Miami (OH) at Colorado State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Colorado State Rams

Saturday, December 28th 2024 (4:30 PM EST)
Miami (OH) -1 (42.5) (-120) Open: 0.0 | 43.5
Miami (OH) 43 - Colorado State: 17 (Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl)

RedHawks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (56 - 62)
Avg Score : 24 - 19 (23 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Miami (OH) -4 (SP+ M-OH -7)
Projected Score: M-OH: 23 - CSU: 19 (42)
M-OH Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
M-OH Travel: 1545 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Rams (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 24 - 26 (27 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
M-OH Players
CSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Miami (OH) vs Northwestern	+4.0	43.0	L 6 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati	+3.5	47.5	L 16 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Miami (OH) at Notre Dame	+27.5	44.0	L 3 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts	-15.5	44.5	W 23 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Miami (OH) at Toledo	+4.5	44.0	L 20 - 30	O	N
Sat 10/12	Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan	-3.0	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-3.5	43.5	W 30 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan	-10.5	48.5	W 46 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Miami (OH) at Ball State	-12.5	48.5	W 27 - 21	U	N
Wed 11/13	Miami (OH) vs Kent State	-31.0	47.5	W 34 - 7	U	N
Tue 11/19	Miami (OH) vs Northern Illinois	-1.5	43.0	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Fri 11/29	Miami (OH) at Bowling Green	+3.0	37.5	W 28 - 12	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Miami (OH) vs Ohio	-2.5	43.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 12/28	Miami (OH) vs Colorado State	-1.0	42.5	W 43 - 17	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule

Colorado State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Colorado State at Texas	+35.5	59.0	L 0 - 52	U	N
Sat 9/7	Colorado State vs Northern Colorado	-31.0	52.5	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/14	Colorado State vs Colorado	+7.5	58.5	L 9 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/21	Colorado State vs UTEP	-8.5	49.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Colorado State at Oregon State	+10.0	47.0	L 31 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Colorado State vs San José State	-2.5	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Colorado State at Air Force	-6.0	43.5	W 21 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Colorado State vs New Mexico	-3.5	62.0	W 17 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Colorado State at Nevada	-2.0	45.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	Colorado State vs Wyoming	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Colorado State at Fresno State	+3.5	43.5	L 22 - 28	O	N
Fri 11/29	Colorado State vs Utah State	-5.5	56.5	W 42 - 37	O	N
Sat 12/28	Colorado State vs Miami (OH)	+1.0	42.5	L 17 - 43	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#95 (.15)	41% (97)	24.1	38% (119)	3.1 (51)	121	44% (48)	204	3.43 (108)	#38 (.12)	44% (92)	18.8	46% (100)	42% (74)	2.91 (6)	38.6	1.1	1.4
CSU	#90 (.16)	42% (76)	24.4	43% (80)	2.88 (96)	162	41% (81)	192	3.56 (98)	#61 (.16)	42% (78)	25.8	42% (59)	43% (94)	4 (88)	47.3	1.2	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#95 (.15)	41% (97)		38% (119)	3.1 (51)	121	44% (48)	204	3.43 (108)	#38 (.12)	44% (92)		46% (100)	42% (74)	2.91 (6)	38.6	1.1	1.4
CSU	#90 (.16)	42% (76)		43% (80)	2.88 (96)	162	41% (81)	192	3.56 (98)	#61 (.16)	42% (78)		42% (59)	43% (94)	4 (88)	47.3	1.2	1.5

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Offense	14	24.1	23.2	40.7%	3.43	1.1	16	325	121	204	4.5	45%	55%	38%	44%	18%	.15
CSU Defense	13	25.8	19.9	42.4%	4	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	42%	43%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Defense	14	18.8	21	43.6%	2.91	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	42%	18%	.12
CSU Offense	13	24.4	26.9	42.2%	3.56	1.2	16	354	162	192	4.9	55%	45%	43%	41%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami (OH)	14	27:07	15.5	33%	40%	4.8	38.6	1.1	1.4	4.9	2.1	0	39.1
Colorado State	13	28:44	16.5	35%	64%	5.8	47.3	1.2	1.5	4.2	1.1	2	27.8

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense	14	45% (108)	38% (119)	26.6	120.5	4.5	9 (125)	.1 (90)	3.1 (51)	69% (98)	11% (86)	0.96 (70)
CSU Defense	13	49% (51)	42% (59)	-	-	-	-	.1 (55)	3.01 (70)	69% (45)	9% (91)	1.02 (88)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense	14	47% (36)	46% (100)	-	-	-	-	.13 (74)	3.24 (102)	68% (38)	10% (67)	0.88 (21)
CSU Offense	13	55% (30)	43% (80)	33.4	161.8	4.9	19 (73)	.03 (115)	2.88 (96)	55% (133)	9% (46)	0.92 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense	14	55% (28)	44% (48)	15.1	26.6	204.3	7.7	13.5	23 (41)	12 (85)	.22 (87)	1.5 (90)	33% (99)	30% (83)	.27 (90)	7% (111)	2 (81)
CSU Defense	13	51% (85)	43% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.22 (59)	1.4 (16)	30% (105)	30% (64)	.27 (49)	8% (22)	1.9 (35)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense	14	52% (102)	42% (74)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.11 (18)	1.2 (1)	30% (99)	30% (61)	.17 (14)	8% (7)	1.6 (4)
CSU Offense	13	45% (102)	41% (81)	16.2	26.4	191.8	7.3	11.8	15 (98)	8 (40)	.31 (43)	1.7 (25)	32% (75)	34% (37)	.42 (33)	7% (98)	2 (92)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -3.43 #75
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.33 #115
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 4.27 #21
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Miami (OH)'s 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.3 #68
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #43

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -3.43 Colorado State: -4.87

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 1.3 Colorado State: -5.7

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -4.87 #78
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 19.14 #74
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.60 #69
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Colorado State's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Colorado State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #92
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #85

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 21

Miami (OH)'s 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Miami (OH) 23
Colorado State 19

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami (OH) 20
Colorado State 18

Total Points: 38

Based on Entire Season
Miami (OH) 23
Colorado State 23

Total Points: 46

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 24.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.9
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.9

Colorado State's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/28	Colorado State	17	Miami (OH)	43	Miami (OH) -1	Miami (OH)	42.5	Over
2010	09/18	Miami (OH)	31	Colorado State	10
2003	09/20	Colorado State	21	Miami (OH)	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado State	0	0	1 Overs
Miami (OH)	3	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

Miami (OH) Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Arizona Bowl	Miami (OH) vs Colorado State	-1.0	42.5	W 43 - 17
2023	Cure Bowl	Miami (OH) vs App State	+6.5	41.0	L 9 - 13
2022	Bahamas Bowl	Miami (OH) vs UAB	+11.0	44.5	L 20 - 24
2021	Frisco Football Classic	Miami (OH) vs North Texas	-2.0	56.5	W 27 - 14
2019	Lendingtree Bowl	Miami (OH) vs Louisiana	+15.5	55.5	L 17 - 27

Colorado State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Arizona Bowl	Colorado State vs Miami (OH)	+1.0	42.5	L 17 - 43

(#75) M-OH at (#78) CSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	M-OH	CSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#75	#78
SP+SP+	#68	#93
Perf GradeGrade	#48	#46
OffenseOff	#74	#40
DefenseDef	#33	#46
Spec TeamsST	#41	#83
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#102

Miami (OH) Notes(11/25) Huge W @ N Ill. Game vs BG for MAC title game
(11/18) Rgame great vs Kent, Run Def good, QB meh
(11/8) Rgame bad vs Ball St, Gabbert eff, Run D great TW
(10/31) QB Gabbert hurt vs CMU, returned but monitor
(10/27) Off cookin (P +R) 500+ yds, 7.1 ypc in CMU drilling
(10/20) Gabbert efficient, Def good vs Ohio. 2 INTs
(10/13) Off 400+ yds in blowout of EMU. Def good
(10/4) Managed well but 0-3 vs P4. W vs UMass helps
(9/15) Off stats near last esp Run, worst Red Zone team
(9/1) Good fight vs Nw. Def great, QB meh, Rgame awful
(7/30) Sr QB Gabbert returns, JAG could elevate
(7/30) Lost top weapons to portal, WR (SC), RB (Ole Miss)
Miami (OH) Injury Report

Colorado State Notes(11/29) QB torched Ut St. Rgame awful, R Def awful
(11/29) Came back from 30-13 deficit with 29 str pts
(11/18) Rgame mauled Wyom, Def great TW. Hot team
(11/3) Won 4 straight, Rgame good over Nevada
(11/2) CSU has covered 5 straight into Nevada gm
(10/20) Def all 350 to Air Force? Rgame good enough
(10/14) Star WR Tory Horton out for season (knee)
(10/13) QB/Rgame better (4.8 ypc) in W over SJSU
(10/10) Rgame showed better vs Oreg St, QB still JAG
(8/11) CSU has not bowled in 7 years, pressure
(7/31) Should bowl, but o/u 6 wins feels dead on
(7/30) Very important year for 3rd year staff
Colorado State Injury Report

Miami (OH) on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	CSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#46
SuccessSuc	#97	#78
ExplosiveExp	#61	#49
PPAPPA	#95	#61
PowerPwr	#115	#69
SP+SP+	#98	#85
Pts POPPO	#108	#88
HavocHav	#107	#59

Miami (OH) Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#92	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#119	#59
Run ExplRExp	#70	#88
PPAExp	#90	#55
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#51	#70
Stuff RateStuff	#75	#93
TackleTak	-	#70

Miami (OH) Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#117	#53
Pass SuccessPSuc	#48	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#90	#16
PPAExp	#87	#59
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#115	#95
F7 HavocF7	#86	#91
DB HavocDB	#111	#22

Colorado State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	M-OH Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#40	#33
SuccessSuc	#76	#92
ExplosiveExp	#85	#2
PPAPPA	#90	#38
PowerPwr	#74	#21
SP+SP+	#92	#43
Pts POPPO	#98	#6
HavocHav	#59	#35

Colorado State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	M-OH Def
Run GameRun	#92	#52
Run SuccessRSuc	#80	#100
Run ExplRExp	#87	#21
PPAExp	#115	#74
Run BlockR Blk	#15	-
OL YdsOLY	#96	#102
Stuff RateStuff	#112	#125
TackleTak	-	#60

Colorado State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	M-OH Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#36
Pass SuccessPSuc	#81	#74
Pass ExplPExl	#25	#1
PPAExp	#43	#18
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#13	#53
F7 HavocF7	#46	#67
DB HavocDB	#98	#7

Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average G5

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Arizona Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 72° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Miami (OH) 1.0 (42.5)
Miami (OH) won at Colorado State this year (43-17)

Previous Matchups
Miami (OH) beat Colorado State last year (43-17)

M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brett Gabbert	217	379	57%	2921	21	11	7.7
Henry Hesson	7	17	41%	93	1	0	5.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keyon Mozee	178	1098	4	6.2	74
Kevin Davis	50	331	4	6.6	97
Jordan Brunson	53	299	4	5.6	75
Dylan Downing (Tr)	44	152	1	3.5	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Tracy	57	818	7	14.4	72
Reginald Virgil	41	816	9	19.9	75
Cade McDonald	52	631	3	12.1	51
Kevin Davis	29	234	2	8.1	35

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Salopek	122	8	1	2	3
Silas Walters	95	3	0	0	12
Ty Wise	89	11	5	2	1
Eli Blakey	89	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brian Ugwu	59	15	8	16	3
Corey Suttle	36	8	6	10	0
Ty Wise	89	11	5	2	1
Adam Trick	37	6	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Raion Strader	53	0	17
Silas Walters	95	3	12
William Hardrick	26	0	4

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	227	374	61%	2755	14	8	7.4
Jackson Brousseau	3	6	50%	15	0	1	2.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Avery Morrow	184	1006	9	5.5	73
Justin Marshall	156	767	4	4.9	42
Jalen Dupree	25	153	1	6.1	24
Keegan Holles	15	97	1	6.5	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Goodie	21	436	4	20.8	85
Jamari Person	35	373	1	10.7	60
Armani Winfield (Tr)	38	341	2	9.0	62
Tory Horton	25	331	1	13.2	52

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Buom Jock	97	3	0	2	3
Chase Wilson	97	3	0	6	1
Jack Howell	86	1	0	0	5
Henry Blackburn	79	1	1	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)	41	10	6	8	2
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji	35	6	3	5	1
James Mitchell	38	6	2	5	1
Ayden Hector	40	5	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Elias Larry (Tr)	38	3	1	9
Dom Jones	60	2	0	8
Dominic Morris	54	2	0	8