Fresno State at Kansas - 2025 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at Kansas JayhawksKansas logo
Saturday, August 23rd 2025 (6:30 PM EDT)
Kansas -14 (51.5) (-550)  Open: -14.0 | 51.5
Kansas 31 - Fresno State: 7

 
Bulldogs (3 - 1) (3 - 1 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 20 (22 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#52)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: Kansas -19.5   (SP+ KU -11)
Projected Score: FRES: 16 - KU: 36 (52)
KU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
FRES Travel: 1341 miles, 2 hrs behind
Jayhawks (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Lance Leipold (22 - 28)
Avg Score : 36 - 19 (39 - 7 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#67)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 0)
 
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-3.047.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-13.5
Sat 10/11 Fresno State at Colorado State+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State-2
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-2
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-9
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Kansas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Kansas vs Fresno State-14.051.5W 31 - 7UY
Fri 8/29 Kansas vs Wagner-45.557.5W 46 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Kansas at Missouri+5.551.0L 31 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Kansas vs West Virginia-13.554.5
Sat 9/27 Kansas vs Cincinnati+0.5
Sat 10/4 Kansas at UCF-1
Sat 10/11 Kansas at Texas Tech+16
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Kansas vs Kansas State-6
Sat 11/1 Kansas vs Oklahoma State-18
Sat 11/8 Kansas at Arizona+1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Kansas at Iowa State+6.5
Sat 11/29 Kansas vs Utah+8

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#51 (.25)44% (64)35.344% (70)2.7 (97)20347% (47)1903.58 (90)#126 (.36)50% (125)19.846% (100)53% (129)4.75 (115)4520.8
KU#19 (.4)54% (18)3651% (36)3.93 (4)16558% (9)2484.89 (34)#100 (.2)38% (62)18.735% (36)42% (82)4.1 (93)45.711.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
KU#9 (.32)48% (16)49% (15)3.6 (3)21348% (11)2094.68 (11)#108 (.23)45% (99)46% (104)43% (95)3.83 (73)38.41.41.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense435.321.543.9%3.582223932031905.855%42%44%47%17%.25
KU Defense318.7738.1%4.11.3 - - - - - 48%51%35%42%22%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense419.82949.7%4.750.8 - - - - - 46%53%46%53%13%.36
KU Offense33638.554.2%4.891224131652484.944%54%51%58%12%.4

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State430:332251%67%4.54520.84.81.5229.8
Kansas328:3822.329%71%5.745.711.38.73.3032.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense455% (45)44% (70)35.32035.812 (3).13 (70)2.7 (97)75% (52)11% (107)1.25 (22)
KU Defense348% (56)35% (36) - - - - -.1 (21)2.35 (33)86% (112)16% (12)1.02 (85)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense446% (43)46% (100) - - - - .13 (95)3.28 (120)100% (127)7% (118)0.74 (22)
KU Offense344% (102)51% (36)33.71654.94 (79).23 (43)3.93 (4)75% (52)8% (66)0.83 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense442% (109)47% (47)1926189.57.3104 (72)5 (129).55 (19)1.7 (27)30% (63)45% (15).77 (12)6% (92)2.3 (22)
KU Defense351% (75)42% (82) - - - - - - 2 (56).52 (123)2 (130)37% (32)34% (101).55 (118)6% (56)2.4 (125)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense453% (89)53% (129) - - - - - - 3 (28).55 (126)1.5 (71)32% (78)38% (120).45 (108)7% (45)1.8 (50)
KU Offense354% (40)58% (9)19.728248.38.912.69 (13)2 (60).64 (12)1.5 (82)26% (31)35% (45).62 (27)3% (31)2.1 (52)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -11.82 #109
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 7.37 #92
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 19.19 #115
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -11.82   Kansas: 13.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -0.3   Kansas: 10.2




Kansas's Power Ratings
Kansas's Power Rating: 13.22 #50
Kansas's Offense Rating: 23.42 #24
Kansas's Defense Rating: 12.17 #92
2025 Talent Rating: 770.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Kansas's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3
Kansas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #36
Kansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #19
Kansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #58

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.5
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Kansas 36
Fresno State 16


Total Points: 52

Kansas Scoring
Offense: 36 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.5
Defense: 18.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 7

Kansas's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/23Kansas31Fresno State7KansasKansas -14Kansas51.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas110 Overs
Fresno State001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#109) Fresno State Info
Power Rating: -11.82 #109
Offense Rating: 7.37 #92
Defense Rating: 19.19 #115
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.75 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 53%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record on Road: 1 - 1 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Fresno State Notes
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
(8/1) QB1 Warner out spring, Conklin (Sac St) added
(6/8) RB Donelson 33/263/8ypc last 3, came on late
(6/3) DE Foreman good, CB Hamilton is a great one
(5/23) DC Benedetto was great at NIU past 3 years
(5/12) Fresno will be physical, biggest spring takeaway

Fresno State Highlights
Fresno State has Really Good Running Game (#5)
Fresno State offense is explosive (#18)
Fresno State offense is good on 3rd downs
Fresno State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Fresno State Deficiencies
Fresno State has a bad TO Margin (#131)
Fresno State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Fresno State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#129)
Fresno State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#100)
Fresno State has a bad defense (#125)
Fresno State has a bad defensive line (#120)
Fresno State has a bad red zone defense (#115)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatKUFRES
OverallOver#16#64
OffenseOff#14#30
DefenseDef#59#105
Special TeamsST#9#26
PassingPass#27#58
RushingRush#34#11
Run BlockRBLK#15#34
Pass BlockPBLK#69#24
Route RunningWR Rt#26#54
TacklingTkl#95#71
Run DefenseR Def#80#99
Pass Rush DefPRush#50#98
Coverage DefCov#33#109

Rematch from Week 1
Kansas -14.0 (51.5)
Kansas won vs Fresno State this year (31-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FRES | KU
Depth Chart: FRES | KU
Rosters: FRES | KU
(#50) Kansas Info
Power Rating: 13.22 #50
Offense Rating: 23.42 #24
Defense Rating: 12.17 #92
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #36
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.6 #19
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #58
Talent Rating: 770.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 44%
Great Offense Success Rate of 54%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.89 PPO
Good Run Success 51%
Great Pass Success 58%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.1 PPO
Good Run Def Success 35%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Kansas Notes
(7/19) Replacing career 4.5k RB yds, 7k WR yds
(5/23) KU was 1-5 in 1 score games LY (of 7 L's)
(4/4) QB Daniels back, electric when healthy
(4/4) RB rebuild. Hishaw exp'd, added Williams (Iowa)
(4/4) OL 2/5 back, good LY. 3 portal adds
(4/4) Def bad LY, replaces a lot. 11 portal adds
(3/21) WR total rebuild. 3 portals. Pickett (BG) #1?
(3/21) New OC Zebrowski was Co-OC/QB LY
(3/21) New DC McDonald promoted? Why?
(3/21) Strange '24, 1-5 to 5-7. Underachieved

Kansas Highlights
Kansas is Undefeated at Home

Kansas offense is efficent (#18)
Kansas has a top Offensive Line (#4)
Kansas does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#4)

Kansas Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Kansas Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#18)
Kansas Front 7 is disruptive (#12)

Kansas Deficiencies
Kansas offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Kansas gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#128)


  
Fresno State's OC Josh Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)719872%716457.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)5683%42007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson5032526.557
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622456.244
Elijah Gilliam1710125.925
Johnathan Arceneaux105415.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman11149013.530
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)1311008.517
Bryson Donelson887010.939
Rayshon Luke (Tr)128016.720

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Nick Benedetto
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)341001
Camryn Bracha182000
Finn Claypool (Tr)162211
Alzillion Hamilton150001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)162211
Korey Foreman93200
Jayden Davis152120
Jahzon Jacks52120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry60003
K'Vion Thunderbird (Tr)141013
Simeon Harris (Tr)122002

Kansas's OC Jim Zebrowski
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jalon Daniels547572%679929.1
Cole Ballard2633%38006.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Hishaw Jr.3316915.121
Jalon Daniels218213.923
Leshon Williams (Tr)95716.321
Cole Ballard75207.415
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Emmanuel Henderson Jr. (Tr)12183215.362
Cam Pickett (Tr)10124312.421
Levi Wentz7103014.750
DeShawn Hanika995310.624

View Kansas's Full Roster
Kansas's DC D.K. McDonald
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Lathan (Tr)254112
Lyrik Rawls (Tr)171001
Mason Ellis131000
Bangally Kamara (Tr)134101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leroy Harris III (Tr)84410
D.J. Withers43210
Bangally Kamara (Tr)134101
Kenean Caldwell62100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Lathan (Tr)254112
Devin Dye71102
Taylor Davis90001