Northern Illinois at Fresno State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Northern Illinois Huskies vs Fresno State Bulldogs

Monday, December 23rd 2024 (2:30 PM EST)
Northern Illinois -2 (41.0) (-125) Open: 0.0
Northern Illinois 28 - Fresno State: 20 (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)

Huskies (8 - 5) (5 - 6 - 2)
Coach Thomas Hammock (24 - 33)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (21 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Northern Illinois -2 (SP+ NIU -0.5)
Projected Score: NIU: 23 - FRES: 21 (47)
NIU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
NIU Travel: 1682 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Tim Skipper (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
NIU Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northern Illinois's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Northern Illinois vs Western Illinois	-36.5	55.5	W 54 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Northern Illinois at Notre Dame	+28.5	46.5	W 16 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Northern Illinois vs Buffalo	-13.0	42.5	L 20 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/28	Northern Illinois at NC State	+7.0	46.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts	-14.0	41.0	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 10/12	Northern Illinois at Bowling Green	+3.0	46.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Northern Illinois vs Toledo	-3.0	42.5	L 6 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/26	Northern Illinois at Ball State	-13.5	47.5	L 23 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/6	Northern Illinois at Western Michigan	-2.5	51.5	W 42 - 28	O	Y
Wed 11/13	Northern Illinois vs Akron	-14.0	43.5	W 29 - 16	O	N
Tue 11/19	Northern Illinois at Miami (OH)	+1.5	43.0	L 9 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/30	Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan	-16.5	41.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
Mon 12/23	Northern Illinois vs Fresno State	-2.0	41.0	W 28 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule

Fresno State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Fresno State at Michigan	+21.0	48.0	L 10 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-18.5	55.5	W 46 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/14	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	-19.5	48.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Fresno State at New Mexico	-12.0	61.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Fresno State at UNLV	+2.5	51.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Fresno State vs Washington State	+3.5	60.5	L 17 - 25	U	N
Fri 10/18	Fresno State at Nevada	-3.0	50.0	W 24 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Fresno State vs San José State	-6.5	55.0	W 33 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Fresno State vs Hawai'i	-12.0	45.5	L 20 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/9	Fresno State at Air Force	-9.5	40.5	L 28 - 36	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-3.5	43.5	W 28 - 22	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Fresno State at UCLA	+7.5	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Mon 12/23	Fresno State vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	41.0	L 20 - 28	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	#54 (.21)	42% (62)	24.5	45% (45)	3.21 (50)	180	40% (85)	190	3.4 (102)	#36 (.14)	41% (52)	18.5	44% (84)	37% (21)	3.4 (32)	39.8	1.4	1.2
FRES	#51 (.22)	44% (48)	26.1	40% (103)	2.97 (95)	106	47% (24)	281	4.21 (36)	#66 (.18)	41% (60)	24.8	42% (62)	41% (64)	3.31 (20)	39.8	1.1	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Offense	13	24.5	20.7	42.4%	3.4	1.4	19	370	180	190	5	54%	46%	45%	40%	15%	.21
FRES Defense	13	24.8	18	41.5%	3.31	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	42%	41%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Defense	13	18.5	19.7	40.7%	3.4	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	37%	13%	.14
FRES Offense	13	26.1	32	43.8%	4.21	1.1	21	388	106	281	3.8	37%	62%	40%	47%	15%	.22

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northern Illinois	13	31:30	18.7	42%	50%	4.5	39.8	1.4	1.2	4.1	1.7	1	27.5
Fresno State	13	29:21	20.9	48%	64%	4.4	39.8	1.1	1.8	5.5	2.2	1	31.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Offense	13	54% (39)	45% (45)	35.8	179.8	5	23 (46)	.21 (36)	3.21 (50)	77% (36)	9% (47)	1.08 (29)
FRES Defense	13	53% (105)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.13 (61)	3.16 (84)	68% (42)	9% (95)	0.91 (30)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Defense	13	56% (122)	44% (84)	-	-	-	-	.14 (69)	3.29 (108)	83% (118)	8% (114)	0.94 (37)
FRES Offense	13	37% (129)	40% (103)	28.4	106.5	3.8	16 (89)	.14 (77)	2.97 (95)	74% (70)	8% (28)	1.01 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Offense	13	46% (95)	40% (85)	16.2	28.2	189.8	6.7	11.7	15 (96)	9 (40)	.26 (75)	1.5 (96)	32% (64)	26% (106)	.29 (83)	6% (63)	2.3 (16)
FRES Defense	13	46% (28)	41% (64)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.3 (90)	1.7 (93)	32% (60)	33% (106)	.34 (84)	7% (44)	2 (44)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Defense	13	43% (12)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.17 (18)	1.4 (14)	32% (66)	24% (9)	.29 (55)	5% (115)	2.2 (109)
FRES Offense	13	62% (5)	47% (24)	25.8	39.6	281.3	7.1	10.9	29 (18)	12 (85)	.3 (65)	1.5 (118)	31% (49)	38% (10)	.43 (37)	7% (93)	1.8 (125)

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 16.86 #97
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 2.99 #11
2024 Talent Rating: 538.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Northern Illinois's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Northern Illinois's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #84
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #115
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #32

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 514.62
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -2.77 Fresno State: -5.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -3.5 Fresno State: -3.8

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -5.1 #87
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 540.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Fresno State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Fresno State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.7

Northern Illinois's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 2
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Northern Illinois 23
Fresno State 21

Projected Total Points: 47

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Fresno State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/23	Fresno State	20	Northern Illinois	28	Northern Illinois	Northern Illinois -2	Northern Illinois	41.0	Over
2010	12/18	Fresno State	17	Northern Illinois	40	Northern Illinois

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	0	0	1 Overs
Northern Illinois	2	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

Northern Illinois Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Potato Bowl	Northern Illinois vs Fresno State	-2.0	41.0	W 28 - 20
2023	Camellia Bowl	Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State	+2.5	54.0	W 21 - 19
2021	Cure Bowl	Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina	+11.0	63.0	L 41 - 47
2018	Raton Bowl	Northern Illinois vs UAB	+1.0	41.5	L 13 - 37

Fresno State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Potato Bowl	Fresno State vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	41.0	L 20 - 28
2023	Mexico Bowl	Fresno State vs New Mexico State	+3.0	52.5	W 37 - 10
2022	La Bowl	Fresno State vs Washington State	-5.5	54.0	W 29 - 6
2021	Mexico Bowl	Fresno State vs UTEP	-11.5	51.5	W 31 - 24
2018	Vegas Bowl	Fresno State vs Arizona State	-6.0	54.0	W 31 - 20

(#73) Northern Illinois Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.77 #73
Offense Rating: 16.86 #97
Defense Rating: 2.99 #11
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #84
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #115
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #32
Talent Rating: 538.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.39 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 40%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.08 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 35%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Northern Illinois has played in 3 Bowls in the last 5 years (2 - 1)
Northern Illinois has played in 15 Bowls since 2000 (5 - 10)

Northern Illinois Notes
(11/8) Off healthy & improved. Rgame/QB Hampton good
(11/7) Owned WMU. Big plays, caused TO's, KR TD
(10/20) Near 400 yds and only 6 pts (Tol)? 4-19 3rd bad
(10/18) Def ranks top 25 in 13 diff stats, #4 in ypg (253)
(10/18) Great 3rd down Def 20% (#1) & Off 48% (#22)
(10/18) New QB Holst v mobile, cannot pass from pocket
(10/14) QB Hampton left BG game (concussion)
(10/13) DL mauled BGU. 5 sacks, hurt QB. Great Def
(10/4) Best Def in MAC? Off #'s awful so far, check back
(9/28) Def held NC St to 171 yds but 4 TOs killed them

Northern Illinois Ratings Matchup Fresno State

Power #73

#87

Off #97

#95

Def #11

#33

Talent #89

#88

SP+ #84

#85

SP+ Off #115

#85

SP+ Def #32

#77

Rematch from Week 1
Northern Illinois 2.0 (41.0)
Northern Illinois won at Fresno State this year (28-20)

Previous Matchups
Northern Illinois beat Fresno State last year (28-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 46°

Team Information
Injuries: NIU | FRES
Depth Chart: NIU | FRES
Rosters: NIU | FRES

(#87) Fresno State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.1 #87
Offense Rating: 16.89 #95
Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #85
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #77
Talent Rating: 540.00 #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Fresno State has played in 4 Bowls in the last 5 years (3 - 1)
Fresno State has played in 19 Bowls since 2000 (9 - 10)

Fresno State Notes
(12/10) Hired HC Matt Entz (USC LB, NDSU HC 19-23)
(11/3) Bad L (Haw), Keene was bad, Rgame was abysmal
(10/27) Momentum w/ 2 W's, 12-19 on 3rd vs SJSU
(10/27) QB Keene too many INTs, has WRs. Rgame awful
(10/4) Rgame bottom CFB, OL yds, success awful.
(9/28) Run O abysmal, Run D torched (UNLV). Keene good
(7/30) HC Tedford resigned, AHC Skipper Int coach in '24
(7/30) QB Keene back (Best in MW), WR should be good
(7/30) OL has 4/5 back, RB Sherrod one of G5 best

Northern Illinois's OC Wesley Beschorner

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Hampton	143	245	58%	1608	12	6	6.6
Josh Holst	65	111	59%	593	2	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Telly Johnson Jr.	103	480	4	4.7	38
Josh Holst	49	230	1	4.7	22
Jaylen Poe	36	190	3	5.3	22
Trayvon Rudolph	14	179	2	12.8	60

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trayvon Rudolph	37	403	1	10.9	48
Cam Thompson	27	388	3	14.4	54
Grayson Barnes	31	338	4	10.9	60
Andrew McElroy (Tr)	26	264	0	10.2	42

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

Northern Illinois's DC Nick Benedetto

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Fuhrman (Tr)	61	4	0	1	1
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4
Skyler Gill-Howard	48	7	5	4	0
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1
Nevaeh Sanders	8	5	5	2	0
Skyler Gill-Howard	48	7	5	4	0
Raishein Thomas	12	2	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Finley	36	3	1	0	8
Santana Banner	54	2	0	1	4
Amariyun Knighten	13	0	0	1	2

Fresno State's OC Pat McCann

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mikey Keene	276	392	70%	2887	18	11	7.4
Joshua Wood	18	28	64%	195	1	1	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Donelson	78	472	3	6.1	43
Elijah Gilliam	121	466	8	3.9	24
Malik Sherrod	60	196	4	3.3	48
Joshua Wood	37	118	6	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Moss	49	582	4	11.9	49
Raylen Sharpe (Tr)	51	523	3	10.3	38
Elijah Gilliam	32	204	0	6.4	71
Richie Anderson	17	147	0	8.6	18

View Fresno State's Full Roster

Fresno State's DC Kevin Coyle

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Jayden Davis	46	1	0	0	2
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Kosi Agina	38	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Korey Foreman (Tr)	23	5	2	4	1
Jacob Holmes	17	3	2	3	0
Sione Noa	15	3	2	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alzillion Hamilton	50	5	1	1	12
Phoenix Jackson	45	5	2	5	4
Julian Neal	32	4	1	0	4