Georgia Southern at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Georgia Southern logo Georgia Southern Eagles at Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (9:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -2.5 (54.5) (-135)  Open: -2.5 | 54.5
Fresno State 42 - Georgia Southern: 14

 
Eagles (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Clay Helton (20 - 18)
Avg Score : 25 - 45 (17 - 51 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.3 - 7.7 (#110)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
Our Line: Fresno State -14.5   (SP+ FRES -13)
Projected Score: GASO: 22 - FRES: 37 (59)
FRES Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
GASO Travel: 2166 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (3 - 1) (3 - 1 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 20 (49 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 4.6 (#52)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Georgia Southern's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia Southern at Fresno State+2.554.5L 14 - 42ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia Southern at USC+29.061.5L 20 - 59ON
Sat 9/13 Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State-3.059.0W 41 - 34OY
Sat 9/20 Georgia Southern vs Maine-5.5
Sat 9/27 Georgia Southern at James Madison+24
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Georgia Southern vs Southern Miss+10.5
Sat 10/18 Georgia Southern vs Georgia State-5
Sat 10/25 Georgia Southern at Arkansas State+5
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 Georgia Southern at App State+10.5
Sat 11/15 Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina+1.5
Sat 11/22 Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion+14.5
Sat 11/29 Georgia Southern at Marshall+7

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule
Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Fresno State at Kansas+14.051.5L 7 - 31UN
Sat 8/30 Fresno State vs Georgia Southern-2.554.5W 42 - 14OY
Sat 9/6 Fresno State at Oregon State+1.045.5W 36 - 27OY
Sat 9/13 Fresno State vs Southern-37.551.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/20 Fresno State at Hawai'i-3.047.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Fresno State vs Nevada-13.5
Sat 10/11 Fresno State at Colorado State+1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Fresno State vs San Diego State-2
Sat 11/1 Fresno State at Boise State+13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Fresno State vs Wyoming-2
Sat 11/22 Fresno State vs Utah State-9
Sat 11/29 Fresno State at San José State-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GASO#125 ()36% (117)2543% (81)3.76 (12)14833% (116)1953.89 (74)#135 (.54)64% (136)4571% (136)59% (135)5.17 (125)4011.7
FRES#51 (.25)44% (64)35.344% (70)2.7 (97)20347% (47)1903.58 (90)#126 (.36)50% (125)19.846% (100)53% (129)4.75 (115)4520.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GASO#68 (.19)43% (65)46% (44)2.84 (101)12840% (85)2384.57 (17)#105 (.23)45% (108)47% (109)44% (102)3.81 (71)48.31.71.5
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GASO Offense3251736.2%3.891213431481954.636%62%43%33%15%
FRES Defense419.810.549.7%4.750.8 - - - - - 46%53%46%53%13%.36
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GASO Defense34550.564.4%5.171.7 - - - - - 54%44%71%59%8%.54
FRES Offense435.34943.9%3.582223932031905.855%42%44%47%17%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Georgia Southern327:052141%67%3.74011.740.3124
Fresno State430:332251%67%4.54520.84.81.5229.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GASO Offense336% (132)43% (81)32148.34.63 (95).11 (82)3.76 (12)100% (1)8% (58)0.64 (131)
FRES Defense446% (43)46% (100) - - - - .13 (95)3.28 (120)100% (127)7% (118)0.74 (22)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GASO Defense354% (101)71% (136) - - - - .48 (136)4.49 (136)89% (119)5% (132)0.99 (79)
FRES Offense455% (45)44% (70)35.32035.812 (3).13 (70)2.7 (97)75% (52)11% (107)1.25 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GASO Offense362% (7)33% (116)1932.3194.7610.36 (34)2 (60)-.03 (130)1.6 (41)36% (119)24% (114).22 (97)7% (102)2.1 (58)
FRES Defense453% (89)53% (129) - - - - - - 3 (28).55 (126)1.5 (71)32% (78)38% (120).45 (108)7% (45)1.8 (50)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GASO Defense344% (27)59% (135) - - - - - - 3 (28).8 (134)1.7 (111)17% (136)57% (136).79 (132)3% (116)1.6 (25)
FRES Offense442% (109)47% (47)1926189.57.3104 (72)5 (129).55 (19)1.7 (27)30% (63)45% (15).77 (12)6% (92)2.3 (22)

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -22.24 #136
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 6.65 #96
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 31.76 #136
2025 Talent Rating: 586.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Georgia Southern's 2025 Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7
Georgia Southern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4 #117
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #88
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #129

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -22.24   Fresno State: -3.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -13.4   Fresno State: -0.3




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -3.56 #109
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 7.37 #92
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 19.19 #115
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 45 PPG
Defense on Road: 50.5

Georgia Southern's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Fresno State 37
Georgia Southern 22


Total Points: 59

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 49
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 10.5

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Fresno State42Georgia Southern14Fresno StateFresno State -2.5Fresno State54.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State111 Overs
Georgia Southern000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#136) Georgia Southern Info
Power Rating: -22.24 #136
Offense Rating: 6.65 #96
Defense Rating: 31.76 #136
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #129
Talent Rating: 586.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 36%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Awful Pass Success 33%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Poor DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 64%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.17 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 71%
Awful Pass Def Success 59%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record on Road: 0 - 2 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Georgia Southern Notes
(8/1) Two West coast games to open. Impact?
(8/1) QB French way to many TOs under pressure LY
(8/1) QB/RB/WR combo great potential as tops in SBC
(8/1) DBs could be strong TY but F7 has lots of ?
(7/12) Helton QBs are historically TO prone
(4/7) WR Brown (Aub) impressive. QB as good depth
(3/24) QB French back. Helton (WKU) added
(3/24) RB Arnold, Mbadinga exp'd. Gibbs big croot
(3/24) WR Cobb/Dallas back (2/3 LY). Have depth
(3/24) OL 4/5 back, T Williams also exp'd. Looks good

Georgia Southern Highlights
Georgia Southern has a top Offensive Line (#12)
Georgia Southern commits very few Penalties (#16)
Georgia Southern defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Georgia Southern Deficiencies
Georgia Southern offense is really bad (#117)
Georgia Southern pass game is really bad (#116)
Georgia Southern Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Georgia Southern does not Sack the QB (#130)
Georgia Southern has a bad defense (#136)
Georgia Southern Does Not Stuff Runs (#135)
Georgia Southern has a bad defensive line (#136)
Georgia Southern has a bad red zone defense (#125)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFRESGASO
OverallOver#64#95
OffenseOff#30#58
DefenseDef#105#108
Special TeamsST#26#56
PassingPass#58#54
RushingRush#11#51
Run BlockRBLK#34#41
Pass BlockPBLK#24#23
Route RunningWR Rt#54#89
TacklingTkl#71#101
Run DefenseR Def#99#113
Pass Rush DefPRush#98#111
Coverage DefCov#109#64

Rematch from Week 1
Fresno State -2.5 (54.5)
Fresno State won vs Georgia Southern this year (42-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: GASO | FRES
Depth Chart: GASO | FRES
Rosters: GASO | FRES
(#109) Fresno State Info
Power Rating: -3.56 #109
Offense Rating: 7.37 #92
Defense Rating: 19.19 #115
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 7.4 - 4.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.58 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.75 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Awful Pass Def Success 53%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Fresno State Notes
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
(8/1) QB1 Warner out spring, Conklin (Sac St) added
(6/8) RB Donelson 33/263/8ypc last 3, came on late
(6/3) DE Foreman good, CB Hamilton is a great one
(5/23) DC Benedetto was great at NIU past 3 years
(5/12) Fresno will be physical, biggest spring takeaway

Fresno State Highlights
Fresno State is Undefeated at Home
Fresno State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Fresno State has Really Good Running Game (#5)
Fresno State offense is explosive (#18)
Fresno State offense is good on 3rd downs
Fresno State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Fresno State Deficiencies
Fresno State has a bad TO Margin (#131)
Fresno State Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Fresno State throws a Lot of Interceptions (#129)
Fresno State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#100)
Fresno State has a bad defense (#125)
Fresno State has a bad defensive line (#120)
Fresno State has a bad red zone defense (#115)


  
Georgia Southern's OC Ryan Aplin
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
JC French528760%528526.1
Turner Helton (Tr)4944%24002.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
OJ Arnold3321426.541
David Mbadinga238503.711
Jamarian Samuel772010.336
JC French204612.310
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Camden Brown (Tr)9163418.132
Dalen Cobb15154110.323
Marcus Sanders Jr.784012.018
Josh Dallas86808.517

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster
Georgia Southern's DC Brandon Bailey
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Tyson (Tr)301010
Brendan Harrington (Tr)190000
Jusfin Meyers170001
Ayden Jackson140010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Collier81100
Brandon Tyson (Tr)301010
Phillip Gladney20000
Antavious Murphy20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dorrian Smith41002
Jaquari Brown61002
Jusfin Meyers170001

Fresno State's OC Josh Davis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)719872%716457.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)5683%42007.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson5032526.557
Rayshon Luke (Tr)3622456.244
Elijah Gilliam1710125.925
Johnathan Arceneaux105415.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman11149013.530
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)1311008.517
Bryson Donelson887010.939
Rayshon Luke (Tr)128016.720

View Fresno State's Full Roster
Fresno State's DC Nick Benedetto
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)341001
Camryn Bracha182000
Finn Claypool (Tr)162211
Alzillion Hamilton150001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool (Tr)162211
Korey Foreman93200
Jayden Davis152120
Jahzon Jacks52120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jakari Embry60003
K'Vion Thunderbird (Tr)141013
Simeon Harris (Tr)122002