Miami (OH) at App State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Miami (OH) RedHawks vs App State Mountaineers

Saturday, December 16th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
App State -6.5 (41.0) (-210) Open: -4.5 | 48.5
App State 13 - Miami (OH): 9 (Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl)

RedHawks (11 - 3) (11 - 3 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (47 - 60)
Avg Score : 26 - 16 (26 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Miami (OH) -0 (SP+ M-OH -0.5)
Projected Score: M-OH: 23 - APP: 23 (46)
APP Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
M-OH Travel: 283 miles

Mountaineers (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (28 - 14)
Avg Score : 33 - 27 (41 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
M-OH Players
APP Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Miami (OH) at Miami	+16.5	45.0	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/9	Miami (OH) at Massachusetts	-7.0	45.0	W 41 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Miami (OH) at Cincinnati	+14.5	44.5	W 31 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Miami (OH) vs Delaware State	-40.5	49.5	W 62 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Miami (OH) at Kent State	-14.0	51.5	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green	-7.5	43.0	W 27 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Miami (OH) at Western Michigan	-7.5	46.0	W 34 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Miami (OH) vs Toledo	+2.0	46.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/28	Miami (OH) at Ohio	+7.5	39.0	W 30 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/8	Miami (OH) vs Akron	-17.5	37.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
Wed 11/15	Miami (OH) vs Buffalo	-7.5	36.5	W 23 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Miami (OH) at Ball State	-3.5	34.5	W 17 - 15	U	N
Sat 12/2	Miami (OH) vs Toledo	+8.5	46.0	W 23 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/16	Miami (OH) vs App State	+6.5	41.0	L 9 - 13	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule

App State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	App State vs Gardner-Webb	-22.5	51.0	W 45 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/9	App State at North Carolina	+18.0	58.0	L 34 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/16	App State vs East Carolina	-7.5	48.5	W 43 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/23	App State at Wyoming	+3.0	45.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/30	App State at UL Monroe	-13.5	50.5	W 41 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/10	App State vs Coastal Carolina	-4.5	59.0	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/21	App State at Old Dominion	-6.0	56.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	App State vs Southern Miss	-16.0	55.5	W 48 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/4	App State vs Marshall	-3.0	57.5	W 31 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/11	App State at Georgia State	+2.5	62.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	App State at James Madison	+10.0	56.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/25	App State vs Georgia Southern	-7.5	62.5	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/2	App State at Troy	+6.5	51.5	L 23 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	App State vs Miami (OH)	-6.5	41.0	W 13 - 9	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#78 (.18)	37% (122)	25.6	35% (129)	2.95 (99)	158	39% (93)	165	3.99 (57)	#20 (.1)	40% (48)	15.9	41% (47)	41% (61)	3.06 (14)	39.1	1.1	1.2
APP	#41 (.24)	46% (28)	33.2	43% (75)	3.18 (55)	172	50% (11)	273	3.8 (77)	#79 (.2)	43% (76)	27	45% (93)	41% (58)	3.15 (17)	40.5	1.6	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
M-OH	#95 (.15)	41% (97)		38% (119)	3.1 (51)	121	44% (48)	204	3.43 (108)	#38 (.12)	44% (92)		46% (100)	42% (74)	2.91 (6)	38.6	1.1	1.4
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)		45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)		51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Offense	14	25.6	25.6	36.5%	3.99	1.1	15	324	158	165	4.4	58%	41%	35%	39%	18%	.18
APP Defense	14	27	25.5	42.6%	3.15	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	45%	41%	18%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
M-OH Defense	14	15.9	20.7	40.5%	3.06	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	41%	41%	17%	.1
APP Offense	14	33.2	41	45.6%	3.8	1.6	24	445	172	273	4.5	51%	48%	43%	50%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami (OH)	14	29:37	15.3	36%	31%	4.7	39.1	1.1	1.2	5.3	2.5	0	35.4
App State	14	31:15	23.7	42%	64%	4.4	40.5	1.6	1.8	6	2.5	2	29.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense	14	58% (15)	35% (129)	35.9	158.1	4.4	23 (46)	.1 (94)	2.95 (99)	80% (20)	11% (82)	1.08 (25)
APP Defense	14	50% (59)	45% (93)	-	-	-	-	.23 (112)	3.41 (120)	79% (108)	11% (40)	1.1 (113)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense	14	52% (92)	41% (47)	-	-	-	-	.06 (23)	3.11 (70)	72% (60)	10% (69)	0.87 (19)
APP Offense	14	51% (58)	43% (75)	38.1	171.6	4.5	23 (46)	.09 (99)	3.18 (55)	71% (92)	9% (49)	0.97 (83)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense	14	41% (120)	39% (93)	11.8	21	165.4	7.9	14	16 (92)	7 (21)	.31 (59)	1.8 (18)	35% (117)	25% (119)	.21 (104)	7% (107)	1.9 (116)
APP Defense	14	49% (72)	41% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.2 (30)	1.5 (36)	31% (81)	33% (110)	.43 (117)	7% (29)	2.1 (89)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense	14	47% (39)	41% (61)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.2 (27)	1.3 (1)	29% (119)	24% (10)	.15 (7)	8% (20)	1.8 (11)
APP Offense	14	48% (75)	50% (11)	21.4	33.6	273.4	8.1	12.8	34 (9)	10 (56)	.44 (19)	1.6 (65)	29% (28)	37% (16)	.5 (19)	7% (108)	2.1 (45)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -0.16 #62
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 13.13 #100
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 3.90 #20
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
Miami (OH)'s 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #52
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #106
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #14

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -0.16 App State: 1.57

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 3.7 App State: 3.0

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: 1.57 #58
App State's Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
App State's Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
App State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
App State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.6
Defense: 15.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.7

Miami (OH)'s 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Miami (OH) 23
App State 23

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Miami (OH) 24
App State 24

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
App State 28
Miami (OH) 26

Total Points: 54

App State Scoring
Offense: 33.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 41
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.5

App State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/16	App State	13	Miami (OH)	9	App State -6.5	Miami (OH)	41.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
App State	1	0	0 Overs
Miami (OH)	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Miami (OH) Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Cure Bowl	Miami (OH) vs App State	+6.5	41.0	L 9 - 13
2022	Bahamas Bowl	Miami (OH) vs UAB	+11.0	44.5	L 20 - 24
2021	Frisco Football Classic	Miami (OH) vs North Texas	-2.0	56.5	W 27 - 14
2019	Lendingtree Bowl	Miami (OH) vs Louisiana	+15.5	55.5	L 17 - 27

App State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Cure Bowl	App State vs Miami (OH)	-6.5	41.0	W 13 - 9
2021	Raton Bowl	App State vs Western Kentucky	-3.0	67.0	L 38 - 59
2020	Beach Bowl	App State vs North Texas	-21.5	67.5	W 56 - 28
2019	Orleans Bowl	App State vs UAB	-17.5	48.0	W 31 - 17
2018	Orleans Bowl	App State vs Middle Tennessee	-6.5	48.0	W 45 - 13
2017	General Bowl	App State vs Toledo	+6.0	61.5	W 34 - 0

(#62) M-OH at (#58) APP

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	M-OH	APP
Power RatePwr	#62	#58
SP+SP+	#52	#55
Perf GradeGrade	#28	#40
OffenseOff	#66	#28
DefenseDef	#25	#70
Spec TeamsST	#1	#128
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Miami (OH) Injury Report

App State Injury Report

Miami (OH) on Offense


CategoryCat	M-OH Off	APP Def
Perf GradePerf	#66	#70
SuccessSuc	#122	#76
ExplosiveExp	#17	#70
PPAPPA	#78	#79
PowerPwr	#100	#51
SP+SP+	#106	#102
Pts POPPO	#57	#17
HavocHav	#95	#26

Miami (OH) Run Game


CategoryCat	M-OH Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	#95	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	#129	#93
Run ExplRExp	#25	#113
PPAExp	#94	#112
Run BlockR Blk	#17	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#73	#95
TackleTak	-	#65

Miami (OH) Pass Game


CategoryCat	M-OH Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	#48	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#58
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#36
PPAExp	#59	#30
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#88	#34
F7 HavocF7	#82	#40
DB HavocDB	#107	#29

App State on Offense


CategoryCat	APP Off	M-OH Def
Perf GradePerf	#28	#25
SuccessSuc	#28	#48
ExplosiveExp	#64	#3
PPAPPA	#41	#20
PowerPwr	#38	#20
SP+SP+	#24	#14
Pts POPPO	#77	#14
HavocHav	#73	#40

App State Run Game


CategoryCat	APP Off	M-OH Def
Run GameRun	#88	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#75	#47
Run ExplRExp	#83	#19
PPAExp	#99	#23
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#55	#70
Stuff RateStuff	#56	#104
TackleTak	-	#56

App State Pass Game


CategoryCat	APP Off	M-OH Def
Pass GamePass	#38	#36
Pass SuccessPSuc	#11	#61
Pass ExplPExl	#65	#1
PPAExp	#19	#27
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#105	#31
F7 HavocF7	#49	#69
DB HavocDB	#108	#20

Program Comparison
APP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
App State -6.5 (41.0)
App State won vs Miami (OH) this year (13-9)

Previous Matchups
App State beat Miami (OH) in 2023 (13-9)

M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brett Gabbert	111	188	59%	1634	14	5	8.7
Aveon Smith	48	96	50%	638	2	2	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rashad Amos (Tr)	210	1075	13	5.1	66
Aveon Smith	75	280	1	3.7	50
Kenny Tracy	46	250	2	5.4	42
Keyon Mozee	34	151	2	4.4	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gage Larvadain	43	696	7	16.2	99
Cade McDonald	28	355	3	12.7	42
Joe Wilkins	25	343	1	13.7	49
Javon Tracy	21	331	1	15.8	52

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Salopek	137	9	3	3	3
Ty Wise	122	9	8	5	5
Jacquez Warren	71	5	0	0	4
Brian Ugwu	62	12	8	10	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caiden Woullard	41	12	10	9	1
Ty Wise	122	9	8	5	5
Brian Ugwu	62	12	8	10	0
Matthew Salopek	137	9	3	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Raion Strader	57	2	0	0	12
Yahsyn McKee	58	2	0	0	11
Austin Ertl	39	2	1	6	5

APP's OC Frank Ponce (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	292	459	64%	3754	33	10	8.2
Ryan Burger	7	11	64%	73	1	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel	173	825	5	4.8	68
Kanye Roberts	123	696	7	5.7	61
Maquel Haywood (Tr)	60	318	2	5.3	31
Anderson Castle	53	283	2	5.3	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	67	905	10	13.5	52
Christan Horn	36	566	6	15.7	52
Makai Jackson (Tr)	27	418	2	15.5	67
Dalton Stroman	20	390	3	19.5	77

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC Scott Sloan (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Parker	109	6	2	4	2
Nicholas Ross	101	4	2	2	4
Caden Sullivan	64	4	1	1	1
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	0	11

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Johnson	42	9	8	5	1
Michael Fletcher (Tr)	22	5	5	8	1
Santana Hopper	33	7	4	3	0
Shawn Collins (Tr)	23	4	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	11
Tyrek Funderburk (Tr)	47	3	1	8
E.J. Jackson (Tr)	47	3	0	7