24 - 45ON
Sat 9/9 LSU vs Grambling-56.561.5W 72 - 10OY
Sat 9/16 LSU at Mississippi State-9.554.0W 41 - 14OY
Sat 9/23 LSU vs Arkansas-17.555.0W 34 - 31ON
Sat 9/30 LSU at Ole Miss-3.067.0L 49 - 55ON
Sat 10/7 LSU at Missouri-6.063.5W 49 - 39OY
Sat 10/14 LSU vs Auburn-11.060.0W 48 - 18OY
Sat 10/21 LSU vs Army-33.060.0W 62 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 LSU at Alabama+3.061.5L 28 - 42ON
Sat 11/11 LSU vs Florida-14.068.5W 52 - 35OY
Sat 11/18 LSU vs Georgia State-32.573.5W 56 - 14UY
Sat 11/25 LSU vs Texas A&M-10.567.5W 42 - 30OY
Mon 1/1 LSU vs Wisconsin-9.559.5W 35 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Alabama's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Alabama vs Middle Tennessee-39.552.0W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Alabama vs Texas-7.053.0L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 Alabama at South Florida-34.061.0W 17 - 3UN
Sat 9/23 Alabama vs Ole Miss-7.056.0W 24 - 10UY
Sat 9/30 Alabama at Mississippi State-16.545.0W 40 - 17OY
Sat 10/7 Alabama at Texas A&M-2.545.0W 26 - 20OY
Sat 10/14 Alabama vs Arkansas-19.045.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/21 Alabama vs Tennessee-8.547.5W 34 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Alabama vs LSU-3.061.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/11 Alabama at Kentucky-10.045.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 11/18 Alabama vs Chattanooga-44.554.5W 66 - 10OY
Sat 11/25 Alabama at Auburn-14.048.0W 27 - 24ON
Sat 12/2 Alabama vs Georgia+5.056.0W 27 - 24UY
Mon 1/1 Alabama vs Michigan+2.046.0L 20 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#1 (.52)56% (2)45.558% (1)3.9 (1)19754% (3)3094.86 (8)#126 (.32)45% (105)2845% (92)45% (113)4.55 (126)48.20.51
ALA#20 (.29)45% (39)3445% (43)3.23 (45)16045% (34)2124.59 (17)#26 (.11)36% (12)1938% (28)34% (6)3.86 (73)45.70.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU#30 (.25)45% (38)42% (89)2.92 (90)10847% (24)2913.99 (60)#92 (.21)41% (60)41% (54)41% (73)3.44 (30)45.71.21
ALA#44 (.23)45% (34)45% (52)2.75 (112)16945% (31)2224.71 (8)#8 (.05)37% (12)38% (15)37% (19)2.85 (5)66.31.42.1



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Offense1345.541.856.1%4.860.5245061973096.347%53%58%54%11%.52
ALA Defense141918.635.8%3.861.3 - - - - - 48%52%38%34%19%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Defense132837.544.8%4.551 - - - - - 49%51%45%45%16%.32
ALA Offense143438.645%4.590.7193731602124.357%43%45%45%15%.29

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
LSU1326:3723.756%43%5.748.20.515.12129.2
Alabama1428:2518.647%83%5.445.70.71.35.92.8230.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Offense1347% (95)58% (1)31.21976.332 (10).45 (1)3.9 (1)69% (103)6% (2)1.08 (27)
ALA Defense1448% (40)38% (28) - - - - .15 (71)3.13 (74)67% (36)12% (21)1.12 (114)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Defense1349% (51)45% (92) - - - - .24 (113)3.22 (97)91% (132)10% (79)1.07 (99)
ALA Offense1457% (18)45% (43)37160.44.330 (21).21 (39)3.23 (45)81% (13)11% (91)0.98 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Offense1353% (38)54% (3)19.628.2308.61115.741 (2)4 (2).59 (4)1.7 (33)24% (4)45% (1).74 (1)5% (29)2.1 (40)
ALA Defense1452% (98)34% (6) - - - - - - 12 (37).11 (9)1.5 (42)35% (29)26% (18).23 (25)7% (37)2.1 (71)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Defense1351% (86)45% (113) - - - - - - 10 (67).41 (123)1.7 (112)32% (64)34% (118).56 (132)6% (54)2.5 (132)
ALA Offense1443% (115)45% (34)13.721.6212.19.815.523 (51)6 (14).44 (20)1.9 (8)31% (50)34% (39).55 (11)4% (6)2.6 (1)

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 17.07 #8
LSU's Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
LSU's Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 70% #7
LSU's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30
LSU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 17.07   Alabama: 22.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 18.7   Alabama: 23.7




Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 22.74 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90 #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


LSU Scoring
Offense: 45.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 41.8
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

LSU's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 34
LSU 29


Total Points: 64

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.6
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.6

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09LSU13Alabama42AlabamaAlabama -2.5Alabama57.5Under
202311/04Alabama42LSU28AlabamaAlabama -3Alabama61.5Over
202211/05LSU32Alabama31LSUAlabama -13.5LSU56.5Over
202111/06Alabama20LSU14AlabamaAlabama -29.5LSU66.5Under
202012/05LSU17Alabama55AlabamaAlabama -29Alabama64.5Over
201911/09Alabama41LSU46LSUAlabama -5LSU65.5Over
201811/03LSU0Alabama29AlabamaAlabama -14Alabama51.5Under
201711/04Alabama24LSU10AlabamaAlabama -20.5LSU45.5Under
201611/05LSU0Alabama10AlabamaAlabama -7Alabama46.0Under
201511/07Alabama30LSU16AlabamaAlabama -7Alabama47.0Under
201411/08LSU13Alabama20AlabamaAlabama -6Alabama0
201311/09Alabama38LSU17AlabamaAlabama -9.5Alabama0
201211/03LSU17Alabama21Alabama
201111/05Alabama6LSU9LSU
201101/09LSU0Alabama21Alabama
201011/06LSU24Alabama21LSU
200911/07Alabama24LSU15Alabama
200811/08LSU21Alabama27Alabama
200711/03Alabama34LSU41LSU
200611/11LSU28Alabama14LSU
200511/12Alabama13LSU16LSU
200411/13LSU26Alabama10LSU
200311/15Alabama3LSU27LSU
200111/03Alabama21LSU35LSU
200011/03LSU30Alabama28LSU
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Alabama1484 Overs
LSU1146 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 144 - 83 - 31 - 5
Road Teams14 - 118 - 45 - 13 - 3

(#8) LSU Info
Power Rating: 17.07 #8
Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 70% #7
Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30


LSU has won 3 straight
LSU has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 2 (2 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

LSU Highlights
LSU has Really Good Running Game (#116)
LSU offense is efficent (#103)
LSU offense is explosive (#75)
LSU has a top Offensive Line (#129)
LSU offense is good in red zone (#123)
LSU offense is good on 3rd downs
LSU does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#122)

LSU has a great TO Margin (#82)

LSU Deficiencies
LSU has a bad defense (#60)
LSU gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#19)
LSU Does Not Stuff Runs (#93)
LSU has a bad red zone defense (#40)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatALALSU
OverallOver#3#9
OffenseOff#10#2
DefenseDef#5#45
Special TeamsST#3#80
PassingPass#25#2
RushingRush#11#1
Run BlockRBLK#3#7
Pass BlockPBLK#38#9
Route RunningWR Rt#28#11
TacklingTkl#6#15
Run DefenseR Def#8#43
Pass Rush DefPRush#12#26
Coverage DefCov#2#77

Rematch from Week 10
Alabama -3.0 (61.5)
Alabama won vs LSU this year (42-28)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat LSU last year (42-13)
Alabama beat LSU in 2023 (42-28)
LSU beat Alabama in 2022 (32-31)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: LSU | ALA
Depth Chart: LSU | ALA
Rosters: LSU | ALA
(#9) Alabama Info
Power Rating: 22.74 #9
Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90 #1
Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30


Alabama has won 6 straight
Alabama has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Alabama Highlights
Alabama offense is explosive (#21)
Alabama offense is good in red zone (#23)
Alabama offense is good on 3rd downs
Alabama Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Alabama has a really good defense (#44)
Alabama has a good run defense (#43)
Alabama has a good pass defense (#56)
Alabama Front 7 is disruptive (#23)
Alabama has a great TO Margin (#1)

Alabama Deficiencies
Alabama Does Not Stuff Runs (#107)


  
LSU's OC Mike Denbrock
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Daniels23632772%381240411.7
Garrett Nussmeier487862%592417.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayden Daniels1351134108.485
Logan Diggs (Tr)11965375.535
Josh Williams5528455.241
Noah Cain3718134.920
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Nabers8915691417.651
Brian Thomas Jr.6811771717.386
Kyren Lacy30558718.657
Mason Taylor3634819.725

View LSU's Full Roster
LSU's DC Matt House
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Major Burns904123
Greg Penn III897411
Andre Sam (Tr)821002
Harold Perkins7413664
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harold Perkins7413664
Mehki Wingo255500
Greg Penn III897411
Ovie Oghoufo (Tr)334321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zy Alexander (Tr)440007
Sage Ryan414005
Harold Perkins7413664

Alabama's OC Tommy Rees
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalen Milroe18728466%283423610.0
Ty Simpson112055%179009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jase McClellan18089084.934
Roydell Williams11156055.048
Jalen Milroe161531123.353
Jamarion Miller4120114.945
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jermaine Burton39798820.568
Isaiah Bond48668413.952
Amari Niblack20327416.439
Kobe Prentice18314217.479

View Alabama's Full Roster
Alabama's DC Kevin Steele
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Downs1074003
Deontae Lawson676344
Jihaad Campbell664133
Terrion Arnold6371212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Turner531611131
Chris Braswell4211851
Justin Eboigbe6312741
Deontae Lawson676344
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terrion Arnold6371212
Kool-Aid McKinstry322007
Trey Amos (Tr)121015