Fresno State at Kansas - 2025 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Kansas Jayhawks

Saturday, August 23rd 2025 (6:30 PM EDT)
Kansas -14 (51.5) (-550) Open: -14.0 | 51.5
Kansas 31 - Fresno State: 7

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Kansas -11 (SP+ KU -2)
Projected Score: FRES: 20 - KU: 31 (51)
KU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
FRES Travel: 1341 miles, 2 hrs behind

Jayhawks (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Lance Leipold (22 - 28)
Avg Score : 28 - 27 (33 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
KU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Fresno State at Kansas	+14.0	51.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 8/30	Fresno State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	54.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Fresno State at Oregon State	+1.0	45.5	W 36 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Fresno State vs Southern	-37.5	51.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Fresno State vs Nevada	-12.5	45.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Fri 10/10	Fresno State at Colorado State	-5.5	47.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Fresno State vs San Diego State	+3.0	46.5	L 0 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/1	Fresno State at Boise State	+17.5	47.5	W 30 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-3.0	40.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Fresno State vs Utah State	-1.5	50.5	L 17 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/29	Fresno State at San José State	-3.5	46.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/27	Fresno State vs Miami (OH)	-5.0	41.0	W 18 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Kansas's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Kansas vs Fresno State	-14.0	51.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Fri 8/29	Kansas vs Wagner	-45.5	57.5	W 46 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Kansas at Missouri	+5.5	51.0	L 31 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Kansas vs West Virginia	-12.5	54.5	W 41 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Kansas vs Cincinnati	-5.5	55.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/4	Kansas at UCF	-4.0	53.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Kansas at Texas Tech	+13.5	58.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Kansas vs Kansas State	-3.5	55.5	L 17 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/1	Kansas vs Oklahoma State	-24.5	54.5	W 38 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/8	Kansas at Arizona	+5.5	56.5	L 20 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Kansas at Iowa State	+3.0	55.5	L 14 - 38	U	N
Fri 11/28	Kansas vs Utah	+10.5	59.5	L 21 - 31	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)	25.8	38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)	18.8	43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5
KU	#9 (.32)	48% (16)	28.1	49% (15)	3.6 (3)	213	48% (11)	209	4.68 (11)	#108 (.23)	45% (99)	26.8	46% (104)	43% (95)	3.83 (73)	38.4	1.4	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
KU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.3	39.2%	3.68	1.3	19	343	101	242	3.4	42%	57%	38%	41%	14%	.11
KU Defense	12	26.8	22.1	44.5%	3.83	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	46%	43%	17%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	18.8	24.8	40.3%	3.63	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	43%	38%	14%	.08
KU Offense	12	28.1	32.6	48.1%	4.68	1.4	22	421	213	209	5.6	58%	41%	49%	48%	12%	.32

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	27:29	18.9	39%	42%	6.2	55	1.3	1.5	4.4	1.5	2	30.7
Kansas	12	30:54	21.5	51%	67%	4.5	38.4	1.4	1.4	5.8	2.3	2	25.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	42% (115)	38% (121)	29.2	100.7	3.4	21 (59)	.04 (111)	2.73 (115)	69% (96)	8% (34)	0.95 (76)
KU Defense	12	50% (58)	46% (104)	-	-	-	-	.22 (117)	3.4 (124)	82% (117)	10% (62)	1 (78)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	49% (49)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.08 (48)	2.94 (56)	71% (56)	8% (121)	0.81 (7)
KU Offense	12	58% (19)	49% (15)	37.8	212.7	5.6	29 (18)	.33 (4)	3.6 (3)	83% (8)	7% (20)	1.08 (29)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	57% (21)	41% (76)	23	33.1	242.1	7.3	10.5	20 (58)	14 (115)	.21 (89)	1.6 (65)	33% (95)	28% (103)	.24 (100)	6% (64)	2.1 (63)
KU Defense	12	50% (72)	43% (95)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.3 (101)	1.7 (110)	32% (60)	33% (104)	.29 (61)	7% (31)	2.1 (80)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	51% (86)	38% (33)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.09 (14)	1.5 (34)	30% (94)	29% (37)	.2 (28)	6% (65)	2 (52)
KU Offense	12	41% (122)	48% (11)	14.7	25.5	208.8	8.2	14.2	15 (98)	12 (85)	.38 (17)	1.6 (62)	30% (38)	36% (26)	.38 (51)	5% (31)	1.9 (117)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -9.85 #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 5.63 #117
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 15.48 #84
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #66
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -9.85 Kansas: 7.025

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 1.8 Kansas: 4.1

Kansas's Power Ratings
Kansas's Power Rating: 7.025 #51
Kansas's Offense Rating: 19.97 #27
Kansas's Defense Rating: 15.02 #79
2025 Talent Rating: 770.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Kansas's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #58
Kansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #48
Kansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Kansas 31
Fresno State 20

Projected Total Points: 51

Kansas Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Kansas's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/23	Kansas	31	Fresno State	7	Kansas -14	Kansas	51.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kansas	1	1	0 Overs
Fresno State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#102) FRES at (#51) KU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	KU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#102	#51
SP+SP+	#66	#58
Perf GradeGrade	#61	#38
OffenseOff	#64	#38
DefenseDef	#68	#64
Spec TeamsST	#26	#30
TalentTal	#80	#62
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#79

Fresno State Notes(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report

Kansas Notes(9/24) RB Hinshaw doubtful for Cincy game
(9/24) Off good success not expl, Daniels a weapon
(9/24) Def Success #'s really good early, but bad Expl
(9/20) Run Off mauled WVU, Daniels efficient, Def decent
(7/30) RB Williams was Iowa leader (800+) in '23
(7/19) Replacing career 4.5k RB yds, 7k WR yds
(5/23) KU was 1-5 in 1 score games LY (of 7 L's)
(4/4) QB Daniels back, electric when healthy
(4/4) RB rebuild. Hishaw exp'd, added Williams (Iowa)
(4/4) OL 2/5 back, good LY. 3 portal adds
(4/4) Def bad LY, replaces a lot. 11 portal adds
(3/21) WR total rebuild. 3 portals. Pickett (BG) #1?
Kansas Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	KU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#64	#64
SuccessSuc	#110	#99
ExplosiveExp	#38	#101
PPAPPA	#110	#108
PowerPwr	#117	#79
SP+SP+	#100	#76
Pts POPPO	#91	#73
HavocHav	#34	#54

Fresno State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	KU Def
Run GameRun	#44	#89
Run SuccessRSuc	#121	#104
Run ExplRExp	#76	#78
PPAExp	#111	#117
Run BlockR Blk	#45	-
OL YdsOLY	#115	#124
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#118
TackleTak	-	#88

Fresno State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	KU Def
Pass GamePass	#85	#54
Pass SuccessPSuc	#76	#95
Pass ExplPExl	#65	#110
PPAExp	#89	#101
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#22	#53
F7 HavocF7	#34	#62
DB HavocDB	#64	#31

Kansas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	KU Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#38	#68
SuccessSuc	#16	#51
ExplosiveExp	#63	#13
PPAPPA	#9	#17
PowerPwr	#27	#84
SP+SP+	#48	#37
Pts POPPO	#11	#47
HavocHav	#19	#113

Kansas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	KU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#39	#99
Run SuccessRSuc	#15	#74
Run ExplRExp	#29	#7
PPAExp	#4	#48
Run BlockR Blk	#16	-
OL YdsOLY	#3	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#5	#65
TackleTak	-	#76

Kansas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	KU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#53	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	#11	#33
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#34
PPAExp	#17	#14
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#88	#78
F7 HavocF7	#20	#121
DB HavocDB	#31	#65

Program Comparison
KU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Kansas -14.0 (51.5)
Kansas won vs Fresno State this year (31-7)

Previous Matchups
Kansas beat Fresno State last year (31-7)

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)	192	277	69%	2030	13	11	7.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)	47	96	49%	354	1	2	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	110	699	6	6.4	69
Bryson Donelson	142	583	5	4.1	57
Brandon Ramirez	60	271	3	4.5	19
Johnathan Arceneaux	40	267	2	6.7	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josiah Freeman	52	642	6	12.3	51
Richie Anderson	31	300	3	9.7	25
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)	28	255	0	9.1	41
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	36	228	2	6.3	23

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)	96	6	0	1	3
Simeon Harris (Tr)	53	7	1	0	5
Camryn Bracha	52	3	0	0	4
Finn Claypool (Tr)	41	11	7	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Finn Claypool (Tr)	41	11	7	4	1
Korey Foreman	19	6	4	2	2
Jahzon Jacks	32	7	4	3	0
Deijon Laffitte	27	5	3	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jakari Embry	26	0	0	7
Simeon Harris (Tr)	53	7	1	5
Ryan Wilson	25	2	1	4

KU's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalon Daniels	198	319	62%	2504	22	7	7.8
Cole Ballard	10	22	46%	108	1	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Hishaw Jr.	124	587	5	4.7	22
Leshon Williams (Tr)	97	565	7	5.8	62
Jalon Daniels	117	423	4	3.6	38
Isaiah Marshall	15	160	0	10.7	43

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emmanuel Henderson Jr. (Tr)	45	766	5	17.0	93
Boden Groen (Tr)	36	450	5	12.5	46
Cam Pickett (Tr)	45	449	3	10.0	38
Levi Wentz	16	258	2	16.1	50

View Kansas's Full Roster

KU's DC D.K. McDonald (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Lathan (Tr)	86	7	2	6	5
Lyrik Rawls (Tr)	72	1	0	3	7
Bangally Kamara (Tr)	54	9	1	1	4
Austin Alexander	46	4	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Leroy Harris III (Tr)	31	7	5	1	8
D.J. Withers	16	5	3	1	0
Tommy Dunn	26	4	3	2	1
Jalen Todd	44	2	2	1	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Leroy Harris III (Tr)	31	7	5	1	8
Lyrik Rawls (Tr)	72	1	0	3	7
Trey Lathan (Tr)	86	7	2	6	5