Fresno State at San José State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo   Fresno State Bulldogs at San José State Spartans  San José State logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (10:30 PM EST)
Fresno State -3.5 (46.0) (-175)  Open: -2.5 | 47.5
Fresno State 41 - San José State: 14  (Mountain West)

 
Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
SJSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -5  (SP+ FRES -16)

Projected Score: FRES: 27 - SJSU: 22 (49)
FRES Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
FRES Travel: 121 miles
Spartans (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (7 - 5)
Avg Score : 21 - 33 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.547.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 20 - 17UN
Fri 10/10 Fresno State at Colorado State-5.547.5L 21 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.046.5L 0 - 23UN
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+17.547.5W 30 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-3.040.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-1.550.5L 17 - 28UN
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-3.546.0W 41 - 14OY
Sat 12/27 Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-5.041.0W 18 - 3UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
San José State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 San José State vs Central Michigan-11.550.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/6 San José State at Texas+37.052.5L 7 - 38UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 San José State vs Idaho-14.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/27 San José State at Stanford+3.049.5L 29 - 30OY
Fri 10/3 San José State vs New Mexico-1.558.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 10/11 San José State at Wyoming-1.550.5L 28 - 35ON
Fri 10/17 San José State at Utah State+3.063.5L 25 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 San José State vs Hawai'i-2.555.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 11/8 San José State vs Air Force-6.067.5L 16 - 26UN
Sat 11/15 San José State at Nevada-10.049.5L 10 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 San José State at San Diego State+10.050.5L 3 - 25UN
Sat 11/29 San José State vs Fresno State+3.546.0L 14 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 4

Predictions for San José State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)25.838% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)18.843% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
SJSU#71 (.18)44% (56)21.441% (98)2.27 (133)8846% (28)3223.6 (96)#27 (.1)41% (57)32.542% (66)39% (47)3.58 (44)61.52.22.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SJSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1325.826.339.2%3.681.3193431012423.442%57%38%41%14%.11
SJSU Defense1332.529.540.8%3.582.2 - - - - - 53%47%42%39%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1318.824.840.3%3.631.5 - - - - - 49%51%43%38%14%.08
SJSU Offense1321.425.843.9%3.62.222410883223.637%63%41%46%18%.18

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1327:2918.939%42%6.2551.31.54.41.5230.7
San José State1326:2321.740%53%761.52.22.27.21.9228.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1342% (115)38% (121)29.2100.73.421 (59).04 (111)2.73 (115)69% (96)8% (34)0.95 (76)
SJSU Defense1353% (94)42% (66) - - - - .03 (21)2.71 (23)77% (96)11% (41)0.86 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1349% (49)43% (74) - - - - .08 (48)2.94 (56)71% (56)8% (121)0.81 (7)
SJSU Offense1337% (131)41% (98)24.687.93.613 (105)-.06 (131)2.27 (133)70% (91)9% (57)0.81 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1357% (21)41% (76)2333.1242.17.310.520 (58)14 (115).21 (89)1.6 (65)33% (95)28% (103).24 (100)6% (64)2.1 (63)
SJSU Defense1347% (43)39% (47) - - - - - - 21 (1).19 (48)1.7 (105)34% (36)29% (45).24 (38)6% (56)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1351% (86)38% (33) - - - - - - 15 (18).09 (14)1.5 (34)30% (94)29% (37).2 (28)6% (65)2 (52)
SJSU Offense1363% (3)46% (28)24.342.3321.87.613.231 (6)16 (124).33 (39)1.6 (74)30% (53)34% (46).38 (49)9% (131)2.1 (65)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -9.85  #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 5.63  #117
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 15.48  #84
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #66
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1  #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -9.85   San José State: -9.035

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 1.8   San José State: -14.3




San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -9.035  #95
San José State's Offense Rating: 10.64  #84
San José State's Defense Rating: 19.41  #103
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
San José State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San José State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.3  #118
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #108
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 27
San José State 22


Projected Total Points: 49
San José State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.8
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.5

San José State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29San José State14Fresno State41Fresno State -3.5Fresno State46.0Over
202410/26Fresno State33San José State10Fresno State -6.5Fresno State55.0Under
202311/11San José State42Fresno State18San José State -2.5San José State51.5Over
202210/15Fresno State17San José State10San José State -7Fresno State47.0Under
202111/25San José State9Fresno State40Fresno State -7Fresno State52.5Under
201911/30San José State17Fresno State16Fresno State -1San José State60.5Under
201811/24Fresno State31San José State13Fresno State -31.5San José State51.0Under
201710/07San José State10Fresno State27Fresno State -17NA59.5Under
201611/26Fresno State14San José State16San José State -4Fresno State51.5Under
201509/26San José State49Fresno State23San José State -4San José State52.0Over
201411/08Fresno State38San José State24Fresno State -4Fresno State0
201311/29San José State62Fresno State52Fresno State -10San José State0
201111/26Fresno State24San José State27
201010/23San José State18Fresno State33
200910/17Fresno State41San José State21
200811/21San José State10Fresno State24
200710/20Fresno State30San José State0
200612/02San José State24Fresno State14
200511/05Fresno State45San José State7
200411/27San José State28Fresno State62
200311/15Fresno State41San José State7
200111/23Fresno State40San José State21
200011/24San José State6Fresno State37
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San José State753 Overs
Fresno State1667 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 98 - 34 - 14 - 2
Road Teams9 - 143 - 82 - 41 - 4

(#102) FRES at (#95) SJSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFRESSJSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #102 #95
SP+SP+ #66 #118
Perf GradeGrade #61 #116
OffenseOff #64 #114
DefenseDef #68 #91
Spec TeamsST #26 #44
TalentTal #80 #117
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
Fresno State Notes
(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report
San José State Notes
(11/21) DC Derrick Odum fired after Nevada blowout
(10/18) Box score W in L @ USU, 534 yds, 8 flags + 1 TO diff
(10/18) Pass Def awful, torched for 300+ in 5 of last 6 games
(10/12) Loss @ Wyoming may end goals. Regressing hard
(9/6) Cannot kick FG, cost them opener vs CMU
(8/30) Off & esp run game awful vs CMU, bad start
(8/1) Top 10 fastest offense to help OL struggles LY
(7/31) RB Chalk back, better depth. More run TY?
(6/6) Spread & Shred Off = most pass heavy @ 63%
(5/4) QB Eget back, gunslinger fun, depth?
(5/4) WR rebuild, Coleman good. 4 portals added
(5/4) TE Jackson Canaan undersized but productive
San José State Injury Report
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffSJSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #64 #91
SuccessSuc #110 #57
ExplosiveExp #38 #48
PPAPPA #110 #27
PowerPwr #117 #103
SP+SP+ #100 #115
Pts POPPO #91 #44
HavocHav #34 #47
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffSJSU Def
Run GameRun #44 #40
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #66
Run ExplRExp #76 #16
PPAExp #111 #21
Run BlockR Blk #45 -
OL YdsOLY #115 #23
Stuff RateStuff #85 #30
TackleTak -  #107
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffSJSU Def
Pass GamePass #85 #127
Pass SuccessPSuc #76 #47
Pass ExplPExl #65 #105
PPAExp #89 #48
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #22 #96
F7 HavocF7 #34 #41
DB HavocDB #64 #56
San José State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatSJSU OffFRES Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #114 #68
SuccessSuc #56 #51
ExplosiveExp #54 #13
PPAPPA #71 #17
PowerPwr #84 #84
SP+SP+ #108 #37
Pts POPPO #96 #47
HavocHav #110 #113
San José State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
SJSU OffFRES Def
Run GameRun #76 #99
Run SuccessRSuc #98 #74
Run ExplRExp #127 #7
PPAExp #131 #48
Run BlockR Blk #132 -
OL YdsOLY #133 #56
Stuff RateStuff #134 #65
TackleTak -  #76
San José State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatSJSU OffFRES Def
Pass GamePass #102 #27
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #33
Pass ExplPExl #74 #34
PPAExp #39 #14
Pass Block/RushP Blk #117 #78
F7 HavocF7 #57 #121
DB HavocDB #131 #65
Program Comparison
SJSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 14
Fresno State 3.5 (46.0)
Fresno State won at San José State this year (41-14)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat San José State last year (41-14)
Fresno State beat San José State in 2024 (33-10)
San José State beat Fresno State in 2023 (42-18)

  
FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)19227769%203013117.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)479649%354123.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)11069966.469
Bryson Donelson14258354.157
Brandon Ramirez6027134.519
Johnathan Arceneaux4026726.758
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman52642612.351
Richie Anderson3130039.725
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)2825509.141
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622826.323

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)966013
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Camryn Bracha523004
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
Korey Foreman196422
Jahzon Jacks327430
Deijon Laffitte275303
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry260007
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Ryan Wilson252104

SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget23239359%30581797.8
Tama Amisone265052%205034.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Steve Chavez-Soto8744875.166
Lamar Radcliffe6634015.230
Jabari Bates2719227.187
Tama Amisone3416014.723
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Danny Scudero (Tr)8812971014.772
Kyri Shoels59768213.043
Leland Smith (Tr)43695316.245
Jackson Canaan3331509.544

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Pollard1085344
Taniela Latu656113
Noah McNeal-Franklin636132
Jaylen Thomas591006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vili Taufatofua (Tr)347471
Jordan Pollard1085344
Gafa Faga476350
Quincy Likio415210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Thomas591006
Jalen Bainer441105
Jordan Pollard1085344