Alabama at South Florida - 2023 Matchup Preview
Alabama logo (#19)Alabama Crimson Tide at South Florida Bulls(#18)South Florida logo
Saturday, September 16th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Alabama -34 (61.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Alabama 17 - South Florida: 3

 
Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 34 - 19 (32 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
USF 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Alabama -25.5   (SP+ ALA -33)

Projected Score: ALA: 42 - USF: 16 (58)
ALA Win prob: 100% | Cover: 48%
ALA Travel: 470 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bulls (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 32 - 32 (29 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 7.1 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Alabama's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Alabama vs Middle Tennessee-39.552.0W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Alabama vs Texas-7.053.0L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 Alabama at South Florida-34.061.0W 17 - 3UN
Sat 9/23 Alabama vs Ole Miss-7.056.0W 24 - 10UY
Sat 9/30 Alabama at Mississippi State-16.545.0W 40 - 17OY
Sat 10/7 Alabama at Texas A&M-2.545.0W 26 - 20OY
Sat 10/14 Alabama vs Arkansas-19.045.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/21 Alabama vs Tennessee-8.547.5W 34 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Alabama vs LSU-3.061.5W 42 - 28OY
Sat 11/11 Alabama at Kentucky-10.045.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 11/18 Alabama vs Chattanooga-44.554.5W 66 - 10OY
Sat 11/25 Alabama at Auburn-14.048.0W 27 - 24ON
Sat 12/2 Alabama vs Georgia+5.056.0W 27 - 24UY
Mon 1/1 Alabama vs Michigan+2.046.0L 20 - 27ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
South Florida's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 South Florida at Western Kentucky+13.571.5L 24 - 41UN
Sat 9/9 South Florida vs Florida A&M-20.063.0W 38 - 24UN
Sat 9/16 South Florida vs Alabama+34.061.0L 3 - 17UY
Sat 9/23 South Florida vs Rice+2.556.5W 42 - 29OY
Sat 9/30 South Florida at Navy+4.054.0W 44 - 30OY
Sat 10/7 South Florida at UAB-3.568.5L 35 - 56ON
Sat 10/14 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-3.061.0L 14 - 56ON
Sat 10/21 South Florida at UConn+1.057.0W 24 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 South Florida at Memphis+13.568.5L 50 - 59OY
Sat 11/11 South Florida vs Temple-7.570.5W 27 - 23UN
Fri 11/17 South Florida at UTSA+14.565.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 11/25 South Florida vs Charlotte-7.556.5W 48 - 14OY
Thu 12/21 South Florida vs Syracuse+3.056.0W 45 - 0UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA#20 (.29)45% (39)3445% (43)3.23 (45)16045% (34)2124.59 (17)#26 (.11)36% (12)1938% (28)34% (6)3.86 (73)45.70.71.3
USF#79 (.17)39% (106)31.939% (112)2.99 (92)18340% (82)2693.63 (89)#97 (.23)40% (41)32.240% (44)40% (47)3.7 (60)65.51.61.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA#44 (.23)45% (34)45% (52)2.75 (112)16945% (31)2224.71 (8)#8 (.05)37% (12)38% (15)37% (19)2.85 (5)66.31.42.1
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)39% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)38% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Offense143431.845%4.590.7193731602124.357%43%45%45%15%.29
USF Defense1332.227.239.8%3.71.9 - - - - - 45%54%40%40%19%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Defense14191735.8%3.861.3 - - - - - 48%52%38%34%19%.11
USF Offense1331.928.739.2%3.631.6234521832694.152%47%39%40%16%.17

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Alabama1428:2518.647%83%5.445.70.71.35.92.8230.6
South Florida1328:3523.138%43%7.565.51.61.97.51.8129.9
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Offense1457% (18)45% (43)37160.44.330 (21).21 (39)3.23 (45)81% (13)11% (91)0.98 (79)
USF Defense1345% (16)40% (44) - - - - .11 (44)2.73 (16)69% (44)12% (15)1.19 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Defense1448% (40)38% (28) - - - - .15 (71)3.13 (74)67% (36)12% (21)1.12 (114)
USF Offense1352% (49)39% (112)44.6182.84.123 (46).15 (68)2.99 (92)81% (12)11% (92)1.16 (8)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Offense1443% (115)45% (34)13.721.6212.19.815.523 (51)6 (14).44 (20)1.9 (8)31% (50)34% (39).55 (11)4% (6)2.6 (1)
USF Defense1354% (117)40% (47) - - - - - - 14 (21).37 (112)1.8 (128)35% (33)29% (56).37 (96)7% (46)2.3 (126)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Defense1452% (98)34% (6) - - - - - - 12 (37).11 (9)1.5 (42)35% (29)26% (18).23 (25)7% (37)2.1 (71)
USF Offense1347% (87)40% (82)22.134.4268.87.812.227 (25)11 (68).26 (73)1.6 (64)36% (121)27% (95).31 (76)5% (39)2.3 (15)

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 16.78 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90% #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 16.78   South Florida: -5.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 23.7   South Florida: -9.5




South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: -5.08 #95
South Florida's Offense Rating: 13.60 #94
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.46 #92
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
South Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10
South Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #102
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #61
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #123

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Alabama Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.8
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 42
South Florida 16


Total Points: 58

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.7
Defense: 32.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

South Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Alabama42South Florida16AlabamaAlabama -33.5South Florida65.5Under
202309/16South Florida3Alabama17AlabamaAlabama -34South Florida61.0Under
200308/30Alabama40South Florida17Alabama
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Florida020 Overs
Alabama302 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams1 - 21 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#9) Alabama Info
Power Rating: 16.78 #9
Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90% #1
Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30


Alabama has lost 1 straight
Record on Road: 5 - 0 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Alabama Highlights
Alabama offense is explosive (#21)
Alabama offense is good in red zone (#23)
Alabama offense is good on 3rd downs
Alabama Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Alabama has a really good defense (#44)
Alabama has a good run defense (#43)
Alabama has a good pass defense (#56)
Alabama Front 7 is disruptive (#23)
Alabama has a great TO Margin (#1)

Alabama Deficiencies
Alabama Does Not Stuff Runs (#107)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUSFALA
OverallOver#84#3
OffenseOff#91#10
DefenseDef#60#5
Special TeamsST#63#3
PassingPass#60#25
RushingRush#40#11
Run BlockRBLK#98#3
Pass BlockPBLK#81#38
Route RunningWR Rt#78#28
TacklingTkl#94#6
Run DefenseR Def#47#8
Pass Rush DefPRush#41#12
Coverage DefCov#83#2

Rematch from Week 3
Alabama 34.0 (61.0)
Alabama won at South Florida this year (17-3)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat South Florida last year (42-16)
Alabama beat South Florida in 2023 (17-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ALA | USF
Depth Chart: ALA | USF
Rosters: ALA | USF
(#95) South Florida Info
Power Rating: -5.08 #95
Offense Rating: 13.60 #94
Defense Rating: 11.46 #92
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #102
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #61
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #123
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10


South Florida has won 1 straight
South Florida has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

South Florida Highlights
South Florida is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

South Florida offense is explosive (#14)
South Florida Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#38)
South Florida Defensive Line is very good (#111)
South Florida Front 7 is disruptive (#94)
South Florida defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

South Florida Deficiencies
South Florida Fumbles a Lot (#42)
South Florida Commits a Lot of Penalties (#75)
South Florida offense is really bad (#129)
South Florida run game is really bad (#134)
South Florida Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
South Florida gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#36)


  
Alabama's OC Tommy Rees
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalen Milroe18728466%283423610.0
Ty Simpson112055%179009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jase McClellan18089084.934
Roydell Williams11156055.048
Jalen Milroe161531123.353
Jamarion Miller4120114.945
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jermaine Burton39798820.568
Isaiah Bond48668413.952
Amari Niblack20327416.439
Kobe Prentice18314217.479

View Alabama's Full Roster
Alabama's DC Kevin Steele
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Downs1074003
Deontae Lawson676344
Jihaad Campbell664133
Terrion Arnold6371212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dallas Turner531611131
Chris Braswell4211851
Justin Eboigbe6312741
Deontae Lawson676344
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terrion Arnold6371212
Kool-Aid McKinstry322007
Trey Amos (Tr)121015

South Florida's OC Joel Gordon
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown27642665%329226117.7
Bryce Archie (Tr)71547%53003.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown203809114.060
Nay'Quan Wright (Tr)18079784.447
Michel Dukes6335025.630
K'Wan Powell6121513.527
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Sean Atkins921054711.588
Naiem Simmons (Tr)39637516.353
Khafre Brown27435516.184
Mike Brown-Stephens (Tr)27350213.038

View South Florida's Full Roster
South Florida's DC Todd Orlando
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler979235
Daquan Evans6414457
Jaelen Stokes615211
James Gordon Iv589442
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daquan Evans6414457
James Gordon Iv589442
Jhalyn Shuler979235
Jonathan Ross477221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tavin Ward383008
Daquan Evans6414457
Jhalyn Shuler979235