Utah State at Fresno State Game Matchup
Utah State logo Utah State Aggies at Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Bulldog Stadium - Fresno, CA  (Mountain West)

 
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 32 - 38 (25 - 45 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#120)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
USU 2nd straight Road Game
FRES 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Fresno State -12   (SP+ FRES -9)
Projected Score: USU: 24 - FRES: 36 (60)
FRES Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
USU Travel: 545 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#65)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Utah State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Utah State vs UTEP-3.50.0
Sat 9/6 Utah State at Texas A&M+40.5
Sat 9/13 Utah State vs Air Force+1.5
Sat 9/20 Utah State vs McNeese-7.5
Sat 9/27 Utah State at Vanderbilt+23.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Utah State at Hawai'i+7
Sat 10/18 Utah State vs San José State+8.5
Sat 10/25 Utah State at New Mexico+2
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Utah State vs Nevada-4
Sat 11/15 Utah State at UNLV+13
Sat 11/22 Utah State at Fresno State+12
Sat 11/29 Utah State vs Boise State+23

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/22 Fresno State at Kansas+14.50.0
Fri 8/29 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-1.50.0
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+5.5
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-17
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-13.5
Sat 10/11 Fresno State at Colorado State-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State-8.5
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+18.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-9.5
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-12
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State+4

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#34 (.24)46% (31)31.948% (24)3.41 (12)19944% (37)2694.42 (24)#119 (.27)47% (122)37.848% (112)48% (123)4.44 (122)73.81.81.3
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)26.138% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)24.843% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense1231.925.245.6%4.421.8234681992695.746%54%48%44%16%.24
FRES Defense1324.81840.3%3.631.5 - - - - - 49%51%43%38%14%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense1237.845.247.4%4.441.3 - - - - - 51%49%48%48%15%.27
FRES Offense1326.13239.2%3.681.3193431012423.442%57%38%41%14%.11

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State1227:1922.540%50%7.873.81.81.362.3128.1
Fresno State1327:2918.939%42%6.2551.31.54.41.5230.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense1246% (102)48% (24)35.1199.35.721 (59).26 (13)3.41 (12)65% (117)8% (39)1.11 (18)
FRES Defense1349% (49)43% (74) - - - - .08 (48)2.94 (56)71% (56)8% (121)0.81 (7)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense1251% (69)48% (112) - - - - .25 (124)3.45 (128)76% (85)10% (70)0.96 (56)
FRES Offense1342% (115)38% (121)29.2100.73.421 (59).04 (111)2.73 (115)69% (96)8% (34)0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense1254% (36)44% (37)24.538.2269.17.11129 (12)17 (127).25 (69)1.5 (118)29% (30)33% (54).4 (38)8% (124)2.1 (31)
FRES Defense1351% (86)38% (33) - - - - - - 15 (18).09 (14)1.5 (34)30% (94)29% (37).2 (28)6% (65)2 (52)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense1249% (64)48% (123) - - - - - - 13 (31).32 (106)1.5 (30)27% (129)32% (97).32 (75)5% (99)1.8 (21)
FRES Offense1357% (21)41% (76)2333.1242.17.310.520 (58)14 (115).21 (89)1.6 (65)33% (95)28% (103).24 (100)6% (64)2.1 (63)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -16.72 #114
Utah State's Offense Rating: 9.08 #99
Utah State's Defense Rating: 25.80 #122
2025 Talent Rating: 480.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #117
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #132

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 505.83
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -16.72   Fresno State: -3.76

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -14.8   Fresno State: -6.2




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -3.76 #85
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 8.21 #102
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 14.53 #65
2025 Talent Rating: 708.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.2 #88
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 505.83
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.2

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 36
Utah State 24

Projected Total Points: 60
Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/13Utah State32Fresno State37Fresno StateFresno State -5.5Utah State56.0Over
202011/14Utah State16Fresno State35Fresno StateFresno State -10.5Fresno State51.5Under
201911/09Fresno State35Utah State37Utah StateFresno State -5Utah State59.0Over
201610/22Utah State38Fresno State20Utah StateUtah State -14Utah State51.0Over
201510/10Fresno State14Utah State56Utah StateUtah State -10Utah State50.0Over
201312/07Fresno State24Utah State17Fresno StateFresno State -6Fresno State0
201110/15Fresno State31Utah State21Fresno State
201009/18Utah State24Fresno State41Fresno State
200910/31Fresno State31Utah State27Fresno State
200810/25Utah State28Fresno State30Fresno State
200711/03Fresno State38Utah State27Fresno State
200610/07Utah State13Fresno State12Utah State
200510/15Fresno State53Utah State21Fresno State
200112/01Fresno State70Utah State21Fresno State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State1024 Overs
Utah State441 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 63 - 32 - 11 - 2
Road Teams6 - 83 - 32 - 11 - 2

(#114) Utah State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.72 #114
Offense Rating: 9.08 #99
Defense Rating: 25.80 #122
Overall SP+ Rating: -14.8 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #132
Talent Rating: 480.00 #112
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 3.9 - 8.1

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Good Offense Success Rate of 46%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.42 PPO
Good Run Success 48%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.44 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Awful Pass Def Success 48%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Utah State Notes
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) WR 6 portal adds, Hestera exp. TE Sterzer OK
(3/29) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 1 portal add
(3/29) Def god awful LY. 8 portal adds, new DC
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
(3/22) 7 (of 21) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
Utah State     Ratings Matchup     Fresno State
Power #114
#85
Off #99
#102
Def #122
#65
Talent #112
#71
SP+ #117
#88
SP+ Off #88
#98
SP+ Def #132
#77

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Utah State in 2023 (37-32)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USU | FRES
Depth Chart: USU | FRES
Rosters: USU | FRES
(#85) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -3.76 #85
Offense Rating: 8.21 #102
Defense Rating: 14.53 #65
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.2 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #77
Talent Rating: 708.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Fresno State Notes
(5/12) Fresno will be physical, biggest spring takeaway
(5/11) HC Entz was great at N Dak St (60-11)
(5/11) OC Davis runs combo spread & RPO, QB run
(5/11) Pass D good LY & DBs return some good parts
(5/11) QB1 Warner out of spring, Conklin signed after
(5/11) Final MWC season, join new Pac 12 in '26
(4/30) Portal QB Conklin (Sac St) big portal add
(4/30) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 9 portals, 4 DL help
(4/30) OL returns 4/5, meh LY but could grow up big
(4/7) RB staff high on Donelson. Ramirez can play


  
Utah State's OC Kevin McGiven
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryson Barnes7712661%8561266.8
Jacob Conover2450%22005.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Barnes6853057.863
Javen Jacobs (Tr)4027736.950
Derrick Jameson1514029.372
Miles Davis (Tr)187604.237
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Sterzer20202410.137
Broc Lane19197210.426
Javen Jacobs (Tr)1713017.633
Miles Davis (Tr)568113.626

View Utah State's Full Roster
Utah State's DC Nick Howell
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005
Ike Larsen802009
Bryson Taylor (Tr)5620010
John Miller526242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bronson Olevao234430
John Miller526242
William Holmes62210
Isaiah Bruce192102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryson Taylor (Tr)5620010
Ike Larsen802009
Noah Avinger (Tr)822005

Fresno State's OC Josh Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)27143862%271017136.2
Carson Conklin (Tr)25540663%27592786.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson7847236.143
Elijah Gilliam12146683.924
Johnathan Arceneaux2210404.720
Nathan Acevedo21809.010
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Gilliam3220406.471
Richie Anderson1714708.618
Josiah Freeman895211.934
Bryson Donelson219414.514

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Nick Benedetto
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jayden Davis461002
Jadon Pearson (Tr)423012
Kosi Agina382001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Foreman235241
Sione Noa153230
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
K'Vion Thunderbird (Tr)41100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jadon Pearson (Tr)423012
Jayden Davis461002