Fresno State at Hawai'i - 2025 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsHawai
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (11:59 PM EDT)
Fresno State -2.5 (47.5) (-130)  Open: -3.5
Fresno State 23 - Hawai'i: 21  (Mountain West)

 
Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
Wind: 12.7 MPH
HAW 3rd straight Home Game
HAW is playing their 4th straight game
FRES is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Hawai'i -2  (SP+ FRES -0)

Projected Score: FRES: 24 - HAW: 26 (49)
FRES Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
FRES Travel: 2515 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
 
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.547.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 20 - 17UN
Fri 10/10 Fresno State at Colorado State-5.547.5L 21 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.046.5L 0 - 23UN
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+17.547.5W 30 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-3.040.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-1.550.5L 17 - 28UN
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-3.546.0W 41 - 14OY
Sat 12/27 Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-5.041.0W 18 - 3UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.547.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+7.052.5W 44 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.557.5W 44 - 26OY
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+2.553.5W 31 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.555.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.548.5W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21 Hawai'i at UNLV+2.564.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming-8.545.0W 27 - 7UY
Wed 12/24 Hawai'i vs California-1.550.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 7, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#105 (.11)39% (110)25.838% (120)2.79 (101)15741% (78)1673.29 (111)#40 (.1)39% (32)18.843% (77)35% (14)3.26 (34)55.21.51.8
HAW#62 (.18)41% (88)2938% (118)2.8 (98)9844% (49)2673.77 (61)#72 (.17)42% (67)24.143% (74)40% (58)3.35 (41)61.51.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1325.826.338.6%3.291.5183241571674.753%45%38%41%15%.11
HAW Defense1324.11741.6%3.351.1 - - - - - 46%52%43%40%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1318.824.838.8%3.261.8 - - - - - 50%49%43%35%18%.1
HAW Offense13293141.2%3.771.319365982673.737%62%38%44%12%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1329:2017.536%40%655.21.51.84.91.6333.6
Hawai'i1329:3718.645%53%7.161.51.31.14.62.2329.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1353% (41)38% (120)33.3157.14.722 (49).02 (114)2.79 (101)73% (59)10% (86)1.01 (51)
HAW Defense1346% (26)43% (74) - - - - .1 (66)3.21 (119)81% (124)9% (82)0.97 (76)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1350% (62)43% (77) - - - - .09 (62)3 (93)74% (92)10% (66)0.82 (8)
HAW Offense1337% (133)38% (118)26.397.53.78 (122).02 (118)2.8 (98)59% (131)7% (13)0.91 (90)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1345% (99)41% (78)17.227166.56.29.713 (75)13 (127).25 (64)1.5 (78)33% (97)30% (73).31 (70)5% (48)2 (86)
HAW Defense1352% (110)40% (58) - - - - - - 8 (55).25 (71)1.6 (77)34% (36)31% (82).42 (124)7% (41)2.2 (118)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1349% (75)35% (14) - - - - - - 19 (12).14 (24)1.6 (91)33% (43)27% (30).17 (24)8% (12)1.8 (14)
HAW Offense1362% (3)44% (49)24.337.8267.47.11126 (14)12 (127).31 (47)1.6 (61)34% (113)33% (31).37 (41)5% (39)2.2 (17)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -8.69  #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 0.27  #127
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 8.96  #73
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #67
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #96
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.5  #43

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -8.69   Hawai'i: -1.96

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 1.1   Hawai'i: 0.9




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -1.96  #108
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 1.56  #118
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 11.38  #87
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #75
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #65

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 26
Fresno State 24


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 29
Hawai'i 24

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Hawai'i 26
Fresno State 23

Total Points: 49
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 7 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Hawai'i21Fresno State23Fresno State -2.5Hawai'i47.5Under
202411/02Fresno State20Hawai'i21Fresno State -12Hawai'i45.5Under
202211/05Fresno State55Hawai'i13Fresno State -27Fresno State62.0Over
202110/02Hawai'i27Fresno State24Fresno State -10.5Hawai'i64.5Under
202010/24Fresno State19Hawai'i34Fresno State -2.5Hawai'i64.5Under
201911/02Hawai'i38Fresno State41Hawai'i -2Fresno State69.5Over
201810/27Fresno State50Hawai'i20Fresno State -24.5Fresno State59.5Over
201711/11Hawai'i21Fresno State31Fresno State -10NA53.0Under
201611/19Fresno State13Hawai'i14Hawai'i -2.5Fresno State54.5Under
201511/14Hawai'i14Fresno State42Hawai'i -4Fresno State53.0Over
201411/29Fresno State28Hawai'i21Fresno State -12Hawai'i0
201309/29Hawai'i37Fresno State42Fresno State -18.5Hawai'i0
201211/03Fresno State45Hawai'i10
201111/19Hawai'i21Fresno State24
201010/09Fresno State27Hawai'i49
200910/10Hawai'i17Fresno State42
200810/04Fresno State29Hawai'i32
200711/10Hawai'i37Fresno State30
200610/14Fresno State37Hawai'i68
200510/29Hawai'i13Fresno State27
200411/12Fresno State70Hawai'i14
200310/12Hawai'i55Fresno State28
200210/25Fresno State21Hawai'i31
200110/26Hawai'i38Fresno State34
200011/03Fresno State45Hawai'i27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i1164 Overs
Fresno State1456 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 156 - 52 - 54 - 0
Road Teams15 - 105 - 60 - 45 - 2

(#102) FRES at (#108) HAW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFRESHAW
Power RatePwr #102 #108
SP+SP+ #67 #68
Perf GradeGrade #65 #100
OffenseOff #72 #107
DefenseDef #66 #96
Spec TeamsST #31 #71
TalentTal #80 #125
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
Fresno State Notes
(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report
Hawai'i Notes
(10/19) Great W @ CSU, Alejado another 300+. Bowling
(10/19) Great job by Chang & staff, 6-2 and bowling
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
Hawai'i Injury Report
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffHAW Def
Perf GradePerf #72 #96
SuccessSuc #110 #67
ExplosiveExp #55 #87
PPAPPA #105 #72
PowerPwr #127 #87
SP+SP+ #96 #65
Pts POPPO #111 #41
HavocHav #65 #63
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #34 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #120 #74
Run ExplRExp #51 #76
PPAExp #114 #66
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #101 #119
Stuff RateStuff #91 #117
TackleTak -  #128
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #91 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #78 #58
Pass ExplPExl #78 #77
PPAExp #64 #71
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #21 #29
F7 HavocF7 #86 #82
DB HavocDB #48 #41
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffFRES Def
Perf GradePerf #107 #66
SuccessSuc #88 #32
ExplosiveExp #29 #20
PPAPPA #62 #40
PowerPwr #118 #73
SP+SP+ #75 #43
Pts POPPO #61 #34
HavocHav #16 #32
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffFRES Def
Run GameRun #111 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #77
Run ExplRExp #90 #8
PPAExp #118 #62
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #98 #93
Stuff RateStuff #98 #50
TackleTak -  #98
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffFRES Def
Pass GamePass #45 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #49 #14
Pass ExplPExl #61 #91
PPAExp #47 #24
Pass Block/RushP Blk #109 #62
F7 HavocF7 #13 #66
DB HavocDB #39 #12
Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 82° - Wind: 13 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Fresno State 2.5 (47.5)
Fresno State won at Hawai'i this year (23-21)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Fresno State last year (21-20)
Fresno State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (55-13)

  
FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)19327869%202513117.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)479649%354123.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)11069966.469
Bryson Donelson14258354.157
Brandon Ramirez6027134.519
Johnathan Arceneaux4026726.758
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman52642612.351
Richie Anderson32321310.025
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)2825509.141
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622826.323

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)966013
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Camryn Bracha523004
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
Korey Foreman196422
Jahzon Jacks327430
Deijon Laffitte275303
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry260007
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Alzillion Hamilton342015

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Luke Weaver6310560%628636.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims12255934.643
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Christian Vaughn199705.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)499631219.778
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Brandon White (Tr)38399210.546
Karsyn Pupunu3330609.322

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Peter Manuma733117
Jalen Smith543102
Jamih Otis543040
Elijah Palmer5170010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III288730
De'jon Benton (Tr)299670
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Qwyn Williams (Tr)285320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Peter Manuma733117
Virdel Edwards311006