LSU at Alabama - 2023 Matchup Preview
LSU logo   LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide  Alabama logo
Saturday, November 4th 2023 (7:45 PM EDT)
Alabama -3 (61.5) (-166)  Open: -7.0
Alabama 42 - LSU: 28  (SEC)

 
Tigers (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (12 - 5)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (16 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#16)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
LSU coming off BYE
ALA coming off BYE
Our Line: Alabama -5  (SP+ ALA -5)
Projected Score: LSU: 24 - ALA: 29 (53)
ALA Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
LSU Travel: 288 miles
Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
LSU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 LSU vs Florida State-2.056.5L 24 - 45ON
Sat 9/9 LSU vs Grambling-56.561.5W 72 - 10OY
Sat 9/16 LSU at Mississippi State-9.554.0W 41 - 14OY
Sat 9/23 LSU vs Arkansas-17.555.0W 34 - 31ON
Sat 9/30 LSU at Ole Miss-3.067.0L 49 - 55ON
Sat 10/7 LSU at Missouri-6.063.5W 49 - 39OY
Sat 10/14 LSU vs Auburn-11.060.0W 48 - 18OY
Sat 10/21 LSU vs Army-33.060.0W 62 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 LSU at Alabama+3.061.5L 28 - 42ON
Sat 11/11 LSU vs Florida-14.068.5W 52 - 35OY
Sat 11/18 LSU vs Georgia State-32.573.5W 56 - 14UY
Sat 11/25 LSU vs Texas A&M-10.567.5W 42 - 30OY
Mon 1/1 LSU vs Wisconsin-9.559.5W 35 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule
Alabama's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Alabama vs Middle Tennessee-39.552.0W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Alabama vs Texas-7.053.0L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 Alabama at South Florida-34.061.0W 17 - 3UN
Sat 9/23 Alabama vs Ole Miss-7.056.0W 24 - 10UY
Sat 9/30 Alabama at Mississippi State-16.545.0W 40 - 17OY
Sat 10/7 Alabama at Texas A&M-2.545.0W 26 - 20OY
Sat 10/14 Alabama vs Arkansas-19.045.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/21 Alabama vs Tennessee-8.547.5W 34 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Alabama vs LSU-3.061.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/11 Alabama at Kentucky-10.045.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 11/18 Alabama vs Chattanooga-44.554.5W 66 - 10OY
Sat 11/25 Alabama at Auburn-14.048.0W 27 - 24ON
Sat 12/2 Alabama vs Georgia+5.056.0W 27 - 24UY
Mon 1/1 Alabama vs Michigan+2.046.0L 20 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU.3351%22.855%3.6318448%2694.6.1641%19.845%37%3.3452.11.42
ALA.3347%29.546%2.9519648%2824.78.0639%19.242%36%3.4968.71.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ALA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Offense1422.816.451.3%4.61.425453184269547%53%55%48%13%.33
ALA Defense1319.211.438.9%3.491.2 - - - - - 47%53%42%36%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LSU Defense1419.820.440.8%3.342 - - - - - 49%51%45%37%15%.16
ALA Offense1329.539.346.9%4.781.2244771962825.644%56%46%48%13%.33

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
LSU1431:0124.649%50%652.11.424.81.9227.8
Alabama1329:5423.846%60%7.968.71.21.26.52.9331.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Offense1447%55%37183.8539.353.6380%9%0.99
ALA Defense1347%42% - - - - .092.8568%11%0.94
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LSU Defense1449%45% - - - - .142.974%10%0.93
ALA Offense1344%46%35.2195.75.626.232.9573%9%1.09

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Offense1453%48%2334.3269.37.911.7237.321.427%35%.434%2
ALA Defense1353%36% - - - - - - 7.061.433%26%.147%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LSU Defense1451%37% - - - - - - 9.171.732%32%.385%2.2
ALA Offense1356%48%21.533.7281.58.413.1378.41.730%40%.684%2.4

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 17.07  #8
LSU's Offense Rating: 35.07  #1
LSU's Defense Rating: 15.64  #122
2023 Talent Rating: 899.31  #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 70%  #7
LSU's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30
LSU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7  #10
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1  #2
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 17.07   Alabama: 22.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 18.7   Alabama: 23.7




Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 22.74  #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42  #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95  #21
2023 Talent Rating: 1015.43  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90  #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7  #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1  #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.4
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.4

LSU's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 12 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 29
LSU 24

Projected Total Points: 53
Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Alabama20LSU9Alabama -10.5Alabama49.5Under
202411/09LSU13Alabama42Alabama -2.5Alabama57.5Under
202311/04Alabama42LSU28Alabama -3Alabama61.5Over
202211/05LSU32Alabama31Alabama -13.5LSU56.5Over
202111/06Alabama20LSU14Alabama -29.5LSU66.5Under
202012/05LSU17Alabama55Alabama -29Alabama64.5Over
201911/09Alabama41LSU46Alabama -5LSU65.5Over
201811/03LSU0Alabama29Alabama -14Alabama51.5Under
201711/04Alabama24LSU10Alabama -20.5LSU45.5Under
201611/05LSU0Alabama10Alabama -7Alabama46.0Under
201511/07Alabama30LSU16Alabama -7Alabama47.0Under
201411/08LSU13Alabama20Alabama -6Alabama0
201311/09Alabama38LSU17Alabama -9.5Alabama0
201211/03LSU17Alabama21
201111/05Alabama6LSU9
201101/09LSU0Alabama21
201011/06LSU24Alabama21
200911/07Alabama24LSU15
200811/08LSU21Alabama27
200711/03Alabama34LSU41
200611/11LSU28Alabama14
200511/12Alabama13LSU16
200411/13LSU26Alabama10
200311/15Alabama3LSU27
200111/03Alabama21LSU35
200011/03LSU30Alabama28
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Alabama1594 Overs
LSU1147 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 145 - 84 - 31 - 5
Road Teams14 - 128 - 55 - 13 - 4

(#8) LSU at (#9) ALA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLSUALA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #8 #9
SP+SP+ #10 #7
Perf GradeGrade #11 #3
OffenseOff #2 #10
DefenseDef #53 #6
Spec TeamsST #102 #3
TalentTal #7 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #7 #1
LSU on Offense
CategoryCat
LSU OffALA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #2 #6
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #1 #21
SP+SP+ #2 #9
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
LSU Run Game
CategoryCat
LSU OffALA Def
Run GameRun #1 #10
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #7 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #7
LSU Pass Game
CategoryCat
LSU OffALA Def
Pass GamePass #2 #2
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #10 #13
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Alabama on Offense
CategoryCatALA OffLSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #10 #53
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #25 #122
SP+SP+ #11 #55
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Alabama Run Game
CategoryCat
ALA OffLSU Def
Run GameRun #15 #49
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #3 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #17
Alabama Pass Game
CategoryCatALA OffLSU Def
Pass GamePass #32 #95
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #43 #30
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'23 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

LSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
Alabama -3.0 (61.5)
Alabama won vs LSU this year (42-28)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat LSU last year (20-9)
Alabama beat LSU in 2024 (42-13)
Alabama beat LSU in 2023 (42-28)

  
LSU's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Daniels23632772%381240411.7
Garrett Nussmeier487862%592417.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayden Daniels1351134108.485
Logan Diggs (Tr)11965375.535
Josh Williams5528455.241
Noah Cain3718134.920
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Nabers8915691417.651
Brian Thomas Jr.6811771717.386
Kyren Lacy30558718.657
Mason Taylor3634819.725

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Matt House (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Major Burns904123
Greg Penn III897411
Andre Sam (Tr)821002
Harold Perkins7413664
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harold Perkins7413664
Mehki Wingo255500
Greg Penn III897411
Ovie Oghoufo (Tr)334321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zy Alexander (Tr)440007
Sage Ryan414005
Harold Perkins7413664

ALA's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalen Milroe18728466%283423610.0
Ty Simpson112055%179009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jase McClellan18089084.934
Roydell Williams11156055.048
Jalen Milroe161531123.353
Jamarion Miller4120114.945
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jermaine Burton39798820.568
Isaiah Bond48668413.952
Amari Niblack20327416.439
Kobe Prentice18314217.479

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kevin Steele (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Downs1074003
Deontae Lawson676344
Jihaad Campbell664133
Terrion Arnold6371212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Turner531611131
Chris Braswell4211851
Justin Eboigbe6312741
Deontae Lawson676344
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terrion Arnold6371212
Kool-Aid McKinstry322007
Trey Amos (Tr)121015