Miami (OH) at Ohio - 2025 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, November 4th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Ohio -2.5 (50.5) (-140) Open: -3.5 | 50.5
Ohio 24 - Miami (OH): 20 (Mid-American)

RedHawks (7 - 7) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (64 - 67)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (20 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 6.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)

M-OH coming off BYE
OHIO coming off BYE
Our Line: Ohio -5 (SP+ M-OH -0.5)
Projected Score: M-OH: 22 - OHIO: 27 (49)
OHIO Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
M-OH Travel: 141 miles

Bobcats (9 - 4) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brian Smith (1 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (36 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
M-OH Players
OHIO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Miami (OH) at Wisconsin	+17.5	40.5	L 0 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Miami (OH) at Rutgers	+15.5	45.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Miami (OH) vs UNLV	+2.5	49.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/27	Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood	-22.5	49.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois	-4.5	38.5	W 25 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Miami (OH) at Akron	-11.5	47.5	W 20 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan	-12.5	47.5	W 44 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan	-2.5	40.5	W 26 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Miami (OH) at Ohio	+2.5	50.5	L 20 - 24	U	N
Wed 11/12	Miami (OH) vs Toledo	+6.5	44.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Wed 11/19	Miami (OH) at Buffalo	-2.5	38.5	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Miami (OH) vs Ball State	-16.5	40.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 12/6	Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan	+2.5	44.5	L 13 - 23	U	N
Sat 12/27	Miami (OH) vs Fresno State	+5.0	41.0	L 3 - 18	U	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule

Ohio's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Ohio at Rutgers	+11.5	46.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Ohio vs West Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Ohio at Ohio State	+28.0	49.0	L 9 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Ohio vs Gardner-Webb	-30.5	55.0	W 52 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/27	Ohio vs Bowling Green	-7.5	49.5	W 35 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Ohio at Ball State	-14.0	52.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Ohio vs Northern Illinois	-10.5	41.5	W 48 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Ohio at Eastern Michigan	-11.5	60.5	W 28 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	-2.5	50.5	W 24 - 20	U	Y
Tue 11/11	Ohio at Western Michigan	+1.5	46.5	L 13 - 17	U	N
Tue 11/18	Ohio vs Massachusetts	-34.5	53.5	W 42 - 14	O	N
Fri 11/28	Ohio at Buffalo	-7.0	44.5	W 31 - 26	O	N
Tue 12/23	Ohio vs UNLV	+6.5	64.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Ohio's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#95 (.15)	41% (97)	23.5	38% (119)	3.1 (51)	121	44% (48)	204	3.43 (108)	#38 (.12)	44% (92)	21.7	46% (100)	42% (74)	2.91 (6)	38.6	1.1	1.4
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)	27.8	47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)	21.9	34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
OHIO		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Offense	14	23.5	19.8	40.7%	3.43	1.1	16	325	121	204	4.5	45%	55%	38%	44%	18%	.15
OHIO Defense	14	21.9	20	36.9%	3.79	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	34%	40%	20%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Defense	14	21.7	21.2	43.6%	2.91	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	46%	42%	18%	.12
OHIO Offense	14	27.8	36.3	45.8%	4.15	1.6	22	406	214	193	5.2	59%	41%	47%	45%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami (OH)	14	27:07	15.5	33%	40%	4.8	38.6	1.1	1.4	4.9	2.1	0	39.1
Ohio	14	32:43	21.9	48%	60%	5.5	44.9	1.6	1.5	6.3	2.5	3	27.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense	14	45% (108)	38% (119)	26.6	120.5	4.5	9 (125)	.1 (90)	3.1 (51)	69% (98)	11% (86)	0.96 (70)
OHIO Defense	14	45% (15)	34% (3)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (6)	2.49 (8)	74% (69)	13% (13)	1 (72)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense	14	47% (36)	46% (100)	-	-	-	-	.13 (74)	3.24 (102)	68% (38)	10% (67)	0.88 (21)
OHIO Offense	14	59% (13)	47% (35)	40.7	213.5	5.2	35 (8)	.24 (18)	3.1 (52)	78% (31)	9% (52)	1.12 (13)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense	14	55% (28)	44% (48)	15.1	26.6	204.3	7.7	13.5	23 (41)	12 (85)	.22 (87)	1.5 (90)	33% (99)	30% (83)	.27 (90)	7% (111)	2 (81)
OHIO Defense	14	54% (121)	40% (57)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.22 (60)	1.5 (53)	35% (22)	24% (2)	.18 (19)	7% (40)	2.2 (107)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense	14	52% (102)	42% (74)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.11 (18)	1.2 (1)	30% (99)	30% (61)	.17 (14)	8% (7)	1.6 (4)
OHIO Offense	14	41% (119)	45% (35)	15.5	24.7	192.5	7.8	12.4	15 (98)	12 (85)	.23 (80)	1.4 (128)	29% (32)	37% (13)	.45 (23)	5% (43)	1.8 (120)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -10.70 #104
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 3.65 #123
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 14.35 #72
2025 Talent Rating: 674.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 6.5
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4 #82
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #114
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #54

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -10.70 Ohio: -1.96

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -3.4 Ohio: -4.0

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -1.96 #79
Ohio's Offense Rating: 10.07 #86
Ohio's Defense Rating: 14.99 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 574.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Ohio's 2025 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
Ohio's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.0 #84
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.2

Miami (OH)'s 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio 27
Miami (OH) 22

Projected Total Points: 49

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.3
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

Ohio's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/04	Ohio	24	Miami (OH)	20	Ohio -2.5	Ohio	50.5	Under
2024	10/19	Miami (OH)	30	Ohio	20	Miami (OH) -3.5	Miami (OH)	43.5	Over
2024	12/07	Miami (OH)	3	Ohio	38	Miami (OH) -2.5	Ohio	43.5	Under
2023	10/28	Ohio	16	Miami (OH)	30	Ohio -7.5	Miami (OH)	39.0	Over
2022	11/08	Miami (OH)	21	Ohio	37	Ohio -2.5	Ohio	52.0	Over
2021	11/02	Ohio	35	Miami (OH)	33	Miami (OH) -7	Ohio	54.5	Over
2019	11/06	Ohio	21	Miami (OH)	24	Ohio -7	Miami (OH)	57.5	Under
2018	11/07	Miami (OH)	30	Ohio	28	Ohio -4.5	Miami (OH)	59.0	Under
2017	10/31	Ohio	45	Miami (OH)	28	Ohio -7	Ohio	53.5	Over
2016	10/01	Miami (OH)	7	Ohio	17	Ohio -3.5	Ohio	50.0	Under
2015	10/10	Ohio	34	Miami (OH)	3	Ohio -17.5	Ohio	50.5	Under
2014	11/25	Miami (OH)	21	Ohio	24	Ohio -3	NA	52.5	Under
2013	10/26	Ohio	41	Miami (OH)	16	Ohio -24	Ohio	0
2012	10/27	Miami (OH)	23	Ohio	20
2011	11/22	Ohio	21	Miami (OH)	14
2010	10/23	Miami (OH)	13	Ohio	34
2009	10/17	Ohio	28	Miami (OH)	7
2008	11/28	Miami (OH)	26	Ohio	41
2007	11/24	Ohio	38	Miami (OH)	29
2006	11/24	Miami (OH)	24	Ohio	34
2005	11/21	Ohio	7	Miami (OH)	38
2004	09/18	Miami (OH)	40	Ohio	20
2003	11/22	Ohio	31	Miami (OH)	49
2002	11/02	Miami (OH)	38	Ohio	20
2001	10/20	Ohio	24	Miami (OH)	36
2000	11/03	Miami (OH)	27	Ohio	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio	15	8	5 Overs
Miami (OH)	11	4	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 12	7 - 5	5 - 3	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 14	5 - 7	2 - 2	3 - 5

(#104) M-OH at (#79) OHIO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	M-OH	OHIO
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#104	#79
SP+SP+	#82	#84
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#73
OffenseOff	#86	#44
DefenseDef	#35	#91
Spec TeamsST	#61	#106
TalentTal	#81	#101
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#101

Miami (OH) Notes(11/29) Beat Ball St to make the MAC title game vs WMU
(11/20) QB Thomas Gotkowski better option in W vs Buff
(11/20) Beat Buff due to 3 TOs, even BS. Pass Def torched
(11/14) QB Dequan Finn quit the team.
(11/13) QB2 Hesson cannot play. 11/38 w/ 3 INT vs Tol
(11/4) Can't trust Dequan Finn. Will find a way to lose
(10/31) #2 Off in MAC, best OL, Avg DL, QB Finn meh
(10/31) 5-1 outside of paycheck games, L to UNLV by 3
(10/19) 3-0 in MAC play, undefeated after paycheck games
(10/19) Run heavy Off, QB Finn not good, Def inconsistent
(9/21) Nearly beat UNLV, OG'd 513-396. 1-8 on 3rd down
(8/30) Off awful vs Wisky, Finn cannot play? Def good
Miami (OH) Injury Report

Ohio Notes(12/17) HC Smith fired. Weird situation
(11/13) WMU controls MAC after beating Ohio, Navarro meh
(11/4) Big W over Miami OH. Even game, ST's, clutch
(10/31) Beat WVU, 4-2 w/o paycheck games. Def meh
(10/31) QB Navarro decent, RB Bangura leads MAC, OL #2
(10/31) Top Off in MAC w/ WR Hendricks & RB Bangura
(9/22) Def all nearly 500 yds to Gardner Webb?
(8/29) Navarro great vs Gers, but Pass Def torched
(8/28) RB S Bangura - 2k career yds (TR Back, inj LY)
(7/27) WR rebuild, Hendricks good LY, have some depth
(5/5) QB Navarro back, JAG passer but strong runner
(5/5) RB rebuild, Brune starter in spring, track runner
Ohio Injury Report

Miami (OH) on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	OHIO Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#86	#91
SuccessSuc	#97	#10
ExplosiveExp	#61	#92
PPAPPA	#95	#23
PowerPwr	#123	#77
SP+SP+	#114	#61
Pts POPPO	#108	#68
HavocHav	#107	#14

Miami (OH) Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#95	#97
Run SuccessRSuc	#119	#3
Run ExplRExp	#70	#72
PPAExp	#90	#6
Run BlockR Blk	#31	-
OL YdsOLY	#51	#8
Stuff RateStuff	#75	#13
TackleTak	-	#97

Miami (OH) Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	M-OH Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#77
Pass SuccessPSuc	#48	#57
Pass ExplPExl	#90	#53
PPAExp	#87	#60
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#133	#73
F7 HavocF7	#86	#13
DB HavocDB	#111	#40

Ohio on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	M-OH Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#44	#35
SuccessSuc	#30	#92
ExplosiveExp	#92	#2
PPAPPA	#40	#38
PowerPwr	#86	#72
SP+SP+	#98	#54
Pts POPPO	#47	#6
HavocHav	#42	#35

Ohio Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	M-OH Def
Run GameRun	#48	#60
Run SuccessRSuc	#35	#100
Run ExplRExp	#13	#21
PPAExp	#18	#74
Run BlockR Blk	#19	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#102
Stuff RateStuff	#61	#125
TackleTak	-	#70

Ohio Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	OHIO Off	M-OH Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#58
Pass SuccessPSuc	#35	#74
Pass ExplPExl	#128	#1
PPAExp	#80	#18
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#70	#11
F7 HavocF7	#52	#67
DB HavocDB	#43	#7

Program Comparison
OHIO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Peden Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 45°

Rematch from Week 11
Ohio -2.5 (50.5)
Ohio won vs Miami (OH) this year (24-20)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Miami (OH) last year (24-20)
Ohio beat Miami (OH) in 2024 (38-3)
Miami (OH) beat Ohio in 2023 (30-16)

M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dequan Finn (Tr)	106	181	59%	1451	9	6	8.0
Henry Hesson	39	98	40%	596	4	3	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Brunson	164	767	4	4.7	60
Dequan Finn (Tr)	89	395	4	4.4	39
D'Shawntae Jones	63	277	7	4.4	46
Kenny Tracy	49	272	1	5.6	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kamryn Perry	43	976	6	22.7	66
Cole Weaver	45	642	1	14.3	36
Keith Reynolds (Tr)	36	352	1	9.8	69
Deion Colzie (Tr)	11	178	1	16.2	44

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eli Blakey	118	5	1	3	8
Jackson Kuwatch	101	10	5	1	1
Corban Hondru	84	7	3	7	2
Silas Walters	71	3	1	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Adam Trick	57	12	8	12	4
Jackson Kuwatch	101	10	5	1	1
Nasir Washington	17	6	4	1	0
Bai Jobe (Tr)	15	4	4	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eli Blakey	118	5	1	3	8
Silas Walters	71	3	1	0	7
Kaleb Martin	31	0	0	0	7

OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Parker Navarro	188	303	62%	2375	14	11	7.8
Nick Poulos	4	8	50%	19	0	0	2.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sieh Bangura (Tr)	240	1392	15	5.8	49
Parker Navarro	161	886	9	5.5	44
Duncan Brune	120	585	8	4.9	66
Jake Bruno	1	48	0	48.0	48

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Hendricks	71	1037	7	14.6	67
Rodney Harris II	30	419	2	14.0	49
Mason Williams	27	285	3	10.6	30
Caleb Gossett	12	162	0	13.5	35

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC John Hauser (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Thomeson	86	7	0	2	1
Adonis Williams Jr.	75	4	1	1	1
Charlie Christopher	63	3	2	2	2
Michael Molnar	62	5	2	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Crable	28	8	6	4	4
Anas Luqman (Tr)	33	9	4	5	2
Joseph Marsh (Tr)	8	2	2	0	0
Derek Reagans	8	2	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tank Pearson	49	0	0	0	8
Jack Fries	54	3	1	1	5
Jay Crable	28	8	6	4	4