Fresno State at Colorado State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Fresno State Bulldogs at Colorado State Rams

Friday, October 10th 2025 (9:00 PM EDT)
Fresno State -5.5 (47.5) (-205) Open: -7.0
Colorado State 49 - Fresno State: 21 (Mountain West)

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)

CSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -7 (SP+ FRES -17.5)
Projected Score: FRES: 27 - CSU: 20 (48)
FRES Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
FRES Travel: 831 miles, 1 hrs behind

Rams (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (16 - 20)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
FRES Players
CSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Fresno State at Kansas	+14.0	51.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 8/30	Fresno State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	54.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Fresno State at Oregon State	+1.0	45.5	W 36 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Fresno State vs Southern	-37.5	51.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Fresno State vs Nevada	-12.5	45.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Fri 10/10	Fresno State at Colorado State	-5.5	47.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Fresno State vs San Diego State	+3.0	46.5	L 0 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/1	Fresno State at Boise State	+17.5	47.5	W 30 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-3.0	40.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Fresno State vs Utah State	-1.5	50.5	L 17 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/29	Fresno State at San José State	-3.5	46.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/27	Fresno State vs Miami (OH)	-5.0	41.0	W 18 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Colorado State at Washington	+20.5	52.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Colorado State vs Northern Colorado	-35.0	52.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Colorado State vs UTSA	+4.5	58.5	L 16 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Colorado State vs Washington State	-4.5	48.5	L 3 - 20	U	N
Fri 10/3	Colorado State at San Diego State	+4.5	40.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Fri 10/10	Colorado State vs Fresno State	+5.5	47.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Colorado State vs Hawai'i	-2.5	53.5	L 19 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/25	Colorado State at Wyoming	+5.5	46.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Colorado State vs UNLV	+5.5	60.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/15	Colorado State at New Mexico	+15.5	53.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Colorado State at Boise State	+17.5	46.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/28	Colorado State vs Air Force	+2.5	47.5	L 21 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)	25.8	38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)	18.8	43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5
CSU	#90 (.16)	42% (76)	18.5	43% (80)	2.88 (96)	162	41% (81)	192	3.56 (98)	#61 (.16)	42% (78)	30.8	42% (59)	43% (94)	4 (88)	47.3	1.2	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.3	39.2%	3.68	1.3	19	343	101	242	3.4	42%	57%	38%	41%	14%	.11
CSU Defense	13	30.8	27.1	42.4%	4	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	42%	43%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FRES Defense	13	18.8	24.8	40.3%	3.63	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	43%	38%	14%	.08
CSU Offense	13	18.5	19.9	42.2%	3.56	1.2	16	354	162	192	4.9	55%	45%	43%	41%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Fresno State	13	27:29	18.9	39%	42%	6.2	55	1.3	1.5	4.4	1.5	2	30.7
Colorado State	13	28:44	16.5	35%	64%	5.8	47.3	1.2	1.5	4.2	1.1	2	27.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Offense	13	42% (115)	38% (121)	29.2	100.7	3.4	21 (59)	.04 (111)	2.73 (115)	69% (96)	8% (34)	0.95 (76)
CSU Defense	13	49% (51)	42% (59)	-	-	-	-	.1 (55)	3.01 (70)	69% (45)	9% (91)	1.02 (88)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FRES Defense	13	49% (49)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.08 (48)	2.94 (56)	71% (56)	8% (121)	0.81 (7)
CSU Offense	13	55% (30)	43% (80)	33.4	161.8	4.9	19 (73)	.03 (115)	2.88 (96)	55% (133)	9% (46)	0.92 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Offense	13	57% (21)	41% (76)	23	33.1	242.1	7.3	10.5	20 (58)	14 (115)	.21 (89)	1.6 (65)	33% (95)	28% (103)	.24 (100)	6% (64)	2.1 (63)
CSU Defense	13	51% (85)	43% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.22 (59)	1.4 (16)	30% (105)	30% (64)	.27 (49)	8% (22)	1.9 (35)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FRES Defense	13	51% (86)	38% (33)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.09 (14)	1.5 (34)	30% (94)	29% (37)	.2 (28)	6% (65)	2 (52)
CSU Offense	13	45% (102)	41% (81)	16.2	26.4	191.8	7.3	11.8	15 (98)	8 (40)	.31 (43)	1.7 (25)	32% (75)	34% (37)	.42 (33)	7% (98)	2 (92)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -9.85 #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 5.63 #117
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 15.48 #84
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #66
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -9.85 Colorado State: -10.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 1.8 Colorado State: -15.6

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -10.895 #106
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 11.48 #77
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 22.67 #126
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00 #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6 #124
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.6 #120
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #105

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 27
Colorado State 20

Projected Total Points: 48

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/10	Colorado State	49	Fresno State	21	Fresno State -5.5	Colorado State	47.5	Over
2024	11/23	Fresno State	28	Colorado State	22	Fresno State -3.5	Fresno State	43.5	Over
2020	10/29	Fresno State	38	Colorado State	17	Colorado State -2.5	Fresno State	58.0	Under
2019	10/26	Fresno State	31	Colorado State	41	Fresno State -13.5	Colorado State	57.0	Over
2016	11/05	Colorado State	37	Fresno State	0	Colorado State -13	Colorado State	58.5	Under
2015	11/28	Fresno State	31	Colorado State	34	Colorado State -8.5	Fresno State	60.5	Over
2012	10/06	Colorado State	7	Fresno State	28
2008	12/20	Fresno State	35	Colorado State	40
2006	09/30	Fresno State	23	Colorado State	35
2003	10/04	Colorado State	34	Fresno State	10
2002	10/04	Fresno State	32	Colorado State	30
2001	10/13	Colorado State	22	Fresno State	25

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado State	7	3	4 Overs
Fresno State	5	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 6	5 - 1	2 - 1	3 - 0
Road Teams	6 - 6	1 - 5	0 - 3	1 - 2

(#102) FRES at (#106) CSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FRES	CSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#102	#106
SP+SP+	#66	#124
Perf GradeGrade	#61	#135
OffenseOff	#64	#124
DefenseDef	#68	#135
Spec TeamsST	#26	#132
TalentTal	#80	#87
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#101

Fresno State Notes(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report

Colorado State Notes(11/26) Hiring Jim Mora (UConn). Big for move to new Pac12
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
Colorado State Injury Report

Fresno State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	CSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#64	#135
SuccessSuc	#110	#78
ExplosiveExp	#38	#49
PPAPPA	#110	#61
PowerPwr	#117	#126
SP+SP+	#100	#105
Pts POPPO	#91	#88
HavocHav	#34	#59

Fresno State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#44	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	#121	#59
Run ExplRExp	#76	#88
PPAExp	#111	#55
Run BlockR Blk	#45	-
OL YdsOLY	#115	#70
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#93
TackleTak	-	#61

Fresno State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#85	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	#76	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#65	#16
PPAExp	#89	#59
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#22	#135
F7 HavocF7	#34	#91
DB HavocDB	#64	#22

Colorado State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	FRES Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#124	#68
SuccessSuc	#76	#51
ExplosiveExp	#85	#13
PPAPPA	#90	#17
PowerPwr	#77	#84
SP+SP+	#120	#37
Pts POPPO	#98	#47
HavocHav	#59	#113

Colorado State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#97	#99
Run SuccessRSuc	#80	#74
Run ExplRExp	#87	#7
PPAExp	#115	#48
Run BlockR Blk	#71	-
OL YdsOLY	#96	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#112	#65
TackleTak	-	#76

Colorado State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	CSU Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#27
Pass SuccessPSuc	#81	#33
Pass ExplPExl	#25	#34
PPAExp	#43	#14
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#124	#78
F7 HavocF7	#46	#121
DB HavocDB	#98	#65

Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Fresno State 5.5 (47.5)
Colorado State won vs Fresno State this year (49-21)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Fresno State last year (49-21)
Fresno State beat Colorado State in 2024 (28-22)

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)	192	277	69%	2030	13	11	7.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)	47	96	49%	354	1	2	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	110	699	6	6.4	69
Bryson Donelson	142	583	5	4.1	57
Brandon Ramirez	60	271	3	4.5	19
Johnathan Arceneaux	40	267	2	6.7	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josiah Freeman	52	642	6	12.3	51
Richie Anderson	31	300	3	9.7	25
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)	28	255	0	9.1	41
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	36	228	2	6.3	23

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)	96	6	0	1	3
Simeon Harris (Tr)	53	7	1	0	5
Camryn Bracha	52	3	0	0	4
Finn Claypool (Tr)	41	11	7	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Finn Claypool (Tr)	41	11	7	4	1
Korey Foreman	19	6	4	2	2
Jahzon Jacks	32	7	4	3	0
Deijon Laffitte	27	5	3	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jakari Embry	26	0	0	7
Simeon Harris (Tr)	53	7	1	5
Ryan Wilson	25	2	1	4

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jackson Brousseau	128	201	64%	1354	9	3	6.7
Darius Curry	70	107	65%	740	5	7	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Dupree	102	508	2	5.0	31
Lloyd Avant (Tr)	90	417	5	4.6	23
Justin Marshall	49	260	1	5.3	73
Javion Kinnard	12	56	0	4.7	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rocky Beers (Tr)	31	388	7	12.5	48
Tommy Maher	32	358	0	11.2	35
Tay Lanier	35	315	2	9.0	39
Armani Winfield	22	276	2	12.5	49

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Owen Long	148	5	2	0	5
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)	72	5	1	1	1
Jace Bellah	58	1	0	2	0
Lemondre Joe (Tr)	56	5	4	4	13

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)	56	5	4	4	13
Owen Long	148	5	2	0	5
Jeremy Naborne	35	4	2	2	0
Paul Tangelo (Tr)	19	3	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)	56	5	4	4	13
Jahari Rogers (Tr)	31	4	1	1	8
Owen Long	148	5	2	0	5