Northern Illinois at Fresno State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Northern Illinois logo Northern Illinois Huskies vs Fresno State BulldogsFresno State logo
Monday, December 23rd 2024 (2:30 PM EST)
Northern Illinois -2 (41.0) (-125)  Open: 0.0
Northern Illinois 28 - Fresno State: 20  (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)

 
Huskies (8 - 5) (5 - 6 - 2)
Coach Thomas Hammock (24 - 33)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (21 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Northern Illinois -2  (SP+ NIU -0.5)

Projected Score: NIU: 24 - FRES: 22 (46)
NIU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
NIU Travel: 1389 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Tedford (45 - 22)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois-36.555.5W 54 - 15OY
Sat 9/7 Northern Illinois at Notre Dame+28.546.5W 16 - 14UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Northern Illinois vs Buffalo-13.042.5L 20 - 23ON
Sat 9/28 Northern Illinois at NC State+7.046.0L 17 - 24UY
Sat 10/5 Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts-14.041.0W 34 - 20ON
Sat 10/12 Northern Illinois at Bowling Green+3.046.5W 17 - 7UY
Sat 10/19 Northern Illinois vs Toledo-3.042.5L 6 - 13UN
Sat 10/26 Northern Illinois at Ball State-13.547.5L 23 - 25ON
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan-2.551.5W 42 - 28OY
Wed 11/13 Northern Illinois vs Akron-14.043.5W 29 - 16ON
Tue 11/19 Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)+1.543.0L 9 - 20UN
Sat 11/30 Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan-16.541.5W 24 - 16UN
Mon 12/23 Northern Illinois vs Fresno State-2.041.0W 28 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule
Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Fresno State at Michigan+21.048.0L 10 - 30UY
Sat 9/7 Fresno State vs Sacramento State-18.555.5W 46 - 30ON
Sat 9/14 Fresno State vs New Mexico State-19.548.5W 48 - 0UY
Sat 9/21 Fresno State at New Mexico-12.061.0W 38 - 21UY
Sat 9/28 Fresno State at UNLV+2.551.0L 14 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Fresno State vs Washington State+3.560.5L 17 - 25UN
Fri 10/18 Fresno State at Nevada-3.050.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 10/26 Fresno State vs San José State-6.555.0W 33 - 10UY
Sat 11/2 Fresno State vs Hawai'i-12.045.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 11/9 Fresno State at Air Force-9.540.5L 28 - 36ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Fresno State vs Colorado State-3.543.5W 28 - 22OY
Sat 11/30 Fresno State at UCLA+7.546.5L 13 - 20UY
Mon 12/23 Fresno State vs Northern Illinois+2.041.0L 20 - 28ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU#86 (.16)42% (79)24.544% (72)3.25 (33)20440% (86)1793.39 (113)#11 (.06)38% (19)18.541% (52)35% (9)3.08 (12)42.81.21.1
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)26.138% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)24.843% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU#86 (.16)42% (79)44% (72)3.25 (33)20440% (86)1793.39 (113)#11 (.06)38% (19)41% (52)35% (9)3.08 (12)42.81.21.1
FRES#110 (.11)39% (110)38% (121)2.73 (115)10141% (76)2423.68 (91)#17 (.08)40% (51)43% (74)38% (33)3.63 (47)551.31.5



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Offense1324.520.742.1%3.391.2213832041794.859%41%44%40%15%.16
FRES Defense1324.81840.3%3.631.5 - - - - - 49%51%43%38%14%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Defense1318.519.737.7%3.081.1 - - - - - 49%51%41%35%17%.06
FRES Offense1326.13239.2%3.681.3193431012423.442%57%38%41%14%.11

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northern Illinois1333:2021.542%45%4.242.81.21.15.42.5130.4
Fresno State1327:2918.939%42%6.2551.31.54.41.5230.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Offense1359% (11)44% (72)42.8204.24.822 (55).14 (66)3.25 (33)72% (83)9% (60)1 (54)
FRES Defense1349% (49)43% (74) - - - - .08 (48)2.94 (56)71% (56)8% (121)0.81 (7)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Defense1349% (44)41% (52) - - - - .08 (45)3.06 (79)74% (73)11% (53)0.9 (33)
FRES Offense1342% (115)38% (121)29.2100.73.421 (59).04 (111)2.73 (115)69% (96)8% (34)0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Offense1341% (124)40% (86)16.528.5179.16.310.816 (87)8 (40).23 (84)1.6 (58)31% (68)30% (89).17 (117)5% (39)1.9 (116)
FRES Defense1351% (86)38% (33) - - - - - - 15 (18).09 (14)1.5 (34)30% (94)29% (37).2 (28)6% (65)2 (52)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Defense1351% (93)35% (9) - - - - - - 9 (76).04 (4)1.5 (55)36% (15)25% (10).18 (16)7% (37)2 (67)
FRES Offense1357% (21)41% (76)2333.1242.17.310.520 (58)14 (115).21 (89)1.6 (65)33% (95)28% (103).24 (100)6% (64)2.1 (63)

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -2.77  #73
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 16.86  #97
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 2.99  #11
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #102
Northern Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Northern Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5  #84
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #115
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #32

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -2.77   Fresno State: -5.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -3.5   Fresno State: -3.8




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -5.1  #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89  #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00  #33
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8  #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6  #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.7

Northern Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 2
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Northern Illinois 24
Fresno State 22


Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Northern Illinois 30
Fresno State 26

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Fresno State 24
Northern Illinois 22

Total Points: 46
Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202412/23Fresno State20Northern Illinois28Northern Illinois -2Northern Illinois41.0Over
201012/18Fresno State17Northern Illinois40
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State001 Overs
Northern Illinois210 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams2 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

Northern Illinois Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Potato Bowl Northern Illinois vs Fresno State-2.041.0W 28 - 20
2023Camellia Bowl Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State+2.554.0W 21 - 19
2021Cure Bowl Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina+11.063.0L 41 - 47
2018Raton Bowl Northern Illinois vs UAB+1.041.5L 13 - 37
Fresno State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Potato Bowl Fresno State vs Northern Illinois+2.041.0L 20 - 28
2023Mexico Bowl Fresno State vs New Mexico State+3.052.5W 37 - 10
2022La Bowl Fresno State vs Washington State-5.554.0W 29 - 6
2021Mexico Bowl Fresno State vs UTEP-11.551.5W 31 - 24
2018Vegas Bowl Fresno State vs Arizona State-6.054.0W 31 - 20
  
(#73) NIU at (#87) FRES
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNIUFRES
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #73 #87
SP+SP+ #84 #85
Perf GradeGrade #51 #87
OffenseOff #80 #74
DefenseDef #24 #88
Spec TeamsST #38 #130
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #102 #82
Northern Illinois Notes
(11/18) Rgame mauled Akron, QB meh, Run Def great
(11/8) Off healthy & improved. Rgame/QB Hampton good
(11/7) Owned WMU. Big plays, caused TO's, KR TD
(10/20) Near 400 yds and only 6 pts (Tol)? 4-19 3rd bad
(10/18) Def ranks top 25 in 13 diff stats, #4 in ypg (253)
(10/18) Great 3rd down Def 20% (#1) & Off 48% (#22)
(10/18) New QB Holst v mobile, cannot pass from pocket
(10/14) QB Hampton left BG game (concussion)
(10/13) DL mauled BGU. 5 sacks, hurt QB. Great Def
(10/4) Best Def in MAC? Off #'s awful so far, check back
(9/28) Def held NC St to 171 yds but 4 TOs killed them
(9/8) Outgained ND 388-286, best W of CFB, Def v good?
Northern Illinois Injury Report
Fresno State Notes
(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best
Fresno State Injury Report
Northern Illinois on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
NIU OffFRES Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #80 #88
SuccessSuc #79 #51
ExplosiveExp #96 #13
PPAPPA #86 #17
PowerPwr #97 #33
SP+SP+ #115 #77
Pts POPPO #113 #47
HavocHav #44 #113
Northern Illinois Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
NIU OffFRES Def
Run GameRun #90 #87
Run SuccessRSuc #72 #74
Run ExplRExp #54 #7
PPAExp #66 #48
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLY #33 #56
Stuff RateStuff #14 #65
TackleTak -  #79
Northern Illinois Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
NIU OffFRES Def
Pass GamePass #110 #57
Pass SuccessPSuc #86 #33
Pass ExplPExl #58 #34
PPAExp #84 #14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #58 #105
F7 HavocF7 #60 #121
DB HavocDB #39 #65
Fresno State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatFRES OffNIU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #74 #24
SuccessSuc #110 #19
ExplosiveExp #38 #37
PPAPPA #110 #11
PowerPwr #95 #11
SP+SP+ #85 #32
Pts POPPO #91 #12
HavocHav #34 #48
Fresno State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
FRES OffNIU Def
Run GameRun #117 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #52
Run ExplRExp #76 #33
PPAExp #111 #45
Run BlockR Blk #38 -
OL YdsOLY #115 #79
Stuff RateStuff #85 #104
TackleTak -  #3
Fresno State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatFRES OffNIU Def
Pass GamePass #54 #32
Pass SuccessPSuc #76 #9
Pass ExplPExl #65 #55
PPAExp #89 #4
Pass Block/RushP Blk #73 #73
F7 HavocF7 #34 #53
DB HavocDB #64 #37
Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

NIU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 46°
Rematch from Week 1
Northern Illinois 2.0 (41.0)
Northern Illinois won at Fresno State this year (28-20)

Previous Matchups
Northern Illinois beat Fresno State last year (28-20)

  
NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Hampton14324558%16081266.6
Josh Holst6511159%593225.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Gavin Williams13974945.471
Antario Brown11556744.949
Telly Johnson Jr.10348044.738
Josh Holst4923014.722
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trayvon Rudolph37403110.948
Cam Thompson27388314.454
Grayson Barnes31338410.960
Andrew McElroy (Tr)26264010.242

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Fuhrman (Tr)614011
Jaden Dolphin613002
Santana Banner542014
Nate Valcarcel532248
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devonte O'Malley3812941
Roy Williams387711
Nevaeh Sanders85520
Skyler Gill-Howard487540
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nate Valcarcel532248
Jacob Finley363108
Santana Banner542014

FRES's OC Pat McCann (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mikey Keene27639270%288718117.4
Joshua Wood182864%195117.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Donelson7847236.143
Elijah Gilliam12146683.924
Malik Sherrod6019643.348
Joshua Wood3711863.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mac Dalena60998816.675
Jalen Moss49582411.949
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)51523310.338
Elijah Gilliam3220406.471

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Kevin Coyle (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tuasivi Nomura1027003
Malachi Langley733370
Dean Clark563224
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malachi Langley733370
Dean Clark563224
Phoenix Jackson455254
Korey Foreman (Tr)235241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alzillion Hamilton5051112
Cameron Lockridge372006
Phoenix Jackson455254