Alabama at South Florida Game Matchup

Alabama Crimson Tide at South Florida Bulls

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Alabama -34 (61.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Alabama 17 - South Florida: 3

Crimson Tide (12 - 2) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (191 - 28)
Avg Score : 34 - 17 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 4.3 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Heavy Rain Shower Predicted
USF 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Alabama -25.5 (SP+ ALA -33)
Projected Score: ALA: 42 - USF: 17 (57)
ALA Win prob: 100% | Cover: 48%
ALA Travel: 470 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bulls (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 32 - 30 (34 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 7.1 (#76)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ALA Players
USF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Alabama vs Middle Tennessee	-39.5	52.0	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Alabama vs Texas	-7.0	53.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	Alabama at South Florida	-34.0	61.0	W 17 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/23	Alabama vs Ole Miss	-7.0	56.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Alabama at Mississippi State	-16.5	45.0	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Alabama at Texas A&M	-2.5	45.0	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Alabama vs Arkansas	-19.0	45.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/21	Alabama vs Tennessee	-8.5	47.5	W 34 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Alabama vs LSU	-3.0	61.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Alabama at Kentucky	-10.0	45.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Alabama vs Chattanooga	-44.5	54.5	W 66 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Alabama at Auburn	-14.0	48.0	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 12/2	Alabama vs Georgia	+5.0	56.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Alabama vs Michigan	+2.0	46.0	L 20 - 27	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule

South Florida's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	South Florida at Western Kentucky	+13.5	71.5	L 24 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/9	South Florida vs Florida A&M	-20.0	63.0	W 38 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	South Florida vs Alabama	+34.0	61.0	L 3 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	South Florida vs Rice	+2.5	56.5	W 42 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/30	South Florida at Navy	+4.0	54.0	W 44 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/7	South Florida at UAB	-3.5	68.5	L 35 - 56	O	N
Sat 10/14	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-3.0	61.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 10/21	South Florida at UConn	+1.0	57.0	W 24 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	South Florida at Memphis	+13.5	68.5	L 50 - 59	O	Y
Sat 11/11	South Florida vs Temple	-7.5	70.5	W 27 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/17	South Florida at UTSA	+14.5	65.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/25	South Florida vs Charlotte	-7.5	56.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Thu 12/21	South Florida vs Syracuse	+3.0	56.0	W 45 - 0	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA	.33	47%	33.8	46%	2.95	196	48%	282	4.78	.06	39%	17.4	42%	36%	3.49	68.7	1.2	1.2
USF	.27	44%	32.2	46%	3.54	197	42%	193	4.12	.39	51%	29.8	52%	51%	4.56	36.9	1.7	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Offense	13	33.8	27.8	46.9%	4.78	1.2	24	477	196	282	5.6	44%	56%	46%	48%	13%	.33
USF Defense	12	29.8	27.2	51.1%	4.56	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	52%	51%	14%	.39

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Defense	13	17.4	22.2	38.9%	3.49	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	36%	18%	.06
USF Offense	12	32.2	33.6	44%	4.12	1.7	19	390	197	193	5.3	56%	43%	46%	42%	16%	.27

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Alabama	13	29:54	23.8	46%	60%	7.9	68.7	1.2	1.2	6.5	2.9	3	31.2
South Florida	12	29:28	19.3	39%	45%	4.6	36.9	1.7	1.7	5.2	1.2	1	29.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Offense	13	44%	46%	35.2	195.7	5.6	26	.23	2.95	73%	9%	1.09
USF Defense	12	54%	52%	-	-	-	-	.41	3.52	70%	10%	1.25

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Defense	13	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.85	68%	11%	0.94
USF Offense	12	56%	46%	36.8	196.8	5.3	25	.33	3.54	79%	11%	1.2

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Offense	13	56%	48%	21.5	33.7	281.5	8.4	13.1	37	8	.4	1.7	30%	40%	.68	4%	2.4
USF Defense	12	45%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.43	1.5	26%	38%	.5	4%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Defense	13	53%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.06	1.4	33%	26%	.14	7%	1.9
USF Offense	12	43%	42%	15.7	27.2	192.9	7.1	12.3	18	9	.24	1.6	31%	28%	.33	5%	2.3

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 16.78 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Alabama's Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
2023 Talent Rating: 1424.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90% #1
Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30
Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 16.78 South Florida: -5.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 23.7 South Florida: -9.5

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: -5.08 #95
South Florida's Offense Rating: 13.60 #94
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.46 #92
2023 Talent Rating: 484.00 #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
South Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10
South Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #102
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #61
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #123

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 492.43
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 33.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.8
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 42
South Florida 17

Projected Total Points: 57

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

South Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Alabama	42	South Florida	16	Alabama	Alabama -33.5	South Florida	65.5	Under
2023	09/16	South Florida	3	Alabama	17	Alabama	Alabama -34	South Florida	61.0	Under
2003	08/30	Alabama	40	South Florida	17	Alabama

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Florida	0	2	0 Overs
Alabama	3	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#9) Alabama Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 16.78 #9
Offense Rating: 22.42 #25
Defense Rating: 3.95 #21
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #9
Talent Rating: 1424.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 90% #1
Expected Record: 9.70 - 4.30

Team Profile

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Alabama Ratings Matchup South Florida

Power #9

#95

Off #25

#94

Def #21

#92

Talent #1

#97

SP+ #7

#102

SP+ Off #11

#61

SP+ Def #9

#123

Rematch from Week 3
Alabama 34.0 (61.0)
Alabama won at South Florida this year (17-3)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat South Florida last year (42-16)
Alabama beat South Florida in 2023 (17-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain Shower
Temp: 82°( - Hum: 82%) - Wind: 11 mph

Team Information
Injuries: ALA | USF
Depth Chart: ALA | USF
Rosters: ALA | USF

(#95) South Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.08 #95
Offense Rating: 13.60 #94
Defense Rating: 11.46 #92
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #102
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #61
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #123
Talent Rating: 484.00 #97
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10

Team Profile

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Alabama's OC Tommy Rees

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Milroe	205	319	64%	2844	16	11	8.9
Eli Holstein	179	290	62%	2225	17	7	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Milroe	168	726	20	4.3	72
Eli Holstein	81	328	3	4.0	49
Isaiah Bond	4	98	1	24.5	44
Roydell Williams	26	53	2	2.0	10

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Corey Brooks	61	1013	9	16.6	86
Isaiah Bond	34	540	5	15.9	56
Malik Benson	25	311	1	12.4	67
Miles Kitselman	22	301	4	13.7	31

View Alabama's Full Roster

Alabama's DC Kevin Steele

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jihaad Campbell	119	12	5	3	2
Caleb Downs	81	8	1	1	6
Malachi Moore	70	3	1	3	8
Trey Amos (Tr)	50	4	0	0	13

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jihaad Campbell	119	12	5	3	2
Quandarrius Robinson	23	7	4	5	0
Tim Smith	35	4	2	5	0
Malachi Moore	70	3	1	3	8

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Amos (Tr)	50	4	0	0	13
Malachi Moore	70	3	1	3	8
Caleb Downs	81	8	1	1	6

South Florida's OC Joel Gordon

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gerry Bohannon	3	4	75%	27	0	1	6.8
Sean Atkins	1	3	33%	12	1	0	4.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kelley Joiner Jr.	121	799	12	6.6	54
Nay'Quan Wright (Tr)	109	510	8	4.7	64
Michel Dukes	63	365	2	5.8	35
Yasias Young	16	56	0	3.5	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	80	799	2	10.0	52
Michel Dukes	43	354	3	8.2	26
Mike Brown-Stephens (Tr)	28	350	4	12.5	32
Nay'Quan Wright (Tr)	22	149	0	6.8	44

View South Florida's Full Roster

South Florida's DC Todd Orlando

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamie Pettway	56	7	2	2	2
Will Jones II	44	4	1	0	3
James Gordon Iv	29	1	1	2	0
Jason Vaughn	22	4	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tramel Logan Jr.	20	6	4	2	0
Jamie Pettway	56	7	2	2	2
Jason Vaughn	22	4	1	0	0
Will Jones II	44	4	1	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Will Jones II	44	4	1	0	3
Jamie Pettway	56	7	2	2	2
Logan Berryhill	18	1	0	0	1