Nevada at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo Nevada Wolf Pack at Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Bulldog Stadium - Fresno, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Wolf Pack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (18 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#120)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
NEV coming off BYE
FRES coming off BYE
Our Line: Fresno State -13   (SP+ FRES -10)
Projected Score: NEV: 19 - FRES: 32 (52)
FRES Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
NEV Travel: 189 miles
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#65)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Nevada's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Nevada at Penn State+45.560.5
Sat 9/6 Nevada vs Sacramento State-6
Sat 9/13 Nevada vs Middle Tennessee-2.5
Sat 9/20 Nevada at Western Kentucky+8
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Nevada at Fresno State+13
Sat 10/11 Nevada vs San Diego State+2.5
Sat 10/18 Nevada at New Mexico+3
Sat 10/25 Nevada vs Boise State+24.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Nevada at Utah State+4
Sat 11/15 Nevada vs San José State+10
Sat 11/22 Nevada at Wyoming+6.5
Sat 11/29 Nevada vs UNLV+9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.055.5
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+6
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-16.5
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-13
Sat 10/11 Fresno State at Colorado State-0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State-8
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-9
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-11.5
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State+4.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#55 (.21)45% (46)23.147% (33)3.06 (59)16442% (65)2133.88 (73)#110 (.24)46% (117)28.849% (121)43% (92)4.33 (114)73.11.21
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)26.138% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)24.843% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense1323.117.844.5%3.881.2193771642134.653%47%47%42%16%.21
FRES Defense1324.81840.3%3.631.5 - - - - - 49%51%43%38%14%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense1328.831.346.4%4.331 - - - - - 56%44%49%43%14%.24
FRES Offense1326.13239.2%3.681.3193431012423.442%57%38%41%14%.11

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada1331:0219.545%52%7.673.11.214.21.1126.4
Fresno State1327:2918.939%42%6.2551.31.54.41.5230.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense1353% (47)47% (33)35.4164.24.621 (59).16 (51)3.06 (59)69% (93)10% (81)0.97 (64)
FRES Defense1349% (49)43% (74) - - - - .08 (48)2.94 (56)71% (56)8% (121)0.81 (7)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense1356% (126)49% (121) - - - - .27 (130)3.17 (91)80% (109)8% (119)1.08 (107)
FRES Offense1342% (115)38% (121)29.2100.73.421 (59).04 (111)2.73 (115)69% (96)8% (34)0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense1347% (87)42% (65)1928.2212.67.611.219 (65)8 (40).27 (57)1.6 (71)32% (69)32% (60).42 (29)6% (74)2.1 (59)
FRES Defense1351% (86)38% (33) - - - - - - 15 (18).09 (14)1.5 (34)30% (94)29% (37).2 (28)6% (65)2 (52)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense1344% (11)43% (92) - - - - - - 11 (52).2 (50)1.5 (49)30% (103)39% (130).46 (119)7% (47)1.9 (42)
FRES Offense1357% (21)41% (76)2333.1242.17.310.520 (58)14 (115).21 (89)1.6 (65)33% (95)28% (103).24 (100)6% (64)2.1 (63)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -18.39 #116
Nevada's Offense Rating: 7.33 #109
Nevada's Defense Rating: 25.72 #123
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Nevada's 2025 Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1
Nevada's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3 #124
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #119

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 858.21
Average FBS Talent: 681.87

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -18.39   Fresno State: -4.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -16.3   Fresno State: -6.2




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -4.39 #86
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 7.58 #106
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 15.16 #70
2025 Talent Rating: 678.00 #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #80
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.2 #88
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 858.21
Average FBS Talent: 681.87


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.3

Nevada's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 32
Nevada 19

Projected Total Points: 52
Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/18Nevada21Fresno State24Fresno StateFresno State -3NA50.0Under
202309/30Fresno State27Nevada9Fresno StateFresno State -25.5Nevada50.5Under
202211/19Nevada14Fresno State41Fresno StateFresno State -22.5Fresno State54.0Over
202110/23Fresno State34Nevada32Fresno StateFresno State -3.5Nevada64.5Over
202012/05Nevada37Fresno State26NevadaNevada -6.5Nevada59.0Over
201911/23Fresno State28Nevada35NevadaFresno State -13.5Nevada51.5Over
201810/06Nevada3Fresno State21Fresno StateFresno State -15Fresno State59.0Under
201709/30Fresno State41Nevada21Fresno StateFresno State -7.5Fresno State59.5Over
201610/08Nevada27Fresno State22NevadaNevada -11.5Fresno State54.0Under
201511/05Fresno State16Nevada30NevadaNevada -3.5Nevada54.0Under
201411/22Nevada20Fresno State40Fresno StateNevada -6.5Fresno State0
201311/02Fresno State41Nevada23Fresno StateFresno State -23Nevada0
201211/10Nevada36Fresno State52Fresno State
201110/22Nevada45Fresno State38Nevada
201011/13Fresno State34Nevada35Nevada
200911/14Nevada52Fresno State14Nevada
200811/07Fresno State28Nevada41Nevada
200710/06Nevada41Fresno State49Fresno State
200609/01Fresno State28Nevada19Fresno State
200511/26Nevada38Fresno State35Nevada
200411/20Fresno State54Nevada17Fresno State
200311/08Nevada10Fresno State27Fresno State
200111/17Nevada14Fresno State61Fresno State
200010/13Fresno State58Nevada21Fresno State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State1555 Overs
Nevada965 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 122 - 92 - 60 - 3
Road Teams12 - 129 - 23 - 06 - 2

(#116) Nevada Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -18.39 #116
Offense Rating: 7.33 #109
Defense Rating: 25.72 #123
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3 #124
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #119
Talent Rating: 476.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Avg Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.33 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position


Nevada Notes
(4/9) RBs meh. Some options, Turner (USU) added
(4/9) WR Smith/Bellon good. 3 portal adds. Impressive
(4/9) OL 3/5 back, avg LY. Only 1 portal (FCS)
(4/9) Def ugly LY, return nothing. 10 portals. Yikes
(4/9) Choate got year 0. New OC, pass game better TY
(3/29) QB Purdy vs Blanco, not much playing exp
Nevada     Ratings Matchup     Fresno State
Power #116
#86
Off #109
#106
Def #123
#70
Talent #112
#74
SP+ #124
#88
SP+ Off #114
#98
SP+ Def #119
#77

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Nevada last year (24-21)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2023 (27-9)
Fresno State beat Nevada in 2022 (41-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NEV | FRES
Depth Chart: NEV | FRES
Rosters: NEV | FRES
(#86) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.39 #86
Offense Rating: 7.58 #106
Defense Rating: 15.16 #70
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.2 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #77
Talent Rating: 678.00 #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #80
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Fresno State Notes
(6/3) DE Foreman good, CB Hamilton is a great one
(5/23) DC Benedetto was great at NIU past 3 years
(5/12) Fresno will be physical, biggest spring takeaway
(5/11) HC Entz was great at N Dak St (60-11)
(5/11) OC Davis runs combo spread & RPO, QB run
(5/11) Pass D good LY & DBs return some good parts
(5/11) QB1 Warner out of spring, Conklin signed after
(5/11) Final MWC season, join new Pac 12 in '26
(4/30) Portal QB Conklin (Sac St) big portal add
(4/30) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 9 portals, 4 DL help


  
Nevada's OC David Gilbertson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chubba Purdy182572%239119.6
AJ Bianco162467%173107.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Herschel Turner (Tr)7940545.143
Caleb Ramseur3211003.433
Chubba Purdy136004.619
Marcus Bellon93704.19
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marcus Bellon39522413.463
Jordan Brown (Tr)11140012.742
Nick Rempert (Tr)11127111.540
Caleb Ramseur8106113.344

View Nevada's Full Roster
Nevada's DC Kane Ioane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stone Combs583100
Austin Harnetiaux442010
Thomas Witte342010
Dylan Labarbera312000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonathan Maldonado173201
Stone Combs583100
Jason Douglas Jr.11100
DJ Warnell41101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edward Rhambo (Tr)221002
Charles Brown20001
Kaden Johnson171011

Fresno State's OC Josh Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)27143862%271017136.2
Carson Conklin (Tr)25540663%27592786.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson7847236.143
Elijah Gilliam12146683.924
Johnathan Arceneaux2210404.720
Rayshon Luke (Tr)41303.312
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Gilliam3220406.471
Richie Anderson1714708.618
Josiah Freeman895211.934
Bryson Donelson219414.514

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Nick Benedetto
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jayden Davis461002
Jadon Pearson (Tr)423012
Kosi Agina382001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Foreman235241
Sione Noa153230
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jairus Satele51100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jadon Pearson (Tr)423012
Jayden Davis461002