Utah State at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Utah State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (10:30 PM EST)
Fresno State -1.5 (50.5) (-125) Open: -1.5
Utah State 28 - Fresno State: 17 (Mountain West)

Aggies (6 - 7) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#79)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

USU 2nd straight Road Game
FRES 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Fresno State -8.5 (SP+ FRES -5)
Projected Score: USU: 21 - FRES: 30 (51)
FRES Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
USU Travel: 545 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
USU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Utah State vs UTEP	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Utah State at Texas A&M	+34.5	57.5	L 22 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Utah State vs Air Force	+4.0	51.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Utah State vs McNeese	-23.5	63.0	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Utah State at Vanderbilt	+23.5	57.5	L 35 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Utah State at Hawai'i	-1.5	57.5	L 26 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/17	Utah State vs San José State	-3.0	63.5	W 30 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Utah State at New Mexico	+3.0	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Utah State vs Nevada	-10.0	52.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Utah State at UNLV	+4.5	68.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Utah State at Fresno State	+1.5	50.5	W 28 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Utah State vs Boise State	+1.5	54.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Mon 12/22	Utah State vs Washington State	-1.0	50.0	L 21 - 34	O	N

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Fresno State at Kansas	+14.0	51.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 8/30	Fresno State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	54.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Fresno State at Oregon State	+1.0	45.5	W 36 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Fresno State vs Southern	-37.5	51.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Fresno State vs Nevada	-12.5	45.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Fri 10/10	Fresno State at Colorado State	-5.5	47.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Fresno State vs San Diego State	+3.0	46.5	L 0 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/1	Fresno State at Boise State	+17.5	47.5	W 30 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-3.0	40.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Fresno State vs Utah State	-1.5	50.5	L 17 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/29	Fresno State at San José State	-3.5	46.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/27	Fresno State vs Miami (OH)	-5.0	41.0	W 18 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU	#34 (.24)	46% (31)	30.9	48% (24)	3.41 (12)	199	44% (37)	269	4.42 (24)	#119 (.27)	47% (122)	28.7	48% (112)	48% (123)	4.44 (122)	73.8	1.8	1.3
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)	25.8	38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)	18.8	43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Offense	12	30.9	25.2	45.6%	4.42	1.8	23	468	199	269	5.7	46%	54%	48%	44%	16%	.24
FRES Defense	13	18.8	15.3	40.3%	3.63	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	43%	38%	14%	.08

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USU Defense	12	28.7	37	47.4%	4.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	48%	48%	15%	.27
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.5	39.2%	3.68	1.3	19	343	101	242	3.4	42%	57%	38%	41%	14%	.11

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah State	12	27:19	22.5	40%	50%	7.8	73.8	1.8	1.3	6	2.3	1	28.1
Fresno State	13	27:29	18.9	39%	42%	6.2	55	1.3	1.5	4.4	1.5	2	30.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Offense	12	46% (102)	48% (24)	35.1	199.3	5.7	21 (59)	.26 (13)	3.41 (12)	65% (117)	8% (39)	1.11 (18)
FRES Defense	13	49% (49)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.08 (48)	2.94 (56)	71% (56)	8% (121)	0.81 (7)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USU Defense	12	51% (69)	48% (112)	-	-	-	-	.25 (124)	3.45 (128)	76% (85)	10% (70)	0.96 (56)
FRES Offense	13	42% (115)	38% (121)	29.2	100.7	3.4	21 (59)	.04 (111)	2.73 (115)	69% (96)	8% (34)	0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Offense	12	54% (36)	44% (37)	24.5	38.2	269.1	7.1	11	29 (12)	17 (127)	.25 (69)	1.5 (118)	29% (30)	33% (54)	.4 (38)	8% (124)	2.1 (31)
FRES Defense	13	51% (86)	38% (33)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.09 (14)	1.5 (34)	30% (94)	29% (37)	.2 (28)	6% (65)	2 (52)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USU Defense	12	49% (64)	48% (123)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.32 (106)	1.5 (30)	27% (129)	32% (97)	.32 (75)	5% (99)	1.8 (21)
FRES Offense	13	57% (21)	41% (76)	23	33.1	242.1	7.3	10.5	20 (58)	14 (115)	.21 (89)	1.6 (65)	33% (95)	28% (103)	.24 (100)	6% (64)	2.1 (63)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -16.87 #124
Utah State's Offense Rating: 6.59 #111
Utah State's Defense Rating: 23.46 #130
2025 Talent Rating: 488.00 #118
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Utah State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.3 - 6.7
Utah State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.1 #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #53
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -16.87 Fresno State: -1.525

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -3.1 Fresno State: 1.8

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -1.525 #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 5.63 #117
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 15.48 #84
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #66
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 30
Utah State 21

Projected Total Points: 51

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Fresno State	17	Utah State	28	Fresno State -1.5	Utah State	50.5	Under
2023	10/13	Utah State	32	Fresno State	37	Fresno State -5.5	Utah State	56.0	Over
2020	11/14	Utah State	16	Fresno State	35	Fresno State -10.5	Fresno State	51.5	Under
2019	11/09	Fresno State	35	Utah State	37	Fresno State -5	Utah State	59.0	Over
2016	10/22	Utah State	38	Fresno State	20	Utah State -14	Utah State	51.0	Over
2015	10/10	Fresno State	14	Utah State	56	Utah State -10	Utah State	50.0	Over
2013	12/07	Fresno State	24	Utah State	17	Fresno State -6	Fresno State	0
2011	10/15	Fresno State	31	Utah State	21
2010	09/18	Utah State	24	Fresno State	41
2009	10/31	Fresno State	31	Utah State	27
2008	10/25	Utah State	28	Fresno State	30
2007	11/03	Fresno State	38	Utah State	27
2006	10/07	Utah State	13	Fresno State	12
2005	10/15	Fresno State	53	Utah State	21
2001	12/01	Fresno State	70	Utah State	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	10	2	4 Overs
Utah State	5	5	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 7	3 - 4	2 - 2	1 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 8	4 - 3	2 - 1	2 - 2

(#124) USU at (#102) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USU	FRES
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#124	#102
SP+SP+	#79	#66
Perf GradeGrade	#97	#61
OffenseOff	#87	#64
DefenseDef	#85	#68
Spec TeamsST	#121	#26
TalentTal	#118	#80
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#88

Utah State Notes(10/18) Nice W SJSU, Box score L, OGd by 70, only 5-15 3rd
(9/28) Off has been good, QB Bryson Barnes upped his game
(8/30) Def good vs UTEP, Run game meh, Barnes good
(8/1) 10 (of 29) portal adds from NM w/ Bronco
(8/1) WR 7 portal adds, no exp, TE room decent
(8/1) Def god awful LY. 13 portal adds, new DC
(8/1) Over bet watch, Off tempo + Def will be awful
(7/19) OL 2/5 back, good LY. Only 2 portal adds
(3/29) QB Barnes started early/late LY. Garcia (AZ) add
(3/29) RB rebuild Jacobs(NM), Davis(BYU), added
(3/29) New OC McGiven longtime OC, SJSU PGC LY
(3/22) New HC Mendenhall from NM (UVA/BYU)
Utah State Injury Report

Fresno State Notes(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report

Utah State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#87	#68
SuccessSuc	#31	#51
ExplosiveExp	#59	#13
PPAPPA	#34	#17
PowerPwr	#111	#84
SP+SP+	#53	#37
Pts POPPO	#24	#47
HavocHav	#81	#113

Utah State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#68	#99
Run SuccessRSuc	#24	#74
Run ExplRExp	#18	#7
PPAExp	#13	#48
Run BlockR Blk	#118	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#46	#65
TackleTak	-	#76

Utah State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	USU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	#37	#33
Pass ExplPExl	#118	#34
PPAExp	#69	#14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#98	#78
F7 HavocF7	#39	#121
DB HavocDB	#124	#65

Fresno State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#64	#85
SuccessSuc	#110	#122
ExplosiveExp	#38	#42
PPAPPA	#110	#119
PowerPwr	#117	#130
SP+SP+	#100	#98
Pts POPPO	#91	#122
HavocHav	#34	#81

Fresno State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#44	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	#121	#112
Run ExplRExp	#76	#56
PPAExp	#111	#124
Run BlockR Blk	#45	-
OL YdsOLY	#115	#128
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#95
TackleTak	-	#111

Fresno State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#85	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	#76	#123
Pass ExplPExl	#65	#30
PPAExp	#89	#106
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#22	#110
F7 HavocF7	#34	#70
DB HavocDB	#64	#99

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Fresno State -1.5 (50.5)
Utah State won at Fresno State this year (28-17)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Fresno State last year (28-17)
Fresno State beat Utah State in 2023 (37-32)

USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	211	356	59%	2802	18	5	7.9
Jacob Conover	24	39	62%	323	4	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Barnes	189	740	10	3.9	58
Miles Davis (Tr)	131	732	8	5.6	64
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	65	429	5	6.6	58
Noah White	25	93	0	3.7	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braden Pegan (Tr)	60	925	5	15.4	54
Brady Boyd (Tr)	46	743	8	16.2	53
Javen Jacobs (Tr)	43	379	3	8.8	30
Anthony Garcia (Tr)	20	348	2	17.4	74

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Miller	118	10	8	8	3
Bronson Olevao	88	8	4	6	3
Tyree Morris (Tr)	46	6	4	1	1
Chris Joe	41	6	4	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Avinger (Tr)	81	4	1	1	10
Brevin Hamblin (Tr)	110	3	2	0	8
Bryson Taylor (Tr)	32	2	0	1	5

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)	192	277	69%	2030	13	11	7.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)	47	96	49%	354	1	2	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	110	699	6	6.4	69
Bryson Donelson	142	583	5	4.1	57
Brandon Ramirez	60	271	3	4.5	19
Johnathan Arceneaux	40	267	2	6.7	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josiah Freeman	52	642	6	12.3	51
Richie Anderson	31	300	3	9.7	25
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)	28	255	0	9.1	41
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	36	228	2	6.3	23

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)	96	6	0	1	3
Simeon Harris (Tr)	53	7	1	0	5
Camryn Bracha	52	3	0	0	4
Finn Claypool (Tr)	41	11	7	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Finn Claypool (Tr)	41	11	7	4	1
Korey Foreman	19	6	4	2	2
Jahzon Jacks	32	7	4	3	0
Deijon Laffitte	27	5	3	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jakari Embry	26	0	0	7
Simeon Harris (Tr)	53	7	1	5
Ryan Wilson	25	2	1	4