Fresno State at Hawai'i - 2025 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsHawai
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (11:59 PM EDT)
Fresno State -2.5 (47.5) (-130)  Open: -3.5
Fresno State 23 - Hawai'i: 21  (Mountain West)

 
Bulldogs (6 - 3) (4 - 5 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 22 (23 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 4.3 (#47)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
Wind: 12.7 MPH
HAW 3rd straight Home Game
HAW is playing their 4th straight game
FRES is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Hawai'i -1  (SP+ FRES -2.5)

Projected Score: FRES: 24 - HAW: 25 (48)
FRES Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
FRES Travel: 2515 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (6 - 3) (6 - 3 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (13 - 25)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (30 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#58)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
 
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.547.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 20 - 17UN
Fri 10/10 Fresno State at Colorado State-5.547.5L 21 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.046.5L 0 - 23UN
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+17.547.5W 30 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-0.5
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-6
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State+1.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Hawai'i vs Stanford-1.553.5W 23 - 20UY
Sat 8/30 Hawai'i at Arizona+13.555.5L 6 - 40UN
Sat 9/6 Hawai'i vs Sam Houston-7.047.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Hawai'i vs Portland State-35.554.5W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/20 Hawai'i vs Fresno State+2.547.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 9/27 Hawai'i at Air Force+7.052.5W 44 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Hawai'i vs Utah State+1.557.5W 44 - 26OY
Sat 10/18 Hawai'i at Colorado State+2.553.5W 31 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Hawai'i at San José State+2.555.5L 38 - 45ON
Sat 11/8 Hawai'i vs San Diego State+6.547.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/21 Hawai'i at UNLV+6.5
Sat 11/29 Hawai'i vs Wyoming+1

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 7, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#92 (.13)43% (66)26.141% (90)2.33 (117)15446% (32)1943.47 (98)#97 (.19)41% (70)21.842% (65)41% (63)3.8 (80)60.61.81.8
HAW#74 (.17)41% (90)29.738% (113)2.35 (115)10543% (64)3083.68 (88)#88 (.18)40% (51)25.743% (75)38% (34)3.83 (83)61.21.60.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
HAW#82 (.17)44% (52)46% (45)3.29 (26)9944% (50)2683.81 (81)#81 (.19)42% (71)45% (85)40% (58)4.15 (103)70.31.60.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense926.123.443%3.471.8203481541944.549%49%41%46%17%.13
HAW Defense925.718.440.1%3.830.9 - - - - - 48%51%43%38%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense921.82741.3%3.81.8 - - - - - 50%49%42%41%17%.19
HAW Offense929.729.641%3.681.6224121053083.835%64%38%43%14%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State931:1519.740%27%6.760.61.81.85.61.9332.7
Hawai'i932:5321.846%64%7.161.21.60.94.92.3129.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense949% (76)41% (90)34154.34.516 (49)-.04 (129)2.33 (117)76% (45)11% (110)0.95 (72)
HAW Defense948% (42)43% (75) - - - - .11 (91)3.18 (119)81% (126)10% (57)1.05 (107)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense950% (64)42% (65) - - - - .1 (85)2.98 (99)80% (121)10% (54)0.85 (23)
HAW Offense935% (136)38% (113)27.6104.73.87 (122)- (121)2.35 (115)67% (96)8% (22)0.9 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense949% (67)46% (32)19.330.1193.96.41010 (75)11 (127).34 (40)1.5 (87)32% (84)34% (45).33 (63)6% (73)2 (61)
HAW Defense951% (95)38% (34) - - - - - - 5 (55).27 (89)1.7 (117)33% (39)31% (84).46 (127)7% (35)2.3 (133)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense949% (66)41% (63) - - - - - - 12 (12).28 (94)1.7 (118)33% (57)30% (81).29 (75)7% (30)1.9 (44)
HAW Offense964% (1)43% (64)29.145.3307.66.810.620 (14)9 (127).28 (64)1.5 (69)34% (117)34% (44).37 (51)6% (81)2.1 (33)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -11.29  #117
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 1.98  #114
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 13.27  #104
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.7 - 4.3
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5  #77
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.9  #98
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #64

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -11.29   Hawai'i: -5.955

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -2.5   Hawai'i: -5.1




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -5.955  #118
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 1.32  #119
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 13.13  #102
2025 Talent Rating: 454.00  #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Hawai'i's 2025 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Hawai'i's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1  #89
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #89
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #85

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 21.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 3
Record vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 25
Fresno State 24


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Hawai'i 25
Fresno State 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Hawai'i 27
Fresno State 23

Total Points: 50
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 25.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.4

Hawai'i's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Hawai'i21Fresno State23Fresno State -2.5Hawai'i47.5Under
202411/02Fresno State20Hawai'i21Fresno State -12Hawai'i45.5Under
202211/05Fresno State55Hawai'i13Fresno State -27Fresno State62.0Over
202110/02Hawai'i27Fresno State24Fresno State -10.5Hawai'i64.5Under
202010/24Fresno State19Hawai'i34Fresno State -2.5Hawai'i64.5Under
201911/02Hawai'i38Fresno State41Hawai'i -2Fresno State69.5Over
201810/27Fresno State50Hawai'i20Fresno State -24.5Fresno State59.5Over
201711/11Hawai'i21Fresno State31Fresno State -10NA53.0Under
201611/19Fresno State13Hawai'i14Hawai'i -2.5Fresno State54.5Under
201511/14Hawai'i14Fresno State42Hawai'i -4Fresno State53.0Over
201411/29Fresno State28Hawai'i21Fresno State -12Hawai'i0
201309/29Hawai'i37Fresno State42Fresno State -18.5Hawai'i0
201211/03Fresno State45Hawai'i10
201111/19Hawai'i21Fresno State24
201010/09Fresno State27Hawai'i49
200910/10Hawai'i17Fresno State42
200810/04Fresno State29Hawai'i32
200711/10Hawai'i37Fresno State30
200610/14Fresno State37Hawai'i68
200510/29Hawai'i13Fresno State27
200411/12Fresno State70Hawai'i14
200310/12Hawai'i55Fresno State28
200210/25Fresno State21Hawai'i31
200110/26Hawai'i38Fresno State34
200011/03Fresno State45Hawai'i27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i1164 Overs
Fresno State1456 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 156 - 52 - 54 - 0
Road Teams15 - 105 - 60 - 45 - 2

(#117) FRES at (#118) HAW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFRESHAW
Power RatePwr #117 #118
SP+SP+ #77 #89
Perf GradeGrade #76 #100
OffenseOff #72 #115
DefenseDef #79 #76
Spec TeamsST #50 #66
TalentTal #80 #125
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
Fresno State Notes
(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report
Hawai'i Notes
(10/19) Great W @ CSU, Alejado another 300+. Bowling
(10/19) Great job by Chang & staff, 6-2 and bowling
(10/9) Def played hard vs Fresno, good bounce back W AFA
(9/24) QB Alejado playing hurt and looks defeated
(8/23) Def top 5 tacklers return from 2024
(8/1) QB M. Alejado fun find late LY, but vs bad teams
(8/1) Front 7 are strength of defense, DL improved?
(8/1) Chang is 2-15 on the road & road sched rough
(8/1) 1/2 schedule by Sept 27 when at Air Force, yikes
(6/14) WR good, Ashlock & Cenacle back. Have depth
(4/7) RB no used much, JAGs at best
(4/7) Portal WR Harris (Stan) may take #2 job
Hawai'i Injury Report
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FRES OffHAW Def
Perf GradePerf #72 #76
SuccessSuc #66 #51
ExplosiveExp #74 #114
PPAPPA #92 #88
PowerPwr #114 #102
SP+SP+ #98 #85
Pts POPPO #98 #83
HavocHav #92 #47
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FRES OffHAW Def
Run GameRun #12 #120
Run SuccessRSuc #90 #75
Run ExplRExp #72 #107
PPAExp #129 #91
Run BlockR Blk #62 -
OL YdsOLY #117 #119
Stuff RateStuff #101 #102
TackleTak -  #115
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
FRES OffHAW Def
Pass GamePass #97 #40
Pass SuccessPSuc #32 #34
Pass ExplPExl #87 #117
PPAExp #40 #89
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #24 #23
F7 HavocF7 #110 #57
DB HavocDB #73 #35
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCatHAW OffFRES Def
Perf GradePerf #115 #79
SuccessSuc #90 #70
ExplosiveExp #28 #82
PPAPPA #74 #97
PowerPwr #119 #104
SP+SP+ #89 #64
Pts POPPO #88 #80
HavocHav #44 #41
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat
HAW OffFRES Def
Run GameRun #127 #93
Run SuccessRSuc #113 #65
Run ExplRExp #98 #23
PPAExp #121 #85
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #115 #99
Stuff RateStuff #60 #81
TackleTak -  #92
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 64%, Run: 36%
CategoryCatHAW OffFRES Def
Pass GamePass #70 #55
Pass SuccessPSuc #64 #63
Pass ExplPExl #69 #118
PPAExp #64 #94
Pass Block/RushP Blk #107 #90
F7 HavocF7 #22 #54
DB HavocDB #81 #30
Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 82° - Wind: 13 mph
Rematch from Week 4
Fresno State 2.5 (47.5)
Fresno State won at Hawai'i this year (23-21)

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Fresno State last year (21-20)
Fresno State beat Hawai'i in 2022 (55-13)

  
FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)13920269%14861097.4
Carson Conklin (Tr)356951%259023.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)7949056.268
Bryson Donelson10545644.357
Brandon Ramirez3416324.819
Elijah Gilliam2111535.525
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman31353411.430
Richie Anderson2423329.724
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)19197010.441
Rayshon Luke (Tr)2516726.723

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)756001
Simeon Harris (Tr)376102
Finn Claypool (Tr)347641
Camryn Bracha323000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)347641
Korey Foreman155311
Jahzon Jacks255330
Deijon Laffitte245302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry180006
Ryan Wilson172103
K'Vion Thunderbird (Tr)322013

HAW's OC Timmy Chang (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado19930266%21241567.0
Luke Weaver6110260%600535.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Landon Sims9443934.743
Cam Barfield4420534.735
Micah Alejado587811.330
Luke Weaver277302.713
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jackson Harris (Tr)35601717.275
Pofele Ashlock55598610.947
Brandon White (Tr)29312110.846
Landon Sims3023127.728

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamih Otis483040
Peter Manuma471115
Elijah Palmer405006
Jalen Smith391001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackie Johnson III175530
De'jon Benton (Tr)237450
Qwyn Williams (Tr)225310
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina265230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer405006
Kilinahe Mendiola-Jensen270005
Virdel Edwards251005