Utah State at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Utah State logo Utah State Aggies at Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Bulldog Stadium - Fresno, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Aggies (2 - 1) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 33 - 30 (22 - 44 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#87)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
USU 2nd straight Road Game
FRES 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Fresno State -9   (SP+ FRES -9)

Projected Score: USU: 26 - FRES: 35 (61)
FRES Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
USU Travel: 545 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (3 - 1) (3 - 1 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 20 (49 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#52)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Utah State vs UTEP-3.559.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 9/6 Utah State at Texas A&M+34.557.5L 22 - 44OY
Sat 9/13 Utah State vs Air Force+4.051.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 9/20 Utah State vs McNeese-11
Sat 9/27 Utah State at Vanderbilt+33.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Utah State at Hawai'i+6
Sat 10/18 Utah State vs San José State+1
Sat 10/25 Utah State at New Mexico+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Utah State vs Nevada-7
Sat 11/15 Utah State at UNLV+13.5
Sat 11/22 Utah State at Fresno State+9
Sat 11/29 Utah State vs Boise State+14.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-3.047.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-13.5
Sat 10/11 Fresno State at Colorado State+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State-2
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-2
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-9
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#72 (.2)40% (101)3334% (121)2.49 (112)13045% (61)2315.31 (21)#94 (.18)47% (115)3050% (118)43% (91)5.38 (130)57.70.31.7
FRES#51 (.25)44% (64)35.344% (70)2.7 (97)20347% (47)1903.58 (90)#126 (.36)50% (125)19.846% (100)53% (129)4.75 (115)4520.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)48% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)48% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense3332239.8%5.310.3193601302313.947%53%34%45%19%.2
FRES Defense419.810.549.7%4.750.8 - - - - - 46%53%46%53%13%.36
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense3304446.7%5.381.7 - - - - - 57%42%50%43%12%.18
FRES Offense435.34943.9%3.582223932031905.855%42%44%47%17%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State326:0419.323%100%957.70.31.752029.7
Fresno State430:332251%67%4.54520.84.81.5229.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense347% (92)34% (121)33.3129.73.97 (38).18 (52)2.49 (112)50% (124)15% (131)1.56 (5)
FRES Defense446% (43)46% (100) - - - - .13 (95)3.28 (120)100% (127)7% (118)0.74 (22)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense357% (117)50% (118) - - - - .21 (113)2.9 (83)75% (80)7% (109)0.9 (61)
FRES Offense455% (45)44% (70)35.32035.812 (3).13 (70)2.7 (97)75% (52)11% (107)1.25 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense353% (44)45% (61)17.327230.78.513.36 (34)0 (1).21 (86)1.4 (101)36% (120)28% (93).16 (107)4% (38)2 (60)
FRES Defense453% (89)53% (129) - - - - - - 3 (28).55 (126)1.5 (71)32% (78)38% (120).45 (108)7% (45)1.8 (50)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense342% (20)43% (91) - - - - - - 4 (12).16 (54)1.2 (15)24% (130)20% (26)-.04 (16)5% (94)1.3 (4)
FRES Offense442% (109)47% (47)1926189.57.3104 (72)5 (129).55 (19)1.7 (27)30% (63)45% (15).77 (12)6% (92)2.3 (22)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -15.70 #117
Utah State's Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -15.70   Fresno State: -3.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -9.3   Fresno State: -0.3




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -3.56 #109
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 7.37 #92
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 19.19 #115
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 22
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense on Road: 44

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 35
Utah State 26


Total Points: 61

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 49
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 10.5

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/13Utah State32Fresno State37Fresno StateFresno State -5.5Utah State56.0Over
202011/14Utah State16Fresno State35Fresno StateFresno State -10.5Fresno State51.5Under
201911/09Fresno State35Utah State37Utah StateFresno State -5Utah State59.0Over
201610/22Utah State38Fresno State20Utah StateUtah State -14Utah State51.0Over
201510/10Fresno State14Utah State56Utah StateUtah State -10Utah State50.0Over
201312/07Fresno State24Utah State17Fresno StateFresno State -6Fresno State0
201110/15Fresno State31Utah State21Fresno State
201009/18Utah State24Fresno State41Fresno State
200910/31Fresno State31Utah State27Fresno State
200810/25Utah State28Fresno State30Fresno State
200711/03Fresno State38Utah State27Fresno State
200610/07Utah State13Fresno State12Utah State
200510/15Fresno State53Utah State21Fresno State
200112/01Fresno State70Utah State21Fresno State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State1024 Overs
Utah State441 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 63 - 32 - 11 - 2
Road Teams6 - 83 - 32 - 11 - 2

(#117) Utah State Info
Power Rating: -15.70 #117
Offense Rating: 8.15 #89
Defense Rating: 23.85 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3 #98
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #68
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.31 PPO
Awful Run Success 34%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.38 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Utah State has lost 7 straight
Utah State has lost 5 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Utah State Notes
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)

Utah State Highlights
Utah State is Undefeated vs Spread

Utah State offense is explosive (#17)
Utah State offense is good in red zone (#21)
Utah State defense does not give up big plays (#12)
Utah State has a great TO Margin (#11)
Utah State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Utah State Deficiencies
Utah State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#129)
Utah State offense is really bad (#101)
Utah State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#116)
Utah State run game is really bad (#121)
Utah State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Utah State has a bad defense (#115)
Utah State has a bad red zone defense (#130)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFRESUSU
OverallOver#64#57
OffenseOff#30#59
DefenseDef#105#60
Special TeamsST#26#103
PassingPass#58#33
RushingRush#11#90
Run BlockRBLK#34#70
Pass BlockPBLK#24#79
Route RunningWR Rt#54#43
TacklingTkl#71#70
Run DefenseR Def#99#61
Pass Rush DefPRush#98#99
Coverage DefCov#109#44

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Utah State in 2023 (37-32)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USU | FRES
Depth Chart: USU | FRES
Rosters: USU | FRES
(#109) Fresno State Info
Power Rating: -3.56 #109
Offense Rating: 7.37 #92
Defense Rating: 19.19 #115
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.75 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 53%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Fresno State has lost 6 straight
Fresno State has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Fresno State Notes
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
(8/1) QB1 Warner out spring, Conklin (Sac St) added
(6/8) RB Donelson 33/263/8ypc last 3, came on late
(6/3) DE Foreman good, CB Hamilton is a great one
(5/23) DC Benedetto was great at NIU past 3 years
(5/12) Fresno will be physical, biggest spring takeaway

Fresno State Highlights
Fresno State is Undefeated at Home
Fresno State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Fresno State has Really Good Running Game (#5)
Fresno State offense is explosive (#18)
Fresno State offense is good on 3rd downs
Fresno State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Fresno State Deficiencies
Fresno State has a bad TO Margin (#131)
Fresno State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Fresno State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#129)
Fresno State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#100)
Fresno State has a bad defense (#125)
Fresno State has a bad defensive line (#120)
Fresno State has a bad red zone defense (#115)


  
Utah State's OC Kevin McGiven
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Barnes518064%689508.6
Anthony Garcia (Tr)11100%3103.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Miles Davis (Tr)3119216.258
Javen Jacobs (Tr)2111515.552
Bryson Barnes466941.518
Anthony Garcia (Tr)117117.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)14208314.954
Brady Boyd (Tr)13190014.624
Miles Davis (Tr)97027.830
Javen Jacobs (Tr)75507.918

View Utah State's Full Roster
Utah State's DC Nick Howell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller335430
Noah Avinger (Tr)260000
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)230003
William Holmes192020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Miller335430
Bronson Olevao183211
Tyree Morris (Tr)152100
Mataira Brown40000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)230003
Carl Nesmith40001
Dylan Tucker (Tr)100001

Fresno State's OC Josh Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)719872%716457.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)5683%42007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson5032526.557
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622456.244
Elijah Gilliam1710125.925
Johnathan Arceneaux105415.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman11149013.530
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)1311008.517
Bryson Donelson887010.939
Rayshon Luke (Tr)128016.720

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Nick Benedetto
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)341001
Camryn Bracha182000
Finn Claypool (Tr)162211
Alzillion Hamilton150001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)162211
Korey Foreman93200
Jayden Davis152120
Jahzon Jacks52120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry60003
K'Vion Thunderbird (Tr)141013
Simeon Harris (Tr)122002