Fresno State at Kansas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at Kansas JayhawksKansas logo
Saturday, August 23rd 2025 (6:30 PM EDT)
Kansas -14 (51.5) (-550)  Open: -14.0 | 51.5
Kansas 31 - Fresno State: 7

 
Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: Kansas -11.5  (SP+ KU -2)
Projected Score: FRES: 18 - KU: 30 (48)
KU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
FRES Travel: 1341 miles, 2 hrs behind
Jayhawks (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Lance Leipold (22 - 28)
Avg Score : 28 - 27 (33 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 0)
 
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.547.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 20 - 17UN
Fri 10/10 Fresno State at Colorado State-5.547.5L 21 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.046.5L 0 - 23UN
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+17.547.5W 30 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-3.040.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-1.550.5L 17 - 28UN
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-3.546.0W 41 - 14OY
Sat 12/27 Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-5.041.0W 18 - 3UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Kansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Kansas vs Fresno State-14.051.5W 31 - 7UY
Fri 8/29 Kansas vs Wagner-45.557.5W 46 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Kansas at Missouri+5.551.0L 31 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Kansas vs West Virginia-12.554.5W 41 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Kansas vs Cincinnati-5.555.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 10/4 Kansas at UCF-4.053.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 10/11 Kansas at Texas Tech+13.558.5L 17 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Kansas vs Kansas State-3.555.5L 17 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 Kansas vs Oklahoma State-24.554.5W 38 - 21ON
Sat 11/8 Kansas at Arizona+5.556.5L 20 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Kansas at Iowa State+3.055.5L 14 - 38UN
Fri 11/28 Kansas vs Utah+10.559.5L 21 - 31UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#105 (.11)39% (110)25.838% (120)2.79 (101)15741% (78)1673.29 (111)#40 (.1)39% (32)18.843% (77)35% (14)3.26 (34)55.21.51.8
KU#27 (.25)48% (15)28.151% (6)3.53 (4)17046% (31)2203.94 (47)#121 (.25)42% (68)26.841% (62)42% (71)4.24 (120)39.81.10.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
KU#9 (.32)48% (16)49% (15)3.6 (3)21348% (11)2094.68 (11)#108 (.23)45% (99)46% (104)43% (95)3.83 (73)38.41.41.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1325.826.338.6%3.291.5183241571674.753%45%38%41%15%.11
KU Defense1226.822.141.7%4.240.8 - - - - - 51%48%41%42%18%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1318.824.838.8%3.261.8 - - - - - 50%49%43%35%18%.1
KU Offense1228.132.648.4%3.941.1213901702204.851%47%51%46%14%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1329:2017.536%40%655.21.51.84.91.6333.6
Kansas1230:4020.639%57%539.81.10.86.32129.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1353% (41)38% (120)33.3157.14.722 (49).02 (114)2.79 (101)73% (59)10% (86)1.01 (51)
KU Defense1251% (79)41% (62) - - - - .13 (88)2.84 (59)77% (109)11% (26)1.1 (124)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1350% (62)43% (77) - - - - .09 (62)3 (93)74% (92)10% (66)0.82 (8)
KU Offense1251% (54)51% (6)35.5169.84.817 (99).22 (19)3.53 (4)84% (4)9% (46)0.87 (109)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1345% (99)41% (78)17.227166.56.29.713 (75)13 (127).25 (64)1.5 (78)33% (97)30% (73).31 (70)5% (48)2 (86)
KU Defense1248% (65)42% (71) - - - - - - 4 (75).39 (121)1.7 (126)34% (34)33% (105).43 (125)7% (41)2.2 (125)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1349% (75)35% (14) - - - - - - 19 (12).14 (24)1.6 (91)33% (43)27% (30).17 (24)8% (12)1.8 (14)
KU Offense1247% (87)46% (31)17.628.82207.712.523 (8)8 (7).32 (45)1.5 (76)28% (19)32% (42).27 (81)6% (59)1.8 (117)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -8.69  #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 0.27  #127
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 8.96  #73
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #67
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #96
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.5  #43

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -8.69   Kansas: 7.48

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 1.1   Kansas: 3.2




Kansas's Power Ratings
Kansas's Power Rating: 7.48  #52
Kansas's Offense Rating: 17.92  #23
Kansas's Defense Rating: 11.16  #86
2025 Talent Rating: 770.00  #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Kansas's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.2  #59
Kansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5  #46
Kansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9  #78

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Kansas 30
Fresno State 18


Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Kansas 20
Fresno State 18

Total Points: 38

Based on Entire Season
Kansas 26
Fresno State 25

Total Points: 51
Kansas Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Kansas's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/23Kansas31Fresno State7Kansas -14Kansas51.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas110 Overs
Fresno State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#102) FRES at (#52) KU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFRESKU
Power RatePwr #102 #52
SP+SP+ #67 #59
Perf GradeGrade #65 #42
OffenseOff #72 #38
DefenseDef #66 #66
Spec TeamsST #31 #26
TalentTal #80 #62
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #79
Fresno State Notes
(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report
Kansas Notes
(9/24) RB Hinshaw doubtful for Cincy game
(9/24) Off good success not expl, Daniels a weapon
(9/24) Def Success #'s really good early, but bad Expl
(9/20) Run Off mauled WVU, Daniels efficient, Def decent
(7/30) RB Williams was Iowa leader (800+) in '23
(7/19) Replacing career 4.5k RB yds, 7k WR yds
(5/23) KU was 1-5 in 1 score games LY (of 7 L's)
(4/4) QB Daniels back, electric when healthy
(4/4) RB rebuild. Hishaw exp'd, added Williams (Iowa)
(4/4) OL 2/5 back, good LY. 3 portal adds
(4/4) Def bad LY, replaces a lot. 11 portal adds
(3/21) WR total rebuild. 3 portals. Pickett (BG) #1?
Kansas Injury Report
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffKU Def
Perf GradePerf #72 #66
SuccessSuc #110 #68
ExplosiveExp #55 #131
PPAPPA #105 #121
PowerPwr #127 #86
SP+SP+ #96 #78
Pts POPPO #111 #120
HavocHav #65 #28
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffKU Def
Run GameRun #34 #95
Run SuccessRSuc #120 #62
Run ExplRExp #51 #124
PPAExp #114 #88
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #101 #59
Stuff RateStuff #91 #33
TackleTak -  #99
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffKU Def
Pass GamePass #91 #55
Pass SuccessPSuc #78 #71
Pass ExplPExl #78 #126
PPAExp #64 #121
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #21 #41
F7 HavocF7 #86 #26
DB HavocDB #48 #41
Kansas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatKU OffFRES Def
Perf GradePerf #38 #66
SuccessSuc #15 #32
ExplosiveExp #112 #20
PPAPPA #27 #40
PowerPwr #23 #73
SP+SP+ #46 #43
Pts POPPO #47 #34
HavocHav #53 #32
Kansas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
KU OffFRES Def
Run GameRun #37 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #6 #77
Run ExplRExp #109 #8
PPAExp #19 #62
Run BlockR Blk #7 -
OL YdsOLY #4 #93
Stuff RateStuff #10 #50
TackleTak -  #98
Kansas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatKU OffFRES Def
Pass GamePass #67 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #31 #14
Pass ExplPExl #76 #91
PPAExp #45 #24
Pass Block/RushP Blk #96 #62
F7 HavocF7 #46 #66
DB HavocDB #59 #12
Program Comparison
KU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 81° - Wind: 10 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Kansas -14.0 (51.5)
Kansas won vs Fresno State this year (31-7)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)19327869%202513117.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)479649%354123.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)11069966.469
Bryson Donelson14258354.157
Brandon Ramirez6027134.519
Johnathan Arceneaux4026726.758
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman52642612.351
Richie Anderson32321310.025
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)2825509.141
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622826.323

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)966013
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Camryn Bracha523004
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
Korey Foreman196422
Jahzon Jacks327430
Deijon Laffitte275303
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry260007
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Alzillion Hamilton342015

KU's OC Jim Zebrowski (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalon Daniels19831962%25042277.8
Cole Ballard102246%108114.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Hishaw Jr.12458754.722
Leshon Williams (Tr)9756575.862
Jalon Daniels11742343.638
Isaiah Marshall15160010.743
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Emmanuel Henderson Jr. (Tr)45766517.093
Boden Groen (Tr)36450512.546
Cam Pickett (Tr)45449310.038
Levi Wentz16258216.150

View Kansas's Full Roster

KU's DC D.K. McDonald (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Lathan (Tr)867265
Lyrik Rawls (Tr)721037
Bangally Kamara (Tr)549114
Austin Alexander464002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leroy Harris III (Tr)317518
Tommy Dunn264321
D.J. Withers165310
Jalen Todd442214
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leroy Harris III (Tr)317518
Lyrik Rawls (Tr)721037
Trey Lathan (Tr)867265