Miami (OH) at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Miami (OH) logo Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, December 27th 2025 (4:30 PM EST)
Fresno State -5.0 (41.0) (-165)  Open: -3.5 | 42.0
Fresno State 18 - Miami (OH): 3  (Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl)

 
RedHawks (7 - 7) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (64 - 67)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (20 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 6.5 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Miami (OH) -1  (SP+ FRES -3)

Projected Score: M-OH: 22 - FRES: 21 (43)
FRES Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
M-OH Travel: 1900 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Miami (OH) at Wisconsin+17.540.5L 0 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Miami (OH) at Rutgers+15.545.5L 17 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Miami (OH) vs UNLV+2.549.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 9/27 Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood-22.549.5W 38 - 0UY
Sat 10/4 Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois-4.538.5W 25 - 14OY
Sat 10/11 Miami (OH) at Akron-11.547.5W 20 - 7UY
Sat 10/18 Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan-12.547.5W 44 - 30OY
Sat 10/25 Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-2.540.5W 26 - 17OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4 Miami (OH) at Ohio+2.550.5L 20 - 24UN
Wed 11/12 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+6.544.5L 3 - 24UN
Wed 11/19 Miami (OH) at Buffalo-2.538.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 11/29 Miami (OH) vs Ball State-16.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 12/6 Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan+2.544.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 Miami (OH) vs Fresno State+5.041.0L 3 - 18UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 4, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.547.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 20 - 17UN
Fri 10/10 Fresno State at Colorado State-5.547.5L 21 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.046.5L 0 - 23UN
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+17.547.5W 30 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-3.040.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-1.550.5L 17 - 28UN
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-3.546.0W 41 - 14OY
Sat 12/27 Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-5.041.0W 18 - 3UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH#108 (.1)39% (107)23.543% (82)3.14 (35)14236% (119)1823.34 (105)#29 (.08)39% (37)21.739% (33)40% (51)3.39 (47)46.40.91.4
FRES#105 (.11)39% (110)25.838% (120)2.79 (101)15741% (78)1673.29 (111)#40 (.1)39% (32)18.843% (77)35% (14)3.26 (34)55.21.51.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH#95 (.15)41% (97)38% (119)3.1 (51)12144% (48)2043.43 (108)#38 (.12)44% (92)46% (100)42% (74)2.91 (6)38.61.11.4
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Offense1423.519.839.1%3.340.9173241421824.352%47%43%36%14%.1
FRES Defense1318.815.338.8%3.261.8 - - - - - 50%49%43%35%18%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Defense1421.721.239.1%3.391.4 - - - - - 49%49%39%40%18%.08
FRES Offense1325.826.538.6%3.291.5183241571674.753%45%38%41%15%.11

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami (OH)1428:1616.835%46%5.346.40.91.45.52.9331.4
Fresno State1329:2017.536%40%655.21.51.84.91.6333.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense1452% (49)43% (82)33.3142.24.317 (78).07 (90)3.14 (35)66% (108)7% (15)0.87 (113)
FRES Defense1350% (62)43% (77) - - - - .09 (62)3 (93)74% (92)10% (66)0.82 (8)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense1449% (56)39% (33) - - - - .05 (43)2.71 (31)73% (85)11% (35)0.92 (49)
FRES Offense1353% (41)38% (120)33.3157.14.722 (49).02 (114)2.79 (101)73% (59)10% (86)1.01 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense1447% (89)36% (119)12.624.7182.17.414.417 (86)10 (88).17 (108)1.7 (27)32% (80)28% (94).2 (110)6% (84)1.9 (103)
FRES Defense1349% (75)35% (14) - - - - - - 19 (12).14 (24)1.6 (91)33% (43)27% (30).17 (24)8% (12)1.8 (14)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense1449% (79)40% (51) - - - - - - 14 (12).19 (45)1.5 (28)34% (31)28% (47).22 (41)7% (24)2 (59)
FRES Offense1345% (99)41% (78)17.227166.56.29.713 (75)13 (127).25 (64)1.5 (78)33% (97)30% (73).31 (70)5% (48)2 (86)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -3.96  #86
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 3.22  #106
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 7.18  #63
2025 Talent Rating: 674.00  #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 6.5
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.6  #79
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #104
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 24.9  #53

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -3.96   Fresno State: -3.795

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -1.6   Fresno State: 1.1




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -3.795  #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 0.27  #127
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 8.96  #73
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #67
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #96
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.5  #43

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.2

Miami (OH)'s 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Miami (OH) 22
Fresno State 21


Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 23
Miami (OH) 23

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 24
Miami (OH) 19

Total Points: 43
Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/27Fresno State18Miami (OH)3Fresno State -5.0Fresno State41.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State110 Overs
Miami (OH)001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

Miami (OH) Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Arizona Bowl Miami (OH) vs Fresno State+5.041.0L 3 - 18
2024Arizona Bowl Miami (OH) vs Colorado State-1.042.5W 43 - 17
2023Cure Bowl Miami (OH) vs App State+6.541.0L 9 - 13
2022Bahamas Bowl Miami (OH) vs UAB+11.044.5L 20 - 24
2021Frisco Football Classic Miami (OH) vs North Texas-2.056.5W 27 - 14
2019Lendingtree Bowl Miami (OH) vs Louisiana+15.555.5L 17 - 27
Fresno State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Arizona Bowl Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-5.041.0W 18 - 3
2024Potato Bowl Fresno State vs Northern Illinois+2.041.0L 20 - 28
2023Mexico Bowl Fresno State vs New Mexico State+3.052.5W 37 - 10
2022La Bowl Fresno State vs Washington State-5.554.0W 29 - 6
2021Mexico Bowl Fresno State vs UTEP-11.551.5W 31 - 24
  
(#86) M-OH at (#102) FRES
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatM-OHFRES
Power RatePwr #86 #102
SP+SP+ #79 #67
Perf GradeGrade #43 #65
OffenseOff #69 #72
DefenseDef #33 #66
Spec TeamsST #34 #31
TalentTal #81 #80
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #88
Miami (OH) Notes
(11/29) Beat Ball St to make the MAC title game vs WMU
(11/20) QB Thomas Gotkowski better option in W vs Buff
(11/20) Beat Buff due to 3 TOs, even BS. Pass Def torched
(11/14) QB Dequan Finn quit the team.
(11/13) QB2 Hesson cannot play. 11/38 w/ 3 INT vs Tol
(11/4) Can't trust Dequan Finn. Will find a way to lose
(10/31) #2 Off in MAC, best OL, Avg DL, QB Finn meh
(10/31) 5-1 outside of paycheck games, L to UNLV by 3
(10/19) 3-0 in MAC play, undefeated after paycheck games
(10/19) Run heavy Off, QB Finn not good, Def inconsistent
(9/21) Nearly beat UNLV, OG'd 513-396. 1-8 on 3rd down
(8/30) Off awful vs Wisky, Finn cannot play? Def good
Miami (OH) Injury Report
Fresno State Notes
(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report
Miami (OH) on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
M-OH OffFRES Def
Perf GradePerf #69 #66
SuccessSuc #107 #32
ExplosiveExp #88 #20
PPAPPA #108 #40
PowerPwr #106 #73
SP+SP+ #104 #43
Pts POPPO #105 #34
HavocHav #38 #32
Miami (OH) Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
M-OH OffFRES Def
Run GameRun #100 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #82 #77
Run ExplRExp #113 #8
PPAExp #90 #62
Run BlockR Blk #51 -
OL YdsOLY #35 #93
Stuff RateStuff #48 #50
TackleTak -  #98
Miami (OH) Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
M-OH OffFRES Def
Pass GamePass #67 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #119 #14
Pass ExplPExl #27 #91
PPAExp #108 #24
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #120 #62
F7 HavocF7 #15 #66
DB HavocDB #84 #12
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFRES OffM-OH Def
Perf GradePerf #72 #33
SuccessSuc #110 #37
ExplosiveExp #55 #32
PPAPPA #105 #29
PowerPwr #127 #63
SP+SP+ #96 #53
Pts POPPO #111 #47
HavocHav #65 #26
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffM-OH Def
Run GameRun #34 #84
Run SuccessRSuc #120 #33
Run ExplRExp #51 #49
PPAExp #114 #43
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #101 #31
Stuff RateStuff #91 #48
TackleTak -  #83
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFRES OffM-OH Def
Pass GamePass #91 #42
Pass SuccessPSuc #78 #51
Pass ExplPExl #78 #28
PPAExp #64 #45
Pass Block/RushP Blk #21 #5
F7 HavocF7 #86 #35
DB HavocDB #48 #24
Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 67° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Fresno State -5.0 (41.0)
Fresno State won vs Miami (OH) this year (18-3)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn (Tr)10618159%1451968.0
Henry Hesson399840%596436.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Brunson16476744.760
Dequan Finn (Tr)8939544.439
D'Shawntae Jones6327774.446
Kenny Tracy4927215.621
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamryn Perry43976622.766
Cole Weaver45642114.336
Keith Reynolds (Tr)3635219.869
Deion Colzie (Tr)11178116.244

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Blakey1185138
Jackson Kuwatch10110511
Corban Hondru847372
Silas Walters713107
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adam Trick57128124
Jackson Kuwatch10110511
Nasir Washington176410
Bai Jobe (Tr)154440
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Blakey1185138
Silas Walters713107
Kaleb Martin310007

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)19327869%202513117.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)479649%354123.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)11069966.469
Bryson Donelson14258354.157
Brandon Ramirez6027134.519
Johnathan Arceneaux4026726.758
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman52642612.351
Richie Anderson32321310.025
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)2825509.141
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622826.323

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)966013
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Camryn Bracha523004
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
Korey Foreman196422
Jahzon Jacks327430
Deijon Laffitte275303
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry260007
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Alzillion Hamilton342015