Utah State at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Utah State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (10:30 PM EST)
Bulldog Stadium - Fresno, CA (Mountain West)

Aggies (5 - 4) (7 - 2 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 34 - 30 (24 - 44 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#77)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)

USU 2nd straight Road Game
FRES 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Fresno State -3 (SP+ USU -0)
Projected Score: USU: 25 - FRES: 28 (52)
FRES Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
USU Travel: 545 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (6 - 3) (4 - 5 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 22 (30 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 4.4 (#49)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+6.5	68.5
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+3
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+7.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Fresno State at Kansas	+14.0	51.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 8/30	Fresno State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	54.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Fresno State at Oregon State	+1.0	45.5	W 36 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Fresno State vs Southern	-37.5	51.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Fresno State vs Nevada	-12.5	45.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Fri 10/10	Fresno State at Colorado State	-5.5	47.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Fresno State vs San Diego State	+3.0	46.5	L 0 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/1	Fresno State at Boise State	+17.5	47.5	W 30 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-3.5	40.5
Sat 11/22	Fresno State vs Utah State	-3
Sat 11/29	Fresno State at San José State	+2.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#37 (.24)	43% (72)	33.7	42% (86)	2.74 (99)	159	44% (54)	267	5 (3)	#115 (.24)	46% (121)	29.8	48% (124)	45% (101)	4.32 (120)	57.4	0.8	1.2
FRES	#97 (.13)	43% (67)	26.1	41% (89)	2.67 (114)	154	45% (39)	194	3.47 (93)	#84 (.18)	41% (61)	21.8	42% (68)	40% (56)	3.8 (85)	60.6	1.8	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)		48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)		48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	9	33.7	24.3	42.6%	5	0.8	20	426	159	267	4.7	47%	52%	42%	44%	15%	.24
FRES Defense	9	21.8	15.3	41%	3.8	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	42%	40%	17%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	9	29.8	44	45.9%	4.32	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	48%	45%	12%	.24
FRES Offense	9	26.1	29.5	42.8%	3.47	1.8	20	348	154	194	4.5	49%	49%	41%	45%	17%	.13

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	9	27:20	20.3	33%	67%	7.7	57.4	0.8	1.2	4.3	2.2	1	27.7
Fresno State	9	31:15	19.7	40%	27%	6.7	60.6	1.8	1.8	5.6	1.9	3	32.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	9	47% (98)	42% (86)	33.6	159.1	4.7	17 (40)	.19 (33)	2.74 (99)	79% (23)	11% (115)	1.19 (5)
FRES Defense	9	50% (69)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	.1 (74)	2.95 (88)	81% (119)	10% (54)	0.85 (24)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	9	49% (62)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	.25 (132)	3.15 (118)	75% (88)	7% (130)	1.05 (104)
FRES Offense	9	49% (76)	41% (89)	34	154.3	4.5	16 (49)	-.02 (128)	2.67 (114)	76% (48)	11% (106)	0.95 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	9	52% (38)	44% (54)	19.8	30.4	266.7	8.8	13.5	21 (14)	3 (7)	.31 (56)	1.6 (62)	32% (83)	33% (50)	.44 (27)	4% (21)	2.1 (35)
FRES Defense	9	49% (67)	40% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (12)	.26 (81)	1.6 (103)	33% (55)	30% (74)	.26 (58)	7% (31)	1.8 (29)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	9	50% (79)	45% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (38)	.24 (69)	1.3 (4)	27% (131)	32% (103)	.31 (80)	6% (88)	1.7 (6)
FRES Offense	9	49% (63)	45% (39)	19.3	30.1	193.9	6.4	10	10 (75)	11 (127)	.33 (52)	1.5 (100)	32% (89)	33% (47)	.33 (65)	6% (73)	2 (72)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -11.47 #117
Utah State's Offense Rating: 10.27 #63
Utah State's Defense Rating: 21.74 #133
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.7 #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #50
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #114

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -11.47 Fresno State: -3.985

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -2.7 Fresno State: -2.9

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -3.985 #113
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 2.11 #116
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 12.18 #94
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 4.4
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.9 #81
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.7 #99
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #61

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.3
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 44

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 28
Utah State 25

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 24
Utah State 24

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 32
Utah State 24

Total Points: 56

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.5
Defense: 21.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 3
Record vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/13	Utah State	32	Fresno State	37	Fresno State -5.5	Utah State	56.0	Over
2020	11/14	Utah State	16	Fresno State	35	Fresno State -10.5	Fresno State	51.5	Under
2019	11/09	Fresno State	35	Utah State	37	Fresno State -5	Utah State	59.0	Over
2016	10/22	Utah State	38	Fresno State	20	Utah State -14	Utah State	51.0	Over
2015	10/10	Fresno State	14	Utah State	56	Utah State -10	Utah State	50.0	Over
2013	12/07	Fresno State	24	Utah State	17	Fresno State -6	Fresno State	0
2011	10/15	Fresno State	31	Utah State	21
2010	09/18	Utah State	24	Fresno State	41
2009	10/31	Fresno State	31	Utah State	27
2008	10/25	Utah State	28	Fresno State	30
2007	11/03	Fresno State	38	Utah State	27
2006	10/07	Utah State	13	Fresno State	12
2005	10/15	Fresno State	53	Utah State	21
2001	12/01	Fresno State	70	Utah State	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	10	2	4 Overs
Utah State	4	4	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 6	3 - 3	2 - 1	1 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 8	3 - 3	2 - 1	1 - 2

(#117) USU at (#113) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	FRES
Power RatePwr	#117	#113
SP+SP+	#79	#81
Perf GradeGrade	#75	#66
OffenseOff	#75	#64
DefenseDef	#65	#88
Spec TeamsST	#131	#27
TalentTal	#118	#80
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#88

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

Fresno State Notes(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
Perf GradePerf	#75	#88
SuccessSuc	#72	#61
ExplosiveExp	#15	#65
PPAPPA	#37	#84
PowerPwr	#63	#94
SP+SP+	#50	#61
Pts POPPO	#3	#85
HavocHav	#72	#42

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#86	#104
Run SuccessRSuc	#86	#68
Run ExplRExp	#5	#24
PPAExp	#33	#74
Run BlockR Blk	#126	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#88
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#82
TackleTak	-	#96

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#54	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#103
PPAExp	#56	#81
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#112	#91
F7 HavocF7	#115	#54
DB HavocDB	#21	#31

Fresno State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
Perf GradePerf	#64	#65
SuccessSuc	#67	#121
ExplosiveExp	#87	#33
PPAPPA	#97	#115
PowerPwr	#116	#133
SP+SP+	#99	#114
Pts POPPO	#93	#120
HavocHav	#93	#131

Fresno State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#13	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#89	#124
Run ExplRExp	#75	#104
PPAExp	#128	#132
Run BlockR Blk	#48	-
OL YdsOLY	#114	#118
Stuff RateStuff	#100	#119
TackleTak	-	#89

Fresno State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#97	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#4
PPAExp	#52	#69
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#27	#99
F7 HavocF7	#106	#130
DB HavocDB	#73	#88

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Utah State in 2023 (37-32)

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	154	236	65%	2096	17	3	8.9
Jacob Conover	19	33	58%	245	2	0	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Miles Davis (Tr)	96	609	6	6.3	64
Bryson Barnes	113	407	7	3.6	35
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	48	243	2	5.1	58
Noah White	24	85	0	3.5	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	42	710	5	16.9	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	34	548	5	16.1	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	31	264	2	8.5	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	13	244	2	18.8	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	79	7	6	5	1
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	69	2	1	0	6
Noah Avinger (Tr)	61	0	0	0	5
Bronson Olevao	58	6	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	79	7	6	5	1
Bronson Olevao	58	6	3	5	1
Tyree Morris (Tr)	35	5	3	1	0
William Holmes	43	6	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	69	2	1	0	6
Noah Avinger (Tr)	61	0	0	0	5
Bryson Taylor (Tr)	23	2	0	1	4

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)	139	202	69%	1486	10	9	7.4
Carson Conklin (Tr)	35	69	51%	259	0	2	3.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	79	490	5	6.2	68
Bryson Donelson	105	456	4	4.3	57
Brandon Ramirez	34	163	2	4.8	19
Elijah Gilliam	21	115	3	5.5	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josiah Freeman	31	353	4	11.4	30
Richie Anderson	24	233	2	9.7	24
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)	19	197	0	10.4	41
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	25	167	2	6.7	23

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)	75	6	0	0	1
Simeon Harris (Tr)	37	6	1	0	2
Finn Claypool (Tr)	34	7	6	4	1
Camryn Bracha	32	3	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Finn Claypool (Tr)	34	7	6	4	1
Korey Foreman	15	5	3	1	1
Jahzon Jacks	25	5	3	3	0
Deijon Laffitte	24	5	3	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jakari Embry	18	0	0	0	6
Ryan Wilson	17	2	1	0	3
K'Vion Thunderbird (Tr)	32	2	0	1	3