Southern at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Southern Jaguars at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (10:00 PM EDT)
Fresno State -37.5 (51.5) (0) Open: -35.5
Fresno State 56 - Southern: 7

Jaguars (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 7 - 56 (7 - 56 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -3.5 (SP+ FRES -0)
FRES Win prob: 100% | Cover: 35%

Bulldogs (3 - 1) (3 - 1 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 20 (49 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#52)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
SOU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Southern's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Southern at Fresno State	+37.5	51.5	L 7 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern's Schedule

Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Fresno State at Kansas	+14.0	51.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 8/30	Fresno State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	54.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Fresno State at Oregon State	+1.0	45.5	W 36 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Fresno State vs Southern	-37.5	51.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-3.0	47.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Fresno State vs Nevada	-13.5
Sat 10/11	Fresno State at Colorado State	+1.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Fresno State vs San Diego State	-2
Sat 11/1	Fresno State at Boise State	+13
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-2
Sat 11/22	Fresno State vs Utah State	-9
Sat 11/29	Fresno State at San José State	-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SOU		0%	7	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	56	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES	#51 (.25)	44% (64)	35.3	44% (70)	2.7 (97)	203	47% (47)	190	3.58 (90)	#126 (.36)	50% (125)	19.8	46% (100)	53% (129)	4.75 (115)	45	2	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SOU Offense	1	7	7	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
FRES Defense	4	19.8	10.5	49.7%	4.75	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	46%	53%	13%	.36

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SOU Defense	1	56	56	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
FRES Offense	4	35.3	49	43.9%	3.58	2	22	393	203	190	5.8	55%	42%	44%	47%	17%	.25

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Southern	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Fresno State	4	30:33	22	51%	67%	4.5	45	2	0.8	4.8	1.5	2	29.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SOU Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
FRES Defense	4	46% (43)	46% (100)	-	-	-	-	.13 (95)	3.28 (120)	100% (127)	7% (118)	0.74 (22)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SOU Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
FRES Offense	4	55% (45)	44% (70)	35.3	203	5.8	12 (3)	.13 (70)	2.7 (97)	75% (52)	11% (107)	1.25 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SOU Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
FRES Defense	4	53% (89)	53% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (28)	.55 (126)	1.5 (71)	32% (78)	38% (120)	.45 (108)	7% (45)	1.8 (50)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SOU Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
FRES Offense	4	42% (109)	47% (47)	19	26	189.5	7.3	10	4 (72)	5 (129)	.55 (19)	1.7 (27)	30% (63)	45% (15)	.77 (12)	6% (92)	2.3 (22)

Southern's Power Ratings
Southern's Power Rating: #NR
Southern's Offense Rating: #NR
Southern's Defense Rating: #NR
2025 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Southern's 2025 Expected Record: -
Southern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average SWAC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern: Fresno State: -3.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern: Fresno State: -0.3

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -3.56 #109
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 7.37 #92
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 19.19 #115
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Southern Scoring
Offense: 7 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 56 PPG
Defense on Road: 56

Southern's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 49
Southern 11

Total Points: 60

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 49
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 10.5

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Fresno State	56	Southern	7	Fresno State	Fresno State -37.5	Fresno State	51.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	1	1	1 Overs
Southern	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#NR) Southern Info
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Southern Highlights

Southern Deficiencies
Southern has a really bad Offense
Southern Defense Gives up a Lot of Points

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	FRES	SOU
OverallOver	#64	#36
OffenseOff	#30	#66
DefenseDef	#105	#19
Special TeamsST	#26	#23
PassingPass	#58	#53
RushingRush	#11	#64
Run BlockRBLK	#34	#89
Pass BlockPBLK	#24	#52
Route RunningWR Rt	#54	#41
TacklingTkl	#71	#21
Run DefenseR Def	#99	#53
Pass Rush DefPRush	#98	#25
Coverage DefCov	#109	#11

Rematch from Week 3
Fresno State -37.5 (51.5)
Fresno State won vs Southern this year (56-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SOU | FRES
Depth Chart: SOU | FRES
Rosters: SOU | FRES

(#109) Fresno State Info
Power Rating: -3.56 #109
Offense Rating: 7.37 #92
Defense Rating: 19.19 #115
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.75 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 53%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Fresno State has won 2 straight
Fresno State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Fresno State Notes
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
(8/1) QB1 Warner out spring, Conklin (Sac St) added
(6/8) RB Donelson 33/263/8ypc last 3, came on late
(6/3) DE Foreman good, CB Hamilton is a great one
(5/23) DC Benedetto was great at NIU past 3 years
(5/12) Fresno will be physical, biggest spring takeaway

Fresno State Highlights
Fresno State is Undefeated at Home
Fresno State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Fresno State has Really Good Running Game (#5)
Fresno State offense is explosive (#18)
Fresno State offense is good on 3rd downs
Fresno State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Fresno State Deficiencies
Fresno State has a bad TO Margin (#131)
Fresno State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Fresno State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#129)
Fresno State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#100)
Fresno State has a bad defense (#125)
Fresno State has a bad defensive line (#120)
Fresno State has a bad red zone defense (#115)

Southern's OC

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cam'Ron McCoy	32	64	50%	316	2	2	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trey Holly	44	228	3	5.2	80
Cam'Ron McCoy	30	177	2	5.9	69
Mike Franklin	25	122	0	4.9	24
Darren Morris	1	5	0	5.0	5

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darren Morris	7	106	1	15.1	35
Dupree Fuller	6	44	0	7.3	12
Trey Holly	5	39	0	7.8	14
Mike Franklin	1	13	0	13.0	13

View Southern's Full Roster

Southern's DC

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS
Horacio Johnson	5	0	0
De'Myrion Johnson (Tr)	5	0	0
Ckelby Givens	3	1	1
Zay Franks (Tr)	2	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS
Ckelby Givens	3	1	1
Horacio Johnson	5	0	0
De'Myrion Johnson (Tr)	5	0	0
Zay Franks (Tr)	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS
Horacio Johnson	5	0	0
De'Myrion Johnson (Tr)	5	0	0
Ckelby Givens	3	1	1

Fresno State's OC Josh Davis

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)	71	98	72%	716	4	5	7.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)	5	6	83%	42	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	50	325	2	6.5	57
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	36	224	5	6.2	44
Elijah Gilliam	17	101	2	5.9	25
Johnathan Arceneaux	10	54	1	5.4	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josiah Freeman	11	149	0	13.5	30
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)	13	110	0	8.5	17
Bryson Donelson	8	87	0	10.9	39
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	12	80	1	6.7	20

View Fresno State's Full Roster

Fresno State's DC Nick Benedetto

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)	34	1	0	0	1
Camryn Bracha	18	2	0	0	0
Finn Claypool (Tr)	16	2	2	1	1
Alzillion Hamilton	15	0	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Finn Claypool (Tr)	16	2	2	1	1
Korey Foreman	9	3	2	0	0
Jayden Davis	15	2	1	2	0
Jahzon Jacks	5	2	1	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jakari Embry	6	0	0	3
K'Vion Thunderbird (Tr)	14	1	1	3
Simeon Harris (Tr)	12	2	0	2