Southern at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Southern logo Southern Jaguars at Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (10:00 PM EDT)
Fresno State -37.5 (51.5) (0)  Open: -35.5
Fresno State 56 - Southern: 7

 
Jaguars (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 7 - 56 (7 - 56 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -1.5  (SP+ FRES -1)
FRES Win prob: 100% | Cover: 35%
Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Southern's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Southern at Fresno State+37.551.5L 7 - 56ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Southern's Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.547.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 20 - 17UN
Fri 10/10 Fresno State at Colorado State-5.547.5L 21 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.046.5L 0 - 23UN
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+17.547.5W 30 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-3.040.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-1.550.5L 17 - 28UN
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-3.546.0W 41 - 14OY
Sat 12/27 Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-5.041.0W 18 - 3UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SOU0%70%000%000%560%0%0000
FRES#105 (.11)39% (110)25.838% (120)2.79 (101)15741% (78)1673.29 (111)#40 (.1)39% (32)18.843% (77)35% (14)3.26 (34)55.21.51.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SOU Offense1770%00000000%0%0%0%0%
FRES Defense1318.815.338.8%3.261.8 - - - - - 50%49%43%35%18%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SOU Defense156560%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
FRES Offense1325.826.538.6%3.291.5183241571674.753%45%38%41%15%.11

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Southern10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Fresno State1329:2017.536%40%655.21.51.84.91.6333.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SOU Offense10%0%000000%0%0
FRES Defense1350% (62)43% (77) - - - - .09 (62)3 (93)74% (92)10% (66)0.82 (8)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SOU Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
FRES Offense1353% (41)38% (120)33.3157.14.722 (49).02 (114)2.79 (101)73% (59)10% (86)1.01 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SOU Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
FRES Defense1349% (75)35% (14) - - - - - - 19 (12).14 (24)1.6 (91)33% (43)27% (30).17 (24)8% (12)1.8 (14)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SOU Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
FRES Offense1345% (99)41% (78)17.227166.56.29.713 (75)13 (127).25 (64)1.5 (78)33% (97)30% (73).31 (70)5% (48)2 (86)

Southern's Power Ratings
Southern's Power Rating: NR
Southern's Offense Rating: NR
Southern's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Southern's 2025 Expected Record: -
Southern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average SWAC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern:    Fresno State: -1.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern:    Fresno State: 1.1




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -1.295  #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 0.27  #127
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 8.96  #73
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #67
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #96
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.5  #43

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Southern Scoring
Offense: 7 PPG
Offense on Road: 7
Defense: 56 PPG
Defense on Road: 56

Southern's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 43
Southern 14

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 46
Southern 16

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 41
Southern 12

Total Points: 53
Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Fresno State56Southern7Fresno State -37.5Fresno State51.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State111 Overs
Southern000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#NR) SOU at (#102) FRES
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSOUFRES
Power RatePwrNR #102
SP+SP+NR #67
Perf GradeGrade #36 #65
OffenseOff #76 #72
DefenseDef #10 #66
Spec TeamsST #40 #31
TalentTalNR #80
Blue ChipsBC%NR #88
Fresno State Notes
(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report
Southern on Offense
CategoryCat
SOU OffFRES Def
Perf GradePerf #76 #66
SuccessSucNR #32
ExplosiveExpNR #20
PPAPPANR #40
PowerPwrNR #73
SP+SP+NR #43
Pts POPPONR #34
HavocHavNR #32
Southern Run Game
CategoryCat
SOU OffFRES Def
Run GameRun #116 #114
Run SuccessRSucNR #77
Run ExplRExpNR #8
PPAExpNR #62
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLYNR #93
Stuff RateStuffNR #50
TackleTak -  #98
Southern Pass Game
CategoryCat
SOU OffFRES Def
Pass GamePass #35 #26
Pass SuccessPSucNR #14
Pass ExplPExlNR #91
PPAExpNR #24
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #45 #62
F7 HavocF7NR #66
DB HavocDBNR #12
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFRES OffSOU Def
Perf GradePerf #72 #10
SuccessSuc #110NR
ExplosiveExp #55NR
PPAPPA #105NR
PowerPwr #127NR
SP+SP+ #96NR
Pts POPPO #111NR
HavocHav #65NR
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffSOU Def
Run GameRun #34 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #120NR
Run ExplRExp #51NR
PPAExp #114NR
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #101NR
Stuff RateStuff #91NR
TackleTak -  #31
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFRES OffSOU Def
Pass GamePass #91 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #78NR
Pass ExplPExl #78NR
PPAExp #64NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #21 #33
F7 HavocF7 #86NR
DB HavocDB #48NR
Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

SOU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 86° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Fresno State -37.5 (51.5)
Fresno State won vs Southern this year (56-7)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
SOU's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cam'Ron McCoy5110847%698526.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Trey Holly16283095.180
Cam'Ron McCoy5123944.769
Mike Franklin3413904.124
Princeton Cahee53006.014
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Darren Morris27508418.871
Dupree Fuller13159112.254
Trey Holly1512608.419
AJ Stephens120020.020

View Southern's Full Roster

SOU's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Horacio Johnson50000
De'Myrion Johnson (Tr)50000
Ckelby Givens31100
Zay Franks (Tr)20000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ckelby Givens31100
Horacio Johnson50000
De'Myrion Johnson (Tr)50000
Zay Franks (Tr)20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Horacio Johnson50000
De'Myrion Johnson (Tr)50000
Ckelby Givens31100

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)19327869%202513117.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)479649%354123.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)11069966.469
Bryson Donelson14258354.157
Brandon Ramirez6027134.519
Johnathan Arceneaux4026726.758
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman52642612.351
Richie Anderson32321310.025
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)2825509.141
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622826.323

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)966013
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Camryn Bracha523004
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
Korey Foreman196422
Jahzon Jacks327430
Deijon Laffitte275303
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry260007
Simeon Harris (Tr)537105
Alzillion Hamilton342015