Nevada at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Nevada Wolf Pack at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, October 4th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -12.5 (45.5) (-520) Open: -15.5
Fresno State 20 - Nevada: 17 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

NEV coming off BYE
FRES coming off BYE
Our Line: Fresno State -17.5 (SP+ FRES -15)
Projected Score: NEV: 15 - FRES: 32 (47)
FRES Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
NEV Travel: 189 miles

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Nevada at Penn State	+45.5	58.5	L 11 - 46	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Nevada vs Sacramento State	-8.0	56.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/13	Nevada vs Middle Tennessee	-9.0	50.0	L 13 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/20	Nevada at Western Kentucky	+8.5	54.5	L 16 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Nevada at Fresno State	+12.5	45.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Nevada vs San Diego State	+6.5	42.5	L 10 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/18	Nevada at New Mexico	+14.0	49.5	L 22 - 24	U	Y
Fri 10/24	Nevada vs Boise State	+20.5	51.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Nevada at Utah State	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/15	Nevada vs San José State	+10.0	49.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Nevada at Wyoming	+6.0	39.5	W 13 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Nevada vs UNLV	+7.5	53.0	L 17 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Fresno State at Kansas	+14.0	51.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 8/30	Fresno State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	54.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Fresno State at Oregon State	+1.0	45.5	W 36 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Fresno State vs Southern	-37.5	51.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Fresno State vs Nevada	-12.5	45.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Fri 10/10	Fresno State at Colorado State	-5.5	47.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Fresno State vs San Diego State	+3.0	46.5	L 0 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/1	Fresno State at Boise State	+17.5	47.5	W 30 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-3.0	40.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Fresno State vs Utah State	-1.5	50.5	L 17 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/29	Fresno State at San José State	-3.5	46.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/27	Fresno State vs Miami (OH)	-5.0	41.0	W 18 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#129 (.02)	37% (124)	17.6	37% (123)	2.83 (86)	155	36% (118)	147	2.67 (133)	#94 (.19)	44% (93)	27.5	44% (85)	43% (96)	4.15 (112)	45.2	2.3	1.3
FRES	#106 (.11)	39% (111)	25.8	38% (120)	2.79 (102)	171	41% (78)	183	3.29 (111)	#41 (.11)	39% (32)	18.8	43% (78)	35% (13)	3.26 (33)	60.6	1.5	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	12	17.6	15.5	36.6%	2.67	2.3	17	302	155	147	4.5	56%	42%	37%	36%	17%	.02
FRES Defense	13	18.8	15.3	38.9%	3.26	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	35%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	12	27.5	29.8	43.5%	4.15	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	44%	43%	14%	.19
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.5	38.6%	3.29	1.5	19	354	171	183	4.6	53%	45%	38%	41%	15%	.11

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	12	30:19	17.3	32%	54%	5.3	45.2	2.3	1.3	5.3	1.6	3	30.4
Fresno State	13	32:19	18.9	36%	43%	6.6	60.6	1.5	2	5.2	1.8	3	33.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	12	56% (23)	37% (123)	34.6	155.3	4.5	9 (132)	.07 (92)	2.83 (86)	72% (68)	11% (114)	1.04 (36)
FRES Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (78)	-	-	-	-	.09 (61)	3 (92)	74% (91)	10% (70)	0.82 (8)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	12	50% (66)	44% (85)	-	-	-	-	.22 (126)	3.08 (104)	72% (78)	9% (93)	1.05 (109)
FRES Offense	13	53% (40)	38% (120)	37.1	170.7	4.6	22 (49)	.02 (114)	2.79 (102)	73% (57)	10% (87)	1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	12	42% (114)	36% (118)	15.2	25.7	147.2	5.7	9.7	10 (121)	17 (134)	-.02 (135)	1.4 (124)	34% (109)	24% (130)	-.05 (136)	6% (86)	1.6 (136)
FRES Defense	13	49% (76)	35% (13)	-	-	-	-	-	-	20 (12)	.15 (25)	1.6 (94)	33% (43)	27% (33)	.19 (24)	8% (13)	1.8 (18)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	12	48% (71)	43% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (75)	.18 (38)	1.3 (2)	32% (65)	28% (38)	.26 (56)	6% (86)	1.8 (16)
FRES Offense	13	45% (99)	41% (78)	18.4	28.7	183.4	6.4	10	14 (75)	13 (127)	.25 (64)	1.5 (77)	33% (97)	30% (72)	.31 (69)	5% (45)	2 (86)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -24.57 #133
Nevada's Offense Rating: -0.20 #134
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.37 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 486.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.1 #118
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #78

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -24.57 Fresno State: -1.875

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -14.1 Fresno State: 1.1

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -1.875 #101
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 5.63 #116
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 15.48 #83
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #67
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #96
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.5 #43

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 32
Nevada 15

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 39
Nevada 13

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 28
Nevada 17

Total Points: 45

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Fresno State	20	Nevada	17	Fresno State -12.5	Nevada	45.5	Under
2024	10/18	Nevada	21	Fresno State	24	Fresno State -3	NA	50.0	Under
2023	09/30	Fresno State	27	Nevada	9	Fresno State -25.5	Nevada	50.5	Under
2022	11/19	Nevada	14	Fresno State	41	Fresno State -22.5	Fresno State	54.0	Over
2021	10/23	Fresno State	34	Nevada	32	Fresno State -3.5	Nevada	64.5	Over
2020	12/05	Nevada	37	Fresno State	26	Nevada -6.5	Nevada	59.0	Over
2019	11/23	Fresno State	28	Nevada	35	Fresno State -13.5	Nevada	51.5	Over
2018	10/06	Nevada	3	Fresno State	21	Fresno State -15	Fresno State	59.0	Under
2017	09/30	Fresno State	41	Nevada	21	Fresno State -7.5	Fresno State	59.5	Over
2016	10/08	Nevada	27	Fresno State	22	Nevada -11.5	Fresno State	54.0	Under
2015	11/05	Fresno State	16	Nevada	30	Nevada -3.5	Nevada	54.0	Under
2014	11/22	Nevada	20	Fresno State	40	Nevada -6.5	Fresno State	0
2013	11/02	Fresno State	41	Nevada	23	Fresno State -23	Nevada	0
2012	11/10	Nevada	36	Fresno State	52
2011	10/22	Nevada	45	Fresno State	38
2010	11/13	Fresno State	34	Nevada	35
2009	11/14	Nevada	52	Fresno State	14
2008	11/07	Fresno State	28	Nevada	41
2007	10/06	Nevada	41	Fresno State	49
2006	09/01	Fresno State	28	Nevada	19
2005	11/26	Nevada	38	Fresno State	35
2004	11/20	Fresno State	54	Nevada	17
2003	11/08	Nevada	10	Fresno State	27
2001	11/17	Nevada	14	Fresno State	61
2000	10/13	Fresno State	58	Nevada	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	16	5	5 Overs
Nevada	9	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	2 - 10	2 - 7	0 - 3
Road Teams	12 - 13	10 - 2	3 - 0	7 - 2

(#133) NEV at (#101) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	FRES
Net PPPPPP	#119	#39
Power RatePwr	#133	#101
SP+SP+	#118	#67
Perf GradeGrade	#90	#61
OffenseOff	#111	#64
DefenseDef	#34	#68
Spec TeamsST	#118	#26
TalentTal	#119	#80
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#88

Nevada Notes(12/1) OC David Gilbertson fired after only one season
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/12) Team does nothing well and likely worst in MWC
(10/9) QB Purdy (1 TD/8 INT) benched for Fr Carter Jones
(10/9) Def is fighting but the Off is one of CFBs worst
(10/9) Run heavy 60% but #112 in Rush Success. Little hope
(10/9) 1-10 in last 11 games, 4-14 under HC Choate
(8/1) Def ugly LY, return 1 starter. 14 portals. Yikes
(8/1) 0-6 finish, Def abysmal esp vs run. Bad vibes
(8/1) One of most penalized teams LY, 950+ yds
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
Nevada Injury Report

Fresno State Notes(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report

Nevada on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	#114	#75
Perf GradePerf	#111	#68
SuccessSuc	#124	#32
ExplosiveExp	#102	#25
PPAPPA	#129	#41
PowerPwr	#134	#83
SP+SP+	#133	#43
Pts POPPO	#133	#33
HavocHav	#107	#30

Nevada Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#118	#99
Run SuccessRSuc	#123	#78
Run ExplRExp	#36	#8
PPAExp	#92	#61
Run BlockR Blk	#29	-
OL YdsOLY	#86	#92
Stuff RateStuff	#79	#50
TackleTak	-	#76

Nevada Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	#118	#13
Pass ExplPExl	#124	#94
PPAExp	#135	#25
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#86	#78
F7 HavocF7	#114	#70
DB HavocDB	#86	#13

Fresno State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	#114	#11
Perf GradePerf	#64	#34
SuccessSuc	#111	#93
ExplosiveExp	#54	#39
PPAPPA	#106	#94
PowerPwr	#116	#130
SP+SP+	#96	#78
Pts POPPO	#111	#112
HavocHav	#64	#100

Fresno State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#44	#44
Run SuccessRSuc	#120	#85
Run ExplRExp	#50	#109
PPAExp	#114	#126
Run BlockR Blk	#45	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#90	#110
TackleTak	-	#66

Fresno State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#85	#49
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#77	#2
PPAExp	#64	#38
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#22	#22
F7 HavocF7	#87	#93
DB HavocDB	#45	#86

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 72°

Rematch from Week 6
Fresno State -12.5 (45.5)
Fresno State won vs Nevada this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Nevada last year (24-21)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2023 (27-9)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2022 (41-14)

NEV's OC David Gilbertson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carter Jones	111	173	64%	1001	6	8	5.8
Chubba Purdy	44	86	51%	577	3	8	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Ramseur	139	683	5	4.9	32
Chubba Purdy	100	530	3	5.3	58
Herschel Turner (Tr)	69	353	0	5.1	64
Ky Woods	19	103	0	5.4	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jett Carpenter	35	374	2	10.7	44
Dakota Thomas (Tr)	26	268	1	10.3	25
Marcus Bellon	25	242	1	9.7	43
Caleb Ramseur	18	191	3	10.6	41

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Labarbera	88	17	7	3	0
Stone Combs	72	5	1	1	1
Murvin Kenion III (Tr)	59	5	1	0	2
Nakian Jackson (Tr)	51	0	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Labarbera	88	17	7	3	0
Jonathan Maldonado	38	9	5	1	4
Nelson Ropati	22	4	2	0	0
Myles Williams (Tr)	3	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
A.J. Odums	49	1	7
Edward Rhambo (Tr)	34	1	6
Bryson Snelling	14	0	4

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)	192	277	69%	2030	13	11	7.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)	47	96	49%	354	1	2	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	110	699	6	6.4	69
Bryson Donelson	142	583	5	4.1	57
Brandon Ramirez	60	271	3	4.5	19
Johnathan Arceneaux	40	267	2	6.7	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josiah Freeman	52	642	6	12.3	51
Richie Anderson	31	300	3	9.7	25
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)	28	255	0	9.1	41
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	36	228	2	6.3	23

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)	96	6	0	1	3
Simeon Harris (Tr)	53	7	1	0	5
Camryn Bracha	52	3	0	0	4
Finn Claypool (Tr)	41	11	7	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Finn Claypool (Tr)	41	11	7	4	1
Korey Foreman	19	6	4	2	2
Jahzon Jacks	32	7	4	3	0
Deijon Laffitte	27	5	3	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jakari Embry	26	0	0	7
Simeon Harris (Tr)	53	7	1	5
Ryan Wilson	25	2	1	4