LSU at Alabama - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (7:45 PM EDT)
Alabama -3 (61.5) (-166) Open: -7.0
Alabama 42 - LSU: 28 (SEC)

Tigers (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (12 - 5)
Avg Score : 46 - 28 (42 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LSU coming off BYE
ALA coming off BYE
Our Line: Alabama -5 (SP+ ALA -5)
Projected Score: LSU: 30 - ALA: 35 (64)
ALA Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
LSU Travel: 288 miles

Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 34 - 19 (39 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LSU Players
ALA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

LSU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	LSU vs Florida State	-2.0	56.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/9	LSU vs Grambling	-56.5	61.5	W 72 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	LSU at Mississippi State	-9.5	54.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	LSU vs Arkansas	-17.5	55.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	LSU at Ole Miss	-3.0	67.0	L 49 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/7	LSU at Missouri	-6.0	63.5	W 49 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/14	LSU vs Auburn	-11.0	60.0	W 48 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/21	LSU vs Army	-33.0	60.0	W 62 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	LSU at Alabama	+3.0	61.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/11	LSU vs Florida	-14.0	68.5	W 52 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/18	LSU vs Georgia State	-32.5	73.5	W 56 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/25	LSU vs Texas A&M	-10.5	67.5	W 42 - 30	O	Y
Mon 1/1	LSU vs Wisconsin	-9.5	59.5	W 35 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule

Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Alabama vs Middle Tennessee	-39.5	52.0	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Alabama vs Texas	-7.0	53.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	Alabama at South Florida	-34.0	61.0	W 17 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/23	Alabama vs Ole Miss	-7.0	56.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Alabama at Mississippi State	-16.5	45.0	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Alabama at Texas A&M	-2.5	45.0	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Alabama vs Arkansas	-19.0	45.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/21	Alabama vs Tennessee	-8.5	47.5	W 34 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Alabama vs LSU	-3.0	61.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Alabama at Kentucky	-10.0	45.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Alabama vs Chattanooga	-44.5	54.5	W 66 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Alabama at Auburn	-14.0	48.0	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 12/2	Alabama vs Georgia	+5.0	56.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Alabama vs Michigan	+2.0	46.0	L 20 - 27	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU	#1 (.52)	56% (2)	45.5	58% (1)	3.9 (1)	197	54% (3)	309	4.86 (8)	#126 (.32)	45% (105)	28	45% (92)	45% (113)	4.55 (126)	48.2	0.5	1
ALA	#20 (.29)	45% (39)	34	45% (43)	3.23 (45)	160	45% (34)	212	4.59 (17)	#26 (.11)	36% (12)	19	38% (28)	34% (6)	3.86 (73)	45.7	0.7	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU	#30 (.25)	45% (38)		42% (89)	2.92 (90)	108	47% (24)	291	3.99 (60)	#92 (.21)	41% (60)		41% (54)	41% (73)	3.44 (30)	45.7	1.2	1
ALA	#44 (.23)	45% (34)		45% (52)	2.75 (112)	169	45% (31)	222	4.71 (8)	#8 (.05)	37% (12)		38% (15)	37% (19)	2.85 (5)	66.3	1.4	2.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Offense	13	45.5	41.8	56.1%	4.86	0.5	24	506	197	309	6.3	47%	53%	58%	54%	11%	.52
ALA Defense	14	19	18.6	35.8%	3.86	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	34%	19%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Defense	13	28	37.5	44.8%	4.55	1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	45%	16%	.32
ALA Offense	14	34	38.6	45%	4.59	0.7	19	373	160	212	4.3	57%	43%	45%	45%	15%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
LSU	13	26:37	23.7	56%	43%	5.7	48.2	0.5	1	5.1	2	1	29.2
Alabama	14	28:25	18.6	47%	83%	5.4	45.7	0.7	1.3	5.9	2.8	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Offense	13	47% (95)	58% (1)	31.2	197	6.3	32 (10)	.45 (1)	3.9 (1)	69% (103)	6% (2)	1.08 (27)
ALA Defense	14	48% (40)	38% (28)	-	-	-	-	.15 (71)	3.13 (74)	67% (36)	12% (21)	1.12 (114)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Defense	13	49% (51)	45% (92)	-	-	-	-	.24 (113)	3.22 (97)	91% (132)	10% (79)	1.07 (99)
ALA Offense	14	57% (18)	45% (43)	37	160.4	4.3	30 (21)	.21 (39)	3.23 (45)	81% (13)	11% (91)	0.98 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Offense	13	53% (38)	54% (3)	19.6	28.2	308.6	11	15.7	41 (2)	4 (2)	.59 (4)	1.7 (33)	24% (4)	45% (1)	.74 (1)	5% (29)	2.1 (40)
ALA Defense	14	52% (98)	34% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.11 (9)	1.5 (42)	35% (29)	26% (18)	.23 (25)	7% (37)	2.1 (71)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Defense	13	51% (86)	45% (113)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.41 (123)	1.7 (112)	32% (64)	34% (118)	.56 (132)	6% (54)	2.5 (132)
ALA Offense	14	43% (115)	45% (34)	13.7	21.6	212.1	9.8	15.5	23 (51)	6 (14)	.44 (20)	1.9 (8)	31% (50)	34% (39)	.55 (11)	4% (6)	2.6 (1)

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 17.07 #8
LSU's Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
LSU's Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 70% #7
LSU's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30
LSU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 17.07 Alabama: 22.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 18.7 Alabama: 23.7

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 22.74 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90 #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

LSU Scoring
Offense: 45.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 41.8
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

LSU's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 12 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 35
LSU 30

Total Points: 64

Based on Last 4 Games
LSU 35
Alabama 34

Total Points: 69

Based on Entire Season
Alabama 35
LSU 31

Total Points: 66

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.6
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.6

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Alabama	20	LSU	9	Alabama -10.5	Alabama	49.5	Under
2024	11/09	LSU	13	Alabama	42	Alabama -2.5	Alabama	57.5	Under
2023	11/04	Alabama	42	LSU	28	Alabama -3	Alabama	61.5	Over
2022	11/05	LSU	32	Alabama	31	Alabama -13.5	LSU	56.5	Over
2021	11/06	Alabama	20	LSU	14	Alabama -29.5	LSU	66.5	Under
2020	12/05	LSU	17	Alabama	55	Alabama -29	Alabama	64.5	Over
2019	11/09	Alabama	41	LSU	46	Alabama -5	LSU	65.5	Over
2018	11/03	LSU	0	Alabama	29	Alabama -14	Alabama	51.5	Under
2017	11/04	Alabama	24	LSU	10	Alabama -20.5	LSU	45.5	Under
2016	11/05	LSU	0	Alabama	10	Alabama -7	Alabama	46.0	Under
2015	11/07	Alabama	30	LSU	16	Alabama -7	Alabama	47.0	Under
2014	11/08	LSU	13	Alabama	20	Alabama -6	Alabama	0
2013	11/09	Alabama	38	LSU	17	Alabama -9.5	Alabama	0
2012	11/03	LSU	17	Alabama	21
2011	11/05	Alabama	6	LSU	9
2011	01/09	LSU	0	Alabama	21
2010	11/06	LSU	24	Alabama	21
2009	11/07	Alabama	24	LSU	15
2008	11/08	LSU	21	Alabama	27
2007	11/03	Alabama	34	LSU	41
2006	11/11	LSU	28	Alabama	14
2005	11/12	Alabama	13	LSU	16
2004	11/13	LSU	26	Alabama	10
2003	11/15	Alabama	3	LSU	27
2001	11/03	Alabama	21	LSU	35
2000	11/03	LSU	30	Alabama	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Alabama	15	9	4 Overs
LSU	11	4	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 14	5 - 8	4 - 3	1 - 5
Road Teams	14 - 12	8 - 5	5 - 1	3 - 4

(#8) LSU at (#9) ALA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LSU	ALA
Power RatePwr	#8	#9
SP+SP+	#10	#7
Perf GradeGrade	#11	#3
OffenseOff	#2	#10
DefenseDef	#53	#6
Spec TeamsST	#102	#3
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#7	#1

LSU Injury Report

Alabama Injury Report

LSU on Offense


CategoryCat	LSU Off	ALA Def
Perf GradePerf	#2	#6
SuccessSuc	#2	#12
ExplosiveExp	#11	#87
PPAPPA	#1	#26
PowerPwr	#1	#21
SP+SP+	#2	#9
Pts POPPO	#8	#73
HavocHav	#5	#16

LSU Run Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#1	#10
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#28
Run ExplRExp	#27	#114
PPAExp	#1	#71
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	#1	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#4	#108
TackleTak	-	#7

LSU Pass Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	#3	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#33	#42
PPAExp	#4	#9
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#10	#13
F7 HavocF7	#2	#21
DB HavocDB	#29	#37

Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	ALA Off	LSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#10	#53
SuccessSuc	#39	#105
ExplosiveExp	#23	#116
PPAPPA	#20	#126
PowerPwr	#25	#122
SP+SP+	#11	#55
Pts POPPO	#17	#126
HavocHav	#51	#69

Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#92
Run ExplRExp	#79	#99
PPAExp	#39	#113
Run BlockR Blk	#3	-
OL YdsOLY	#45	#97
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#103
TackleTak	-	#17

Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	#34	#113
Pass ExplPExl	#8	#112
PPAExp	#20	#123
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#43	#30
F7 HavocF7	#91	#79
DB HavocDB	#6	#54

Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

LSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 61°

Rematch from Week 10
Alabama -3.0 (61.5)
Alabama won vs LSU this year (42-28)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat LSU last year (42-13)
Alabama beat LSU in 2023 (42-28)
LSU beat Alabama in 2022 (32-31)

LSU's OC Mike Denbrock (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Daniels	236	327	72%	3812	40	4	11.7
Garrett Nussmeier	48	78	62%	592	4	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Daniels	135	1134	10	8.4	85
Logan Diggs (Tr)	119	653	7	5.5	35
Josh Williams	55	284	5	5.2	41
Noah Cain	37	181	3	4.9	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Nabers	89	1569	14	17.6	51
Brian Thomas Jr.	68	1177	17	17.3	86
Kyren Lacy	30	558	7	18.6	57
Mason Taylor	36	348	1	9.7	25

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Matt House (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Major Burns	90	4	1	2	3
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Andre Sam (Tr)	82	1	0	0	2
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4
Mehki Wingo	25	5	5	0	0
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Ovie Oghoufo (Tr)	33	4	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zy Alexander (Tr)	44	0	0	0	7
Sage Ryan	41	4	0	0	5
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4

ALA's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Milroe	187	284	66%	2834	23	6	10.0
Ty Simpson	11	20	55%	179	0	0	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jase McClellan	180	890	8	4.9	34
Roydell Williams	111	560	5	5.0	48
Jalen Milroe	161	531	12	3.3	53
Jamarion Miller	41	201	1	4.9	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jermaine Burton	39	798	8	20.5	68
Isaiah Bond	48	668	4	13.9	52
Amari Niblack	20	327	4	16.4	39
Kobe Prentice	18	314	2	17.4	79

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kevin Steele (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caleb Downs	107	4	0	0	3
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4
Jihaad Campbell	66	4	1	3	3
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dallas Turner	53	16	11	13	1
Chris Braswell	42	11	8	5	1
Justin Eboigbe	63	12	7	4	1
Deontae Lawson	67	6	3	4	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Terrion Arnold	63	7	1	2	12
Kool-Aid McKinstry	32	2	0	0	7
Trey Amos (Tr)	12	1	0	1	5