Fresno State at Colorado State Game Matchup
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at Colorado State RamsColorado State logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Canvas Stadium - Fort Collins, CO  (Mountain West)

 
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (21 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#65)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
CSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Fresno State -1   (SP+ FRES -2)
Projected Score: FRES: 26 - CSU: 25 (51)
FRES Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
FRES Travel: 831 miles, 1 hrs behind
Rams (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (16 - 20)
Avg Score : 24 - 26 (27 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#78)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/22 Fresno State at Kansas+14.50.0
Fri 8/29 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-1.50.0
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+5.5
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-17
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-13.5
Sat 10/11 Fresno State at Colorado State-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State-8.5
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+18.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-9.5
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-12
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State+4

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Colorado State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Colorado State at Washington+18.50.0
Sat 9/6 Colorado State vs Northern Colorado-14
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Colorado State vs UTSA+8
Sat 9/27 Colorado State vs Washington State-3
Sat 10/4 Colorado State at San Diego State-0
Sat 10/11 Colorado State vs Fresno State+1
Sat 10/18 Colorado State vs Hawai'i-4
Sat 10/25 Colorado State at Wyoming-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Colorado State vs UNLV+2
Sat 11/15 Colorado State at New Mexico-4
Sat 11/22 Colorado State at Boise State+21.5
Sat 11/29 Colorado State vs Air Force-4.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)26.138% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)24.843% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)24.443% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)25.842% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1326.121.239.2%3.681.3193431012423.442%57%38%41%14%.11
CSU Defense1325.819.942.4%41.5 - - - - - 49%51%42%43%17%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1324.831.240.3%3.631.5 - - - - - 49%51%43%38%14%.08
CSU Offense1324.426.942.2%3.561.2163541621924.955%45%43%41%15%.16

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1327:2918.939%42%6.2551.31.54.41.5230.7
Colorado State1328:4416.535%64%5.847.31.21.54.21.1227.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1342% (115)38% (121)29.2100.73.421 (59).04 (111)2.73 (115)69% (96)8% (34)0.95 (76)
CSU Defense1349% (51)42% (59) - - - - .1 (55)3.01 (70)69% (45)9% (91)1.02 (88)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1349% (49)43% (74) - - - - .08 (48)2.94 (56)71% (56)8% (121)0.81 (7)
CSU Offense1355% (30)43% (80)33.4161.84.919 (73).03 (115)2.88 (96)55% (133)9% (46)0.92 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1357% (21)41% (76)2333.1242.17.310.520 (58)14 (115).21 (89)1.6 (65)33% (95)28% (103).24 (100)6% (64)2.1 (63)
CSU Defense1351% (85)43% (94) - - - - - - 10 (66).22 (59)1.4 (16)30% (105)30% (64).27 (49)8% (22)1.9 (35)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1351% (86)38% (33) - - - - - - 15 (18).09 (14)1.5 (34)30% (94)29% (37).2 (28)6% (65)2 (52)
CSU Offense1345% (102)41% (81)16.226.4191.87.311.815 (98)8 (40).31 (43)1.7 (25)32% (75)34% (37).42 (33)7% (98)2 (92)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -6.32 #85
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 8.21 #102
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 14.53 #65
2025 Talent Rating: 708.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #82
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.2 #88
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 506.67
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -6.32   Colorado State: -7.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -6.2   Colorado State: -8.3




Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -7.2 #96
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 11.27 #86
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 22.37 #106
2025 Talent Rating: 534.00 #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Colorado State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Colorado State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #97
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #95
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #98

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 506.67
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.2
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 26
Colorado State 25

Projected Total Points: 51
Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 24.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.9
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.9

Colorado State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Fresno State28Colorado State22Fresno StateFresno State -3.5Fresno State43.5Over
202010/29Fresno State38Colorado State17Fresno StateColorado State -2.5Fresno State58.0Under
201910/26Fresno State31Colorado State41Colorado StateFresno State -13.5Colorado State57.0Over
201611/05Colorado State37Fresno State0Colorado StateColorado State -13Colorado State58.5Under
201511/28Fresno State31Colorado State34Colorado StateColorado State -8.5Fresno State60.5Over
201210/06Colorado State7Fresno State28Fresno State
200812/20Fresno State35Colorado State40Colorado State
200609/30Fresno State23Colorado State35Colorado State
200310/04Colorado State34Fresno State10Colorado State
200210/04Fresno State32Colorado State30Fresno State
200110/13Colorado State22Fresno State25Fresno State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado State623 Overs
Fresno State532 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 64 - 12 - 12 - 0
Road Teams6 - 51 - 40 - 21 - 2

(#85) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -6.32 #85
Offense Rating: 8.21 #102
Defense Rating: 14.53 #65
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.2 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #77
Talent Rating: 708.00 #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #82
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Fresno State Notes
(5/12) Fresno will be physical, biggest spring takeaway
(5/11) HC Entz was great at N Dak St (60-11)
(5/11) OC Davis runs combo spread & RPO, QB run
(5/11) Pass D good LY & DBs return some good parts
(5/11) QB1 Warner out of spring, Conklin signed after
(5/11) Final MWC season, join new Pac 12 in '26
(4/30) Portal QB Conklin (Sac St) big portal add
(4/30) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 9 portals, 4 DL help
(4/30) OL returns 4/5, meh LY but could grow up big
(4/7) RB staff high on Donelson. Ramirez can play
Fresno State     Ratings Matchup     Colorado State
Power #85
#96
Off #102
#86
Def #65
#106
Talent #71
#102
SP+ #88
#97
SP+ Off #98
#95
SP+ Def #77
#98

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Colorado State last year (28-22)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FRES | CSU
Depth Chart: FRES | CSU
Rosters: FRES | CSU
(#96) Colorado State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.2 #96
Offense Rating: 11.27 #86
Defense Rating: 22.37 #106
Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #97
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #98
Talent Rating: 534.00 #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #99
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.56 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Colorado State Notes
(4/29) WR rebuild, so far not much here. TE decent
(3/24) QB F-Nicolosi exp'd, JAG+. Depth inexp'd
(3/24) RB Marshall good #2 LY. Depth looks v light
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, decent LY. No portal adds
(3/24) Def bad LY, replacing a ton. 8 portal adds
(3/24) New DC Summers from WKU (DC), HC exp


  
Fresno State's OC Josh Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)27143862%271017136.2
Carson Conklin (Tr)25540663%27592786.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson7847236.143
Elijah Gilliam12146683.924
Johnathan Arceneaux2210404.720
Nathan Acevedo21809.010
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Gilliam3220406.471
Richie Anderson1714708.618
Josiah Freeman895211.934
Bryson Donelson219414.514

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Nick Benedetto
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jayden Davis461002
Jadon Pearson (Tr)423012
Kosi Agina382001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Foreman235241
Sione Noa153230
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
K'Vion Thunderbird (Tr)41100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jadon Pearson (Tr)423012
Jayden Davis461002

Colorado State's OC Matt Mumme
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi22737461%27551487.4
Jackson Brousseau3650%15012.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Justin Marshall15676744.942
Lloyd Avant (Tr)7625913.416
Keegan Holles159716.518
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi438041.923
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Armani Winfield3834129.062
Petey Tucker (Tr)30324010.829
Jordan Ross15218114.536
Tommy Maher499124.853

View Colorado State's Full Roster
Colorado State's DC Tyson Summers
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Owen Long441002
Jacob Ellis (Tr)415120
Ayden Hector405206
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji356351
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji356351
Ayden Hector405206
Kennedy McDowell82220
Jacob Ellis (Tr)415120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ayden Hector405206
Dylan Phelps240004
Jahari Rogers (Tr)30003