Miami (OH) at Buffalo - 2025 Matchup Preview
Miami (OH) logo Miami (OH) RedHawks at Buffalo BullsBuffalo logo
Wednesday, November 19th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
UB Stadium - Amherst, NY  (Mid-American)

 
RedHawks (0 - 2) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (64 - 67)
Avg Score : 9 - 31 (9 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
Our Line: Buffalo -10   (SP+ BUFF -7)
Projected Score: M-OH: 18 - BUFF: 28 (45)
BUFF Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
M-OH Travel: 392 miles
Bulls (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 29 - 19 (45 - 6 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Miami (OH) at Wisconsin+17.540.5L 0 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Miami (OH) at Rutgers+15.545.5L 17 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Miami (OH) vs UNLV+2.548.5
Sat 9/27 Miami (OH) vs Lindenwood-11
Sat 10/4 Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois+8
Sat 10/11 Miami (OH) at Akron-4.5
Sat 10/18 Miami (OH) vs Eastern Michigan-8.5
Sat 10/25 Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan-7.5
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/4 Miami (OH) at Ohio+9
Wed 11/12 Miami (OH) vs Toledo+18
Wed 11/19 Miami (OH) at Buffalo+10
Sat 11/29 Miami (OH) vs Ball State-12

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Buffalo's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Buffalo at Minnesota+16.545.5L 10 - 23UY
Sat 9/6 Buffalo vs St. Francis (PA)-37.048.0W 45 - 6OY
Sat 9/13 Buffalo at Kent State-23.548.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 9/20 Buffalo vs Troy-6.042.5
Sat 9/27 Buffalo vs UConn+6
Sat 10/4 Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan-16
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Buffalo at Massachusetts-16.5
Sat 10/25 Buffalo vs Akron-17
Sat 11/1 Buffalo at Bowling Green-4
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/12 Buffalo at Central Michigan-14.5
Wed 11/19 Buffalo vs Miami (OH)-10
Fri 11/28 Buffalo vs Ohio-3.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH#117 (.07)35% (124)8.538% (104)3.12 (57)7634% (115)1673.4 (101)#104 (.2)51% (129)3151% (124)51% (122)4.43 (102)771.50.5
BUFF#73 (.19)41% (91)28.745% (62)3.02 (67)18635% (113)1864.58 (43)#79 (.15)40% (74)1934% (32)46% (105)2.3 (27)38.71.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH#95 (.15)41% (97)38% (119)3.1 (51)12144% (48)2043.43 (108)#38 (.12)44% (92)46% (100)42% (74)2.91 (6)38.61.11.4
BUFF#77 (.17)40% (104)38% (115)2.7 (117)15342% (70)1764.22 (41)#72 (.17)43% (82)43% (71)43% (97)3.84 (74)39.311.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Offense28.58.535.4%3.41.510243761673.443%56%38%34%17%.07
BUFF Defense319640.2%2.31 - - - - - 47%53%34%46%12%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Defense2313150.7%4.430.5 - - - - - 51%48%51%51%12%.2
BUFF Offense328.74540.8%4.581.3213721861864.860%39%45%35%11%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami (OH)220:501018%0%7.5771.50.54.53023.1
Buffalo327:0921.343%50%3.738.71.316.73032.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense243% (107)38% (104)2275.53.42 (109) (106)3.12 (57)40% (133)11% (103)0.81 (105)
BUFF Defense347% (53)34% (32) - - - - -.1 (20)2.93 (84)75% (80)7% (117)0.65 (9)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense251% (86)51% (124) - - - - .21 (109)3.55 (131)79% (105)6% (127)0.85 (48)
BUFF Offense360% (18)45% (62)38.7185.74.86 (49).17 (55)3.02 (67)83% (28)6% (23)0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense256% (31)34% (115)11.5201678.414.50 (133)3 (92).2 (93)1.8 (15)33% (95)23% (115).29 (79)6% (91)2.5 (13)
BUFF Defense353% (87)46% (105) - - - - - - 1 (87).38 (113)1.6 (90)34% (57)32% (85).27 (71)6% (76)1.6 (23)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense248% (51)51% (122) - - - - - - 1 (87).25 (81)1.3 (26)28% (116)42% (127).58 (121)6% (66)1.9 (64)
BUFF Offense339% (120)35% (113)1727.31866.810.95 (54)3 (92).28 (72)1.6 (48)29% (56)30% (81).25 (87)5% (63)1.4 (126)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: -12.19 #110
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 2.89 #115
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 15.08 #102
2025 Talent Rating: 674.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Miami (OH)'s 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #115
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 12.3 #136
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #58

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -12.19   Buffalo: -2.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -12.7   Buffalo: -5.5




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -2.33 #89
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 5.28 #102
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 9.44 #79
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Buffalo's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
Buffalo's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5 #89
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 567.54
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 8.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 8.5
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Miami (OH)'s 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 28
Miami (OH) 18


Total Points: 45

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 28.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 45
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 6

Buffalo's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/15Miami (OH)23Buffalo10Miami (OH)Miami (OH) -7.5Miami (OH)36.5Under
202210/01Buffalo24Miami (OH)20BuffaloBuffalo -3Buffalo50.0Under
202111/09Miami (OH)45Buffalo18Miami (OH)Miami (OH) -7Miami (OH)58.0Over
202011/10Buffalo42Miami (OH)10BuffaloBuffalo -7.5Buffalo55.0Under
201909/28Miami (OH)34Buffalo20Miami (OH)Buffalo -2.5Miami (OH)47.5Over
201810/30Buffalo51Miami (OH)42BuffaloBuffalo -7Buffalo53.0Over
201710/21Miami (OH)24Buffalo14Miami (OH)Miami (OH) -3Miami (OH)47.0Under
201611/12Buffalo24Miami (OH)35Miami (OH)Miami (OH) -12Buffalo50.5Over
201510/29Miami (OH)24Buffalo29BuffaloBuffalo -9.5Miami (OH)50.0Over
201409/27Buffalo35Miami (OH)27BuffaloBuffalo -6.5Buffalo0
201311/19Miami (OH)7Buffalo44BuffaloBuffalo -24Buffalo0
201211/03Buffalo27Miami (OH)24Buffalo
201110/29Miami (OH)41Buffalo13Miami (OH)
201010/30Buffalo9Miami (OH)21Miami (OH)
200911/18Miami (OH)17Buffalo42Buffalo
200811/04Buffalo37Miami (OH)17Buffalo
200711/03Miami (OH)31Buffalo28Miami (OH)
200610/14Buffalo31Miami (OH)38Miami (OH)
200511/05Miami (OH)54Buffalo13Miami (OH)
200410/16Buffalo7Miami (OH)25Miami (OH)
200310/11Miami (OH)59Buffalo3Miami (OH)
200210/19Buffalo0Miami (OH)49Miami (OH)
200110/06Miami (OH)31Buffalo14Miami (OH)
200011/17Buffalo16Miami (OH)17Miami (OH)
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo965 Overs
Miami (OH)1554 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 910 - 17 - 03 - 1
Road Teams9 - 151 - 101 - 30 - 7

(#110) Miami (OH) Info
Power Rating: -12.19 #110
Offense Rating: 2.89 #115
Defense Rating: 15.08 #102
Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #115
Offense SP+ Rating: 12.3 #136
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #58
Talent Rating: 674.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 43%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.4 PPO
Poor Run Success 38%
Awful Pass Success 34%
Awful OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Poor DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 51%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.43 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 51%
Awful Pass Def Success 51%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Miami (OH) has lost 10 straight
Miami (OH) has lost 5 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 2 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Miami (OH) Notes
(8/30) Off awful vs Wisky, Finn cannot play? Def good
(7/28) QB Finn + 5 P4 WRs + 3 P4 TEs could be great
(5/11) Least exp'd OL in CFB, and no exp'd portals
(3/26) RB rebuild, Brunson has exp. Some options
(3/26) WR complete rebuild. 5 P4 portal adds
(3/26) OL complete rebuild, 2 w/ lim exp, 3 portals
(3/26) Def good LY, replace a lot. Only 2 portals
(3/26) Martin & staff 20 W's past 2 years. Great job
(3/26) QB Finn was great in MAC, not at Baylor LY

Miami (OH) Highlights
Miami (OH) defense does not give up big plays (#25)

Miami (OH) Deficiencies
Miami (OH) has a really bad Offense
Miami (OH) Can Not Run the Ball (#135)
Miami (OH) offense is really bad (#124)
Miami (OH) offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#101)
Miami (OH) run game is really bad (#104)
Miami (OH) pass game is really bad (#115)
Miami (OH) offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Miami (OH) has a bad defense (#129)
Miami (OH) Does Not Stuff Runs (#126)
Miami (OH) has a bad defensive line (#131)
Miami (OH) has a bad red zone defense (#102)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBUFFM-OH
OverallOver#44#112
OffenseOff#43#104
DefenseDef#60#111
Special TeamsST#32#90
PassingPass#67#103
RushingRush#71#97
Run BlockRBLK#19#76
Pass BlockPBLK#30#117
Route RunningWR Rt#69#77
TacklingTkl#33#112
Run DefenseR Def#41#111
Pass Rush DefPRush#38#108
Coverage DefCov#88#114

Previous Matchups
Miami (OH) beat Buffalo in 2023 (23-10)
Buffalo beat Miami (OH) in 2022 (24-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: M-OH | BUFF
Depth Chart: M-OH | BUFF
Rosters: M-OH | BUFF
(#89) Buffalo Info
Power Rating: -2.33 #89
Offense Rating: 5.28 #102
Defense Rating: 9.44 #79
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5 #89
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #103
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 540.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 39%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.58 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 35%
Good OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Good in Scoring Position 2.3 PPO
Good Run Def Success 34%
Poor Pass Def Success 46%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Buffalo has lost 7 straight
Buffalo has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Buffalo Notes
(8/29) Def v good vs Minn, Roberson/run tough go
(7/28) Can QB Roberson finally rise to his talent?
(7/17) OL 4/5 back, interior good, OT ?. 1 portal
(3/26) QB Roberson (KSU) added, some depth
(3/26) RB Henderson (1k LY) back, some depth
(3/26) WR Snow back, have depth options for 2/3
(3/26) Def OK LY, inconsistent, returns a ton
(3/26) Only added 5 portals, QB, 2 LB, 2 DBs
(3/26) Lembo/staff incredible job LY 9-4, bowl W
(3/26) A lot returning in '25, must find a QB though

Buffalo Highlights
Buffalo is Undefeated at Home
Buffalo is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Buffalo does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#19)

Buffalo Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Buffalo defense is really good in red zone (#27)
Buffalo commits very few Penalties (#16)

Buffalo Deficiencies
Buffalo pass game is really bad (#113)
Buffalo Does Not Stuff Runs (#124)


  
Miami (OH)'s OC Patrick Welsh
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn (Tr)234058%334038.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dequan Finn (Tr)239814.339
Kenny Tracy122802.39
D'Shawntae Jones51913.85
Josh Ringer2402.04
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keith Reynolds (Tr)7120017.169
Kamryn Perry4108027.062
Cole Weaver444011.020
Lynel Billups-Williams222011.015

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster
Miami (OH)'s DC Bill Brechin
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Blakey181001
Silas Walters151102
Jackson Kuwatch131110
Adam Trick123211
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adam Trick123211
Nasir Washington32100
Jackson Kuwatch131110
Bai Jobe (Tr)11100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Silas Walters151102
Kaleb Martin90002
Eli Blakey181001

Buffalo's OC Dave Patenaude
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)508063%558527.0
Gunnar Gray1250%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Al-Jay Henderson5019834.038
Ta'Quan Roberson (Tr)2815825.640
James McNeil Jr.106616.626
Lamar Sperling135003.87
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow11168315.340
Nik McMillan10148114.838
Chance Morrow699116.526
Al-Jay Henderson108008.022

View Buffalo's Full Roster
Buffalo's DC Joe Bowen
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khalil Murdock323100
Miles Greer (Tr)221001
Dion Crawford200010
Solomon Brown180002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Saveon Brown133222
Khalil Murdock323100
Kobe Stewart62120
Junior Poyser41110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Saveon Brown133222
Solomon Brown180002
Jalen McNair151012