Miami (OH) at Buffalo - 2025 Matchup Preview
Miami (OH) logo Miami (OH) RedHawks at Buffalo BullsBuffalo logo
Wednesday, November 19th 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
Miami (OH) -2.5 (38.5) (-130)  Open: -2.5
Miami (OH) 37 - Buffalo: 20  (Mid-American)

 
RedHawks (7 - 7) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (64 - 67)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (20 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 6.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Buffalo -1.5  (SP+ M-OH -4)
Projected Score: M-OH: 20 - BUFF: 22 (42)
M-OH Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
M-OH Travel: 392 miles
Bulls (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Pete Lembo (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Miami (OH) at Wisconsin+17.540.5L 0 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Miami (OH) at Rutgers+15.545.5L 17 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Miami (OH) vs UNLV+2.549.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 9/27 Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood-22.549.5W 38 - 0UY
Sat 10/4 Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois-4.538.5W 25 - 14OY
Sat 10/11 Miami (OH) at Akron-11.547.5W 20 - 7UY
Sat 10/18 Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan-12.547.5W 44 - 30OY
Sat 10/25 Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-2.540.5W 26 - 17OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4 Miami (OH) at Ohio+2.550.5L 20 - 24UN
Wed 11/12 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+6.544.5L 3 - 24UN
Wed 11/19 Miami (OH) at Buffalo-2.538.5W 37 - 20OY
Sat 11/29 Miami (OH) vs Ball State-16.540.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 12/6 Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan+2.544.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 12/27 Miami (OH) vs Fresno State+5.041.0L 3 - 18UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Buffalo at Minnesota+16.545.5L 10 - 23UY
Sat 9/6 Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-37.048.0W 45 - 6OY
Sat 9/13 Buffalo at Kent State-23.548.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/20 Buffalo vs Troy-5.543.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 9/27 Buffalo vs UConn+3.051.5L 17 - 20UY
Sat 10/4 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-9.553.5W 31 - 30ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Buffalo at Massachusetts-16.547.5W 28 - 21ON
Sat 10/25 Buffalo vs Akron-10.048.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Buffalo at Bowling Green+2.544.5W 28 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Buffalo at Central Michigan+2.544.5L 19 - 38ON
Wed 11/19 Buffalo vs Miami (OH)+2.538.5L 20 - 37ON
Fri 11/28 Buffalo vs Ohio+7.044.5L 26 - 31OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 3

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH#95 (.15)41% (97)23.538% (119)3.1 (51)12144% (48)2043.43 (108)#38 (.12)44% (92)21.746% (100)42% (74)2.91 (6)38.61.11.4
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)2438% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)23.543% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Offense1423.519.840.7%3.431.1163251212044.545%55%38%44%18%.15
BUFF Defense1323.524.142.8%3.841.5 - - - - - 46%53%43%43%18%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Defense1421.721.243.6%2.911.4 - - - - - 47%52%46%42%18%.12
BUFF Offense132424.639.6%4.221173291531764.255%45%38%42%17%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami (OH)1427:0715.533%40%4.838.61.11.44.92.1039.1
Buffalo1326:2017.234%52%439.311.56.32.2231.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense1445% (108)38% (119)26.6120.54.59 (125).1 (90)3.1 (51)69% (98)11% (86)0.96 (70)
BUFF Defense1346% (21)43% (71) - - - - .08 (47)3.01 (68)63% (16)12% (35)0.94 (45)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense1447% (36)46% (100) - - - - .13 (74)3.24 (102)68% (38)10% (67)0.88 (21)
BUFF Offense1355% (36)38% (115)36.2153.34.223 (52).08 (96)2.7 (117)61% (122)10% (84)1.11 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense1455% (28)44% (48)15.126.6204.37.713.523 (41)12 (85).22 (87)1.5 (90)33% (99)30% (83).27 (90)7% (111)2 (81)
BUFF Defense1353% (109)43% (97) - - - - - - 12 (39).28 (91)1.7 (97)32% (58)29% (40).18 (18)7% (38)2.2 (100)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense1452% (102)42% (74) - - - - - - 11 (52).11 (18)1.2 (1)30% (99)30% (61).17 (14)8% (7)1.6 (4)
BUFF Offense1345% (99)42% (70)14.225.2175.8712.419 (65)6 (10).29 (47)1.5 (80)33% (97)31% (75).34 (66)6% (89)1.9 (106)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -10.70  #104
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 3.65  #123
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 14.35  #72
2025 Talent Rating: 674.00  #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 6.5
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #82
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3  #114
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #54

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -10.70   Buffalo: -5.635

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -3.4   Buffalo: -7.5




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -5.635  #94
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 4.27  #120
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 13.04  #62
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #95
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2  #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 571
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.2

Miami (OH)'s 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 22
Miami (OH) 20

Projected Total Points: 42
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/19Buffalo20Miami (OH)37Miami (OH) -2.5Miami (OH)38.5Over
202311/15Miami (OH)23Buffalo10Miami (OH) -7.5Miami (OH)36.5Under
202210/01Buffalo24Miami (OH)20Buffalo -3Buffalo50.0Under
202111/09Miami (OH)45Buffalo18Miami (OH) -7Miami (OH)58.0Over
202011/10Buffalo42Miami (OH)10Buffalo -7.5Buffalo55.0Under
201909/28Miami (OH)34Buffalo20Buffalo -2.5Miami (OH)47.5Over
201810/30Buffalo51Miami (OH)42Buffalo -7Buffalo53.0Over
201710/21Miami (OH)24Buffalo14Miami (OH) -3Miami (OH)47.0Under
201611/12Buffalo24Miami (OH)35Miami (OH) -12Buffalo50.5Over
201510/29Miami (OH)24Buffalo29Buffalo -9.5Miami (OH)50.0Over
201409/27Buffalo35Miami (OH)27Buffalo -6.5Buffalo0
201311/19Miami (OH)7Buffalo44Buffalo -24Buffalo0
201211/03Buffalo27Miami (OH)24
201110/29Miami (OH)41Buffalo13
201010/30Buffalo9Miami (OH)21
200911/18Miami (OH)17Buffalo42
200811/04Buffalo37Miami (OH)17
200711/03Miami (OH)31Buffalo28
200610/14Buffalo31Miami (OH)38
200511/05Miami (OH)54Buffalo13
200410/16Buffalo7Miami (OH)25
200310/11Miami (OH)59Buffalo3
200210/19Buffalo0Miami (OH)49
200110/06Miami (OH)31Buffalo14
200011/17Buffalo16Miami (OH)17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo966 Overs
Miami (OH)1664 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 1010 - 27 - 03 - 2
Road Teams10 - 152 - 102 - 30 - 7

(#104) M-OH at (#94) BUFF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatM-OHBUFF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #104 #94
SP+SP+ #82 #95
Perf GradeGrade #59 #58
OffenseOff #86 #80
DefenseDef #35 #36
Spec TeamsST #61 #23
TalentTal #81 #109
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
Miami (OH) Notes
(11/29) Beat Ball St to make the MAC title game vs WMU
(11/20) QB Thomas Gotkowski better option in W vs Buff
(11/20) Beat Buff due to 3 TOs, even BS. Pass Def torched
(11/14) QB Dequan Finn quit the team.
(11/13) QB2 Hesson cannot play. 11/38 w/ 3 INT vs Tol
(11/4) Can't trust Dequan Finn. Will find a way to lose
(10/31) #2 Off in MAC, best OL, Avg DL, QB Finn meh
(10/31) 5-1 outside of paycheck games, L to UNLV by 3
(10/19) 3-0 in MAC play, undefeated after paycheck games
(10/19) Run heavy Off, QB Finn not good, Def inconsistent
(9/21) Nearly beat UNLV, OG'd 513-396. 1-8 on 3rd down
(8/30) Off awful vs Wisky, Finn cannot play? Def good
Miami (OH) Injury Report
Buffalo Notes
(11/20) Hard L vs M-OH. QB Roberson great, 3 TO's cost
(10/31) Avg OL/DL, QB Roberson OK but good mobility
(10/31) WR Snow best MAC weapon, RB Henderson good
(10/31) Bulls look like frauds, 4 W's vs truly awful teams
(10/31) Same staff, but regressing badly vs #135 SOS?
(9/20) Could have lost to Kent. Allowed 420+? Yikes
(9/20) Blew 17-0 4th Q lead vs Troy at home? Bad loss
(9/20) Off really bad, Def shockingly avg at best.
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
Buffalo Injury Report
Miami (OH) on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
M-OH OffBUFF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #86 #36
SuccessSuc #97 #82
ExplosiveExp #61 #97
PPAPPA #95 #72
PowerPwr #123 #62
SP+SP+ #114 #70
Pts POPPO #108 #74
HavocHav #107 #33
Miami (OH) Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
M-OH OffBUFF Def
Run GameRun #95 #42
Run SuccessRSuc #119 #71
Run ExplRExp #70 #45
PPAExp #90 #47
Run BlockR Blk #31 -
OL YdsOLY #51 #68
Stuff RateStuff #75 #64
TackleTak -  #13
Miami (OH) Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
M-OH OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePass #111 #87
Pass SuccessPSuc #48 #97
Pass ExplPExl #90 #97
PPAExp #87 #91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #133 #19
F7 HavocF7 #86 #35
DB HavocDB #111 #38
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatBUFF OffM-OH Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #80 #35
SuccessSuc #104 #92
ExplosiveExp #41 #2
PPAPPA #77 #38
PowerPwr #120 #72
SP+SP+ #118 #54
Pts POPPO #41 #6
HavocHav #91 #35
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffM-OH Def
Run GameRun #111 #60
Run SuccessRSuc #115 #100
Run ExplRExp #17 #21
PPAExp #96 #74
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLY #117 #102
Stuff RateStuff #96 #125
TackleTak -  #70
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatBUFF OffM-OH Def
Pass GamePass #116 #58
Pass SuccessPSuc #70 #74
Pass ExplPExl #80 #1
PPAExp #47 #18
Pass Block/RushP Blk #58 #11
F7 HavocF7 #84 #67
DB HavocDB #89 #7
Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 36°
Rematch from Week 13
Miami (OH) 2.5 (38.5)
Miami (OH) won at Buffalo this year (37-20)

Previous Matchups
Miami (OH) beat Buffalo last year (37-20)
Miami (OH) beat Buffalo in 2023 (23-10)

  
M-OH's OC Patrick Welsh (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn (Tr)10618159%1451968.0
Henry Hesson399840%596436.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Brunson16476744.760
Dequan Finn (Tr)8939544.439
D'Shawntae Jones6327774.446
Kenny Tracy4927215.621
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamryn Perry43976622.766
Cole Weaver45642114.336
Keith Reynolds (Tr)3635219.869
Deion Colzie (Tr)11178116.244

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Blakey1185138
Jackson Kuwatch10110511
Corban Hondru847372
Silas Walters713107
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adam Trick57128124
Jackson Kuwatch10110511
Nasir Washington176410
Bai Jobe (Tr)154440
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Blakey1185138
Silas Walters713107
Kaleb Martin310007

BUFF's OC Dave Patenaude (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)20635658%252017127.1
Gunnar Gray295355%228224.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson18275564.141
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
Lamar Sperling3923416.063
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)8312531.540
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nik McMillan61975316.055
Victor Snow62815813.175
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)36410311.439
Al-Jay Henderson2518117.222

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock14214511
Dion Crawford795431
Miles Greer (Tr)743313
Mitchell Gonser (Tr)706120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock14214511
Malin White559440
Junior Poyser305420
Dion Crawford795431
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Solomon Brown560005
Keontez Bradley (Tr)280004