Alabama at Kentucky - 2023 Matchup Preview
Alabama logo (#14)Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, November 11th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Alabama -10 (45.5) (-425)  Open: -10.0
Alabama 49 - Kentucky: 21  (SEC)

 
Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 34 - 19 (32 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Alabama -11.5   (SP+ ALA -14.5)
Projected Score: ALA: 30 - UK: 19 (49)
ALA Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
ALA Travel: 374 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (30 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Alabama's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Alabama vs Middle Tennessee-39.552.0W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Alabama vs Texas-7.053.0L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 Alabama at South Florida-34.061.0W 17 - 3UN
Sat 9/23 Alabama vs Ole Miss-7.056.0W 24 - 10UY
Sat 9/30 Alabama at Mississippi State-16.545.0W 40 - 17OY
Sat 10/7 Alabama at Texas A&M-2.545.0W 26 - 20OY
Sat 10/14 Alabama vs Arkansas-19.045.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/21 Alabama vs Tennessee-8.547.5W 34 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Alabama vs LSU-3.061.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/11 Alabama at Kentucky-10.045.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 11/18 Alabama vs Chattanooga-44.554.5W 66 - 10OY
Sat 11/25 Alabama at Auburn-14.048.0W 27 - 24ON
Sat 12/2 Alabama vs Georgia+5.056.0W 27 - 24UY
Mon 1/1 Alabama vs Michigan+2.046.0L 20 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Kentucky vs Ball State-25.049.0W 44 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-35.062.5W 28 - 17UN
Sat 9/16 Kentucky vs Akron-25.048.5W 35 - 3UY
Sat 9/23 Kentucky at Vanderbilt-13.550.0W 45 - 28OY
Sat 9/30 Kentucky vs Florida-1.044.0W 33 - 14OY
Sat 10/7 Kentucky at Georgia+14.547.0L 13 - 51ON
Sat 10/14 Kentucky vs Missouri-1.550.5L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Kentucky vs Tennessee+4.050.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 11/4 Kentucky at Mississippi State-5.544.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/11 Kentucky vs Alabama+10.045.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 11/18 Kentucky at South Carolina+2.552.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/25 Kentucky at Louisville+7.547.5W 38 - 31OY
Fri 12/29 Kentucky vs Clemson+3.544.5L 35 - 38OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA#20 (.29)45% (39)3445% (43)3.23 (45)16045% (34)2124.59 (17)#26 (.11)36% (12)1938% (28)34% (6)3.86 (73)45.70.71.3
UK#49 (.22)40% (93)29.141% (88)2.79 (118)12840% (83)2124.46 (23)#50 (.16)43% (87)25.842% (56)45% (116)3.95 (84)50.81.51.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA#44 (.23)45% (34)45% (52)2.75 (112)16945% (31)2224.71 (8)#8 (.05)37% (12)38% (15)37% (19)2.85 (5)66.31.42.1
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Offense143431.845%4.590.7193731602124.357%43%45%45%15%.29
UK Defense1325.82443.3%3.951.4 - - - - - 48%51%42%45%14%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Defense14191735.8%3.861.3 - - - - - 48%52%38%34%19%.11
UK Offense1329.129.940%4.461.5173391282124.943%55%41%40%18%.22

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Alabama1428:2518.647%83%5.445.70.71.35.92.8230.6
Kentucky1327:3416.938%20%6.150.81.51.45.52629.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Offense1457% (18)45% (43)37160.44.330 (21).21 (39)3.23 (45)81% (13)11% (91)0.98 (79)
UK Defense1348% (46)42% (56) - - - - .1 (40)2.87 (29)70% (48)10% (75)0.87 (18)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Defense1448% (40)38% (28) - - - - .15 (71)3.13 (74)67% (36)12% (21)1.12 (114)
UK Offense1343% (108)41% (88)26.1127.74.918 (77).15 (71)2.79 (118)68% (106)11% (79)1.12 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Offense1443% (115)45% (34)13.721.6212.19.815.523 (51)6 (14).44 (20)1.9 (8)31% (50)34% (39).55 (11)4% (6)2.6 (1)
UK Defense1351% (92)45% (116) - - - - - - 11 (53).23 (45)1.4 (11)31% (76)30% (70).39 (104)5% (114)2.1 (75)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Defense1452% (98)34% (6) - - - - - - 12 (37).11 (9)1.5 (42)35% (29)26% (18).23 (25)7% (37)2.1 (71)
UK Offense1355% (26)40% (83)16.228.8211.67.41325 (37)11 (68).32 (54)1.7 (25)35% (114)28% (88).31 (77)8% (113)2.2 (19)

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 16.78 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90% #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 16.78   Kentucky: 8.97

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 23.7   Kentucky: 9.3




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 8.97 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.8
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 30
Kentucky 19

Total Points: 49

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.9
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/11Kentucky21Alabama49AlabamaAlabama -10Alabama45.5Over
202011/21Alabama63Kentucky3AlabamaAlabama -31.5Alabama57.5Over
201610/01Alabama34Kentucky6AlabamaAlabama -32.5Kentucky54.5Under
201310/12Kentucky7Alabama48AlabamaAlabama -27Alabama0
200910/03Kentucky20Alabama38Alabama
200810/04Alabama17Kentucky14Alabama
200410/09Kentucky17Alabama45Alabama
200309/13Alabama27Kentucky17Alabama
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky012 Overs
Alabama831 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 41 - 31 - 10 - 2
Road Teams4 - 43 - 12 - 01 - 1

(#9) Alabama Info
Power Rating: 16.78 #9
Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90% #1
Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30


Alabama has won 7 straight
Alabama has won 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 5 - 0 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Alabama Highlights
Alabama offense is explosive (#21)
Alabama offense is good in red zone (#23)
Alabama offense is good on 3rd downs
Alabama Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Alabama has a really good defense (#44)
Alabama has a good run defense (#43)
Alabama has a good pass defense (#56)
Alabama Front 7 is disruptive (#23)
Alabama has a great TO Margin (#1)

Alabama Deficiencies
Alabama Does Not Stuff Runs (#107)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUKALA
OverallOver#32#3
OffenseOff#59#10
DefenseDef#26#5
Special TeamsST#49#3
PassingPass#51#25
RushingRush#12#11
Run BlockRBLK#74#3
Pass BlockPBLK#53#38
Route RunningWR Rt#50#28
TacklingTkl#40#6
Run DefenseR Def#31#8
Pass Rush DefPRush#46#12
Coverage DefCov#33#2

Rematch from Week 11
Alabama 10.0 (45.5)
Alabama won at Kentucky this year (49-21)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Kentucky in 2023 (49-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ALA | UK
Depth Chart: ALA | UK
Rosters: ALA | UK
(#43) Kentucky Info
Power Rating: 8.97 #43
Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #20
Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30


Kentucky has won 1 straight
Kentucky has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 3 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Kentucky Highlights
Kentucky offense is explosive (#92)
Kentucky offense is good in red zone (#60)
Kentucky defense does not give up big plays (#89)
Kentucky Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#46)
Kentucky Defensive Line is very good (#45)

Kentucky Deficiencies
Kentucky Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#28)


  
Alabama's OC Tommy Rees
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalen Milroe18728466%283423610.0
Ty Simpson112055%179009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jase McClellan18089084.934
Roydell Williams11156055.048
Jalen Milroe161531123.353
Jamarion Miller4120114.945
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jermaine Burton39798820.568
Isaiah Bond48668413.952
Amari Niblack20327416.439
Kobe Prentice18314217.479

View Alabama's Full Roster
Alabama's DC Kevin Steele
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Downs1074003
Deontae Lawson676344
Jihaad Campbell664133
Terrion Arnold6371212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Turner531611131
Chris Braswell4211851
Justin Eboigbe6312741
Deontae Lawson676344
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terrion Arnold6371212
Kool-Aid McKinstry322007
Trey Amos (Tr)121015

Kentucky's OC Liam Coen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Devin Leary (Tr)20937156%274625127.4
Kaiya Sheron2450%5001.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Re'Mahn Davis1991129145.775
Ramon Jefferson2818406.674
Barion Brown12147112.326
Demie Sumo2013917.042
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key42636615.158
Tayvion Robinson41552413.556
Barion Brown43539412.560
Re'Mahn Davis3332379.858

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Eryk Jackson898224
Trevin Wallace809630
Maxwell Hairston662006
Zion Childress582103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deone Walker5513882
J.J. Weaver448622
Trevin Wallace809630
Octavious Oxendine194320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maxwell Hairston662006
Andru Phillips482005
D'Eryk Jackson898224