Fresno State at Colorado State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at Colorado State RamsColorado State logo
Friday, October 10th 2025 (9:00 PM EDT)
Fresno State -5.5 (47.5) (-205)  Open: -7.0
Colorado State 49 - Fresno State: 21  (Mountain West)

 
Bulldogs (8 - 4) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 20 (26 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
CSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -7  (SP+ FRES -16.5)

Projected Score: FRES: 27 - CSU: 20 (47)
FRES Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
FRES Travel: 831 miles, 1 hrs behind
Rams (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Tyson Summers (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 31 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
 
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.547.5W 23 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 20 - 17UN
Fri 10/10 Fresno State at Colorado State-5.547.5L 21 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State+3.046.5L 0 - 23UN
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+17.547.5W 30 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-3.040.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-1.550.5L 17 - 28UN
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-3.546.0W 41 - 14OY
Sat 12/27 Fresno State vs Miami (OH)-3.542.0

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Colorado State at Washington+20.552.5L 21 - 38OY
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-35.052.5W 21 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+4.558.5L 16 - 17UY
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-4.548.5L 3 - 20UN
Fri 10/3 Colorado State at San Diego State+4.540.5L 24 - 45ON
Fri 10/10 Colorado State vs Fresno State+5.547.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-2.553.5L 19 - 31UN
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming+5.546.5L 0 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+5.560.5L 10 - 42UN
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico+15.553.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+17.546.5L 21 - 49ON
Fri 11/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+2.547.5L 21 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#107 (.1)39% (110)26.438% (118)2.76 (105)17041% (79)1803.35 (104)#51 (.12)39% (40)20.143% (72)36% (21)3.48 (56)59.81.72
CSU#94 (.13)40% (97)18.544% (66)2.97 (64)10838% (110)2163.52 (89)#113 (.24)45% (118)30.846% (108)46% (116)4.03 (101)56.31.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1226.426.338.8%3.351.7193511701804.751%46%38%41%16%.1
CSU Defense1230.827.145.3%4.031.3 - - - - - 57%42%46%46%13%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1220.124.839.4%3.482 - - - - - 50%49%43%36%17%.12
CSU Offense1218.519.940.3%3.521.7183241082163.645%54%44%38%19%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1231:471936%40%6.559.81.725.31.8333.7
Colorado State1226:5018.333%47%5.856.31.71.33.81.3126
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1251% (52)38% (118)36.1170.24.722 (49).02 (117)2.76 (105)74% (60)10% (101)1.04 (43)
CSU Defense1257% (131)46% (108) - - - - .17 (104)3.26 (123)77% (108)7% (128)0.94 (61)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1250% (59)43% (72) - - - - .09 (64)2.94 (79)74% (93)10% (68)0.85 (18)
CSU Offense1245% (107)44% (66)30.3108.33.613 (70).09 (77)2.97 (64)59% (131)12% (122)0.9 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1246% (89)41% (79)18.729.3180.46.29.713 (75)13 (127).24 (75)1.5 (79)33% (105)30% (74).3 (72)6% (53)2 (83)
CSU Defense1242% (7)46% (116) - - - - - - 8 (31).38 (119)1.7 (123)27% (129)35% (125).34 (92)6% (60)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1249% (76)36% (21) - - - - - - 19 (12).17 (36)1.6 (91)33% (41)28% (46).19 (27)8% (14)1.8 (13)
CSU Offense1254% (29)38% (110)20.332.8215.96.610.715 (103)12 (7).2 (96)1.5 (90)35% (128)28% (88).25 (91)7% (111)2 (86)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -8.69  #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 0.27  #127
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 8.96  #73
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00  #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1  #67
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #96
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.5  #43

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -8.69   Colorado State: -10.84

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: 1.1   Colorado State: -15.6




Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -10.84  #113
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 5.98  #85
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 17.06  #118
2025 Talent Rating: 628.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.6  #125
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #121
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3  #106

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 20.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 27
Colorado State 20


Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Fresno State 27
Colorado State 18

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 28
Colorado State 21

Total Points: 49
Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 18.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.9
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.1

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/10Colorado State49Fresno State21Fresno State -5.5Colorado State47.5Over
202411/23Fresno State28Colorado State22Fresno State -3.5Fresno State43.5Over
202010/29Fresno State38Colorado State17Colorado State -2.5Fresno State58.0Under
201910/26Fresno State31Colorado State41Fresno State -13.5Colorado State57.0Over
201611/05Colorado State37Fresno State0Colorado State -13Colorado State58.5Under
201511/28Fresno State31Colorado State34Colorado State -8.5Fresno State60.5Over
201210/06Colorado State7Fresno State28
200812/20Fresno State35Colorado State40
200609/30Fresno State23Colorado State35
200310/04Colorado State34Fresno State10
200210/04Fresno State32Colorado State30
200110/13Colorado State22Fresno State25
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado State734 Overs
Fresno State532 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 65 - 12 - 13 - 0
Road Teams6 - 61 - 50 - 31 - 2

(#102) FRES at (#113) CSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFRESCSU
Power RatePwr #102 #113
SP+SP+ #67 #125
Perf GradeGrade #65 #135
OffenseOff #72 #124
DefenseDef #66 #136
Spec TeamsST #31 #130
TalentTal #80 #87
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
Fresno State Notes
(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report
Colorado State Notes
(11/26) Hiring Jim Mora (UConn). Big for move to new Pac12
(10/22) Former QB1 Fowler-Nicolosi left CSU, portal bound
(10/19) Norvell fired, DC Tyson Summers interim
(10/4) Def suddenly torched by SDSU? Team is a tire fire
(10/2) TE1 Jaxxon Warren out vs SDSU game (in boot)
(10/2) Changing playcallers, Matt Mumme (PGC) now
(9/24) QB Brousseau much better option, good vs UTSA
(9/24) Norvell lost CSU game, pass by QB3 for 2 pts?
(9/21) QB Fowler-Nicolosi cannot play, Off a CFB worst
(9/8) 10 flags and 5 TOs nearly cost vs FCS N. Col
(8/31) #'s vs Wash were bad, but hung in. No change
(8/1) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG. Depth is a mystery
Colorado State Injury Report
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffCSU Def
Perf GradePerf #72 #136
SuccessSuc #110 #118
ExplosiveExp #49 #78
PPAPPA #107 #113
PowerPwr #127 #118
SP+SP+ #96 #106
Pts POPPO #104 #101
HavocHav #74 #114
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffCSU Def
Run GameRun #34 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #108
Run ExplRExp #43 #61
PPAExp #117 #104
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #105 #123
Stuff RateStuff #103 #121
TackleTak -  #66
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffCSU Def
Pass GamePass #91 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #79 #116
Pass ExplPExl #79 #123
PPAExp #75 #119
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #21 #135
F7 HavocF7 #101 #128
DB HavocDB #53 #60
Colorado State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatCSU OffFRES Def
Perf GradePerf #124 #66
SuccessSuc #97 #40
ExplosiveExp #98 #42
PPAPPA #94 #51
PowerPwr #85 #73
SP+SP+ #121 #43
Pts POPPO #89 #56
HavocHav #125 #33
Colorado State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
CSU OffFRES Def
Run GameRun #89 #114
Run SuccessRSuc #66 #72
Run ExplRExp #91 #18
PPAExp #77 #64
Run BlockR Blk #78 -
OL YdsOLY #64 #79
Stuff RateStuff #76 #38
TackleTak -  #98
Colorado State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatCSU OffFRES Def
Pass GamePass #124 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #110 #21
Pass ExplPExl #90 #91
PPAExp #96 #36
Pass Block/RushP Blk #118 #62
F7 HavocF7 #122 #68
DB HavocDB #111 #14
Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
Fresno State 5.5 (47.5)
Colorado State won vs Fresno State this year (49-21)

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Colorado State last year (28-22)

  
FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)17725569%181112117.1
Carson Conklin (Tr)479649%354123.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)10668566.569
Bryson Donelson13656354.157
Johnathan Arceneaux3424127.158
Brandon Ramirez4921834.419
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman45499611.137
Richie Anderson2927329.424
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622826.323
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)2522609.041

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)896013
Simeon Harris (Tr)487104
Camryn Bracha453001
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)4111741
Korey Foreman196422
Jahzon Jacks286330
Deijon Laffitte275303
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry240007
Simeon Harris (Tr)487104
Alzillion Hamilton332014

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Brousseau12820164%1354936.7
Darius Curry7010765%740576.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Dupree10250825.031
Lloyd Avant (Tr)9041754.623
Justin Marshall4926015.373
Javion Kinnard125604.721
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rocky Beers (Tr)31388712.548
Tommy Maher32358011.235
Tay Lanier3531529.039
Armani Winfield22276212.549

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Tyson Summers (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long1485205
Jake Jarmolowich (Tr)725111
Jace Bellah581020
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Owen Long1485205
Jeremy Naborne354220
Paul Tangelo (Tr)193241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lemondre Joe (Tr)5654413
Jahari Rogers (Tr)314118
Owen Long1485205