Georgia Southern at Fresno State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Georgia Southern Eagles at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (9:30 PM EDT)
Fresno State -2.5 (54.5) (-135) Open: -2.5 | 54.5
Fresno State 42 - Georgia Southern: 14

Eagles (7 - 6) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (20 - 18)
Avg Score : 28 - 32 (20 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)

Temp: 94.1° (23% Hum)
Our Line: Fresno State -10.5 (SP+ FRES -12)
Projected Score: GASO: 21 - FRES: 31 (52)
FRES Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
GASO Travel: 2166 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 4.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
GASO Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia Southern's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Georgia Southern at Fresno State	+2.5	54.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/6	Georgia Southern at USC	+29.0	61.5	L 20 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/13	Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State	-3.0	59.0	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Georgia Southern vs Maine	-22.0	57.5	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Georgia Southern at James Madison	+14.5	54.5	L 10 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9	Georgia Southern vs Southern Miss	+3.0	59.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Georgia Southern vs Georgia State	-6.5	58.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Georgia Southern at Arkansas State	-1.5	59.5	L 24 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	Georgia Southern at App State	+4.5	62.5	W 25 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina	-3.0	59.5	W 45 - 40	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion	+10.0	62.0	L 10 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/29	Georgia Southern at Marshall	+10.5	61.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Mon 12/29	Georgia Southern vs App State	-10.0	58.5	W 29 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule

Fresno State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Fresno State at Kansas	+14.0	51.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 8/30	Fresno State vs Georgia Southern	-2.5	54.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Fresno State at Oregon State	+1.0	45.5	W 36 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Fresno State vs Southern	-37.5	51.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Fresno State at Hawai'i	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Fresno State vs Nevada	-12.5	45.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Fri 10/10	Fresno State at Colorado State	-5.5	47.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Fresno State vs San Diego State	+3.0	46.5	L 0 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/1	Fresno State at Boise State	+17.5	47.5	W 30 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Fresno State vs Wyoming	-3.0	40.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Fresno State vs Utah State	-1.5	50.5	L 17 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/29	Fresno State at San José State	-3.5	46.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/27	Fresno State vs Miami (OH)	-5.0	41.0	W 18 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO	#39 (.21)	45% (41)	27.9	46% (43)	3.2 (22)	137	45% (36)	234	4.01 (40)	#133 (.3)	49% (133)	32.3	51% (134)	47% (125)	4.45 (130)	47.3	0.9	1.2
FRES	#105 (.11)	39% (110)	25.8	38% (120)	2.79 (101)	157	41% (78)	167	3.29 (111)	#40 (.1)	39% (32)	18.8	43% (77)	35% (14)	3.26 (34)	55.2	1.5	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GASO	#68 (.19)	43% (65)		46% (44)	2.84 (101)	128	40% (85)	238	4.57 (17)	#105 (.23)	45% (108)		47% (109)	44% (102)	3.81 (71)	48.3	1.7	1.5
FRES	#110 (.11)	39% (110)		38% (121)	2.73 (115)	101	41% (76)	242	3.68 (91)	#17 (.08)	40% (51)		43% (74)	38% (33)	3.63 (47)	55	1.3	1.5

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Offense	13	27.9	19.5	45%	4.01	0.9	20	371	137	234	4.2	49%	49%	46%	45%	14%	.21
FRES Defense	13	18.8	15.3	38.8%	3.26	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	35%	18%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GASO Defense	13	32.3	35.3	49.1%	4.45	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	51%	47%	15%	.3
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.5	38.6%	3.29	1.5	18	324	157	167	4.7	53%	45%	38%	41%	15%	.11

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia Southern	13	27:09	20.4	45%	53%	5	47.3	0.9	1.2	4.3	0.9	1	28.5
Fresno State	13	29:20	17.5	36%	40%	6	55.2	1.5	1.8	4.9	1.6	3	33.6

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Offense	13	49% (75)	46% (43)	32.5	136.7	4.2	16 (60)	.16 (45)	3.2 (22)	73% (60)	9% (54)	0.92 (87)
FRES Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (77)	-	-	-	-	.09 (62)	3 (93)	74% (92)	10% (66)	0.82 (8)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GASO Defense	13	51% (86)	51% (134)	-	-	-	-	.28 (135)	3.4 (134)	74% (88)	9% (83)	1.07 (116)
FRES Offense	13	53% (41)	38% (120)	33.3	157.1	4.7	22 (49)	.02 (114)	2.79 (101)	73% (59)	10% (86)	1.01 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Offense	13	49% (66)	45% (36)	19.6	31.1	233.8	7.5	11.9	25 (33)	8 (88)	.3 (48)	1.6 (64)	29% (38)	36% (20)	.46 (17)	5% (30)	2.1 (59)
FRES Defense	13	49% (75)	35% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	19 (12)	.14 (24)	1.6 (91)	33% (43)	27% (30)	.17 (24)	8% (12)	1.8 (14)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GASO Defense	13	47% (55)	47% (125)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (75)	.37 (117)	1.5 (54)	29% (105)	37% (133)	.36 (101)	6% (73)	1.8 (20)
FRES Offense	13	45% (99)	41% (78)	17.2	27	166.5	6.2	9.7	13 (75)	13 (127)	.25 (64)	1.5 (78)	33% (97)	30% (73)	.31 (70)	5% (48)	2 (86)

Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -11.87 #118
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 11.75 #53
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 23.62 #135
2025 Talent Rating: 586.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Georgia Southern's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Georgia Southern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.3 #111
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.1 #66
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #131

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -11.87 Fresno State: -1.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia Southern: -11.3 Fresno State: 1.1

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -1.295 #102
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 0.27 #127
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 8.96 #73
2025 Talent Rating: 684.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Fresno State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 4.5
Fresno State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.1 #67
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #96
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.5 #43

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.5
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Georgia Southern's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 31
Georgia Southern 21

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia Southern 26
Fresno State 21

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 30
Georgia Southern 20

Total Points: 50

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Fresno State	42	Georgia Southern	14	Fresno State -2.5	Fresno State	54.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	1	1	1 Overs
Georgia Southern	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#118) GASO at (#102) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GASO	FRES
Power RatePwr	#118	#102
SP+SP+	#111	#67
Perf GradeGrade	#112	#65
OffenseOff	#61	#72
DefenseDef	#134	#66
Spec TeamsST	#115	#31
TalentTal	#99	#80
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#88

Georgia Southern Notes(10/22) DL is statistically bottom 5 in CFB, line yds & havoc
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off Avg
(10/9) French 3 INT, team 12 flags, comeback short vs USM
(8/25) Will stay out West between @ Fresno & USC
(8/1) Two West coast games to open. Impact?
(8/1) QB French way to many TOs under pressure LY
(8/1) QB/RB/WR combo great potential as tops in SBC
(8/1) DBs could be strong TY but F7 has lots of ?
(7/12) Helton QBs are historically TO prone
(4/7) WR Brown (Aub) impressive. QB as good depth
(3/24) QB French back. Helton (WKU) added
(3/24) RB Arnold, Mbadinga exp'd. Gibbs big croot
Georgia Southern Injury Report

Fresno State Notes(10/28) QB Warner benched, Conklin was bad vs SDSU
(10/28) Entz says Conklin QB1 at least for now
(10/9) Off started out hot but cooled lately. QB Warner JAG
(9/23) LB Tim Thomas no longer with team
(9/23) OL has improved, run game good. Pass Off poor
(9/23) Def #'s really poor despite 4-1 start. On watch
(9/9) QB Warner brutal start, 0 TD - 5 INT
(9/1) OG C McHarg out for season (Sr, Starter)
(8/1) Def OK LY, lost a ton. 10 portals, 4 DL help
(8/1) OL returns 3/5, meh LY but 5 portal adds help
(8/1) OC Davis = slow ground combo spread & RPO
(8/1) Pass D good LY & DBs good, A Hamilton big keep
Fresno State Injury Report

Georgia Southern on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	FRES Def
Perf GradePerf	#61	#66
SuccessSuc	#41	#32
ExplosiveExp	#67	#20
PPAPPA	#39	#40
PowerPwr	#53	#73
SP+SP+	#66	#43
Pts POPPO	#40	#34
HavocHav	#44	#32

Georgia Southern Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	#71	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#77
Run ExplRExp	#87	#8
PPAExp	#45	#62
Run BlockR Blk	#61	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#93
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#50
TackleTak	-	#98

Georgia Southern Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat	GASO Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	#75	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	#36	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#64	#91
PPAExp	#48	#24
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#20	#62
F7 HavocF7	#54	#66
DB HavocDB	#30	#12

Fresno State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	GASO Def
Perf GradePerf	#72	#134
SuccessSuc	#110	#133
ExplosiveExp	#55	#82
PPAPPA	#105	#133
PowerPwr	#127	#135
SP+SP+	#96	#131
Pts POPPO	#111	#130
HavocHav	#65	#84

Fresno State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	GASO Def
Run GameRun	#34	#136
Run SuccessRSuc	#120	#134
Run ExplRExp	#51	#116
PPAExp	#114	#135
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	#101	#134
Stuff RateStuff	#91	#116
TackleTak	-	#79

Fresno State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	GASO Def
Pass GamePass	#91	#81
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	#125
Pass ExplPExl	#78	#54
PPAExp	#64	#117
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#21	#133
F7 HavocF7	#86	#83
DB HavocDB	#48	#73

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

GASO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 94° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Fresno State -2.5 (54.5)
Fresno State won vs Georgia Southern this year (42-14)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

GASO's OC Ryan Aplin (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
JC French	231	365	63%	2753	19	8	7.5
Turner Helton (Tr)	14	26	54%	74	1	0	2.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
OJ Arnold	133	885	5	6.7	62
JC French	121	277	6	2.3	21
David Mbadinga	49	196	1	4.0	16
Taeo Todd	26	102	0	3.9	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Camden Brown (Tr)	63	1049	14	16.7	73
Marcus Sanders Jr.	45	725	4	16.1	52
Dalen Cobb	52	471	3	9.1	43
OJ Arnold	17	201	1	11.8	41

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jusfin Meyers	82	1	1	5
Brandon Tyson (Tr)	79	2	6	2
Brendan Harrington (Tr)	77	2	0	3
Ayden Jackson	71	4	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MJ Stroud	31	15	7	6	2
Caleb Moore (Tr)	21	3	2	2	1
CJ Allen	16	2	1	1	0
Devin Collier	20	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tracy Hill Jr.	39	4	1	0	6
Jusfin Meyers	82	1	0	1	5
Elijah McDowell	8	0	0	0	4

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)	193	278	69%	2025	13	11	7.3
Carson Conklin (Tr)	47	96	49%	354	1	2	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	110	699	6	6.4	69
Bryson Donelson	142	583	5	4.1	57
Brandon Ramirez	60	271	3	4.5	19
Johnathan Arceneaux	40	267	2	6.7	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josiah Freeman	52	642	6	12.3	51
Richie Anderson	32	321	3	10.0	25
Ezekiel Avit (Tr)	28	255	0	9.1	41
Rayshon Luke (Tr)	36	228	2	6.3	23

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jadon Pearson (Tr)	96	6	0	1	3
Simeon Harris (Tr)	53	7	1	0	5
Camryn Bracha	52	3	0	0	4
Finn Claypool (Tr)	41	11	7	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Finn Claypool (Tr)	41	11	7	4	1
Korey Foreman	19	6	4	2	2
Jahzon Jacks	32	7	4	3	0
Deijon Laffitte	27	5	3	0	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jakari Embry	26	0	0	0	7
Simeon Harris (Tr)	53	7	1	0	5
Alzillion Hamilton	34	2	0	1	5