Fresno State at Boise State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Fresno State logo Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State BroncosBoise State logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID  (Boise 7th straight game)

 
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (21 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#65)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
BSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -19   (SP+ BSU -15)
Projected Score: FRES: 19 - BSU: 38 (55)
BSU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
FRES Travel: 505 miles, 1 hrs behind
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (15 - 2)
Avg Score : 37 - 23 (43 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.4 - 1.6 (#6)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.055.5
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+6
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-16.5
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-2
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-13
Sat 10/11 Fresno State at Colorado State-0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State-8
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-9
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-11.5
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State+4.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Boise State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Boise State at South Florida-9.063.5
Sat 9/6 Boise State vs Eastern Washington-33
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Boise State at Air Force-20
Sat 9/27 Boise State vs App State-26
Sat 10/4 Boise State at Notre Dame+19
Sat 10/11 Boise State vs New Mexico-28.5
Sat 10/18 Boise State vs UNLV-17
Sat 10/25 Boise State at Nevada-24.5
Sat 11/1 Boise State vs Fresno State-19
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Boise State at San Diego State-19.5
Sat 11/22 Boise State vs Colorado State-21.5
Sat 11/29 Boise State at Utah State-23

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)26.138% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)24.843% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
BSU#3 (.36)48% (12)37.349% (17)3.22 (39)23448% (12)2044.83 (4)#59 (.16)38% (27)22.639% (33)37% (29)3.33 (24)39.80.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Offense1326.121.239.2%3.681.3193431012423.442%57%38%41%14%.11
BSU Defense1422.619.738.2%3.331.1 - - - - - 43%57%39%37%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FRES Defense1324.831.240.3%3.631.5 - - - - - 49%51%43%38%14%.08
BSU Offense1437.343.148.3%4.830.6224372342046.555%44%49%48%12%.36

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Fresno State1327:2918.939%42%6.2551.31.54.41.5230.7
Boise State1429:2521.649%71%4.539.80.61.17.43.6330.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Offense1342% (115)38% (121)29.2100.73.421 (59).04 (111)2.73 (115)69% (96)8% (34)0.95 (76)
BSU Defense1443% (3)39% (33) - - - - .13 (72)2.8 (34)62% (12)15% (3)1.1 (113)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FRES Defense1349% (49)43% (74) - - - - .08 (48)2.94 (56)71% (56)8% (121)0.81 (7)
BSU Offense1455% (31)49% (17)36.2233.56.542 (3).32 (6)3.22 (39)86% (3)7% (10)1.22 (5)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Offense1357% (21)41% (76)2333.1242.17.310.520 (58)14 (115).21 (89)1.6 (65)33% (95)28% (103).24 (100)6% (64)2.1 (63)
BSU Defense1457% (133)37% (29) - - - - - - 7 (104).18 (42)1.7 (96)36% (10)30% (62).41 (105)6% (83)2.3 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FRES Defense1351% (86)38% (33) - - - - - - 15 (18).09 (14)1.5 (34)30% (94)29% (37).2 (28)6% (65)2 (52)
BSU Offense1444% (103)48% (12)1727.1203.97.51222 (46)4 (1).41 (12)1.5 (119)29% (23)35% (28).37 (55)6% (58)1.9 (111)

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -7.58 #86
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 7.58 #106
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 15.16 #70
2025 Talent Rating: 678.00 #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.2 #88
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53

Power Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -7.58   Boise State: 11.99

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Fresno State: -6.2   Boise State: 9.2




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 11.99 #37
Boise State's Offense Rating: 22.10 #24
Boise State's Defense Rating: 12.32 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 712.00 #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #80
Boise State's 2025 Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6
Boise State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5 #15
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #53

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 499.83
Average Power Five Talent: 859.76
Average FBS Talent: 682.53


Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.2
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.2

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 38
Fresno State 19

Projected Total Points: 55
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 37.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.7

Boise State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/04Fresno State37Boise State30Fresno StateFresno State -2.5Fresno State53.5Over
202210/08Boise State40Fresno State20Boise StateBoise State -9Boise State45.0Over
202212/03Boise State16Fresno State28Fresno StateBoise State -3Fresno State54.5Under
202111/06Fresno State14Boise State40Boise StateFresno State -4Boise State61.5Under
201811/09Boise State24Fresno State17Boise StateFresno State -2.5Boise State56.0Under
201812/01Boise State16Fresno State19Fresno StateBoise State -2Fresno State51.5Under
201712/02Boise State17Fresno State14Boise StateBoise State -9.5Fresno State51.0Under
201711/25Fresno State28Boise State17Fresno StateBoise State -6.5Fresno State49.0Under
201410/17Boise State37Fresno State27Boise StateBoise State -16Fresno State0
201412/06Boise State28Fresno State14Boise StateBoise State -17Fresno State0
201309/20Fresno State41Boise State40Fresno StateFresno State -3Boise State0
201210/13Boise State20Fresno State10Boise State
201110/07Fresno State7Boise State57Boise State
201011/19Boise State51Fresno State0Boise State
200909/18Fresno State34Boise State51Boise State
200811/28Boise State61Fresno State10Boise State
200710/26Fresno State21Boise State34Boise State
200611/01Boise State45Fresno State21Boise State
200511/10Fresno State27Boise State7Fresno State
200410/23Boise State33Fresno State16Boise State
200311/21Fresno State17Boise State31Boise State
200210/18Boise State67Fresno State21Boise State
200110/19Fresno State30Boise State35Boise State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State1742 Overs
Fresno State676 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 84 - 72 - 72 - 0
Road Teams8 - 157 - 40 - 27 - 2

(#86) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -7.58 #86
Offense Rating: 7.58 #106
Defense Rating: 15.16 #70
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.2 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #98
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #77
Talent Rating: 678.00 #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Fresno State Notes
(6/3) DE Foreman good, CB Hamilton is a great one
(5/23) DC Benedetto was great at NIU past 3 years
(5/12) Fresno will be physical, biggest spring takeaway
(5/11) HC Entz was great at N Dak St (60-11)
(5/11) OC Davis runs combo spread & RPO, QB run
(5/11) Pass D good LY & DBs return some good parts
(5/11) QB1 Warner out of spring, Conklin signed after
(5/11) Final MWC season, join new Pac 12 in '26
(4/30) Portal QB Conklin (Sac St) big portal add
(4/30) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 9 portals, 4 DL help
Fresno State     Ratings Matchup     Boise State
Power #86
#37
Off #106
#24
Def #70
#56
Talent #74
#68
SP+ #88
#33
SP+ Off #98
#15
SP+ Def #77
#53

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Boise State in 2023 (37-30)
Fresno State beat Boise State in 2022 (28-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: FRES | BSU
Depth Chart: FRES | BSU
Rosters: FRES | BSU
(#37) Boise State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 11.99 #37
Offense Rating: 22.10 #24
Defense Rating: 12.32 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.5 #15
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #53
Talent Rating: 712.00 #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #80
Expected Record: 10.4 - 1.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.83 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Boise State Notes
(5/26) #2 WR Austin Bolt no longer with program
(5/8) QB Madsen is back, 3K yds. How good is he?
(5/2) TE Matt Lauter a G5 best. Good hands, YAC.
(3/22) RB rebuild. Sherrod (Fres), Dunbar, Gaines
(3/22) WR lost #1. Lots of Sr's. TE Lauter a weapon
(3/22) OL 4/5 back, 4 more w/ exp. Best G5 OL
(3/22) Def OK LY, returns a lot. 4 DL portals, 2 DBs
(3/22) DE Vergin-Morgan, CB McCoy, S Benefield good
(3/22) OC Potter promoted after Koetter retired
(3/22) HC Danielson lost 1 game outside of bowls


  
Fresno State's OC Josh Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)27143862%271017136.2
Carson Conklin (Tr)25540663%27592786.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson7847236.143
Elijah Gilliam12146683.924
Johnathan Arceneaux2210404.720
Rayshon Luke (Tr)41303.312
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Gilliam3220406.471
Richie Anderson1714708.618
Josiah Freeman895211.934
Bryson Donelson219414.514

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Nick Benedetto
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jayden Davis461002
Jadon Pearson (Tr)423012
Kosi Agina382001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Foreman235241
Sione Noa153230
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jairus Satele51100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Jadon Pearson (Tr)423012
Jayden Davis461002

Boise State's OC Nate Potter
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen24739662%30182367.6
Max Cutforth22100%13006.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Maddux Madsen5722153.949
Malik Sherrod (Tr)6019643.348
Sire Gaines2015617.838
Dylan Riley2213526.164
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matt Lauter48629713.153
Latrell Caples38473512.436
Austin Bolt16196412.344
Chase Penry14164011.742

View Boise State's Full Roster
Boise State's DC Erik Chinander
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Benefield825013
Zion Washington674006
A'Marion McCoy6020112
Marco Notarainni608433
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin40161050
Braxton Fely249610
Marco Notarainni608433
Max Stege145300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A'Marion McCoy6020112
Jeremiah Earby341006
Zion Washington674006